Hong Kong Economy | 香港經濟近況 - Half-yearly …Selected Asian economies include MainlandChina, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan

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Half-yearly Economic Report 2018 &

Updated economic forecasts for 2018

10 August 2018

Hong Kong SAR Government

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Highlights of the latest economic situation

• Hong Kong’s economy sustained strong momentum in Q2, expanding by 3.5% over a year earlier

• Riding on the robust global economy, external demand remained sturdy. Yet, external uncertainties increased markedly in the latter part of June, as the trade tensions between the US and the Mainland escalated

• Domestic demand expanded visibly on the back of favourable labour market conditions

• Consumer price inflation stayed moderate in Q2

• Latest real GDP growth forecast for 2018 maintained at 3-4%; underlying inflation rate forecast at 2.5%

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Economic performance in Q2 2018

Hong Kong’s economy sustained strong year-on-year growth in Q2

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Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

按年增減

Year-on-year change

經季節性調整後

按季增減

Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

本地生產總值

Gross Domestic Product

3.5%

-0.2%

十年平均增長

10-year trend growth2.7%

5

External sector

5

6

Trading activities in Asia were buoyant amid robust global economy

6

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

以美元計價按年增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in US$ terms (%)

美國、歐元區及日本

的進口需求*Import demand of US, euro area and Japan*

選定亞洲經濟體的出口

Exports of selected Asian economies

註：

Notes:

選定亞洲經濟體包括中國內地、香港、印度、印尼、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、台灣及泰國。

(*) 由於數據有限，美國、歐元區及日本的進口需求最新數字為2018年4-5月合併的數字。

Selected Asian economies include Mainland China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.(*) Due to data limitations, the latest figure for import demand of US, euro area and Japan is Apr-May 2018 combined.

2017 2018

Annual Q1 Q2

Mainland 5.4 9.4 7.7

U.S. 1.9 5.1 8.2

E.U. 4.6 9.1 7.2

Japan 10.3 5.2 2.8

India 35.1 -7.6 -33.1

Taiwan 16.1 8.4 -1.9

Korea 3.3 -3.1 1.5

Singapore 1.8 10.5 19.3 Q1

2013Q1

2014Q1

2015Q1

2016Q1

2017Q1

2018

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

貨物出口

Exports of goods

4.6%

-0.4%

按年增減

Year-on-year change

經季節性調整後按季增減

Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

7

Hong Kong’s exports of goods grew solidly for Q2 as a whole

7

Total exports of goods by major market

Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

8

Exports of services expanded notably

8

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10服務輸出

Exports of services

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

6.1%

-3.2%

按年增減

Year-on-year change

經季節性調整後按季增減

Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

9 9

Exports of services

Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

Travel

Transport

Financial services

Business and other services

2017 Annual 1.5 6.1 4.4 0.7

Q3 1.8 6.5 5.0 0.8

Q4 4.0 3.3 8.0 0.7

2018 Q1 13.1 4.1 10.3 1.4

Q2 11.1 3.2 7.6 1.4

All major components maintained momentum

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Domestic sector

10

11

Private consumption expenditure grew significantly

11

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

實質增減率 (%)Rate of change in real terms (%)

私人消費開支

Private consumption expenditure

6.1%

-0.6%

按年增減

Year-on-year change

經季節性調整後按季增減

Seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter change

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

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本地固定資本形成總額

Gross domestic fixedcapital formation

按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)按年實質增減率 (%)Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

0.4%

12

Overall investment spending recorded further growth

12

Machinery, equipment and

intellectual property products

Building and construction

2017 Annual 1.8 1.7

Q1 -7.8 7.0 Q2 6.1 2.0 Q3 -3.0 0.9 Q4 9.9 -2.6

2018 Q1 6.1 1.9

Q2 4.7 -3.0

Year-on-year rate of change in real terms (%)

Overall investment spending

13

Labour market

13

14

Labour market tightened further

註: 除整體失業率外，其他均為未經季節性調整數字。 Note: Not seasonally adjusted except the overall unemployment rate.

Q12000

Q12001

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

較低技術勞工

Lower-skilled workers

整體

Overall

失業率 (%)Unemployment rate (%)

專業及管理員工

Professional andmanagerial staff

1.7%

2.8%3.0%

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Year-on-year rate of change (%)

Nominal growth

Real growth

Index of payroll per person engaged (Q1 2018) 3.8 1.3

Wage index (March 2018) 4.0 1.2

Median monthly household income (Q2 2018) 5.9 3.7

Average monthly employment earnings of full-time employees of the lowest three decile groups (Q2 2018) 4.7 2.3

15 15 Note: (*) Excluding foreign domestic helpers.

Income*

Wages and earnings continued to register broad-based gains in real terms

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Inflation

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1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8

0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0

1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3

1.3

1.1 0.9 0.7

0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7

0.8 0.9

3.8 3.5

3.3 3.3

2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2

2.8

2.3 2.1 2.1

1.4

2.0 1.7 1.6

2.4 2.4

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15* Q1 16* Q2 16* Q3 16* Q4 16* Q1 17* Q2 17* Q3 17* Q4 17* Q1 18* Q2 18*

其他

Others交通

Transport私人房屋租金

Private housing rent食品

Food基本綜合消費物價指數

Underlying CCPI

(%)(%)

Contribution to the year-on-year rate of change in the underlying Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) by major component

Note: (*) By reference to the new 2014/15-based CPI series. 17

Inflation pressure stayed moderate, though building up somewhat amid strong economic conditions

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Property market

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-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

07/15 01/16 07/16 01/17 07/17 01/18

整體住宅價格

Overall flat prices

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

09/15 03/16 09/16 03/17 09/17 03/18

買賣合約數目

Agreements received

1998-2017年每月平均

1998-2017 monthly average

中小型單位價格

Small/medium-sized flat prices

大型單位價格

Large flat prices

按月升跌 (%)Monthly rate of change (%)

住宅售價

Flat prices住宅物業買賣合約數目

No. of S&P agreements for residential property

Note: Small/medium-sized flats refer to those with a saleable area of less than 100 m2, while large flats refer to those with a saleable area of at least 100 m2.

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Residential property market stayed buoyant in Q2

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Index of home purchase affordability worsened

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89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

供款與入息比率^ (%)Repayment-income ratio^ (%)

1998-2017年平均數

(1998-2017 average)

45平方米單位的按揭供款(假設按揭成數為70%及年期為20年) 相對住戶入息中位數 (不包括居於公營房屋的住戶) 的比率。這比率與

金管局公布的平均供款與入息比率不同，後者是新批按揭貸款申請人的每月償還債務與每月收入的比率。

The ratio of mortgage payment for a flat with saleable area of 45 sq m (assuming 70% loan-to-value ratio and tenor of 20 years) to median incomeof households (excluding those living in public housing). This ratio is different from the debt servicing ratio published by the HKMA, which is theratio of actual monthly debt obligations of mortgagees to their monthly income of newly approved mortgages.

註︰ (^)

Note : (^)

負擔較輕More

Affordable

負擔較重Less

Affordable

2018年第二季 : 約 742018Q2 : about 74

Q12006

Q12007

Q12008

Q12009

Q12010

Q12011

Q12012

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

住宅單位數目

Number of domestic units

未來三至四年可提供的私人住宅單位數目

Number of domestic units to be available in the coming three to four years

以上數字包括已落成樓宇但仍未售出的單位數目、建築中而且尚未預售的單位數目，及已批出土地並可隨時動工的項目。

運輸及房屋局。

The above figures included unsold units in completed projects, units under construction but not yet sold by presale, and units from disposed sites whereconstruction may start anytime.Transport and Housing Bureau.

註︰

資料來源：

Note :

Source :

21

Total medium-term flat supply at a high level of 93 000

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Outlook for the remaining 2018

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Mainland: Economy remained firmly on track to achieve its official growth target of around 6.5% in 2018

U.S.: Economy maintained above-trend growth, partly boosted by the tax reform

Euro area & Japan: Economic activities continued to expand moderately, but the pace slowed somewhat

Rest of Asia: Emerging market economies generally recorded notable growth, thanks to vibrant regional trade flows

Global economy still strong in Q2, but turned less even

GDP growth in 2017

IMF forecasts for 2018 GDP growth

2018 Change between

Apr and Jul Jan Apr Jul

World 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 0.0

U.S. 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 0.0

Euro area 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.2 -0.2

Japan 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.0 -0.2

Mainland China 6.9 6.6 6.6 6.6 0.0

Developing Asia 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.0

Emerging market and developing economies 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.0

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IMF maintained its 2018 global growth forecast, but warned the balance of risks had shifted further to the downside

25

Business expectations by sector (net balance*) 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3

Import/export trade and wholesale +1 -4 +5 -1

Retail +24 +20 +4 -1

Accommodation and food services +13 -3 -7 -10

Transportation, storage and courier services -7 -5 -8 +5

Information and communications +16 -2 +20 +16

Professional and business services +7 +2 -2 +3

Financing and insurance +13 +21 +28 +23

All sectors surveyed +5 +2 +8 +6

Business outlook for large enterprises turned slightly more cautious

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Note: (*) Net balance indicates the direction of expected change in business situation versus the preceding quarter. It refers to the difference in percentage points between the proportion of establishments choosing “better” over that choosing “worse”. A positive sign indicates a likely upward trend while a negative sign, a likely downward trend.

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Supportive factors for the near-term outlook

Current momentum of the global economy, if continued, will help support Hong Kong’s external demand

Domestic demand should remain largely resilient, supported by favourable job and income conditions

27

Trade conflicts could weigh on global economic sentiment as well as trade and investment activities, thereby possibly putting a damper on Hong Kong’s exports in the period ahead

Local investor sentiment might feel the pinch should the US-Mainland trade conflicts intensify further

Consumer sentiment may turn less sanguine in the wake of the increased external uncertainties

Financial and asset markets could become more volatile upon further tightening of financial conditions across advanced economies

But HK economy faces increased external headwinds

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Latest economic forecasts for 2018 as a whole

Forecasts as released on

11 May Latest

forecasts

Real GDP growth 3-4% 3-4%

Underlying inflation 2.5% 2.5%

Headline inflation 2.2% 2.2%

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Half-yearly Economic Report 2018 &

Updated economic forecasts for 2018

10 August 2018

Hong Kong SAR Government

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