1 Agenda of CBD-COP10 Pre-conference for strengthening scientific basis for conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity Hiroyuki Matsuda (Yokohama National University) Asia Pacific Biodiversity Observation Network (AP-BON) Workshop, United Nations University, Dec. 11, 2009 J-BON 1 st Meeting May 8, 2009 U. of Tokyo
Agenda of CBD-COP10 Pre-conference for strengthening scientific basis for conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. Hiroyuki Matsuda (Yokohama National University) Asia Pacific Biodiversity Observation Network (AP-BON) Workshop, United Nations University, Dec. 11, 2009. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
Agenda of CBD-COP10 Pre-conference for strengthening
scientific basis for conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity
Hiroyuki Matsuda(Yokohama National University)
Asia Pacific Biodiversity Observation Network (AP-BON) Workshop,
United Nations University, Dec. 11, 2009
J-BON 1st MeetingMay 8, 2009U. of Tokyo
2
Today’s my talk - overview
• Role of scientists– “strengthening scientific basis” does not mean
“strengthening the role of scientists”
• Check & seek SMART policy for CBD
• Indicators for Post 2010 Target of CBD
3
Questions about role of scientists
• Do you support Gov’t or NGOs?
• Do you like to commit to global issues or make a solution of local problems?
• Do you really consider your research field as the biggest environmental issue?
4
Two types of scientists
• Emphasize their own research field as the biggest issue in the world– Input importance of their research plan into
consensus of international meetings
• Give moderate comments even against fund-raising of their own research field– Don’t make agreement to get our own fund at
IPBES or CBD.– We are just advisors for CBD issues, and
other environmental issues.
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Four standpoints of scientists
• Say no societal comments to the public
• Say what supports government policies
• Say what supports NGOs
• Say what are believed by him/herself, even disagree with Gov’t or NGOs
Galileo’s InquisitionGalileo’s Inquisition
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Biodiversity science-policy interfaceby A. Larigauderie
Research(DIVERSITAS, ESSP)
Assessment(MA, IPBES, IPCC)
Policy(CBD, UNFCCC)Observations
(GEO BON)
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9. Set preliminary numerical goal
10. Choose monitoring measures
11. Select method of control
Flow diagram for ecological risk management
0. Concerns, issues
2.Delimit management scope, invite stakeholder
3.Organize local council and scientific committee
14. Initiate management
15. Continue management and monitoring
Scientific procedure
Consensus building
4.Characterize “undesired events”
5. Enumerate measures of effects
6. Analyze stress factors by modelling
7. Risk assessment for no-action case
Revision required
Reset goals when not agreed
Reset goals w
hen infeasible
8. Check necessity and purpose of management
13. Decide measures & goals 12. Check feasibility of goals
16. Review numerical goals and purposes
1. Screening
Finish program
scientistspublic
Rossberg et al. 2007 Lands Ecol Eng 1:221-
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Before consensus of aims
4. Characterize “undesired events”
5. Enumerate measures of effects
6. Analyze stress factors by modeling
7. Risk assessment for no-action case
9
Between consensus of aims and building action plan
9. Set a preliminary numerical goal
10. Choose monitoring measures
11. Select method of control
12. Check feasibility of goals
10
After action plan is executed…
16. Review numerical goals and purposes
11
This is
• Tailor-made conservation planning– Process of consensus building is important– Global unique numerical standard is difficult– Unlike human health standard
• Check & seek SMART policy for CBD– Specific, Measurable, Ambitious, Realistic and
Time-bound
• Indicators for Post 2010 Target of CBD
Scientific?
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New strategic plan: Elements for the 2020 Mission by (J. Shimura)
• Option: by 2020 the necessary urgent and concerted actions to address the threats facing biodiversity so as to stop biodiversity loss, and started to restore ecosystems, thus ensuring the continued provision of ecosystem services and avoiding dangerous or irreversible environmental change.
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New strategic plan: Elements for the 2020 Mission by (J. Shimura)
• Another option: by 2020 to halt biodiversity loss, and restore it to ecologically sound levels, and enhance the capacity of ecosystems to provide services, …
•Now we recognize the 2010 target (significant reduction in the speed of biodiversity loss) may not be achieved. “Halt by 2020” seems unrealistic.•However, it depends on definition and indicator of biodiversity.•Scientists can advise indicators and feasibility of these options.
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Another problem“Smart” depends on nations
• CBD has agreed…– Biodiversity conservation– Sustainable use of its component– Access for Benefit Sharing
• Ecosystem approach
Living in Harmony with Nature
Evaluation of ecosystem services
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Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity
– Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty)
– 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty)
MA 2005
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Past & Future Extinction in Japanese vascular plants (Fujita, Yahara, Matsuda et al. in prep)
55.3 species
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
20002020
20402060
20802100
Endemic species lossNon-endemic species lossN
umbe
r of
indi
geno
us f
lora
in J
apan
Year
Future553
Extinct7.9%
8.6 species
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
種数
ほぼ絶滅絶滅・野生絶滅CR(PE*)EX or EW
No
of e
xtin
ctio
n
Un kno
wn
Past
Year
6.3-times larger
Extinction rates(per decade)
*PE = Probably extinct (no report of extant grids)
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How many reserves should be requiredfor conservation?
GBO2Pauly D., Watson R. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B;2005;360:415-423
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Seek simplicity, but distrust it
--Alfred N Whitehead--Alfred N Whitehead-- Begon, Harper, Townsend “Ecology”-- Begon, Harper, Townsend “Ecology”
Seek simple indicators, but distrust them.Seek simple indicators, but distrust them.Experts (scientists) judgment is very importaExperts (scientists) judgment is very importa
nt, rather than indicators. However, we nent, rather than indicators. However, we need indicators!ed indicators!
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多様性損失指数Expected loss of biodiversity
• ELB = B (1/T)
=生物多様性貢献度 × 絶滅リスク上昇
Contribution of biodiversity
×increment of extinction risk
Overfishing of tunas T: ca 1 million to ca 500yrs (1/T) = 0.002Small habitat loss of VU sp. T: 100 yrs to 99yrs (1/T) = 0.001
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Biodiversity Asian Strategies by Eco-Risk COE
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Thank you for attention!
I like to try real time case studies with field ecologists!