Natural Patterns of the Eastern Slopes of Alberta FRI ND Program Information Session Edmonton, Alberta December 9 th , 2009 David Andison
HLP_2009_12_Prsnttn_InfoSessionNaturalPatternsoftheEasternSlopesofAB_Andison
Mar 10, 2016
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Natural Patterns of the Eastern Slopes of Alberta
FRI ND Program Information SessionEdmonton, AlbertaDecember 9th, 2009
David Andison
WaterCaribouForestryRecreationOil and gasMPB threatWildfire threat…
Relative Lightning Density on the Hinton Wood
Products FMA
Natural Subregions smush up against
the mountains.
Fire Size Distributions
05
101520253035404550
<1
1-40
40-80
80-20
0
2-600
600-1
,0001-2
,000
2-5,00
05-1
0,000
10,00
0+
Forest Patch Size-Class (ha)
Perc
ent A
rea
MontaneSubalpine
For example:
Fire Frequency
Fire Size &
Severity
“stand-replacing”fires.
“stand-maintaining” fires.
Yet, How Much Do We REALLYKnow About the Disturbance
History Here?
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100
120
140
160
180
200
Y e a r s
% K
illed
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100
120
140
160
180
200
% K
illed
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100
120
140
160
180
200
% K
illed
Stand-Replacing Regime
Stand-Maintaining
Regime
Mixed Regime
0
2 0
4 0
6 0
8 0
1 0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100
120
140
160
180
200
% K
illed
Fire control starts here,
…& we are here?
What if…
• Tree lines have advanced (east).• Open meadow:forest ratios have decreased.• Duff layers are thicker (fuel, MSE, germination)• Soil is colder.• Understorey species composition has shifted.• Tree species composition has shifted.• Stand densities have increased.• Habitat has shifted.• Fine fuel has increased. • MPB risk has increased.• …
If This is True, Some Potential Impacts Are:
Extent of mixed severity fires as we believed circa 1990.
Extent of mixed severity fires as we believed circa 2008.
Possible extent of actual mixed severity fires?
2009 pilot study
Possible extent of actual mixed severity fires?
?
?2009 pilot study
• Type• Frequency & Periodicity• Size & Shape• Severity• Tendencies
• Seral-stage levels• Old forest patch sizes• Edge density• Coarse woody debris• Suspended sediment & O2…
• Fire risk• MPB risk• Water quality• Caribou habitat• Grizzly bear habitat…
Disturbance Patterns
Landscape Condition
Biological Consequences
Another example: If MPB has not been here before,
What sorts of landscape conditions and biological responses should we expect?
Company X analyses inventory data to
determine historical old forest levels.
Consultant A does intensive field study
on fire sizes and frequency. GoA Agency B does
analysis of fire cycles based on
available fire occurrence.
Agency F does simulation
analysis of seral-stages levels.
Grad Student does a simulation analysis
of fire sizes.
Consultant B borrows best available local knowledge to establish “burn deficits”.
The Problem to be Solved:Multiple, unconnected and unequal:
• Partners, • Methods, • Data sources, • Available resources,• Criteria / minimum standards, • Needs and objectives, • Knowledge levels, • Indicators, and • Language.