History of Iraq This region was part of the Ottoman Empire in the 1500’s. During WWI, Great Britain set up the Kingdom of Iraq and put a Pro-British ruler.

History of Iraq

• This region was part of the Ottoman Empire in the 1500’s.

• During WWI, Great Britain set up the Kingdom of Iraq and put a Pro-British ruler into power.

Anglo-Iraqi War• In 1941, a group of Iraqi Nationalists that

wanted to be independent and began to revolt against the British governing them with the help of the Nazis.

• This was during WWII and the British violently ended the revolt in 1 month.

• Following this Britain also invaded Syria and Lebanon in order to maintain order in the Middle East.

On your Left Side, answer:

• How do you think this would impact the view of Western powers following the revolt? Why?

History of Iraq

• In the 1950’s this government was overthrown.

• After a series of other governmental changes the Ba’ath Party took power in 1968.

Iraq: Saddam Hussein• A Ba’ath leader named

Saddam Hussein became the president.

• Saddam Hussein was a harsh ruler. He controlled the press, restricted personal freedoms and killed numerous political enemies.

• Iraq was the second largest oil exporter in the world.

Before the Iran-Iraq War• In the years after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War Iran,

under the Shah, was a US ally while Iraq was in the Soviet camp– Iran kept an eye on the USSR & OPEC– Iraq bought arms from the USSR

• Major changes in 1979– Saddam Hussein & the Ayatollah Khomeini

gained power in Iraq & Iran, respectively– The Soviet army rolled into Afghanistan

CAUSES: Iran Iraq War 1980-1988• Assassination attempt on Iraqi

official named Tariq Aziz by a Shiite extremist group backed by Iran named DAWA

• Contested rights to waterway called Shatt Al Arab along the border of Iran and Iraq

• Saddam hoped to annex, or conquer, a part of Iran where many Arabs lived

• But remember… there are deeper, more complicated issues between Iraq and Iran

Q10

The Iran-Iraq The Iran-Iraq War:War:

Taking SidesTaking Sides

The Iran-Iraq The Iran-Iraq War:War:

Taking SidesTaking Sides

SADDAM HUSSEIN• Modern, western

government

• Sold oil to US

• Secular, laws not based on Koran

• Sunni Arab

• Known support of terrorists (Abu Nidal)

• Wanted to make Iraq the leading state in the Middle East

AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI• Came to power through

revolution in 1979

• Shiite Persian

• Created Islamic theocracy

• Held Americans hostage in US Embassy in Iran for 444 days

• Supported Hezbollah, a known terrorist organization which attacked Israel

Who would the US support, Iran or Iraq?

Once and future Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein shake hands December 20, 1983 in Baghdad, Iraq. Rumsfeld met with Hussein during the war between Iran and Iraq as an envoy for former US President Ronald Reagan. (Photo by Getty Images)

Oliver North formulated part of the plan to sell guns to Contra rebels in Nicaragua to raise money to buy the release of hostages held by terrorists loyal to Iran.

The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988• In 1980, Iraq broke the Baghdad Pact,

invading Iran, expecting an easy victory, finding more resistance than expected

• In 1981, Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear plant

• In 1984, the USA, fearing victory by Iran, renewed diplomatic relations with Iraq

• The USA armed & trained the Iraqi army

• Finally, stalemate in 1988

Iraq: Iraq/Iran War

• In 1980 Iraq invaded Iran.

• Saddam Hussein was worried that the Shia Islamic revolution that was taking place in Iran would spill over into Iraq.

Secretary RumsfeldSecretary Rumsfeld& Saddam Hussein: & Saddam Hussein:

19831983

Secretary RumsfeldSecretary Rumsfeld& Saddam Hussein: & Saddam Hussein:

19831983

Impact on Saddam of US Aid

• Transformed Saddam into a much stronger, even more ruthless leader

• Baathist power solidified, cult of the personality strengthened

• The US had a hard time convincing Saddam to engage Iran in the final battles that secured a draw—and a ceasefire

• In short, we contributed enormously to the creation of a nightmare

Iraq’s Oil Fields

Iraq: Iraq/Iran War• Saddam Hussein

decided to take advantage of the chaos in Iran and invade without being noticed.

• The Iranians fought back and the Iraq/Iran war continued until 1988. Both countries suffered.

The Iraq-Iran War

• This was a war between a Saddam Hussein led Iraq vs. Ayatollah Khomeini’s Iranian Army.

• Iraq Invaded Iran in 1980.• At the time Iran was a bitter enemy of the U.S. with Iran

taking U.S. Hostages in 1979. This was protest against U.S. involvement in the Iranian Government. So the U.S. supported Iraq in the war.

• Iraq used Chemical Weapons against Iran on several occasions.

• The war ended in a ceasefire in 1988.

Donald Rumsfeld and Suddam Hussein

Iraqi Soldiers At Iraqi Soldiers At the Frontthe Front

Iraqi Soldiers At Iraqi Soldiers At the Frontthe Front

375,000 Iraqi casualties & 60,000 POWs!

Iranian SoldiersIranian SoldiersIranian SoldiersIranian Soldiers

Q11

Over 1,000,000 Iranian casualties!

EFFECTS : Iran Iraq War 1980-1988

• Horrific trench warfare, massive casualties (over 1 million)

• Allegations of Iraqi use of chemical weapons on both Iranians and Iraqi Kurds

• US quietly and secretly supported both sides…

• Ended as a stalemate, although Saddam claimed victory (built the “Hands of Victory” monument pictured on right)

• Massive war debts for Iraq and Iran

On your Left Side, answer:

• What aspects of the Iran-Iraq War surprised you and why?

• Do you think America should have been involved in the war and allied with Saddam Hussein? Why?

Genocide in Iraq

Operation al-AnfalSpoils of War

Operation al-Anfal

• March 1987-April 1989

• Victims: Iraqi Kurds• 50,000-100,000 killed• 90% Kurdish villages in targeted area

destroyed

• Perpetrators: Ba’ath Regime- Saddam Hussein & Hassan Ali al-Majid

Leaders

Saddam Hussein – President of Iraq from 1979 to 2003

– A leading member of the Ba’ath Party

Ali Hassan al-Majid, aka "Chemical Ali”– commander of the north at that time

– Saddam’s First Cousin

Kurds

• Sunni Muslims

• Own Language & Culture

• Live in areas of Iraq, Turkey, Iran, Syria and Armenia. ( Kurdistan)– About 5 million currently live in Iraq

The Genocide of the Kurds

►Iraq also has a population of 4 million Kurds- about 23% of the population.

►The Kurds have always felt separate from the rest of Iraq.

►In fact, they are the largest people in the world without their own state- approximately 20-25 million of them live throughout Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria.

Kurds of Iraq

• Kurds are a stateless people scattered over Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran

• Kurds make up more than 4 million of Iraq’s population of 18 million

The Genocide of the Kurds

►In fact, they are the largest people in the world without their own state- approximately 20-25 million of them live throughout Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria.

Before the Genocide

Kurds over the past 90 years

• struggle and rebellion against governments that have tried to

1. assimilate them

2. at times marginalize them

History of Kurds

• Were promised a state of their own in 1922, but Turkey refused to ratify the Treaty of Sevres and the idea was dropped.– This same pact would have required

prosecution of Turks for their atrocities against the Armenians

• Iraqi Kurds staged frequent rebellions in hopes of governing themselves

History of the Kurds

• In 1970, Iraq offered the Kurds self-rule in a Kurdistan Autonomous Region that covered half of the territory that the Kurds considered theirs.

• It excluded Kurdish-populated oil-rich provinces.

• Kurds reject the offer

History of the Kurds

• Saddam Hussein, imposed the plan unilaterally in 1974– Kurds thought they would get support from

the United States, Iran, and Israel• U.S. was concerned with Iraq’s friendship with the

Soviet Union• Iran and Iraq were in a dispute over their border

– Kurds revolt under their leader, Mullah Mustafa Barzani

The Genocide of the Kurds►In 1970, Saddam

Hussein did give the Kurds some limited autonomy.

►But by 1974, Kurds led a revolt which Saddam brutally crushed and forced 130, 000 Kurds to flee to Iran.

History of the Kurds• 1975, Algiers agreement temporarily settles

border dispute between Iraq and Iran– Iraq agrees to recognize the Iranian border– Iran and U.S. withdraw their support for the Kurds

• Without the support of Iran and U.S., Kurd revolt collapses

• Kurds were treated by Saddam Hussein as traitors for aligning with the enemy

Before the Genocide

POLITICAL STRUGGLESWar broke out in 1974-75 Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Vs. the Iraqi Army

1975 the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)

1980 The start of the Iraq-Iran war• Hussein support from the United States • Iran support Kurdish parties (weapons and $)

The Genocide of the Kurds

►Things would get worse after 1980, when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran, leading to the bloodiest war of 20th century since WWII.

Iranian Forces

The Genocide of the Kurds

►Many Kurds began to ally themselves with Iranians in the war as an opportunity to try to break away from Iraq and gain their own state.

►As a result, violence against the Kurds increased steadily throughout the 1980’s.

The Genocide of the Kurds

►But things became the worst when Saddam appointed his cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid (“Chemical Ali”) to handle the “Kurdish Question.”

“Chemical Ali”

History of the Kurds

• Saddam ordered the 4,000 sq mi. of Kurdish territory in northern Iraq, Arabized– Imported large Arab communities (Kurds were

Muslim)– Required Kurds to leave any area he considered

strategically valuable

• Many were deported to the southern border within 2 months

• Some sources say 200,000 others say as nearly ½ a million.

The Genocide in Kurdistan►He nicknamed his solution the “Anfal”

(“spoils”) Campaign- a reference to the 8th Sura of the Qu’ran, which refers to the 1st major victory of Muslim forces in 624 A.D.

►The Anfal Campaign lasted from February 23 1996 until September 1988- it had eight stages and involved aircraft and 200,000 Iraqi soldiers (the Kurds had no more than a few thousand troops).

Operation al-Anfal

• Evacuation of Kurds from villages• Destruction of villages• Elimination of Kurdish populations

The Genocide of the Kurds

►The campaign began by rounding up Kurds, deporting them from their homes, sending them to camps, and having the males of fighting age executed.

The Genocide of the Kurds

►The first reports of chemical weapons came in May of 1987, when 20 villages were gassed to deter the population from helping Iranian forces.

The Genocide of the Kurds

►The most infamous act of genocide, however, happened in March 1988 at the village of Halabja- where the Iranians were threatening to break through- killing 5,000 people including men, women, children, and infants (they used a hydrogen cyanide compound similar to a chemical used against the Jews during the Holocaust)

Chemical Attacks• Used on villages too difficult to for troops to

reach.

Halabja-March 16, 1988(largest chemical attack on civilians in history)

3,200-5,000 died7,000-10,000 woundedDiseases and birth defects for years to

follow

The Genocide of the Kurds

The Genocide of the Kurds

The Genocide of the Kurds

Operation al-Anfal Results

15 million land mines throughout countryside

90% of villages & 15-20 cities/towns destroyed

1.5 million Kurdish peasants interned in camps

Mass Executions

• Most Kurds who died in the Anfal were killed in mass executions

• Senior Reagan administration officials made it plain that the fate of the Kurds was not their concern

• Several Kurds survived Iraqi firing squads and later came forward to describe the horror

Final Offensive Against the Kurds

• The final offensive against the Kurds was widely known– New York Times ran a long front page story

on Sept. 1, 1988

• 65,000 Kurdish victims and survivors go to Turkey

Final Offensive Against The Kurds

• U.S officials were reluctant to criticize Iraq and took refuge in the absence of perfect information.– Said reports from Turkish border were not

unanimous.

• The Regan administration’s endless search for “evidence” provided a familiar fig leaf for inaction.

Aftermath

• U.S. calls on the UN to send in a team of experts to Iraq to investigate.– Prior investigations had concluded in 1986,

1987, and 1988 that Iraq had used chemical weapons against Iran

• By 1989 only a few hundred villages remained standing I Hussein’s “Kurdish autonomous region.– 4,049 villages had been destroyed

Aftermath

• George Bush Sr. takes over White House in Jan. 1989– Iraq became the 9th largest purchaser of U.S.

farm goods

• 12 Western states join together at the UN Human Rights Commission and sponsor a resolution to make a through study of the human rights situation in Iraq.– U.S. refuses to join

Aftermath

• Oct. 2, 1989, a year after Kurds tumble into Turkey fleeing gas attacks, President Bush signs National Security Directive 26 (NSD-26) that says “normal relations between the U.S. and Iraq would serve our long-term interests and promote stability in the Gulf and Middle East.”

Justice• Today Kurdish women survivors cling to

rumors that their husbands remain alive in secret jails in the desert

• 70,000 Kurds have returned to Halabja where massive gas attacks took place

• Survivors remain blinded from burns

• Miscarriages and birth defects such as cleft palates are common

Justice

• High rate of lymphomas and leukemia– No radiation or chemotherapy is available

• In their failed revolt against Baghdad in 1991 Kurds stormed secret police buildings and recovered documents– Were not thinking of prosecuting officials just

obtaining names of informants

• Records were transferred to National Archives in Washington, D.C.

Justice

• Human Rights Watch was granted exclusive access to the documents– In 1992 and 1993 they interviewed 350

survivors– Physicians for Human Rights exhumed mass

graves and gathered forensic material

• Was the kind of study a U.S. government determined to stop atrocities might have attempted while the crimes were underway

Justice

• Human Rights Watch found between 50,000 and 100,000 Kurds (most children and children) were executed or disappeared between Feb. and Sept. 1998 alone.

• The confiscated Iraqi government records explicitly recorded the Iraqi aims to wipe out rural Kurdish life

After the Genocide

AFTER SADDAM HUSSEIN, AN AGREEMENTThe toppling of Hussein's regime = KDP and PUK buried their differences

Gains – Helped draft the country's new constitution – Protected their distinctive identity – Got a share of the country's resources and revenues– Guarantees Kurds a certain degree of autonomy

After the Genocide

Kurdistan (state within a state)– Intelligence service – Army– Government – Judiciary – Holds its elections separately– Sixteen countries = diplomatic ties– Safety and stability = investment and trade

After the Genocide

• The current President of Iraq is a Kurdish leader

• Several Kurds a hold key ministries in the central government, like foreign affairs.

Justice

• Having documented the genocide, Human Rights Watch assigned lawyer Richard Dicker to draw up a legal case in spring 1994.– His role was to prepare a tight case and persuade

a state to take it on.– If a genocide case were filed, the International

Court of Justice could recommend that Iraqi assets be seized and that perpetrators be punished at home, abroad, or in some international court.

Justice

• In July 1995, Secretary of State Warren Christopher signed a communique that found Iraq had committed genocide against Iraq’s Kurds and endorsed Human Rights Watch’s efforts to file a case against Iraq.– To this day, no Iraqi soldier or political leader

has been punished for atrocities committed against the Kurds.

The Genocide of the Kurds

►During the U.S. invasion of Iraq, “Chemical Ali” was captured by U.S. forces in August 2003.

►In 2005 the first trial regarding the genocide took place at the Hague in the Netherlands- the court acknowledged “genocide” had occurred and a Dutchman named Frans van Anraat was sentenced to 15 years for selling chemical agents to Saddam.

After the Genocide

June 2006 Iraqi Special Tribunal announced

• established under Iraqi law to try Iraqi nationals or residents accused of – Genocide– Crimes against humanity– War crimes – or other serious crimes committed between

1968 and 2003.

After the Genocide

Iraqi Special Tribunal

– Panel of the five Trial Judges– Conduct hearings– Pronounce judgments – Impose the sentences without using a jury

After the Genocide• August 21, 2006 Saddam Hussein and six co- defendants = face trial

• December 2006 Saddam was put on trial for the genocide during Operation Anfal.

• December 30, 2006 Saddam Hussein was executed for his role in an unrelated massacre. The trial for the Anfal campaign was still underway

• January 8, 2007 remaining charges against Saddam Hussein were dropped

• June 23 2007

– Ali Hassan al-Majid and two co-defendants = sentenced to death by hanging – Another two co-defendants = sentenced to life imprisonment – One was acquitted on prosecution's demand

Aftermath

• April 2, 1990- Sadaam Hussein confirms Iraq possesses chemical weapons– Also gives his burn Israel speech– “By God, we will make fire eat up half of

Israel” if Israel attacks Iraq

• A week after the sanctions bill clears the Senate, Iraq invaded Kuwait.– U.S. bombing of Baghdad begins Jan. 17,

1991

Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait

• Great celebrations among some Arabs, but not the other oil-producing countries

• Fear over the safety of Israel

• Fear over the global supply of petroleum

• Commitment to reverse a clear violation of international law

• Unanimous Security Council support for forcing Iraq out of Kuwait

Desert Shield to Desert Storm

• In the fall of 1990 a global force gathered to quarantine Iraq and if necessary evict Iraq from Kuwait

• Iraq essentially capitulated but with considerable casualties, retreating

• Allied forces stopped short of Baghdad, having achieved their official objectives

• Security Council extracts acquiescence from Iraq, imposing sanctions until conditions met

Iraqi Uprisings

• Global forces encouraged Iraqi uprisings• Kurds rose up in the north, Shia Arabs in

the south but not supported externally• No fly zones established• Sanctions imposed• Food for oil program initiated• Saddam remained deeply entrenched• Civilians suffered miserably

1st Persian Gulf War• On August 2, 1990, Iraqi

president, Saddam Hussein, ordered his army to invade Kuwait.

• At the time Kuwait produced over ten percent of the world's oil.

• Saudi Arabia feared an Iraqi invasion and promoted United Nations (which meant U.S.) Intervention.

• The War itself only lasted a little over a month. (Jan to Feb of 1991)

• Retreating Iraqi’s set fire to oil wells in Kuwait, because their view was that U.S. interests were only based on oil in the Middle East.

Iraq: Persian Gulf War

• In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait.

• Western world leaders were afraid to have Saddam Hussein in control of such a large share of the world’s oil.

• Western world leaders also thought Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (WMD’s) (chemical and biological weapons)

Iraq: Persian Gulf War

• An alliance of countries (including U. S. and Great Britain) forced the Iraqis out of Kuwait

Iraq: Persian Gulf War

Iraq: Results of The Persian Gulf War

• Saddam Hussein remained in power in Iraq.

• Because Saddam refused to accept U. N. terms for peace, the U. N. placed an embargo on Iraq.

• Iraq’s economy suffered as a result of the embargo.

• 600 oil fields in Kuwait were set on fire with devastating environmental effects.

Second Iraq War

Bush Doctrine

• The United States will attack first against any nation that poses a threat to the security of the United States or its allies

• Led by the United States and the United Kingdom, the invasion of Iraq began March 20, 2003, to overthrow the Iraqi gov’t of Saddam Hussein.

Leading Up To War• United States identifies Iraq as a threat

– Broke cease fire agreement 17 times• Repeatedly kicked weapons inspectors out of Iraq

– Police once held inspectors in parking lot for 2 days at gunpoint

– US points to evidence that Saddam is developing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD’s)

• Could be used against Israel or sold to terrorists

• President Bush declares Saddam Hussein a threat to the safety of the United States– Issues Feb. 2003 as deadline for Saddam to step down

from power• Deadline ignored

Reasons given for invasion of Iraq:

– Fear of “Weapons of Mass Destruction”

• (Destroy them before they can be used on the U.S.)

– Saddam Hussein’s “human rights” abuses

– To spread Democracy and improve the life of the Iraqi people

1. Bush 43 WMD Argument

Assumption:

• Iraq has WMD

• October 2002 NIE

• Pro and Con

2. Spreading Democracy

• Falling Dominoes and Democracy

• Map from Freedom House (2006)

3. Unfinished Business

• 1998 Iraq Liberation Act

• 1990/91 Gulf War

• When was the first Bush 43 meeting on overthrowing Saddam Hussein?

4. Iraq and Al-Qaeda

Relationship?

• Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304-370)

• Levin Report, October 2004

• Pentagon Report, August 2007

2002-2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case

• VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002

• UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02)

• Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107-243, 10/16/02

• National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment

• Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

Questions About After the War

Building Democracy:

• Internal Issues– Will this be like

Japan and Germany after WWII

– Or Bosnia

Questions About After the War

Regional Dynamics

• Iran

• Syria

• Al-Qaeda in Iraq

March 19, 2003: US Invasion

April 9, 2003

War in Iraq• March 2003: U.S. invades

Iraq– 78,000 troops

• Saddam’s government quickly collapses– US confident that end of

war is near• Without clear authority-

violence breaks out– Looting– Ethnic violence– Not enough US troops to

control the situation– Police were disbanded

Coalition Government

Meanwhile, coalition worked to create new, democratic government in Iraq

• 2004, power transferred to Iraqis

• 2005, Iraqis voted in country’s first multiparty election in fifty years

– Later approved new constitution to make Iraq Islamic federal democracy

• Continued violence, potential for civil war made country’s future highly uncertain

But… Mission Complicated

Insurgency

• Ex-Ba’ath and ex-military

• Al-Qaeda in Iraq, 2004

• Kurdish Independence?

• Shiite militias (Iran?)– Moqtada al-Sadr

Resistance

• 1st resistance: Political– Former Iraqi Army soldiers

trying to re-gain control

• 2nd resistance: religious– Al-Qaeda comes to Iraq

• Iran helps Shia insurgence with weapons

• Method: Guerilla Warfare– Ambush

– I.E.D.’s

Iraq, Weekend of July 7, 2007(Washington Post)

American Forces

• 168,000 by 2007– Attempting to provide

stability in order to establish a Democratic government

– Training a national army/ police force

• Patrols through cities• Leading raids on

suspected insurgents

Iraqi Government?• Should Iraq be divided

up into 3 separate nations?– Problem:

• North (Kurds): Oil. Water resources

• Sunni (North): No water or oil resources

• Shia (South): Oil/ water resources. Connection to Iran

• Dec. 2005: Parliamentary elections successfully held– Democracy is established

Political Developments?

Honest Attempts to Build Government

• Ethnic parties

• Religious parties

• Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab

• Shi’ite vs. Shi’ite

• Sunni vs. Sunni

• OIL

Positive Political Developments• 7/03 Interim Governing Council

• 12/03 Saddam Hussein captured

• 6/04 New government under PM Iyad Allawi takes over

• 1/05 Election of Transitional National Assembly

• 8/05 Shiite and Kurds coalition writes constitution

• 10/05 Constitution approved by referendum

• 12/05 Legislature chosen under constitution– Council of Representatives

• 4/06 New government chosen by Council of Representatives

• In 2003, nearly 85% of American citizens, and Congress, supported the invasion of Iraq.

• In 2009, about 20% of American citizens support the current invasion of Iraq.

• Why the change?

• No WMDs were ever found.

• Iraqi suicide bombers (loyal to Saddam Hussein) continue to interfere with any progress the U.S. makes in Iraq.

• Fewer Iraqi citizens support us than in 2003. (Don’t see enough progress)

• The new democratic Iraqi gov’t continues to have problems.

• As of 2009, a majority of American citizens see the Iraq War as a waste of the last 6+ years, a waste of the 4,000 American soldiers killed, believe Iraq has nothing to do with the “War on Terror,” and believe we should remove our soldiers from the country immediately.

• However, others say one of the main reasons we have not had another Sept. 11th attack is because we removed Saddam Hussein from power before he had the chance to harm the United States, and believe that we should stay in Iraq until it is safe – no matter how long that takes.

President Obama Changes Policy

• Current 142,000 troops will be reduced to 25-30,000 by end of 2010.– Iraqi Army / police will take

on more responsibility– US troops will be based

outside of cities• For support of Iraqi troops

• US troops will leave Iraq by end of 2011

Iraq So Far• Saddam Hussein

captured– Tried and executed

• 4,287 US troops killed• Over 30,000 US

troops wounded• Over 60,000 Iraqi’s

killed• $657 Billion so far

Budgetary Costs to Government

• Spending to date – $646 billion, Congressional Budget Office

• Total estimated spending thru 2017– Best case $1.7 trillion.– More probable $2.7 trillion.

Congressional Research Service estimate

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Operating costs

• The monthly “burn rate” or the war has been rising– 4.4 billion in 2003– 8 billion in 2006– 12 billion in 2007 – to an estimated 16 billion in 2008

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Predicted spending on wartime operations (thru 2017)

• Conservative estimate 521 billion

• Realistic moderate estimate 913 billion

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Military equipment replacement and repair

• Conservative estimate 132 billion

• Realistic moderate estimate 404 billion

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Sunk costs?

Additional Cost of Health Care

• Increasing demand for VA support

13,822

56,703

103,544

155,272

209,308

263,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

VA Health Care Each Year, FY 2003-2008

Source: U.S. House of representatives budget committee, based on U.S. department of veterans affairs.

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Disability Pay• Best case $422

billion

• Long-term $717 billion

• 31% of soldiers who have returned filed disability claims and expected to increase

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Cost of Demobilization

• We face a rapidly rising monthly cost to fund the war currently over 12 billion/month.– Estimated 16 billion/month in 2008

• Better estimates will follow upcoming presidential election

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Interest Payments on Debt

• US indebtedness at end of 2008 excess of $900 billion

• Including cumulative interest on the debt-financed war borrowing, exceeds $1.1 trillion

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Economic Cost of Military and Contractor Fatalities

• 3,988 US soldiers have been killed in combat

• Government pays $500,000 to families (death benefit + life insurance)

• Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) $7.2 million

• Rough estimate of loss to U.S. economy is $28 billion due to loss of labor resource

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Economic Cost of the Seriously Injured

• 29,395 soldiers have been injured

• Value of Statistical Injury (VSI) – lost to the economy $6.1 million each

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Accelerated Depreciation of Military Hardware

• Going through equipment six to ten times faster than normal peacetime rate.

• $250-375 billion to rebuild the entire armed services

• 404 Billion - Stiglitz

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Oil

© 2008 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Yearly Basket Price

1995 16.86

1996 20.29

1997 18.68

1998 12.28

1999 17.48

2000 27.6

2001 23.12

2002 24.36

2003 28.1

2004 36.05

2005 50.64

2006 61.08

2007 69.08

2008 92.15

A significant proportion of the increase in the price of oil resulted from the

war

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Direct costs to the U.S. economy

A realistic moderate estimate assumes that $10 per barrel is the price increase due to the war & and the duration of these high oil prices is 8 years.

The U.S. imports around 5 billion barrels a year.

A $10 per barrel increase translates into an extra expenditure of $50 billion per year.

Over the 8 years projected in the realistic moderate estimate, that is $400 billion extra expenditure on oil imports.

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On your Left Side, • At one time, Saddam Hussein was an ally

of the United States and then he became our enemy.

• In a T Chart, identify reasons why some people in Iraq would see Saddam as a hero.

• And identify reasons why others in Iraq and the United States saw Saddam as a criminal.

On your Left Side,

• Playing “Monday Morning Quarterback”, looking back, do you think President Bush should have pursued war against Iraq?

• Why or why not?