Historical emissions a new 1860-2000 inventory of emissions of gases and particles Claire GRANIER Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL, Paris CIRES/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Aude MIEVILLE, Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL, Paris Cathy LIOUSSE and Bruno GUILLAUME, Laboratoire d’Aerologie, Toulouse, France
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Historical emissions a new 1860-2000 inventory of emissions of gases and particles Claire GRANIER Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL, Paris CIRES/NOAA Earth System.
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Historical emissions
a new 1860-2000 inventory of emissions of gases and particles
Claire GRANIERService d’Aéronomie/IPSL, Paris
CIRES/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Aude MIEVILLE, Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL, Paris
Cathy LIOUSSE and Bruno GUILLAUME, Laboratoire d’Aerologie, Toulouse, France
Emissions of gases and aerosols from:
technological emissions
biomass burning emissions
What is missing/not well taken into accountWhat could be done over the next few months
Technological emissions:
General equation used to generate emissions:
Emission = Σ Ai EFi P1i P2i
Ai = Activity rate for a source
(ex: kg of coal burned in a power plant…) EFi = Emission factor : amount of emission per unit activity
(ex: kg of sulfur emitted per kg burned P1i, P2i, … = parameters applied to the specified source types and species
(ex: sulphur content of the fuel, efficiency, …)
Emissions calculated for different categories of emissions
Anthropogenic sources included : fossil fuel and biofuel combustion sources
not included : ships, waste burning, solvent production and animals (could be taken from the RETRO inventory)
Bottom-up method used to derive emission inventories based on Junker and Liousse, ACPD, 6, 4897, 2006
Emissions provided country by country Spatialization using GISS population map modified for large political changes Different algorithms for 1860-1949, 1950-2003 and 2003-2030
1950-2003 1860-1949Crude oil separated
intoDiesel and Gasoline extrapolation from UN data
for each country group and activities)
Country classification
<1940 : only 2 classesSee Table of EF values
NB : Data for Biofuel consumption for the 1860-1969 period :extrapolation from UN data and population trends for each country group and each
activities
Different algorithms for 1860-1949, 1950-2003
Fuels over three sectors : extrapolation from UN data for each country group
Burnt area per vegetation type CO2 emissions per vegetation type
x BD x BE x EF
Methodology – biomass burning emissions 2000
Other years:
scaling of ATSR fire counts, using 2000 as a basis
2. 1900-1996 biomass burning emissions: Use of historical data
Use of data compiled by Mouillot and Field:Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1x1 degree fire history reconstruction for the 20th century, Global Change Biology (2005) 11, 398–420.
Calculate CO2 emissions for the 1990-2000 decade as the product : Emissions(CO2) = BA x BD x BE x EF(CO2)
BA = Burnt Area (from Mouillot et al. paper)BD = Biomass Density BE = Burning Efficiency (Use GLC 2000 map)EF(CO2) = Emission Factor for CO2 (from Andreae and Merlet, 2001)
Scale 1990-2000 CO2 emissions from forest/savanna burning so that they equal the 1997-2003 previously calculated
Use the same scaling for all other decades considering forest and savanna burning separately
Burned areas (in m^2)for the 1900-1910 and 1990-2000 decades
1900-1910
1990-2000
CO2 emissions for the 1900-1910 and 1990-2000 decades (in 1.e13 molec/cm2/s)
1900-1910
1990-2000
Not taken into account: Change in vegetation distribution over the 20th century. Any existing data?
Summary: Difference in Anthrop+biomass burning emissions 2000-1900
1st version of the inventory
Simulations using these emissions will start this week1st set of simulations: steady-state, 1900 and 2000
Improvements/corrections planned, based on simulations results
First question we want to look at: are these new emissions compatible with the very low ozone concentrations measured at the beginning of the 20th century?
1st step: use MOZART-42nd step: use coupled model with dynamical vegetation/ changing land use
What could also be developed using the same method: Future projections at the global scale for 2010-2030
New projections by using the POLES model including both fossil fuel and biofuel emissions (Junker and Liousse, IGAC 2006).
Reference scenario : Reflect the state of the world with what is actually (2000) embodied as environmental policy objectives
CCC scenario : Introduction of carbon penalties as defined by Kyoto for2010 and a reduction of 37 Gt of CO2 in 2030.
First step : - EF for gases constant over time- BC and OCp :EFs for the Reference scenario : equal to today’sReduction of EF for the CCC scenario : Developed countries : based on removal efficiency forecast by the IIASA Rains modelSemi-Developed countries : EFs of developed countries of 2000Under-Developed countries : EFs of semi-developed countries of 2000
Also contributed to the development of the inventory:
Jean-Francois LAMARQUE, NCAR
Florent MOUILLOT, CEFE, Montpellier, France
Jean-Marie GREGOIRE, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy