Historical Geography of Post-Soviet Era. Choices in late 1980s Democracy, then reform –Open up society to reform it –U.S. thought “totalitarian” system.

Historical GeographyHistorical Geographyof Post-Soviet Eraof Post-Soviet Era

Choices in late 1980s

Democracy, then reform– Open up society to reform it

– U.S. thought “totalitarian”

system not reformable

Reform, then democracy –Shock the economy, then (maybe) open up –Models of Chile, China

Mikhail Gorbachev, 1985-91• Democracy, then reform

• Socialism with a human face

• Openness

• Restructuring

Glasnost (Openness)

• End to secrecy– After Chernobyl 1986

• Freedom to

assemble, speak, etc.

• Open discussion of problems

Glasnost: Unanticipated effects• Unleashed nationalisms

• Decentralization spreads

conflict to local scale

• No one calls shots;

little democratic experience

Perestroika (Restructuring)

Political: Reduce Party control

Economic: Privatize non-industrialeconomy

Place name changes:De-Sovietization

Leningrad

Gorky

Frunze

St. Petersburg

Nizhny Novgorod

Bishkek

Place name changes:Indigenization

Byelorussia

Yakutia

Kishinev

Belarus

Sakha

Chisinau,

Place name changes:Transliteration

Gomel

Tadzhikistan

Nakhichevan

Kirghizstan

Homyel

Tajikistan

Naxçivan

Kyrgyzstan

Perestroika: Unanticipated effects• Reluctance to give up security

• Mistrust competition, inequality

• Economic output lower, food shortages/lines

Gorbachev Era • Reversed “Brezhnev

Doctrine” in E. Europe

• Some allies more

hard-line than USSR

• Hard-liners tested him– Lithuania, Georgia,

Azerbaijan massacres

Afghanistan war, 1979-89• Underestimated Muslim mujahadin rebels

• Bogged down like Vietnam

• Stinger missiles shot down helicopters

Afghanistan war, 1979-89• Withdrew 1989

• Pro-Soviet regime ousted 1992

• Bitter Afghantsy (veterans)

Poland & Hungary• Western-oriented

• Soured on socialism

after repression– Hungary 1956– Poland 1970 & 1981

• Regimes liberalized

Better-off first to revolt

Poland, Hungary in Warsaw Pact

Baltic States in USSR

Slovenia, Croatia in Yugoslavia

Czech Rep. in Czechoslovakia

Better-off first to revolt

Socialist state prevented full development

Resented supporting poorer areas

“Pull” of European Union integration

Western TV signals

• Finnish TV in Estonia

• W. German TV in GDR,

Czech., Poland

• Austrian TV in Hungary

TV stationsas battlegrounds

Lithuania massacre 1990 U.S. bombs Serbia 1999

Romanian Revolution 1989

Ostankino tower clashes,Moscow, 1991, 1993

Poland 1989 • Solidarity strikes, peasant party force election

• 1st non-Communist prime minister appointed; Lech Walesa later pres.

Hungary 1989• Party drops power monopoly

• Declares republic, opens discussion of 1956

• Opens western border

East Germany(GDR) 1989

• “Tourists” cross Hungarian border to Austria (brain drain)

• Huge youth rallies spread from Leipzig

• Fear of Stasi secret police lost

• Gorbachev prevents crackdown

Berlin Wall 1989• Minister on TV ends travel restrictions

• Berlin Wall falls overnight after 28 years

• GDR dissolves 1990, becomes FRG poor region

Post-Soviet paths, 1989

• “Reformed” Communist parties

• Pro-West consumer capitalism

• “Third Way”: democratic socialism / Greens

• Right-wing ethnic nationalism

Czechoslovakia 1989• Student protests

repressed

• “Velvet Revolution” returns leaders from 1968 Prague Spring

• Dissident writer

Vaclav Havel president

Czechoslovakiaends 1993

• Czech Rep. More developed than Slovakia

• Czechs want quick NATO, EU entry

• “Velvet Divorce” of leaders, not people

Bulgaria 1989 • Russians popular in Slav Orthodox country

• Communists win 1990 election; lose 1991

• Economic reforms difficult

Romanian Revolution 1989

• Dictator Ceaucescu

wooed West

• Autocratic “personality

cult,” secret police

• Military revolt executed

him, poverty remained

Baltics1990

• Lithuania declares full independence

• Soviet crackdown

• Latvia, Estonia declare sovereignty (own laws supreme)

Boris Yeltsin,1991-99

• Party official from Urals; resigned 1990

• Modernizer; Russian Federation Pres. 1991

• Russia needs own identity apart from USSR,

declares republic laws supreme

August 1991 Coup • Day before Union of Sovereign States declared

• Gorbachev under arrest by KGB; VP in power

• Moscow KGB declined to arrest Yeltsin (on tank)

• Gorbachev rescued, coup collapses

Coup Aftermath • Yeltsin undercut Gorbachev as main leader

• Baltics independence recognized in Sept.

• Other republics start to declare as “sovereign”

December 1991 Endgame

• Russia, Ukraine, Belarus independent

• Declare “Commonwealth of Independent States”

• 8 independent republics join CIS (Georgia later)

• Gorbachev resigns, Soviet flag lowered

Russia successorRussia successorstate to USSRstate to USSR

Aftermath• Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakstan disarm nukes

• Economic, military ties disrupted between republics

• Rise of “mafia” economy, crime

“Shock therapy” • Close command industries

•Reduce or end subsidies

• Privatize industrial economy

•High unemployment,

inflation, inequality

• Winning regionsHub cities

Gateway

Spatial economy • Losing regionsOlder military-industrial

Agricultural, Resources

Ethnic minority

Post-Communists, 1990s

• Elected in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania!

• Slowing down shock therapy?

• Seen as capitalist/modern,

not nationalist, social conservative

Opposition to Yeltsin

• Candidates: Rutskoi, Lebed, Zhirinovsky, Zyuganov

•Communists & nationalists lament loss of Empire

•Slavophile populists mistrust West; often anti-Semitic

•Yeltsin tanks fire on Parliament, 1993

Yeltsin’s Demise • Financial crash

• Health problems

• Drunk as a skunk

• Corruption extended to family

• Ethnic minority autonomy (soft on Chechens?)

Vladimir Putin, 2000-? • Underestimated as Yeltsin puppet

• Ex-KGB in Germany; knows West well

• Yet also placates “Eurasians,” Soviet memories

Chechnya

• Won vs. Russia in 1990, 1994-96

• Declared independence

• Key Caspian oil pipeline

Russians flatten Grozny, capital of Chechnya, 2000

Putin’s ruthless brutality won admirers

Authoritarianism returning

• Media controls

• Centralization in Moscow

• Ethnic autonomy lessened

• Economic heavy hand