Historical land use and vegetation condition

Historical land use and vegetation condition

Richard Thackway

Presentation to SEWPAC Canberra 22 January 2013

Outline

• Drivers for vegetation condition information• Concepts and definitions• Background to VAST framework• Why VAST-2 was developed• VAST-2 methodology • Case studies• Current applications• Lessons • Next steps

Drivers for information on changes in vegetation condition

• NRM policy and program design e.g.

– Implementing guidelines for conservation and management of threatened species

EPBC ACT

– Reporting on the performance of investment e.g. changing LMP to improve

landscape connectivity

– Assessing land acquisitions for the National Reserve System

• Resource condition of native vegetation e.g.

– A measure of sustainable use and management (public & private)

• Monitoring and reporting and improvement e.g.

– National, state & regional reporting e.g. SoE & SOFR

– Reporting 5 yearly outcomes Regional Forest Agreements

What is vegetation transformation?

• Change over time as a consequence of impacts of land use and land management practices

• Change recorded relative to a reference state for a plant community – Structure– Composition – Regenerative capacity/potential

• Change recorded at sites and across regions/landscapes

Vegetation condition

Based on Cannon (1987)

Baseline for assessing change First contact with explorers

Based on Cannon (1987), Readers Digest. Plotted using IBRA regions

Models of ecosystem change

Source: Adamson and Fox (1982).

Time

Chan

ge in

veg

etati

on in

dica

tor

Settlement

10000

Reference

Occupation

Relaxation

Anthropogenic change

Net impact

Time

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Based on Hamilton, Brown & Nolan 2008. FWPA PRO7.1050. pg 18Land use impacts on biodiversity and Life Cycle Analysis

Reference

Models of ecosystem changeCh

ange

in v

eget

ation

indi

cato

r

Background to Vegetation Assets States and Transitions (VAST) framework

National spatial data initiatives • National Reserve System (NRS):

Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation of Australia (IBRA)• National Land and Water Resources Audit (NLWRA): Vegetation

of Australia; – National Vegetation Information System (NVIS); and – Indicators of resource condition (vegetation extent, type & condition)

• Major information gaps re the condition of vegetation (spatial & temporal)

Pre-European vegetation

Source: NVIS MVGSEWPAC

Present vegetation – 2007 – snap shot

Source: NVIS MVGSEWPAC

Assessing change using

NVIS MVG

Pre-European - Present vegetation

Naracoorte Coastal Plain (IBRA)

Cleared

Remnant

Limited value because gross changei.e. 1788-present

Present land use – 1992-2009 – snap shots

Tracking changes in land use

Source: ABARES 2010

Very limited value because change is also gross

• Mainly intensification of agricultural production• Some conversion to conservation and minimal use

Why was VAST developed?

• 2001 recognised need to improve discrimination used in NVIS mapping – either remnant or cleared (NLWRA & ESCAVI)

• 2005 recognised need to develop an indicator for reporting landscape condition of vegetation types (NLWRA & ESCAVI)

• Land use change mapping is ‘too blunt an instrument’ to assess the range of impacts on a plant community (NLWRA)

• Opportunity to develop and test a framework based on relative impacts of land management on vegetation (NLWRA)

Vegetation Assets States and Transitions (VAST) framework

VIVIVIIIIII0

Native vegetationcover

Non-native vegetationcover

Increasing vegetation modification from unmodified state

Transitions = trend

Vegetation thresholds

Reference for each veg type (NVIS)

VAST - A framework for compiling & reporting vegetation condition

Condition states

Residual or unmodified

Naturally bare

Modified Transformed Replaced -Adventive

Replaced - managed

Replaced - removed

Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90

Diagnostic attributes of VAST states:• Vegetation structure• Species composition• Regenerative capacity

NVIS

Vegetation condition – a snapshot

Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90

NB: Input dataset biophysical naturalness reclassified using VAST framework

Change using VAST

and NVIS MVG

Change is based on a gradient of modification

VAST and Landscape Alteration Levels

Variegated

60-90% retained

Fragmented

10-60% retained

Relictual

<10% retained

Intact

>90%

Native

Unmodified

Modified and retained

Highly modified

Destroyed

VAST I ResidualVAST 0 Naturally Bare

VAST II Modified

VAST III Transformed

VAST IV Replaced – Adventive, VAST V Replaced – Managed VAST VI Removed

Thackway & Lesslie (2008) Environmental Management, 42, 572-90

McIntyre & Hobbs (1999) Cons. Biology 13, 1282-92

Landscape alteration levels – a snapshot

LALs derived using a 2.5 kmInput VAST national 1 km

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Intact Variegated Fragmented RelictualLandscape Alteration Level

Ave

rag

e P

rop

ort

ion

(%

) o

f V

AS

T C

on

dit

ion

Sta

te

Residual*

Modified

Transformed

Managed

Removed

Mutendeudzi and ThackwayBRS 2010

Why VAST-2 was developed?

• To implement the ‘T’ (Transition) of the VAST framework– i.e. track changes in vegetation condition over time

• To propose a standardised national system for compiling data on cause & effect of management on native plant communities

• To propose a simple reporting system - show graphical changes in vegetation condition over time

Primary purpose of VAST-2 – monitoring and reporting

Site-based survey plots e.g. state level plant communities database

Project sitese.g. regional body

Network of paired sites e.g. NSW MERI

Permanent network of research sitese.g. NSW forest ecology

PROCESS MONITORING

RESOURCE CONDITION

MONITORING

PERFORMANCE MONITORING

FUNDAMENTAL DATA‘Wide & shallow’ e.g. 30,000 sites

e.g. 3,000 sites

e.g. 300 sites

‘Narrow & deep’e.g. 30 long term monitoring sites

VAST-2 methodology

Compile historical records at sites for selected plant communities

• Land use• Land management practices• Natural events e.g. droughts, fires, floods, cyclones, average

rainfall 1900-2012 etc• Observed interactions e.g. rabbits, sheep and drought• Observations and quantitative measures of effects

– Include written, oral, artistic, photographic and remote sensing

General process for tracking changes in vegetation condition over time (VAST-2)

Step 1aUse a checklist of 22 indicators to compile

changes in LU & LMP and plant community responses over time

Transformation site

Step 1cSynthesise and evaluate transformation of plant community using 22 indicators

Step 1bEvaluate the influence of climate, soil and

landform on the historical record

Step 3aLiterature review to determine the

baseline conditions for 22 indicators

Step 3cCompile indicator data for 22 indicators for reference site

Step 3bEvaluate the influence of climate, soil and landform for the reference site

Step 2Derive the responses of all

22 indicators

Step 4Derive the reference

states for 22 indicators

Reference state/sites

Step 5Score all 22 indicators for ‘transformation site’ relative to the

‘reference site’. 0 = major change; 1 = no change

Step 6Derive weighted indices for the three components for the ‘transformation

site’ i.e. regenerative capacity (58%), vegetation structure (27%) and species composition (18%) by adding predefined indicators

Step 7Add the indices for the three components to generate total transformation

index for the ‘transformation site’ for each year of the historical record . Validate using Expert Knowledge

Condition components

(3)

Attribute groups

(10)

Description of loss or gain relative to pre settlement indicator reference state (22)

Regenerative

capacity

Fire regime Change in the area /size of fire foot prints

Change in the number of fire starts

Soil hydrology Change in the soil surface water availability

Change in the ground water availability

Soil physical state

Change in the depth of the A horizon

Change in soil structure.

Soil nutrient state

Nutrient stress – rundown (deficiency) relative to soil fertility

Nutrient stress – excess (toxicity) relative to soil fertility

Soil biological state

Change in the recyclers responsible for maintaining soil porosity and nutrient recycling

Change in surface organic matter, soil crusts

Reproductive potential

Change in the reproductive potential of overstorey structuring species

Change in the reproductive potential of understorey structuring species

Vegetation structure

Overstorey structure

Change in the overstorey top height (mean) of the plant community

Change in the overstorey foliage projective cover (mean) of the plant community

Change in the overstorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the stand

Understorey structure

Change in the understorey top height (mean) of the plant community

Change in the understorey ground cover (mean) of the plant community

Change in the understorey structural diversity (i.e. a diversity of age classes) of the plant

Species Compositi

on

Overstorey composition

Change in the densities of overstorey species functional groups

Change in the relative number of overstorey species (richness) of the plant community

Understorey composition

Change in the densities of understorey species functional groups

Change in the relative number of understorey species (richness) of the plant community

1

3

10

22

Dia

gnos

ticatt

ribut

es

VegetationTransformation

score

Attrib

ute

grou

ps

VegetationStructure

(27%)

Overstorey

(3)

Understorey

(3)

SpeciesComposition

(18%)

(2)

UnderstoreyOverstorey

(2)

RegenerativeCapacity

(55%)

Fire

(2)

Reprodpotent

(2)

Soil

Hydrology

(2)

Biology

(2)

Nutrients

(2)

Structure

(2) Indicators

VAST-2 – benchmark scoring of the effects of use and management of native veg (indicators) over time

Certainty level standards used to compile historic record

Certainty level standards

Spatial precision(Scale)

Temporal precision(Year of observation)

Attribute accuracy(Land use, land

management practices, effects on condition)

HIGH "Definite”

Reliable direct quantitative data.

Code: 1

Reliable direct quantitative data.

Code: 4

Reliable direct quantitative data.

Code: 7

MEDIUM "Probable

"

Direct (with qualifications) or strong

indirect data.

Code: 2

Direct (with qualifications) or strong

indirect data.

Code: 5

Direct (with qualifications) or strong

indirect data.

Code: 8

LOW "Possible"

Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory

observations. More data needed.

Code: 3

Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory

observations. More data needed.

Code: 6

Limited qualitative and possibly contradictory

observations. More data needed.

Code: 9

Reliability levels of attribute information

Quadrat or pixel

Land unit

Land system

Sub-bioregion

Bioregion

Certainty levels

Coarse

Fine

Low

Low

Medium

Medium

High

Sources of information

Granularity of information

Case studies VAST-2

Qld, WT Bioregion, Wooroonooran Nature Refuge Reference pre-European: Complex Mesophyll Vine Forest

Clearing & conversion to

pasture

Start of grazing pasture

End grazing

pastures

Weed removal - Lantana

Logging Weeds & rainforest invading

VAST classes

31 ha conversion of lantana thickets to rainforest

Indigenous people manage the area

NSW, NNC Bioregion, Big Scrub, Rocky Creek DamReference pre-European: Complex notophyll vine forest

Clearing and conversion to pasture

Start of grazing exotic pasture

End grazing pastures

Removal of weeds Lantana - Privet

Commenced monitoring of regeneration

VAST classes

Indigenous people manage the area

NSW, NNC Bioregion, Big Scrub, Tintenbar Reference pre-European: Complex notophyll vine forest

Unmodified and intact rainforest

Clearing and conversion

Start of grazing exotic pasture

End of grazing pastures

Rainforest seedlings established under dense Camphor forest

Start of ploughing & cropping

VAST classes

Indigenous people manage the area

Invasion of weeds including Camphor laurel

ACT, SEH Bioregion, Blundells Flat, ex-coupe 424, Reference pre-European: Brown Barrel open forest

Site left to rehabilitate

Area burnt by severe wildfire killed all pines. Dead pines, pushed, heaped and burnt

1st rotation Pinus radiata planted

Coupe ripped and mounded. 2nd rotation P. radiata planted

Water catchment area declared for Canberra

VAST classes

Indigenous people manage the area

NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 3a, 7a, 7b, 7cReference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest

Commenced managing area for recreation. Weed control. Arboretum abandoned

Cleared & sown to improved pasture for grazing & orchard

Commenced grazing native pastures

Indigenous people manage the area

Area gazetted as State Forest, commenced planting arboretum

Area logged for building houses and fences

Commenced managing area as a future production forest. Weed control

Explorers traverse the area and site selected

Ceased grazing. Area purchased as a future working forest

Commenced managing area primarily for recreation

Ceased grazing. Purchased & declared as a State forest

Site fenced. Commenced continuous stocking with cattle

Commenced grazing cattle

Indigenous people manage the area

Cleared and commenced regrowing forest as a future forest production

Tree cover thinned for cattle grazing

Initiated 1st hazard reduction burn

Trees logged for housing, fences & fire wood

NSW, SB Bioregion, Cumberland SF, ex-comp 8b, 9a, 9b Reference pre-European: Sydney Blue Gum High Forest

Impact and adoption of this research

• Examples of invited case studies (in press):– 2013 State of the Forests Report (DAFF) and – National Accounts (BOM)

• Examples of invited case studies (in prep):• Great Western Woodlands (WA DEC)• Recreation and production forestry (Forests NSW)• Mine site restoration (ALCOA Bauxite mine WA)• Brigalow recovery plan (UQ BBS bioregion)

VAST-2 Lessons

Useful tool for:• engaging ecologists, academics, land managers, environmental historians,

educators because it builds on VAST, which is widely accepted and used • synthesizing information and ‘telling the story’ of vegetation

transformation since settlement • reporting ‘telling the story’ progress toward vegetation condition targets

Limited value as a tool for:• assessing multiple benefits in planning future landscapes e.g. carbon

sequestration and biodiversity at least cost• assessing impacts of climate change on managed plant communities

Next steps

• Publish a journal paper (in prep)• Investigate development of an ‘app’ to enable citizen

scientists to more easily compile the historical record:– Land use and management practices– Observed effects of use and management

• Promote key elements of the VAST-2 system in NRM citizen science e.g. national Land Observation Partnership Program

• Investigate potential for modelling 22 indicators at landscape scale over time

Potential to use VAST-2 system to predict likely effects of changing land management at paired sites

Change due to land management

Change due to other causes including natural processes

VAST

-2 tr

ansf

orm

ation

inde

x

100

80

60

40

20

0

time n time n +

Production forestry continues unchanged

Change from production forestry to conservation

More information

• VAST-2 sites plotted using Google earth http://aceas.org.au/portal/ • Digital Object Identifier (DOI) for VAST-2 sites

http://portal.tern.org.au/search#!/q=(vegetation%20transformation)/p=1/tab=collection/num=10

• VAST-2 Handbook and brochure http://www.vasttransformations.com/

Acknowledgements

• Ongoing research support of the University of Queensland, Department of Geography Planning and Environmental Management

• TERN ACEAS funded my sabbatical at the University of Queensland, Brisbane in 2010-11

• CSIRO Ecosystems Sciences for hosting me as a visiting research scientist, Canberra in 2010-11

• Many public and private land managers, land management agencies, consultants and researchers have provided data and information