Page 1 ISO Public Historical RA export from NWPP to CAISO An analysis of CAISO-contracted Resource Adequacy import California ISO May 29, 2020
Page 1ISO Public
Historical RA export from NWPP to CAISOAn analysis of CAISO-contracted Resource Adequacy import
California ISO
May 29, 2020
Page 2ISO Public
Table of contents
Introduction
Limit
Capacity
Usage
Summary
3
2
6
5
5
slides
Page 3ISO Public
CAISO analysis on contracted Resource Adequacy
imports from the Northwest Power Pool
Key slides are marked by star
• In response to a request made by the Northwest Power Pool (NWPP), the
CAISO prepared this analysis of Resource Adequacy (RA) imports. The
analysis is based on historical data of CAISO RA import contracts and
energy flows between the NWPP and CAISO footprints
• The NWPP request was made as part of an effort being undertaken by the
NWPP to assess the resource adequacy of the NWPP region and the
potential benefits of forming an RA program for the NWPP footprint
• This analysis is based on historic data that are aggregated to a regional
level, such that it does not disclose any entity-specific confidential
information of contractual or operational data
• The analysis is a historic lookback only and does not draw any conclusions
with respect to future RA contracting or energy flows between the regions
Page 4ISO Public
Footprint of Northwest Power Pool (NWPP)
Source: “Northwest Power Pool Reliability through Cooperation”, presentation by NWPP, 2013
Northwest
NEVP + PACE
BANC + TIDC
NWPP
WECC BAAs
Source: CAISO
Page 5ISO Public
Capacity UsageLimit
ScheduleContractImport capability
CAISO import
Terminology
CAISO BA
External BAs
Usage
e-Tag interchange schedule
RA
Usage Non-RA
Transmission
facility rating
RA import: Usage Capacity Limit
Limit
Main portion of MIC
RAMaximum import
capability (MIC)
Contracted capacity
Capacity RA
Page 6ISO Public
Table of contents
Introduction
Limit
Capacity
Usage
Summary
3
2
6
5
5
slides
Page 7ISO Public
CAISO maximum import capability (MIC)A major portion of MIC is RA import capability, i.e. the “limit”
California ISO
Maximum import capability (MIC)
Note: The breakdown of RA import capability is estimated from tie-points’ possible association with source BAs
* “Maybe from NWPP”: These are imports through tie-points around the CA-NV-AZ border. Through these tie-points, import can come either from NWPP or elsewhere like Southwest
Maximum possible
CAISO RA import
MIC“Limit”
“Contract”
3.
2.
1.
Not from NWPP
From NWPP BANC+TIDC
From NWPP NEVP+PACE
From NWPP Northwest
Maybe from NWPP*
Source of MIC data: http://www.caiso.com/planning/Pages/ReliabilityRequirements/Default.aspx
Page 8ISO Public
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Historical data Estimates for future
MW
Limit of CAISO RA import (MW)
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-NP? NWPP-BT
“Limit” of CAISO RA importEstimated portion of RA import capability from “NWPP-”
MIC
Limit Total RA import capability
Limit RA import capability from “NWPP-” (This is an approximate limit)
CAISO RA import capability is about 10,000 MW
Maybe from NWPP
Scope of “NWPP-”NWPP excluding CA BAAs
CAISO RA import capability from “NWPP-” is about 5,000 MW
Page 9ISO Public
Table of contents
Introduction
Limit
Capacity
Usage
Summary
3
2
6
5
5
slides
Page 10ISO Public
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW)
“Capacity” of CAISO RA import
According to MIC:
Maximum possible RA import
According to CIRA[Note]:
CAISO-contracted RA import capacity
Capacity
Limit
~7,000 MW
~3,000 MW
Monthly peak load drives the contracted RA capacity
There is an increasing trend of RA contracting (see next slide for detailed discussions)
[Note] CIRA (Customer Interface for Resource Adequacy) data are commercially sensitive and not publically available. To protect confidentiality, this analysis describes aggregated data
Page 11ISO Public
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Capacity average: Total (MW)
Dec Jan Feb Spacing Jun Jul Aug Sep
Trends of CAISO-contracted RA import capacitySummer and winter months
Winter Summer+
Winter
Sep
AugJul
Jun
Jan
DecFeb Winter
Late summer (early autumn)
Mid summer
Early summer
RA contracting increased
over the past few years
However, the increase was
only for summer months,
not for winter months
Page 12ISO Public
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW)
According to MIC:
Maximum possible RA import
According to CIRA:
CAISO-contracted RA import capacity
Contract
Limit
~3,000 MW
~7,000 MW
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW)
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-NP? NWPP-BT Non-NWPP
Maybe from NWPP-NPFrom NWPP-NP
= + +?NWPP-
How much does CAISO-contracted RA capacity come from NWPP-?
See also Limit on Slide 8 and Usage on Slide 17
Limit Total
TotalCapacity~3,000 MW
Headroom
Limit From NWPP-Approximate
CapacityApproximate From NWPP-
~800 MW
Areas:
NWPP-NW: Northwest
NWPP-NP: NEVP+PACE
NWPP-BT: BANC+TIDC
Non-NWPP: Not from NWPP
“NWPP-”: NWPP excluding CA BAAs
Page 13ISO Public
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW) in 2019
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-NP? NWPP-BT Non-NWPP
Capacity of CAISO RA import in year 2019
Areas:
NWPP-NW: Northwest
NWPP-NP: NEVP+PACE
NWPP-BT: BANC+TIDC
Non-NWPP: Not from NWPP
“NWPP-”: NWPP excluding CA BAAs
Maybe from NWPP-NPFrom NWPP-NPVery small, can hardly be seen on the chart
= + +?NWPP-
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Composition in percentages
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-NP? NWPP-BT Non-NWPP
Limit
Total Capacity
From NWPP-Capacity
Total
Limit From NWPP-
~3,000 MW
~800 MW
Headroom
See also Usage on Slide 18 and Slide 19
Page 14ISO Public
66,405
0
30,000
60,000
90,000NWPP net load (MW)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW)
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-NP? NWPP-BT Non-NWPP
Mon, Dec 16 Tue, Dec 17 Wed, Dec 18 Thu, Dec 19 Fri, Dec 20 Sat, Dec 21 Sun, Dec 22
Capacity of CAISO RA import in winter timeDuring NWPP’s winter peak in 2019
Dec 18, 2019 5pm
See also Usage on Slide 20
Limit
TotalCapacity
From NWPP-Capacity
Total
Limit From NWPP-
Page 15ISO Public
69,501
0
30,000
60,000
90,000NWPP net load (MW)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000Capacity of CAISO RA import (MW)
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-NP? NWPP-BT Non-NWPP
Mon, Sep 2 Tue, Sep 3 Wed, Sep 4 Thu, Sep 5 Fri, Sep 6 Sat, Sep 7 Sun, Sep 8
Capacity of CAISO RA import in summer timeDuring NWPP’s summer peak in 2019
5pmSep 5, 2019
See also Usage on Slide 21
Limit
TotalCapacity
From NWPP-Capacity
Total
Limit From NWPP-
~800 MW
~3,000 MW
Page 16ISO Public
Table of contents
Introduction
Limit
Capacity
Usage
Summary
3
2
6
5
5
slides
Page 17ISO Public
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CAISO RA import (MW)
“Usage” of CAISO RA import
Usage data from 2015 to 2017 are not available
UsageNon-RA
UsageRA
LimitRA
CapacityRA
See also Capacity on Slide 10 and Slide 12[Note] Details of interchange schedules are commercially sensitive information. To protect confidentiality, this analysis describes aggregated data
Page 18ISO Public
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
CAISO RA import (MW) in 2019
Usage of CAISO RA import in 2019
LimitRA
CapacityRA
See also Capacity on Slide 13
RA
Non-RA Usage
Usage
Page 19ISO Public
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
CAISO RA import (MW) in 2019
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-BT Non-NWPP
Usage of CAISO RA import in 2019 – Detailed breakdown
RA
Non-RA Usage
Usage
CapacityRA
LimitRA
See also Capacity on Slide 13
Areas:
NWPP-NW: Northwest
NWPP-NP: NEVP+PACE
NWPP-BT: BANC+TIDC
Non-NWPP: Not from NWPP
“NWPP-”: NWPP excluding CA BAAs
Page 20ISO Public
66,405
0
30,000
60,000
90,000NWPP net load (MW)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000Usage of CAISO RA import (MW)
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-BT Non-NWPP
Mon, Dec 16 Tue, Dec 17 Wed, Dec 18 Thu, Dec 19 Fri, Dec 20 Sat, Dec 21 Sun, Dec 22
Usage of CAISO RA import in winter timeDuring NWPP’s winter peak in 2019
Dec 18, 2019 5pm
See also Capacity on Slide 14
Usage
Usage
LimitRA
CapacityRA
Non-RA
RA
Page 21ISO Public
69,501
0
30,000
60,000
90,000NWPP net load (MW)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000Usage of CAISO RA import (MW)
NWPP-NW NWPP-NP NWPP-BT Non-NWPP
Mon, Sep 2 Tue, Sep 3 Wed, Sep 4 Thu, Sep 5 Fri, Sep 6 Sat, Sep 7 Sun, Sep 8
Usage of CAISO RA import in summer timeDuring NWPP’s summer peak in 2019
5pmSep 5, 2019
See also Capacity on Slide 15
Non-RA
Usage
RA
Usage
LimitRA
CapacityRA
Page 22ISO Public
Table of contents
Introduction
Limit
Capacity
Usage
Summary
3
2
6
5
5 slides
Page 23ISO Public
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
CAISO RA import: Limit-Capacity-Usage
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1,561 1,360 1,414
614 2680
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
Headroom for possible more RA capacity to be contracted
Putting it all togetherRA import 1 of 4: From NWPP-NW (Northwest)
Usage
Capacity
Limit
Average
Maximum
Minimum
NWPP-NW
Amount of contracted RA import is significant
Limited headroom is left
Usage data from 2015 to 2017 are not available
Page 24ISO Public
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
CAISO RA import: Limit-Capacity-Usage
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2,0731,696
1,121 1,123 1,057
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
Headroom for possible more RA capacity to be contracted
Putting it all togetherRA import 2 of 4: From NWPP-BT (BANC+TIDC)
Cont’d
Usage
Capacity
Limit
NWPP-BT
Amount of contracted RA import is insignificant
A lot of headroom is still available
Usage data from 2015 to 2017 are not available
Page 25ISO Public
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
CAISO RA import: Limit-Capacity-Usage
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
308 253 440 359 2550
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
Headroom for possible more RA capacity to be contracted
Putting it all togetherRA import 3 of 4: From NWPP-NP (NEVP+PACE)
Usage
Capacity
Limit
NWPP-NP
These contracts come either from NWPP-NP or Non-NWPP
Imagine X% of these contracts comes from NWPP-NP
That portion shall be added to the charts on the left
NWPP-NP
Non-NWPP
Cont’d
Amount of contracted RA import is insignificant
Headroom is still available
Usage data from 2015 to 2017 are not available
Page 26ISO Public
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
CAISO RA import: Limit-Capacity-Usage
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1,8521,281 1,351
954 720
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
MW
Headroom for possible more RA capacity to be contracted
Putting it all togetherRA import 4 of 4: From Non-NWPP (Other area)
Usage
Capacity
Limit
Non-NWPP
Average
Maximum
Minimum
These contracts come either from NWPP-NP or Non-NWPP
Imagine Y% of these contracts comes from Non-NWPP
That portion shall be added to the charts on the left
NWPP-NP
Non-NWPP
Cont’d
Amount of contracted RA import is significant
Headroom is still available
Usage data from 2015 to 2017 are not available
Page 27ISO Public
Summary
This work reviewed multi-year historical data of CAISO RA import
Historical patterns and trends are analyzed
“Limit”, “Capacity” and “Usage” are investigated
Past-years’ historical data do not necessarily reflect future trends
Caution shall be exercised when extrapolating data into future years
Breakdown is shown for portions of RA export from NWPP to CAISO
Page 28ISO Public
Stay connected
Sign up for the
Daily Briefing at
www.caiso.com
Download ISO Today
mobile app@California_ISO
THANK YOU
Contact:
Xiaobo Wang, PhD
Senior Advisor
E-mail: [email protected]
Phone: (916) 608-1264