Home Price Monitor Cutting Through the Noise January 26, 2011 Next Release: February 26, 2011 RESEARCH
Jan 19, 2015
Home Price Monitor
Cutting Through the NoiseJanuary 26, 2011
Next Release: February 26, 2011
RESEARCH
Highlights and Outlook
• Home prices were relatively stable in November and December, a seasonally weak time for home sales. Most data series showed slight or modest declines for the month and year, but a few measures showed slight increases in prices and new home prices rose robustly.
• Rising home sales and smaller inventories will contribute to price stability going forward, perhaps especially among newer homes where low levels of construction have inventories of new homes for sale near all-time lows.
• Job growth, a relatively stable level of hires and an increase in job openings bode well for consumer demand and increased sales in the months ahead.
RESEARCH
Home Prices
RESEARCH
Nov-00 Jun-01 Jan-02 Aug-02 Mar-03 Oct-03 May-04 Dec-04 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100) CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Home Price Data – Year over Year Change
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
RESEARCH
Nov-00 Jun-01 Jan-02 Aug-02 Mar-03 Oct-03 May-04 Dec-04 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100) CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Home Price Changes
RESEARCH
*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.
Data Series
Nov-10 Monthly Change*
Nov-10 Annual Change*
Dec-10 Monthly Change*
Dec-10 Annual Change*
Next Release Date
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes -0.1% 0.1% -0.8% -1.0% 23-FebNAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes -0.3% 0.9% -0.9% -0.2% 23-FebFHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only -0.4% -4.3% -- -- 25-FebS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -1.0% -1.6% -- -- 22-FebS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -0.8% -0.4% -- -- 22-FebCoreLogic National HPI -1.6% -5.1% -- -- Mid-FebCoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded -0.3% -2.2% -- -- Mid-FebNew 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price 6.9% -1.5% 12.1% 8.5% 24-Feb
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Spread of Existing Home Price ChangesYear over Year
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
RESEARCH
Nov-06
Jan-07
Mar-07
May-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory
Sources: NAR
RESEARCH
Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months) (right axis)
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)
Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits
Sources: Census
RESEARCH
Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)
Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires
Sources: BLS
RESEARCH
Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)
Potential Job Growth – Openings
Sources: BLS
RESEARCH
Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)
Housing Affordability
Sources: NAR
RESEARCH
Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%) NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Compos-ite (right axis)
NAR Payment as Percent of Income (left axis)
About the Price Data Series
RESEARCH
Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data SeriesNAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing HomesNAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase OnlyWeighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase & refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 CoreLogic National HPI CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction
Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops
WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value; quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and composites are 3 month moving averagesWeighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County recorder data
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
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