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History of Computing History of Computing CSE P590A (UW) CSE P590A (UW) PP190/290 PP190/290 - - 3 (UCB) 3 (UCB) CSE 290 291 (D00) CSE 290 291 (D00) Ed Lazowska, University of Washington Steve Maurer, UC Berkeley Geoff Voelker, UC San Diego
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History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Jun 28, 2020

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Page 1: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

His

tory

of C

ompu

ting

His

tory

of C

ompu

ting

CS

E P

590A

(UW

)C

SE

P59

0A (U

W)

PP

190/

290

PP

190/

290 --

3 (U

CB

)3

(UC

B)

CS

E 2

90 2

91 (D

00)

CS

E 2

90 2

91 (D

00)

Ed L

azow

ska,

Uni

vers

ity o

f Was

hing

ton

Stev

e M

aure

r, U

C B

erke

ley

Geo

ff Vo

elke

r, U

C S

an D

iego

Page 2: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Vie

wpo

int

-Bey

ond

Her

oes

and

Myt

holo

gy-W

hat W

orke

d, W

hat D

idn�

t, an

d W

hy.

-(Fo

r Bus

ines

s)-F

or P

ublic

Pol

icy

Page 3: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

A V

ery

Sim

ple

Pol

icy

Mod

elTh

e C

omm

issa

r Mod

el: (

v �

c) >

0

Cho

osin

g In

cent

ives

to G

et T

here

�No

dom

inan

t inc

entiv

e m

echa

nism

.�

Vie

wpo

int

Page 4: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

A H

isto

ry o

f (v

�c)

to 1

970:

A H

isto

ry o

f �v.

�Te

chno

logy

impr

oves

.S

ocie

ty u

ses

mor

e da

ta.

Inve

ntor

s no

tice

exis

ting

uses

.

A H

isto

ry o

f �c.

�S

prea

ding

R&

D c

osts

ove

r big

ger

mar

kets

.G

ears

, vac

uum

tube

sIn

tegr

ated

circ

uits

and

softw

are.

Pre

view

Page 5: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Lect

ure

1: C

ompu

ting

to 1

940

Step

hen

M. M

aure

rG

oldm

an S

choo

l of P

ublic

Pol

icy

smau

rer@

berk

eley

.edu

Page 6: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pre

hist

ory:

Dat

a &

Civ

iliza

tion

Page 7: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

An

hone

st m

an h

as h

ardl

y ne

ed to

co

unt m

ore

than

his

ten

finge

rs, o

r, in

ex

trem

e ca

ses,

he

may

add

his

toes

an

d lu

mp

the

rest

. I s

ay, l

et o

ur a

ffairs

be

as

two

or th

ree,

and

not

as

a hu

ndre

d or

a th

ousa

nd; i

nste

ad o

f a

milli

on c

ount

hal

f a d

ozen

, and

kee

p yo

ur a

ccou

nts

on y

our t

hum

bnai

l.�

-Hen

ry D

avid

Tho

reau

Page 8: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

The

�v� i

n (v

-c)

.D

ata

for G

over

nanc

e-I

rriga

tion

Cul

ture

s (c

a.30

00 B

C)

-Egy

pt (c

a.15

00 B

C)

-Rom

an Im

peria

l Hou

seho

ld

(1st

Cen

tury

AD

)

Pre

hist

ory

Page 9: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Dat

a fo

r the

Mili

tary

-Milit

ary

payb

ooks

(150

0 B

C)

-Phi

lip II

(382

�28

6 B

C)

and

Ale

xand

er (3

56 �

323

BC

)-P

tole

my

I (d.

246

BC

)

Pre

hist

ory

Page 10: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Dat

a fo

r Res

earc

h-A

risto

tle (3

84 �

322

BC

)~

400

book

s-L

ibra

ry o

f Ale

xand

ria (2

83 B

C)

750,

000

papy

ri

Pre

hist

ory

Page 11: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Col

laps

e:

Dar

k A

ges

(AD

476

�10

00)

Med

ieva

l Life

Ren

aiss

ance

(14t

h�

16th

Cen

turie

s A

D)

War

fare

& C

omm

erce

Pre

hist

ory

Page 12: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ree

mer

genc

eC

omm

erce

, Sta

tes,

Em

pire

sP

hilip

II (1

527

�15

98)

18 h

our w

orkd

ays

Inbo

x: 2

000

pp./d

ayO

utbo

x: 3

00 m

emos

/day

.

Thirt

y Y

ears

� War

(161

8 �

1648

)G

usta

vus

Ado

lfus

(159

4 �

1632

).

Pre

hist

ory

Page 13: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

And

som

ethi

ng n

ew: B

ig S

cien

ce P

robl

ems

Tych

oB

rahe

(154

6 �

1601

)C

ompu

ting

Trig

Fun

ctio

nsW

ilhel

m S

chic

kard

(162

3 �

24)

Pro

fess

or o

f Mat

hem

atic

s, A

stro

nom

y an

d H

ebre

wD

esig

ned

mac

hine

for K

eple

rth

at c

ould

add

, sub

tract

, mul

tiply

, and

div

ide.

Sour

ce:h

ttp://

ww

w.g

ris.u

ni-tu

ebin

gen.

de/p

roje

cts/

schi

ckar

d/in

dex.

htm

l

Page 14: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Orig

ins:

17th

�18

thC

entu

ries

Page 15: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Bla

ise

Pas

cal (

1623

�62

)M

athe

mat

ical

Pro

digy

W

heel

barro

wH

ydra

ulic

Pre

ssB

arom

eter

Pro

babi

lity

Theo

ry

Page 16: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Etie

nne

Pas

cal�s

Tax

Hea

dach

e

Pro

toty

pe (1

642)

& P

aten

t (16

45)

Add

ing

and

Sub

tract

ing

Page 17: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark
Page 18: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Bus

ines

s P

lan

Dem

onst

ratio

ns &

Fin

anci

ng50

�Pas

calin

es� b

uilt

thro

ugh

1652

Cos

t: 10

0 liv

res

each

.

Slo

w, t

empe

ram

enta

l.

Page 19: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Con

cept

: 167

1D

efin

itive

Mac

hine

: 169

4

Got

tfrie

d Le

ibni

tz(1

643

�17

16)

Page 20: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Goa

l: �It

is u

nwor

thy

of e

xcel

lent

men

to

lose

hou

rs li

ke s

lave

s in

the

labo

r of

cal

cula

tion,

whi

ch c

ould

eas

ily b

e pa

ssed

on

to a

nyon

e el

se if

mac

hine

s w

ere

used

.�

Ince

ntiv

es: A

ide

to E

lect

or-A

rchb

isho

p of

Mai

ntz

Got

tfrie

d Le

ibni

tz

Page 21: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Why

Did

n�t I

t Wor

k?Te

chno

logy

Gea

rs: T

oler

ance

s, S

lack

and

Bin

ding

.P

erfo

rman

ce In

adeq

uate

?A

Circ

ular

Arg

umen

t?

Eco

nom

ics

Spr

eadi

ng R

&D

Cos

tsW

as th

e M

arke

t Big

Eno

ugh?

How

Muc

h C

ompu

ting

Did

the

Wor

ld

Nee

d?

Pol

icy

Page 22: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Thom

as d

e C

olm

ar(1

820)

Arit

hmom

eter

7 fig

ure

accu

racy

, $15

0 ea

ch.

Eng

inee

rs a

nd in

sura

nce

com

pani

es.

Ris

e of

Big

Bus

ines

s:

Nab

isco

(189

3), T

rave

lers

Insu

ranc

e (1

883)

, Fi

rem

en�s

Fun

d (1

863)

, Alc

oa (1

888)

Dor

r E. F

elt (

1887

) K

eybo

ard

Com

ptom

eter

19th

Cen

tury

Seq

uel

Page 23: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Willi

am S

. Bur

roug

hsB

urro

ughs

Add

ing

Mac

hine

Com

pany

, lat

er U

nysi

s

Prin

ting

calc

ulat

ors

Sol

d to

ban

ks a

nd c

lear

ing

hous

es a

t $22

0 ea

ch.

1,00

0 m

achi

nes/

year

by

1900

.13

0,00

0 m

achi

nes/

year

by

1908

.58

Mod

els,

�One

Bui

lt fo

r Eve

ry L

ine

of B

usin

ess�

Suc

cess

: Im

prov

ed te

chno

logy

bas

e.M

arke

t pen

etra

tion

is (r

easo

nabl

y) fa

st.

R&

D c

an n

ow b

e sp

read

ove

r hug

e m

arke

ts.

A R

obus

t Tec

hnol

ogy

The

Man

hatta

n P

roje

ct

20th

Cen

tury

Seq

uel

Page 24: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

A S

ucce

ss S

tory

for P

aten

ts?

Det

erm

inin

g pr

ivat

e ne

eds.

But

: (v

�c)

for v

ery

expe

nsiv

e in

vent

ions

.B

ut: e

x an

tevs

. ex

post

effic

ienc

y.B

ut: G

over

nmen

t as

buye

r?B

ut: F

inan

cing

and

info

rmat

ion

asym

met

ry.Pol

icy

Page 25: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

19th

Cen

tury

:Th

e Id

ea o

f Com

pute

rs

Page 26: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pre

-His

tory

Myt

h: H

aeph

estu

s, G

olem

, Alb

ertu

sM

agnu

sLi

brar

y of

Ale

xand

riaM

edie

val C

lock

sLe

onar

do D

aVin

ci(1

452-

1519

)Ju

lian

Turia

nno

(ca.

155

6)H

ans

Bul

lman

(ca.

154

7)R

ene

Des

carte

s &

�Sou

lless

Mac

hine

ry�

From

Aut

omat

a to

Wea

ving

Page 27: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Bas

il B

ouch

onP

unch

ed C

ards

(178

5)

De

Vau

cans

on(1

709

�82

)A

utom

ata

Dire

ctor

of S

tate

Silk

Mill

s (1

741)

Page 28: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Jose

ph M

arie

Jac

quar

d (1

752

�18

34)

Fish

ing

net m

achi

ne �

Priz

e an

d pa

tent

Pat

tern

Loo

m (1

806)

�Pr

ize

+ R

oyal

tyLy

ons

Rio

ts (1

810)

11,0

00 lo

oms

in o

pera

tion

by 1

812

Page 29: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pol

icy

Ser

endi

pity

: Pla

ythi

ngs

turn

out

to b

e us

eful

Pat

ents

won

�t w

ork

-Pat

rona

ge a

nd re

puta

tion

Lead

use

rs?

Late

Sta

ge In

nova

tion

Pat

ents

vs.

Priz

es

Page 30: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Cha

rles

Bab

bage

Page 31: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Cha

rles

Babb

age

(179

2 �

1871

)B

anki

ng/E

stab

lishm

ent r

oots

Obs

essi

ons:

Aut

omat

a, M

ista

kes,

Stre

et M

usic

ians

.O

ther

Pro

ject

sC

hess

Pla

yer

Pen

ny P

ost

Act

uaria

l tab

les

Spe

edom

eter

Cow

catc

her

Phy

sics

, Geo

logy

, Mat

hem

atic

sLu

casi

anPr

ofes

sor o

f Mat

hem

atic

s(C

ambr

idge

)

Ada

, Cou

ntes

s of

Lov

elac

e (1

815

�52

)

Page 32: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Diff

eren

ce E

ngin

e

Page 33: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Diff

eren

ce E

ngin

eE

rrors

in T

able

sFi

ring

and

Nav

igat

ion

Tabl

esG

aspa

rdde

Pro

ny(1

755-

1839

)

Page 34: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Met

hod

of D

iffer

ence

sTh

omas

Har

riot(

1560

-162

1)

Num

ber

Cub

e1st

Diff

.2d

Diff

.3rd

Diff

. 1

1

-

---

--2

87

-

---

327

19

12--

464

3718

65

125

6124

66

216

127

36

6

etc.

, etc

....

Page 35: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Diff

eren

ce E

ngin

eId

ea (1

812)

and

Pro

toty

pe (1

820

�22

)R

oyal

Ast

rono

mic

al S

ocie

tyG

rant

s (£

17,0

00),

Not

Pat

ents

For s

ailo

rs a

nd s

chol

ars

�To

lera

nces

Term

inat

ed p

roje

ct in

183

3.

Page 36: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark
Page 37: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Chr

isto

pher

Eva

ns, T

he M

akin

g of

the

Mic

ro: A

His

tory

of t

heC

ompu

ter(

Lond

on 1

981)

Page 38: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Geo

rgS

cheu

tz(1

785

�18

73)

Pro

toty

pe (1

833)

Full

scal

e (P

aris

Exh

ibiti

on 1

853)

-As

trono

my

Brit

ish

copy

(185

9) �

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

tabl

es

Seq

uel

Page 39: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ana

lytic

al E

ngin

e

Page 40: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ana

lytic

al E

ngin

e

A S

team

-pow

ered

, pro

gram

mab

le

mac

hine

Mov

ing

Num

bers

Inst

ead

of Y

arn�

1830

-19

06

Page 41: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Mul

tiply

(ab

+ c)

d=

?

Num

ber

Varia

ble

Ope

ratio

n A

ctio

nC

ard

Car

dC

ard

1Pl

aces

a o

n C

olum

n 1

of S

tore

2Pl

aces

b o

n C

olum

n 2

of S

tore

3Pl

aces

c o

n C

olum

n 3

of S

tore

4Pl

aces

d o

n C

olum

n 4

of S

tore

1B

rings

a fr

om S

tore

to M

ill2

Brin

gs b

from

Sto

re to

Mill

1D

irect

s a

x b

= p

3Ta

kes

p to

col

umn

5 of

Sto

re4

Take

s p

into

Mill

5B

rings

c in

to M

ill2

Dire

cts

p +

c =

q6

Take

s q

to C

olum

n 6

of S

tore

7B

rings

d in

to M

ill8

Brin

gs q

into

Mill

3D

irect

s d

x d

q =

r10

Ta

kes

r to

prin

ter

s

Page 42: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pol

icy

Diff

eren

ce E

ngin

eTe

chni

cal d

iffic

ultie

s?A

sym

met

ric in

form

atio

nG

over

nmen

t ske

ptic

ism

Par

tial S

olut

ion:

Tru

sted

inte

rmed

iarie

sG

rant

s vs

. pat

ents

No

com

mer

cial

val

ueA

Sin

gle

Cus

tom

er, a

Sin

gle

Pro

blem

Judg

ing

Use

r Nee

dsE

x an

te v

s. e

x po

st

Ana

lytic

al E

ngin

e(v

�c)

< 0

?

Page 43: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Her

man

n H

olle

rith

& P

unch

Car

ds (P

t. 1)

Page 44: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Her

man

n H

olle

rith

The

Cen

sus

Cha

lleng

e18

80 C

ensu

sTh

e P

opul

ist I

mpu

lse

Con

sulta

nt to

Cen

sus

Bur

eau

(187

9)

MIT

Pro

fess

or (1

882)

Sta

rted

with

pap

er ta

pe, w

hich

cou

ld n

ot b

e so

rted

Stu

died

Jac

quar

d Lo

oms

Ele

ctro

mec

hani

cal s

olut

ion.

Page 45: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Firs

t Pat

ents

(188

4 �

87)

Rai

sing

Cap

ital

Bro

ther

in la

wTh

e Li

brar

y B

urea

u

Bal

timor

e H

ealth

Dep

t. (1

887)

War

Dep

artm

ent,

New

Yor

k, N

ew J

erse

y he

alth

reco

rds.

Cen

sus

Priz

e C

ompe

titio

n an

d 18

80 C

ensu

s18

90 C

ensu

s �

Ren

ts M

achi

nes

at $

1000

/yea

r +

$10

pena

lty fo

r dow

n tim

e19

00 C

ensu

s �

Com

plai

nts

abou

t �m

onop

oly.

Page 46: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Form

s th

e Ta

bula

ting

Com

pany

Sel

ls to

New

Yor

k C

entra

l (18

93 -

1895

)Fr

ee 6

-mon

th tr

ial.

4m fr

eigh

t bill

s/ye

arP

erfo

rms

addi

tion.

Late

r: Trav

eler

s In

sura

nce

(189

5), F

renc

h C

ensu

s,

Rus

sian

Cen

sus

(189

6), U

S S

teel

and

Mar

shal

l Fi

eld

(190

0), m

ost r

ailw

ays

(190

2).

Page 47: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pro

lifer

atio

n of

dev

ices

(189

3 -1

914)

Acc

umul

ator

, key

punc

h, c

ard

sorte

rs,

addi

ng p

unch

, prin

ter.

Page 48: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pol

icy

Sel

ling

to B

oth

Pub

lic a

nd P

rivat

e S

ecto

rsM

akes

�v� l

arge

eno

ugh

to c

over

�c�?

Who

get

s th

e be

nefit

of c

ivili

an s

ales

?

Asy

mm

etric

Info

rmat

ion

New

Yor

k R

ailw

ay O

ffer

Ren

ting

mac

hine

sIn

tern

al F

inan

cing

& M

arke

t Im

plic

atio

ns

Type

s of

Inno

vatio

nN

ew T

echn

olog

y vs

. Fin

ding

& M

eetin

g U

ser N

eeds

Page 49: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

1900

-19

40

Page 50: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

New

Nee

ds (P

t. 1)

Pro

gres

sive

Gov

ernm

ents

Big

Bus

ines

sFa

ctor

ies,

ste

el m

ills, i

nsur

ance

co

mpa

nies

, ele

ctric

ligh

t, tra

ctio

n,

phon

e, w

hole

sale

com

pani

es, t

extil

e m

ills, a

utom

obile

com

pani

es, r

ailro

ads,

m

unic

ipal

ities

, sta

te g

over

nmen

ts.

Page 51: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pre

-WW

I: La

bor c

osts

, effi

cien

cy re

cord

s,

sale

s di

strib

utio

n, in

tern

al re

quis

ition

s fo

r su

pplie

s an

d m

ater

ials

, pro

duct

ion

stat

istic

s,

day

and

piec

e w

ork,

fire

, life

and

cas

ualty

risk

, pl

ant e

xpen

ditu

res

and

sale

s of

ser

vice

, pub

lic

serv

ice

corp

orat

ions

, dis

tribu

ting

sale

s an

d co

st fi

gure

s to

sal

esm

en; s

peci

al re

ports

.

�Bat

ch P

roce

ssin

g.�

A c

onse

quen

ce o

f (v-

c)?

New

Nee

ds (P

t. 1)

Page 52: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Hol

lerit

hC

td�

Page 53: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

1900

Cen

sus

1901

M

cKin

ley

Ass

assi

natio

n, D

avid

Por

ter f

ired.

1905

Con

gres

s es

tabl

ishe

s $4

0,00

0 R

&D

Uni

t

1906

Cen

sus

Dem

ands

low

er p

rices

Em

ploy

ees

keep

pat

ents

, gov

ernm

ent

rece

ives

free

lice

nse.

1910

C

ensu

s do

es n

ot u

se H

olle

rith

mac

hine

s.

Page 54: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

1911

:Ja

mes

Pow

ers

esta

blis

hes

The

Pow

ers

Tabu

latin

g M

achi

ne C

ompa

ny

(late

r, R

emin

gton

-Ran

d).

Hol

lerit

hS

ell O

ut; M

erge

r for

ms

Com

putin

g Ta

bula

ting

Rec

ordi

ng

Com

pany

(CTR

).

Page 55: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Was

Con

gres

s R

ight

?W

ho b

enef

its fr

om c

omm

erci

al s

ales

?E

x po

st v

s. e

x an

teef

ficie

ncy.

Sch

umpe

teria

n C

ompe

titio

nJo

seph

Sch

umpe

ter (

1883

�19

50)

Inno

vatio

n vs

. Mon

opol

yM

onop

oly

fund

s in

nova

tion

Mon

opol

y is

tem

pora

ryTe

chno

logi

cal r

evol

utio

ns.

Long

-run

effi

cien

cy.

Pol

icy

Page 56: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ana

log

Com

pute

rs

Page 57: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

War

fare

Exa

mpl

e 1:

Firi

ng T

able

sG

ravi

ty, g

roun

d ha

rdne

ss, a

tmos

pher

ic d

ensi

ty,

Cor

iolis

effe

ct, d

ensi

ty c

hang

es w

ith a

ltitu

de.

Fifte

en m

ultip

licat

ions

, squ

are

root

cal

cula

ted

at 0

.1 to

0.0

1 se

cond

inte

rval

s. C

heck

func

tion

ever

y fo

ur c

alcu

latio

ns.

Five

day

s by

han

d.

2-40

00 tr

ajec

torie

s pe

r firi

ng ta

ble

Exa

mpl

e 2:

Ato

mic

& H

ydro

gen

Bom

bs

New

Nee

ds (P

t. 2)

Page 58: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Big

Sci

ence

(Mos

tly a

stro

nom

y)New

Nee

ds (P

t. 2)

Page 59: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

dx

ffd

x

Jam

es C

lerk

Max

wel

l (1

831

�18

79)

Page 60: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Sir

Will

iam

Tho

mso

n, L

ord

Kel

vin

(182

4 �

1907

)

2d o

rder

equ

atio

nsTi

de ta

bles

.

Page 61: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

dx

f

The

Torq

ue p

robl

em

Page 62: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Van

neve

rBus

h(1

890

�19

74)

Page 63: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

1920

s M

achi

neA

ddin

g vo

ltage

s,

Ele

ctric

met

ers

as in

tegr

ator

s

1930

s M

axw

ell M

achi

nes

Ser

vom

otor

s +

Torq

ueA

mpl

ifier

Page 64: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

1930

Diff

eren

tial A

naly

zer

100

tons

, eig

htee

n in

tegr

ator

s20

00 v

acuu

m tu

bes,

150

mot

ors,

200

mile

s of

wiri

ng.

Page 65: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

1935

Diff

eren

tial A

naly

zer

$85,

000

Roc

kefe

ller g

rant

.E

lect

rical

com

pone

nts

Pap

er ta

pe in

stru

ctio

ns

Cyc

lotro

n C

ultu

re: C

opie

s at

Moo

re S

choo

l, A

berd

een,

Cam

brid

ge &

Len

ingr

ad.

Page 66: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pol

icy

Gra

nt F

undi

ngC

yclo

tron

cultu

reN

o ci

vilia

n ap

plic

atio

ns�

Page 67: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

The

Ris

e of

Page 68: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

1914

:Th

omas

J. W

atso

n be

com

es C

EO

Nat

iona

l Cas

h R

egis

ter E

xper

ienc

eC

entra

l adv

ertis

ing,

tech

sup

port,

cr

edit,

and

in-h

ouse

R&

D.

Ant

itrus

t

1921

: P

aten

t War

sR

emin

gton

-Ran

d�s

cris

is

Join

t Mon

opol

y P

ricin

gLi

tigat

ion

and

Pur

chas

es

1924

:C

TR B

ecom

es IB

M19

28:

Sep

arat

e st

anda

rds

Cus

tom

er L

ock-

in.

Thom

as J

. Wat

son,

Sr.

(187

4 -1

956)

Page 69: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Com

petit

ion

with

Pow

ers

spur

s R

&D

.P

aral

lel,

com

petin

g R

&D

team

s

New

Tec

hnol

ogie

sS

ubtra

ctin

g ta

bula

tor (

1928

)Ty

pe 6

00 m

ultip

lyin

g pu

nch

(193

1)Ty

pe 2

85 N

umer

ic P

rintin

g Ta

bula

tor (

1933

) Ty

pe 4

05 A

lpha

betic

Prin

ting

Tabu

lato

r (19

34).

R&

D C

ompe

titio

n

Page 70: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

A C

ompl

ex a

nd C

apab

le T

echn

olog

yTy

pe 4

05 E

lect

ric A

ccou

ntin

g M

achi

ne (1

930)

55,0

00 m

ovin

g pa

rts

75 m

iles

of w

iring

Dom

inan

t dat

a pr

oces

sing

dev

ice

until

19

62.

1500

/yea

r man

ufac

ture

d th

roug

h la

te

1960

s.

R&

D C

ompe

titio

n

Page 71: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

New

Tec

hnol

ogie

s ct

d. �

From

Mec

hani

cal t

oE

lect

rom

echa

nica

l to

Ele

ctro

nic

F =

Ma

Mag

netic

car

d, ta

pe &

dru

m re

sear

ch

(193

0s)

Rep

laci

ng W

heel

s w

ith v

acuu

m tu

bes.

Ele

ctro

nic

adde

r (19

40)

Ele

ctro

nic

mul

tiplie

r circ

uit (

1941

)

R&

D C

ompe

titio

n

Page 72: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

And

New

Use

s�A

n IB

M S

peci

alty

.M

etho

ds R

esea

rch

Dep

artm

ent (

1930

s).

Big

Gov

ernm

ent:

Soc

ial S

ecur

ity �

�The

Wor

lds�

Big

gest

B

ookk

eepi

ng J

ob� (

1936

)

415

mac

hine

s/12

0,00

0 sq

uare

foot

bu

ildin

g.

Als

o: E

mpl

oyer

repo

rting

, pub

lic w

orks

pr

ojec

ts.

IBM

sal

es g

row

from

$26

m

in 1

936

to $

45m

in 1

940.

Page 73: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ant

itrus

t Iss

ues

Inno

vatio

n is

n�t e

very

thin

gE

x an

tevs

. ex

post

effic

ienc

y

Mul

tiple

Tip

ping

Dyn

amic

sIn

tern

al fi

nanc

ing

Rep

utat

ion

Com

plex

pro

duct

s in

a s

mal

l mar

ket

Pat

ents

Bus

ines

s cy

cle

shoc

ksS

tand

ards

and

cus

tom

er lo

ck-in

.R

etur

ns to

R&

D

Page 74: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ant

itrus

t Iss

ues

Ret

urns

to R

&D

Price

Qua

ntity

Cos

t

Prof

it

Page 75: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ant

itrus

t Iss

ues

Ret

urns

to R

&D

W

L

Rew

ard

= L

x W

Page 76: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ant

itrus

t Iss

ues

Car

ds a

nd L

easi

ngLe

asin

gIn

tern

al fi

nanc

ing/

info

rmat

ion

asym

met

ry?

Bar

rier t

o en

try?

Thre

e bn

. car

ds/y

ear.

Pric

e di

scrim

inat

ion

Car

ds a

nd T

he D

epre

ssio

n.C

ards

as

Sta

ndar

ds

1936

Con

sent

Dec

ree

85%

Sha

re b

y la

te 1

930s

.

Page 77: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Aca

dem

ic In

tera

ctio

ns

Usi

ng T

abul

ator

s to

do

com

plex

sci

entif

ic

calc

ulat

ions

.M

achi

ne-g

rade

d Te

sts

(192

8)D

iffer

ence

Met

hods

(192

9)Th

omas

J. W

atso

n A

stro

nom

ical

Com

putin

g B

urea

u (C

olum

bia

U.)

Cal

cula

tion

Con

trol S

witc

h (1

936)

Cam

-driv

en s

eque

nce

of a

rithm

etic

al

oper

atio

ns

Page 78: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Aca

dem

ic In

tera

ctio

nsH

owar

d A

iken

(190

0 �

1973

)A

trip

to H

arva

rd�s

Atti

cA

n el

ectro

mec

hani

cal m

achi

ne fo

r cal

cula

ting

trigo

nom

etric

func

tions

and

exp

onen

tials

. $1

00,0

00 e

stim

ate

(193

9)$4

00,0

00 p

rice

tag

(194

3).

Page 79: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Aca

dem

ic In

tera

ctio

nsH

arva

rd M

ark

I Com

pute

r�B

abba

ge�s

Dre

am C

ome

True

� B

ut: N

o �if

� bra

nch.

Pap

er ta

pe +

1,7

28 c

ount

er w

heel

sB

ut: v

acuu

m tu

bes

for s

tora

ge.

Whe

els

mac

hine

d to

1/1

00,0

00 in

ch.

5 to

ns, 5

1 fe

et lo

ng, 5

30 m

iles

of w

iring

.�L

ike

the

roar

of a

text

ile m

ill�

Page 80: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pol

icy

Sch

umpe

teria

n C

ompe

titio

nA

n U

nsta

ble

Wor

ld?

Aca

dem

ic E

xplo

ratio

nE

xtra

ctin

g be

nefit

s fro

m IB

M�s

mon

opol

y?Le

ad u

sers

?

Page 81: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

The

Wor

ld a

t 194

0(v

-c)

Look

ing

at v

: G

over

nanc

e, M

ilita

ry, S

cien

ce, C

omm

erce

.C

ompu

ters

focu

sed

on m

ilita

ry p

robl

ems.

Gra

nt fu

ndin

g fo

r Mili

tary

& S

cien

ceS

chum

pete

rian

dyna

mic

s fo

r Gov

erna

nce

and

Com

mer

ce

Look

ing

at c

:B

egin

ning

to u

se v

acuu

m tu

bes

and

rela

ys.

Mod

estc

ost s

avin

gs.

Mar

gina

lcos

t is

high

.A

few

larg

e m

achi

nes.

Page 82: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Com

ing

Attr

actio

ns

V:

Tech

nolo

gy: T

rue

com

pute

rs, n

ew c

apab

ilitie

s.N

ew U

ses:

Fi

ndin

g a

civi

lian

mar

ket.

C:

Falli

ng C

osts

: Vac

uum

tube

s, s

oftw

are,

in

tegr

ated

circ

uits

.

Sch

umpe

teria

n co

mpe

titio

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ntin

ues�

Page 83: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

War

time

Page 84: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ove

rvie

w

Van

neva

rBus

h an

d O

SR

DW

orld

War

I E

xper

ienc

eO

rgan

izin

g W

ork

the

Big

Sci

ence

Way

Ultr

a, B

letc

hley

Par

k &

All

That

Col

ossu

s (1

500

vacu

um tu

bes)

Stib

bitz

and

EN

IAC

Page 85: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Geo

rge

R. S

tibitz

Bel

l Lab

s (1

937)

Tele

phon

e R

elay

s B

inar

y A

rithm

etic

K-M

odel

(193

8)

Mod

el 1

(193

9) -

$20,

000

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els

2-5

(194

0 -4

5)P

aper

tape

, err

or c

heck

ing,

mul

tiplic

atio

n ta

bles

, &st

orag

e re

gist

ers.

NA

CA

and

Abe

rdee

n

Page 86: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ele

ctro

nic

Logi

c

01

11

10

01

10

10

00

00

SC

BA

Flip

-Flo

p

Bin

ary

Arit

hmet

ic

Hal

f-Add

er

S =

Axo

rBC

= A

andB

S

A

B

Vacu

um T

ube

(Or R

elay

s or

Tran

sist

ors)

Page 87: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Ata

naso

ff-B

erry

John

Vin

cent

Ata

nass

ofC

liffo

rd

Ber

ry

�AB

C C

ompu

ter�

Iow

a S

tate

(193

7 �

39)

Arit

hmet

ic �

Bas

e 2

Logi

c

Mem

ory

�D

rum

, Con

dens

ers

+ �J

oggi

ng�

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put

�C

ards

No

�if� s

tate

men

t.

Pro

pose

d 30

0 va

cuum

tube

m

achi

ne w

as n

ever

com

plet

ed.

Page 88: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Kon

rad

Zuse

Z1

Bin

ary

Add

ition

(193

6).

Mec

hani

cal,

punc

hed

tape

. Z2

R

elay

s (1

940)

.Z3

P

rogr

amm

able

(194

1).

2600

rela

ys.

Z4

Ref

ined

Z3

(194

5)20

00 v

acuu

m tu

bes.

Page 89: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

EN

IAC

1939

: Fus

es in

stea

d of

vac

uum

tu

bes.

1941

: An

elec

troni

c D

iffer

entia

l A

naly

zer

-$48

6,80

4.22

-200

,000

man

hou

rs

174k

w, 1

7468

vac

uum

tube

s,

500,

000

sold

ered

join

ts, 7

0,00

0 re

sist

ors,

10,

000

capa

cito

rs.

Com

plet

ed in

the

Fall

of 1

945,

use

d on

�The

Sup

er.�

John

Mau

chly

Pre

sper

Eck

ert

Page 90: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

EN

IAC

Mat

h U

nits

20 a

ccum

ulat

ors

Flip

flop

�whe

els�

+ T

able

s

Mem

ory

Pro

gram

P

lug

boar

d,ca

bles

,sw

itche

s.

Page 91: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark
Page 92: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

The

Sof

twar

e C

once

ptTh

e m

agne

tic d

rum

/dis

k id

ea (1

944)

John

von

Neu

man

n (1

903

�19

57)

Firs

t Dra

ft of

a R

epor

t on

the

ED

VA

C (1

945)

Look

ing

Ahe

ad

Page 93: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Pol

icy

The

War

time

Res

earc

h M

iracl

eO

SR

D, N

atio

nal L

abs

Mon

eyTh

e R

esea

rch

Bac

klog

+ F

ocus

ed P

roje

cts

Indu

stry

/Aca

dem

ic C

oope

ratio

nB

ig S

cien

ce R

esea

rch

Mod

el�

and

War

time

Eth

ics?

Page 94: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

A R

ole

For P

aten

ts?

Eck

ert a

nd M

auch

lyle

ave

The

Moo

re

Sch

ool.

An

esse

ntia

l inc

entiv

e?C

omm

erci

al v

s. a

cade

mic

mac

hine

s.

S. R

eid

War

ren

(Moo

re S

choo

l):�[T

he

Sch

ool�s

pat

ent p

olic

y] w

as v

ery,

ver

y na

ïve.

We

didn

�t go

out

of o

ur w

ay to

he

lp p

eopl

e, a

nd o

ur g

ener

al a

ttitu

de

was

, �Le

t�s m

ake

it so

it�s

hel

pful

to th

e hu

man

race

and

so

on.��

Pol

icy

Page 95: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

The

Wor

ld a

t 194

5

(v-c

)Lo

okin

g at

v:

Gov

erna

nce,

Mili

tary

, Sci

ence

, Com

mer

ce.

Com

pute

rs fo

cuse

d on

mili

tary

pro

blem

s.

Look

ing

at c

:E

lect

roni

cs: V

acuu

m tu

bes

and

rela

ys.

Mod

estc

ost s

avin

gs.

Mar

gina

lcos

t is

high

.A

few

larg

e m

achi

nes.

Win

ner t

ake

all d

ynam

ics

Sch

umpe

teria

n C

ompe

titio

n?

Page 96: History of Computing - University of Washington · Data for Research - Aristotle (384 Œ 322 BC) ~ 400 books - Library of Alexandria (283 BC) 750,000 papyri Prehistory Collapse: Dark

Com

ing

Attr

actio

ns

Look

ing

at v

:Te

chno

logy

: Tru

e co

mpu

ters

, new

cap

abili

ties.

New

Use

s:

Find

ing

a ci

vilia

n m

arke

t.

Look

ing

at c

: Fa

lling

Cos

ts: I

nteg

rate

d ci

rcui

ts a

nd s

oftw

are.

Sch

umpe

teria

n co

mpe

titio

n co

ntin

ues�

Pol

icy

Leve

rsM

ilita

ry s

pend

ing.

Ant

itrus

t (ag

ain)

.