Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats 2008 parliamentary election campaign
Jan 19, 2016
Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats2008 parliamentary election campaign
General situation: 2007-2008
-voter disenchantment:
-public sector corruption
-mistrust of politics
-resentment moods
-stable (unchanging) number of voters for the last 4 years
-looming economic crisis (compounded by spendthrift Social Democratic government)
Homeland Union – 2 past elections
Homeland Union had a sufficiently stable electorate – ca. 15 percent of total votes
Votes for Conservatives
2004 parliamentary election 176 409
2007 municipal election 184 000
2007-2008 on the basis of polls conducted during this period HU would get between 11 and 16 percent of votes
ca. 130 000 - 190 000
Homeland Union at the crossroads
Two alternatives:
A. Seek to woo back the voters who went over to the Dark Side (i.e., right-wing populist parties such as Paksas’ ‘Order and Justice’).
This would entail appealing to resentment vote: using negative campaigning, introducing more polarising issues, stressing the fight against corruption as the main issue.
Ditch the reform agenda.
B. Attract new voters by appealing to new social and demographic profiles.
Research
Three direction-seeking enterprises were running in parallel:
-voters’ needs & party brand analysis
-geographical electoral analysis
-the New Agenda for Lithuania: innovative manifesto-building exercise
Andrius Kubilius’ imageVoters vs. Non-Voters
Andrius Kubilius yra suvokiamas kaip turintis patirties ir orientuotas į Vakarus, vertinantis patriotizmą, tradicijas. Rinkėjai (lyginant su nerinkėjais) A. Kubilių aiškiau poziciuonuoja Tikslingųjų segmente, mano, kad jis nuoširdžiai besistengia dėl Lietuvos, o iš neigiamų savybių jam priskiria pataikavimą. Nerinkėjai mato jį labiau griežtą, disciplinuotą ir įkyrų (ženkliau priskiria Ambicingųjų segmentui). Šio politiko rinkėjai Lietuvoje nori jaustis rimti ir atsakingi, o atrodyti – sąžiningi ir patikimi, rimti ir solidūs.
NeedScope®
r = 0.60
Korupcija valstybinėse įstaigose
Biurokratija valstybinėse įstaigose
Valstybė neturi vieningos ilgalaikės strategijos
Skubotai leidžiami įstatymai
Vyresniems žmonėms
Visiems
Solidiems, svarbiems
Protingiems, rimtiems
Orientuotas į Vakarus
Profesionalus, turinti patirtį politikoje
Galingas, įtakingas
Griežtas, disciplinuotas
Patikimas, sąžiningas
Nuoširdžiai besistengiantis dėl Lietuvos
Turintis aiškią pasaulėžiūrą
Tradicijų išlaikymas, istorija
Patriotizmas
Užtikrinti, pasitikintys
Rimti, atsakingi
Svarbūs, įtakingi
Rimti, solidūs
Gerbiami, sėkmingi
Sąžiningi, patikimi
Nesuvaržomieji
Ambicingieji
TikslingiejiTaikieji
Lankstieji
Nerūpestingieji
Andrius Kubilius
Andrius Kubilius
PataikaujantisĮkyrus
Politiko nerinkėjaiPolitiko rinkėjaiBendros savybės
Korupcija valstybinėse įstaigose
Valstybė neturi vieningos ilgalaikės strategijos
Skubotai leidžiami įstatymai
Dideli mokesčiai gyventojams
Neįvestas euras
Mažos pensijos
Didėjančios kainos (infliacija)
Mokamas aukštasis mokslas
Vyresniems žmonėms
Pensininkams Visiems
Solidiems, svarbiems
Protingiems, rimtiems
Orientuotas į Vakarus
Profesionalus, turinti patirtį politikoje
LyderisGalingas, įtakingas
Tradicijų išlaikymas, istorija
Bendravimas, ryšys su žmonėmis
Patriotizmas
Socialinė lygybė
Užtikrinti, pasitikintys
Rimti, atsakingiTvarkingi, kontroliuojantys situaciją
Saugūs, apsaugoti
Rimti, solidūs
Gerbiami, sėkmingi
High5.19
Low-3.56
High5.250.00 1.60
Negate
PROBLEMOS PASKIRTIS APIBŪDINIMAS_PART VERTYBĖS NORI_JAUSTISNORI_ATRODYTI
r = 0.43
Homeland Union vs. Social DemocratsReinforce
Ignore Develop
Proposed Homeland Union brand
Activity, self-confidence, sense
of purpose
Activity, self-confidence, sense
of purpose
Intellect, responsibility, concreteness
Intellect, responsibility, concreteness
Intelligent and purposeful
innovations and insights
Intelligent and purposeful
innovations and insights
Justice, honesty, transparency
Justice, honesty, transparency
Confidence, security, “closer to people”
Confidence, security, “closer to people”
Strength, respectStrength, respect
Conservative voters: age groups
0
5
10
15
20
25
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-87
We
lack
young
people
!
“Lost generation”: born after WW2, around 40 in 1990
Goal in 2008 parliamentary election
300 000 votes
Homeland Union (Conservative) voter
• Older. More than 60 percent of Conservative voters are above 44.
• Has higher education than the voters for populist parties. Has a family (60 percent).
• Lithuanian. Practising Catholic.
• Patriot, anti-Communist. Civically minded, supports democratic institutions. Idealist rather than pragmatist. Follows political life in Lithuania because he deeply cares.
• Homeland Union impresses him through its firm ideology, patriotism, and unselfishness. It is a tested, reliable, long-functioning party.
180 000 votes
Very loyal to the party, therefore rather indifferent to whatever the Homeland Union may say or do during the election campaign.
Lithuanian Christian Democrats
30 000 votes
• In 2007 municipal elections Christian Democrats received 55000 votes.
• Their voter is similar age as the Homeland Union voter.
• Slightly lower general level of education. More numerous representatives of ethnic minorities.
• Electoral geography does not coincide with the Homeland Union – considerable number of voters in the regions where Homeland Union is less popular.
-
Christian Democrat voter may not necessarily choose to vote for the united party.
Goal in 2008 parliamentary election
300 000 votes
180 000 traditional Conservative electorate
30 000 Christian Democrat votes
90 000
?I. Voters of other partiesII. UndecidedIII. Non-Voting
I. Voters of other parties
The Conservative potential to attract voters of other parties is extremely low.
Choosing this path would not bring us to the target.
Ratings, percent
Conservatives as the party of 2nd choice, percent
Voters favourable to Conservatives,
no. of votes
‘Order and Justice’ 15 1 3 900
Social Democrats 12 12 37 440
Labour party 8 9 18 720
Liberal movement 4 27 28 080
Total: 88 140
II. Undecided
Ca. 11 percent of all those who have voting rights.
The demographic profile of this group is very similar to the Lithuanian average.
The only distinguishing characteristic – it contains more women and fewer Poles.
Over 280 000 voters
Doubting
Uninformed
UndecidedŠaltinis: Vilmorus
III. Non-Voters
Those who do not participate in elections make up around 16 percent of Lithuanian voters.
More often men, between 30 and 49 years of age.
Group tends to ramify into higher and lowest levels of education as well as income brackets.
Over 400 000 voters
Šaltinis: Vilmorus
Goal in 2008 parliamentary election
300 000 votes
180 000 traditional Cons. electorate
30 000 Christian Democrat voters
90 000From undecided and
non-voters
Main targetgroup
Why they do not vote and keep having doubts
They don’t see an alternative – the new parties are populist, while the old ones have made too many mistakes.
They no longer believe that their actions can change anything. Parties care only for their own interests. Lithuania will never get out of the pit it got into.
Uninteresting.
Why they wouldn’t vote for the Conservatives
Because this is the old party. It made mistakes. And hasn’t changed since.IT’S NOT AN ALTERNATIVE
It’s a criticising party. One that generates the impression that nobody can be trusted in Lithuania. It deepens the sense of hopelessness.NOTHING CAN BE DONE
Assurance that Conservatives have CHANGED. That it is no longer a relic of the independence struggle, but a contemporary party focused on today’s and tomorrow’s realities.
HOPE that something can nevertheless be done.
What may encourage them to vote Conservative?
Value-chargedValue-neutral
Soft
Hard
Administrative reform
Family policy
Emigration
Judicial reform
Higher education reform
State security
Russia
Immigration
Energy security
Message: Values & Policies
Value-chargedValue-neutral
Soft
Hard
Administrative reform
Family policy
Emigration
Judicial reform
Higher education reform
State security
Russia
Immigration
Energy security
empo
wer
ing
the
com
mun
ityquality
through students’ choice
fighting corruption
Values & Policies: Lost in Communication?
Faced with the onset of crisis, what people needed most was confidence, stability, and security.
People needed faith that all can still be well.
The election will be won by the party that manages to convey this to people.
ELECTION STRATEGY
What do the Conservatives have to do in order to provide confidence, stability, and security?
What should they do in order to restore faith in the future?
How can we persuade those who doubt and are disappointed in politics to choose the Homeland Union?
PRADĖKIME / LET’S BEGIN
The main idea / slogan of the campaign
• Combines idealism, pragmatism, and change
• Focused on the future, on positive ideas
• Encouragement to others as well as ourselves (unity)
• Sounds resolute and encouraging
Principal topics and messages of the campaign
TOPICS TO ‘UNBLOCK’ THE TARGET GROUP
BASICTOPICS
UNIQUE /PROGRAMMATICTOPICS
FAITH IN THE FUTURE
UNITY
CONSERVATIVES ARE PROGRESSIVE
TRANSPARENCY, ANTI-CORRUPTION
ECONOMIC STABILITY, INFLATION
FAMILY
EDUCATION
COMMUNITY
Campaign Objectives
I. Renew the image so as to appeal to new voter groups
II. Provide competent and trustworthy reassurance to those who seek guidance and support in troubled times
III. Mobilise the existing reserves through identifying and addressing our voters
IV. Identify, and reach out to, potential new voters
Objective I: Renewing the Image:‘Let’s Begin to Defend, to Protect, and to Serve.’
Samples of poster campaign I
Samples of poster campaign II
Samples of poster campaign III
Objective II: Reassuring the Troubled
-New Agenda for Lithuania: decentralised, public consultation-based manifesto drafting procedure
-Movement ‘For the sake of Lithuania’: gathering prominent experts and public authorities behind our manifesto and reform proposals
-Election manifesto: ground-breaking reforms strategy – top marks from independent experts
-Election theme / slogan: ‘We have a clear plan’ (in contrast to Social Democrat-led government haphazardly muddling through its last months)
41 pav. TS(LK) palaikymo skirtumas tarp 2007 m. Savi-valdos ir 2004 m. Seimo rinkimų (balsais)
-92 - -38-6 - -2
5 - 20
29 - 4569 - 99
5
12 9 4
1
2 10
8 6 113
7
22
21
25
24
26
28
23
27 26 243
Atgauti kas prarasta, jungtis su krikdemais
+ 160Tęsti plėtrą + 80 X 4 = +320
Atgauti kas prarasta, vogti iš liberalų + 210
Stiprinti grupių veiklą, socialinė retorika
+ 40 X 4 = + 160
Remtis vietos lyderiais + 150
Objective III: Mobilise the Faithful
Electoral analysis with directions of use for local party organisations
Objective IV: Reach Out
Internet initiatives (Darius will say more)
ResultsNo. of votes
No. of seats in single-member constituencies
Overall number of seats
Forming the coalition government
Satisfaction
243 823 (19,23 %)
27 / 71
45 / 141
YES
85 %
Expectations
300 000
32
50
YES
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