HIghway Model for Istanbul

PRESENTATION

Istanbul Strait Road Tunnel Crossing

Development of a highway model for the Istanbul metropolitan area

2 European Transport Conference 2011Istanbul Strait Road Tunnel CrossingJC

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Outline

Project procurement Forecasting issues Forecasting approach Istanbul Traffic Model Project status and forward programme


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Istanbul strategic highway network


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Cross-Bosporus traffic growth

Current cross-Bosporus traffic = 400,000 AADT Bosporus Bridge at capacity late 1990’s. FSM Bridge approaching capacity.

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Fatih Sultan Mehmet

Bogazici


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The Project


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The Project

14.6-km. motorway, including 5.4-km. twin-deck tunnel under the Bosporus in central Istanbul. Approach motorways widened to 4 lanes/direction. Bored tunnel restricted to cars and minibuses. Revenue guarantee = 25m. vehicles p.a.. Capital cost – c. $1.1bn..


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Project Procurement

The first Turkish transportation PPP project. BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) tender:

– Issued by Turkish government - December 2006. – Bids submission - June 2008– Awarded - January 2009– Contract signed - February 2011.

Awarded to ATAS consortium on the basis of shortest concession period required. Concession period - 30 years, 6 months, 9 days, including 4 years, 7

months construction period.


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Traffic and revenue forecasting issues

Toll sensitivity Maximum toll permitted = $4.72

Land use development and economic growth– Population = c.12m., growing at 3% p.a.– Incomes 60% above national average, – Projected GDP growth = c.4%+ p.a.

Induced/suppressed demand– Suppressed demand from high congestion levels, especially on

Bosporus crossings Highway developments

– North Marmara motorway / 3rd Bosporus Bridge– Post-privatisation tolling on bridges

Modal competition– Marmaray rail link


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Forecasting approach

Existing modeling resources:– No available traffic model– ATC data and some O-D data– Limited journey time data.

Data collection programme Highway traffic model Mode choice model for public transport diversion


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Data collection

Traffic count survey Bosporus and FSM bridges 40+ other count locations across Istanbul.

Origin-Destination survey All cross-Bosporus flows covered by 18 sites 26,000 interviews.

Journey time survey 3 cross-Bosporus routes surveyed 74 survey runs.


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Istanbul Traffic Model

Zone system 424 zones Market segmentation

– 4 Car segments (commuter, education, business, other)– Minibus– Goods vehicles

Time periods Weekday A.M. peak & inter-peak hour Base year 2009 Forecast horizons 2015 and 2023 Modeling software CUBE Network 66,000 links, based upon satnav data.


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Istanbul Traffic Model - Example


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Project status

Forecasts are confidential Financial Close: Expected December 2011 Funding: Mix of commercial banks and multi-lateral institutions


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Turkish PPP programme

Gebze-Izmir motorway, inc. Izmit Bay Bridge– 420-km. BOT concession– Awarded to bidder offering the shortest concession period– Preferred Bidder: Otoyol S.A.– Capital cost: c.$11bn.– Financial Close: Expected before end-2012.

North Marmara Highway, inc. 3rd Bosporus Bridge– 361-km. BOT concession– Tender expected early 2012– Capital cost: c.$6bn.


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THANK YOU

HIghway Model for Istanbul

Documents

central istanbul

bored tunnel

istanbul metropolitan

highway model

twindeck tunnel

crossbosporus flows

crossbosporus routes

aadt bosporus bridge