Hottest Holiday Toys - Deborah Weinswig · 12/9/2016 · retailers’ lists, we offer our picks for toys we think will be the most popular during the 2016 holiday period: Individual
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D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G M a n a g i n g D i r e c t o r ,
F u n g G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m
U S : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7 H K : 8 5 2 . 6 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 9
C N : 8 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0 . 3 0 1 6
1) The toys and traditional games market is showing stronggrowth.BetweenJanuaryandSeptember2016,thismarketgrew by 6% in the US, according to NPD, and it forecasts6.5% growth for 2016—which suggests year-over-yeargrowthshouldaccelerateinthefinalquarter.IntheUK,themarketgrewby5%inthesameperiod.
Thetoysandtraditionalgamesmarketisshowingstronggrowth.Inthefirstnine months of 2016, this market grew by 6% in the US, according tomarket-researchfirmTheNPDGroup,anditforecaststotalgrowthof6.5%for 2016—which suggests year-over-year growth should accelerate in thefinalquarter.TheUKsawthemarketgrowby5%yearoveryearinthesameperiod.
In 2015, US consumers spent about $25 billion on toys and traditionalgames,up6.7%yearoveryear,accordingtoNPD.ThiscomparestoBritishshopperswhospentabout£3.2billion($4.9billion),up5.9%yearoveryear.
According to NPD, sales of connected toys—those that can connect toanotherdeviceandlearnachild’spreferences—saw96%growthintheUSinthe12monthsendedSeptember30,2016.Amongtoysbasedonlicensedproperty, entertainment and characters comprised the largest category,accounting for 74% of total sales in 2014, according to the InternationalLicensingIndustryMerchandisers’Association(LIMA).
5) FurrypettoysBased on our research and the frequency of appearances in variousretailers’lists,weofferourpicksfortoyswethinkwillbethemostpopularduringthe2016holidayperiod:
Little did Wilson know that simple toys would get a high-tech makeoveroverthenexthalfacenturyorso.Andthat“MomandDad(maynot)hardlywait for school to start again”, as these high-tech toys can even imparteducationandteachskillstochildrenwhiletheyplay.
Toys and games are a major element of holiday-season gifting. In thisreport, we focus on the US and the UK, looking at the scale of the toyindustry,considersomeofthelatesttrendsthataredrivingsalesandcouldinfluence holiday toy-gifting, and run down a list of the top toys for theseasonprovidedbyvariousretailersandtoyretailerassociations.
TheToyStory
Thetoysandgamesmarkets in theUSandtheUKarenot justvery large,theyaregrowingquickly,too.
NPDforecaststhismarketwillgrowby6.5%intheUSin2016.Ithasalreadygrown 6% between January and September 2016—suggesting growthshouldaccelerateinthefinalquarter.Duringthisperiod,gamesandpuzzlessawthehighestgrowth(+16%), followedbyactionfiguresandaccessories(+12%)anddolls(+12%).
IntheUK,thetoysandgamesmarketgrewby5%inthefirstninemonthsof2016,accordingtoNPD.Thefastest-growingUKcategoryduringthisperiodwas games and puzzles (+15%), followed by soft toys (+12%) and dolls
(+9%). The group forecastsUK toy saleswill exceed 400million units thisyear,withalmostone-thirdof theexpected£3.3billion ($5.0billion)2016revenuetoberecordedduringtheholidayseason.NPDexpectsshopperstospendanaverageof£105($131)perchildduringthefestiveperiod.
In 2015, US consumers spent about $25 billion on toys and traditionalgames,upasolid6.7%yearoveryear,accordingtoNPD.ThiscomparestoBritishshopperswhospentabout£3.2billion($4.9billion),withsalesuparobust5.9%yearoveryear.Together,thesetwocountriesrepresentedover40%of theglobal toysandgamesmarket in2015,weestimate fromNPDdata.
THEMESTHATWILLINFLUENCETOYGIFTINGGamesandtoysmaybeproducedforandmarketedtochildrenandyouthprimarily, but parents are the decision-makers for the most part. Theirbeliefsandopinionsgreatlyinfluencethechoiceoftoysandgamestheybuyfortheirchildren.Webelievethefollowingfivethemeswill impactholidaytoypurchasesthisseason:
We discuss these themes below, with a focus on the first two: the first(smart and connected play) is new and growing quickly; and the second(filmfranchisescontinuetorule)issubstantialinsize.
Smartandconnected toys—those that canconnect toanotherdeviceandlearn the child’s preferences—are quickly gaining traction. Sales ofconnected toys saw 96% growth in the US, in the 12 months endedSeptember30,2016,accordingtoNPD.
This categoryhasbeen invoking interest fromparentsand investorsalike.AngelList—a US website that brings together startups, investors and job-seekers—alone lists 349 startups that make innovative toys, with anaveragevaluationof$4.4million,asofNovember24,2016.Basedonthesenumbers,toystartupsintheUShavereceivedalmost$1.5billioninfundingto date. In addition, research from Tandem Capital, using data from CBInsights and CrunchBase, indicates that venture-capital funding inconnectedtoysrosefrom$6.6millionin2011to$104.3millionin2015.
Anki has created two products, a robot car-racing game called OverdriveandarobottruckcalledCozmo.
Anki Overdrive: This robot car-racing game allows players to build theirown tracksandusea smartphoneapp to customize the functionsof theircars.Periodicsoftwareupdatesprovidenewfunctionsandallowplayerstoupgradetheircars’capabilitiesastheyplay.
The “launch bundle” with 14 track pieces, two cars and four accessoriesretailsat$184.99,asofNovember25,2016.
Cozmo:This robot truckallowschildren tocontrol itsmovements throughtheappandevenseetheworld“thewayCozmoseesit,”throughitsbuilt-incamera. The Cozmo pack comeswith four cubes, which form part of thegamesthechildcanplaywiththerobot.
Cozmoretailsfor$149.99asofNovember25,2016.
VC funding in connected toysrosefrom$6.6millionin2011to$104.3millionin2015.
Cubetto,fromPrimoToys,isagamethatteacheschildrentocode.Thetoyis meant to help children that cannot yet read or write to learn codingwithout the use of a screen. The set consists of a wooden cube-shapedrobot,aboard,woodencubesthatcanplacedontheboard,amatfortherobot to move around on and an activity book. Each block denotes acommandinasimpleprogramminglanguage(likeLOGO)suchasright,leftorforward—thechildneedstoplacetheseblocksontheboardtomovetherobotaroundonthemat.
Cubettowasavailablefor$225onNovember25,2016.
ToymakerFisher-Pricehasalso createda similar toy called theThink-And-LearnCode-A-Pillar,whichhasre-arrangeableblocksthatformitsbodyanddetermine the way it moves. This toy is on the British Toy RetailerAssociation’s(TRA)top12“DreamToys”for2016holidaygifting.
While Primo Toys’ Cubetto ismore focusedon the child’s learning, Anki’sproducts help the players experience the dynamic capabilities of a virtualgameinaphysicalgame,unlikeconventionalvehicleandtracksets.
2.FilmFranchisesContinuetoRule
Many children and fans ofmovies or TV series enjoy seeing their favoritecharacterscometolifeandbecomeapartoftheirworld.Thishasledtotheriseofalucrativesegmentinthelicensingbusiness.
Merchandisebasedonentertainmentandcharactersaccountedfor33%oftotal licensed merchandise sales in the US, in 2014, according to LIMA.Among toys based on licensed property, entertainment and characterscomprised the largest category, accounting for74%of total sales in2014,LIMAsaid.Parents’preferencesmayhavehadaroletoplayindrivingsalesinthissegment.Inresearchontoy-shoppingbehaviorconductedbymarketresearch firm Field Agent earlier this year, some 67% of US parentsindicatedtheythoughtthetoyfranchiseismoreimportantthanthebrand.
StarWarshasbeenaperennialfavoriteamongmoviefans,andithasbeenthe leading movie by sales of its licensed merchandise, according tofinancialnewswebsiteInsiderMonkey.SincethelastmovieinthefranchisewasreleasedinDecember2015,webelieveStarWarstoyswillcontinuetoremain popular through this holiday season aswell. Topholiday toys listsfromWalmartandAmazon intheUS,andtheTRAandHamleys intheUKfeatureStarWarstoys.
Toys based on other franchise classics from companies such asDreamWorks,Disney,MarvelandDCComicsalsoappearconsistentlyintoptoys lists.With the forthcoming release of the new DisneymovieMoanaandDreamWorks’Trolls,andwithMarvel’sCaptainAmerica:CivilWarandDC Comics’ Batman vs Superman and Suicide Squad released earlier thisyear, toysbasedon the central charactersof thesemovies areon severalretailers’lists.
The active living and fitness trend among parents is likely to drive thepurchaseof“active”toysandgamesfortheirchildren.Twosuchtoysinthissegment are theVTechKidiZoomActionCam,which is similar to aGoProCam used by outdoor activity enthusiasts, and the VTech Smartwatch,which teaches children to tell the time. Both items track steps and setfitnesschallenges.
4.MiniToyCollectibles
Aprominentfeatureinmanyofthetoptoyslistsisminitoycollectibles.TheShopkinssethasbeenoneofthemostpopular intheminitoycollectiblescategory,sinceitslaunchin2013.Thedollsandtoysarebasedongrocery-store items and have since led to the creation of books, trading cards, aYouTubechannelandevenamoviebasedonthecharacters.
5.FurryPetToys
Amongthefurrypettoytrends,theonethathasbeenattractingthemostattentionsofararetheHatchimalstoys.Thetoycomesencasedinaplasticegg which the owner needs to rub and nurture, and “when the time isright,” the egg hatches to reveal a furry baby animal. The child can thenteachtheanimaltowalk,talkanddotricksasitgrows.Manyretailershavereported that the toy is already sold out.While these generally retail forabout$50,someeBaylistingsforHatchimalstoysbeginatover$100andgouptoasmuchas$10,000.
WHATWEHAVESEENFROMRETAILERSTHISYEARBelow,wedetail someof the initiatives undertakenby retailers in theUSandtheUKthisyear:
IntheUS:
• Toys“R”Usplanstoholda“quiethour”atsomeofitsUSstorestohelp autistic children shop in a comfortable environment. Theretailer’s UK stores have been doing this since 2014. Lightswill bedimmed,musicwillbeturnedoffandautistic-friendlysignagewillbeputupthroughoutthestore.
• Walmart began its layaway program on September 2, 2016, thesametimeaslastyear,buttwoweeksearlierthanitusedtolaunch.Layaway allows shoppers to reserve products across variouscategories, including toys. By making a minimum payment of $10,shoppers can get a head start with purchasing items on their listbefore the stores runoutof stock.Walmart’sminimumpayment isfor individual products that cost $10 or more and total purchasesthat are $50 or more. Once the full payment has been made,customers can collect the product from a designated store. Thisprogramisnotavailableforonlinepurchases.
• AmazonPrimecustomerswithEchodevicesorotherAlexa-powereddevices can shop exclusive toy deals this year. Amazon has alsorenewedandexpandedits“InterestingFinds”featurethatpresentsacurated collection of products across various categories for men,women,childrenandpets.Asauserindicateshisorherpreferencesby “hearting” items, Amazon gathers similar products and displaysthem to the customer. Previously, this Pinterest-like function wasavailable only on theweb version of the site, but it has now beenexpandedtothemobileversionandtheapp.
IntheUK:
• Harrods has introduced a concierge service exclusively for toyshopping.Afteran initialconsultationtounderstanddetailssuchasthe age, hobbies, interests and favorite charactersof the child, theconcierge shows the buyer around Harrods Toy Kingdom—fourrooms that contain over 60,000 toys—and suggests suitable toys.Other services provided by the Toy Concierge include giftwrappingandshipping,andthereisnominimumrequiredspending.
• Tesco launched its holiday toys promotional campaign on October20, 2016. The retailer stated that it carries out daily price-checksagainstthesametoyssoldatgeneralmerchandiserArgostoensurethatitprovidesthebestpricestoitscustomers.