Higher Education and the Future of Wisconsin Presented to the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System Milwaukee, Wisconsin June 7, 2007 National Center for Higher Education National Center for Higher Education Management Systems Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251
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Higher Education and the Future of Wisconsin
Presented to the
Board of Regents of the
University of Wisconsin SystemMilwaukee, Wisconsin
June 7, 2007
National Center for Higher Education Management SystemsNational Center for Higher Education Management Systems3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251
2
The Management Cycle
Strategic Management —The allocation of resources to programmed activities calculated to achieve a set of goals.
Assessment
Planning
Resource Allocation
3
The Management Cycle in a Public Institution
State
Planning
Institution
State
Institution
Resource Allocation
State
Assessment
Institution
4
Strategic Planning at the State/System Level
Creating a “Public Agenda”—
Identifying Those Key Issues Facing
the State Which the System of
Higher Education Can Help Address
Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength
5
AL
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE IL
IN
IA
KY
LA
MDMA
MS
NJ
NY
NDOK
OR
SC
SD
UT
VA
WAMN
NH
TN TX
WV
WI
WY
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Personal Income Per Capita, 2000
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
MT
HI
AK
GA
KS
ME NE
NV
NC
OH PAVT
ID
MI
MO
NM
RIFL US
Low Income, High Educational AttainmentLow Income, Low Educational Attainment
High Income, High Educational AttainmentHigh Income, Low Educational Attainment
State New Economy Index (2002)
Top Tier
Middle Tier
Low Tier
Relationship Between Educational Attainment and High Tech Employment
Source: State New Economy Index, U.S. Census Bureau6
AK
AZ
AR
DE
GA
HI
IL
IN
IA KS
LA
ME
MD
MA
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA RI
SC
SD
VT
VA
WA
US
AL
CA
CO
CT
FL
ID
KY
MI
MN
MS
MO
NH
NM
TN
TX
UT
WV
WI
WY
0
3
6
9
12
15 20 25 30 35 40
High Tech Employment, High Educational AttainmentHigh Tech Employment, Low Educational Attainment
Percent of Civilian Population Participating in the Workforce, 2004
71.8
66.0
54.7
74.6
0
25
50
75
Minneso
taN
ebra
skaS
outh D
akota
Co
loradoN
orth D
akotaW
isconsin
Kan
sasW
yoming
Alaska
Ne
w H
ampshire
Utah
Verm
ontIow
aM
arylandM
issouriIdahoW
ashington
Massachusetts
Georgia
Virg
iniaT
exasIndian
aN
evada
Ohio
Monta
naR
hode Island
Co
nnecticutD
elaw
areIllinoisO
regon
Maine
Michigan
Un
ited States
No
rth Carolina
Ne
w Jerse
yC
alifornia
Arizo
naS
outh C
arolinaH
aw
aiiP
ennsylvania
Oklahom
aN
ew
Mexico
Tenn
esseeN
ew
York
Alabam
aA
rkansasF
loridaK
entucky
Mississippi
Louisiana
West V
irginia
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
28
Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not in the Workforce
By Education Attainment, 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)
U.S. Wisconsin
Less than High School 43.2 31.3
High School 27.0 20.5
Some College 20.7 17.2
Associate Degree 17.3 12.6
Bachelor’s Degree 15.4 14.2
Graduate/Prof. Degree 12.4 12.8
29
Percent of Civilian Population Participating in the
Workforce, 2004
Wisconsin = 70.8%Source: State of Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development
75% to 80%70% to 75%65% to 70%60% to 65%53% to 60%
MarquetteGreen Lake
Dodge
JuneauFond du Lac
Calumet
Ozaukee
Sheboygan
AdamsMonroe Winnebago
LafayetteRock
Walworth
Jefferson
Kenosha
RacineMilwaukee
Waushara
OutagamieManitowoc
Buffalo
TrempealeauPepin
Waukesha
Washington
BurnettWashburn
Florence
Forest
Menominee
Shawano
Oconto
Door
Kewaunee
La Crosse
Vernon
Portage
Polk
Bayfield
Ashland
MarinetteBarron
Brown
Chippewa
Clark
Columbia
CrawfordDane
Douglas
Dunn
Eau Claire
Grant
Green
Iowa
Iron
Jackson
LangladeLincoln
Marathon
Oneida
Pierce
Price
Richland
Rusk
Sauk
Sawyer
St. Croix
Taylor
Vilas
WaupacaWood
30
Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—
Wisconsin, 2005
29th
26th
9th
13th
7th
01020304050
Age 25-64 withGraduate/Prof. Degree
Age 25-64 withBachelor's or Higher
Age 25-64 withAssociate Degree
Age 25-64 withHigh School Diploma
Age 18-24 withHigh School Diploma 84.4%
8.7%
91.8%
10.1%
27.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS)
31
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—
Wisconsin, the U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004
Source: Education at a Glance 2005, OECD
53.3
51.6 49.1
42.3
40.7
40.4
39.2
39.0
41.4
47.0 45.1
33.5
35.7 32.3 28.9
34.1
39.4
38.8
41.4
32.7
16.4
32.9
25.2 21.5
29.4
40.7
35.2
34.5
19.2
9.7
27.3
20.0 15.7
23.2
36.2
35.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway U.S. Wisconsin
Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64
32
Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree
or Higher, 2005
37
.4
25
.0
37
.4
48
.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
Massa
chuse
ttsC
onne
cticutC
olorad
oN
ew Jerse
yM
inneso
taN
ew H
amp
shire
Verm
on
tM
arylan
dN
ew Y
orkV
irgin
iaN
orth Da
kota
Wa
shing
ton
Rho
de Isla
ndH
awa
iiN
ebra
skaIllin
oisC
alifornia
Uta
hK
ansa
sS
outh
Dakota
Iow
aU
nited Sta
tesW
isconsin
Ore
gon
Maine
Delaw
areP
ennsylva
niaF
lorida
Mon
tana
Ala
skaN
orth Ca
rolin
aM
ichigan
Geo
rgia
Arizon
aW
yom
ing
Idah
oO
hioN
ew M
exico
Sou
th C
arolina
Misso
uriT
exasO
klahom
aIn
diana
Ala
bam
aT
enne
sseeM
ississippi
Nevada
Ken
tucky
Lou
isianaA
rkansa
sW
est V
irginia
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
33
Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree
or Higher, 2005
27
.3
29
.2
18
.7
40
.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Massachusetts
Co
nnecticutN
ew
Jersey
Co
loradoM
arylandV
irginia
Verm
ontN
ew
Ham
pshireN
ew
York
Minneso
taR
hode Island
IllinoisW
ashington
Ca
liforniaK
ansas
Ha
waii
Ne
braska
De
laware
No
rth Dakota
Un
ited States
Oreg
onG
eorgiaU
tahP
ennsylvania
Alaska
Monta
naW
isconsin
Sou
th Dako
taM
aineN
orth C
arolinaM
ichiganF
loridaIow
aA
rizona
Missouri
Texas
Ne
w M
exicoO
hioW
yoming
IdahoS
outh C
arolinaO
klahoma
Tenn
esseeA
labama
Indiana
Louisiana
Ne
vadaK
entucky
Arkansas
Mississippi
West V
irginia
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS
34
Percent of Population Age 25-64 with at Least a Bachelor’s
Degree, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
23.3% to 43.5%19.2% to 23.3%16.7% to 19.2%14.2% to 16.7%10.1% to 14.2%
MarquetteGreen Lake
Dodge
JuneauFond du Lac
Calumet
Ozaukee
Sheboygan
AdamsMonroe Winnebago
LafayetteRock
Walworth
Jefferson
Kenosha
RacineMilwaukee
Waushara
OutagamieManitowoc
Buffalo
TrempealeauPepin
Waukesha
Washington
BurnettWashburn
Florence
Forest
Menominee
Shawano
Oconto
Door
Kewaunee
La Crosse
Vernon
Portage
Polk
Bayfield
Ashland
MarinetteBarron
Brown
Chippewa
Clark
Columbia
CrawfordDane
Douglas
Dunn
Eau Claire
Grant
Green
Iowa
Iron
Jackson
LangladeLincoln
Marathon
Oneida
Pierce
Price
Richland
Rusk
Sauk
Sawyer
St. Croix
Taylor
Vilas
WaupacaWood
Dane = 43.5
Wisconsin = 24.9
Menominee = 10.1
35
Educational Attainment of Young Workforce (Age 25-34) in
Wisconsin—Indexed to Most Educated Country, 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD
Females
Males
White
Females
Males
African-American
Females
Males
Hispanic/Latino
Females
Males
Native American/AK Native
Females
Males
Asian/Pacific Islander
Bachelor's Degree or Higher
All College Degrees (Associate or Higher)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Norway
U.S. Index = 81%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Canada
U.S. Index = 72%
36
Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of
U.S. Average—Wisconsin, 1960-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000)
97.3
99.8
92.7
99.2
95.6
80
90
100
110
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
U.S. Average
37
Wisconsin Median Earnings Age 25-64 by Degree Level,
2005
28,333
35,672
40,768
45,965
61,151
77,458
45,864
21,199
29,557
35,162
38,729
49,635
61,151
36,691
25,480
30,576
34,652
38,729
45,864
57,075
36,691
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
Less thanHigh School
High School Some College,No Degree
AssociateDegree
Bachelor'sDegree
Graduate/Prof.Degree
All Levels
Top State
United States
Wisconsin
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File
38
Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma
and an Associate Degree—Population Age 18-64, 2005
7,134
10,192
3,058
14,269
$0
$3,000
$6,000
$9,000
$12,000
$15,000
Alaska
Ca
liforniaN
ew
Jersey
Maryland
Texas
Arizo
naM
ichiganV
irginia
IdahoD
elaw
areG
eorgiaM
issouriU
nited S
tatesN
ew
Mexico
Sou
th Carolina
Co
nnecticutA
labama
Co
loradoF
loridaK
entucky
Oreg
onT
ennessee
Washingto
nIllinoisH
aw
aiiM
assachusettsN
evada
Wyom
ingLouisian
aU
tahM
aineIndian
aM
innesota
No
rth Carolina
Ohio
Oklahom
aP
ennsylvania
Verm
ontW
isconsin
Ne
w H
ampshire
Rh
ode IslandN
ew
York
Arkansas
Kan
sasM
ississippiN
orth D
akotaS
outh D
akota
West V
irginiaN
ebra
skaIow
aM
ontana
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File
39
Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma
and a Bachelor’s Degree—Population Age 18-64, 2005
15
,28
8
20
,38
4
10
,19
2
25
,48
0
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Ca
liforniaA
laskaV
irginia
Co
nnecticutN
ew
Jersey
Georgia
Maryland
Michigan
Texas
Washingto
nN
ew
York
Arizo
naU
nited S
tatesIllinoisA
labama
Arkansas
Co
loradoM
assachusettsM
innesota
Oreg
onN
ew
Mexico
Ne
w H
ampshire
IdahoIndian
aM
issouriN
evada
Ohio
Pen
nsylvaniaR
hode Island
De
laware
Florida
Ha
waii
No
rth Carolina
Sou
th Carolina
Tenn
esseeU
tahK
ansas
Ken
tuckyN
ebra
skaO
klahoma
Wiscon
sinM
aineM
ississippiLouisian
aW
est Virginia
Verm
ontW
yoming
Iowa
Monta
naN
orth D
akotaS
outh D
akota
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File
40
The Education Pipeline
41
Key Transition Points in the Education Pipeline
■ Complete High School
■ Enter College
■ Finish College
■ Enter the Workplace
42
Student Pipeline, 2004
91.3
57.3
42.0
27.3
69.7
38.8
26.9
18.4
78.0
45.6
33.5
23.7
42.3
29.7 28.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
Graduate fromHigh School
Directly EnterCollege
Enroll inSecond Year
GraduateWithin 150% ofProgram Time
Age 25-44 withBachelor's Degree
Best Performing StateUnited StatesWisconsin
Source: NCES Common Core Data, IPEDS Residency and Migration Survey, IPEDS Enrollment Survey, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey
Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…
43
Percent of Racial/Ethnic Groups at Each Stage of the
Education Pipeline, 2004—Wisconsin
83
.0
88
.0
85
.9
84
.8
7.4 5
.1
4.4
5.0 3.7
4.7 3.0
2.7
2.8
2.31.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.8
2.5
2.9
3.0
2.6
2.3
85
.5
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
18-Year-Olds High School Graduates First-Time Freshman All Other Undergraduates Completers
White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic Native American Asian
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; WICHE High School Graduates; NCES College Participation and Completion
44
High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2004
78
.0
69
.7
50
.7
91
.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
JerseyU
tahN
orth Dakota
Iowa
Nebraska
Minnesota
Verm
ontS
outh Dakota
IdahoM
ontanaP
ennsylvaniaW
isconsinM
aineM
issouriK
ansasO
hioC
onnecticutN
ew H
ampshire
IllinoisA
rkansasW
yoming
Massachusetts
Oklahom
aM
arylandC
oloradoV
irginiaW
est Virginia
Oregon
Rhode Island
California
Washington
IndianaU
nited States
Michigan
LouisianaT
exasD
elaware
Haw
aiiK
entuckyA
rizonaN
orth Carolina
Tennessee
Alaska
New
York
New
Mexico
Alabam
aM
ississippiF
loridaG
eorgiaS
outh Carolina
Nevada
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (rev. 071106)
4545
46
Public High School Graduates, 2002-2003
Wisconsin = 67,057Source: University of Wisconsin System Administration
1,366 to 8,957715 to 1,366438 to 715226 to 43859 to 226
MarquetteGreen Lake
Dodge
JuneauFond du Lac
Calumet
Ozaukee
Sheboygan
AdamsMonroe Winnebago
LafayetteRock
Walworth
Jefferson
Kenosha
RacineMilwaukee
Waushara
OutagamieManitowoc
Buffalo
TrempealeauPepin
Waukesha
Washington
BurnettWashburn
Florence
Forest
Menominee
Shawano
Oconto
Door
Kewaunee
La Crosse
Vernon
Portage
Polk
Bayfield
Ashland
MarinetteBarron
Brown
Chippewa
Clark
Columbia
CrawfordDane
Douglas
Dunn
Eau Claire
Grant
Green
Iowa
Iron
Jackson
LangladeLincoln
Marathon
Oneida
Pierce
Price
Richland
Rusk
Sauk
Sawyer
St. Croix
Taylor
Vilas
WaupacaWood
47
Projections of High School Graduates to 2018
By Race/Ethnicity—Wisconsin
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
200
0-01
200
1-02
200
2-03
200
3-04
200
4-05
200
5-06
200
6-07
200
7-08
200
8-09
200
9-10
201
0-11
201
1-12
201
2-13
201
3-14
201
4-15
201
5-16
201
6-17
201
7-18
White (52,835 to 46,155) Hispanic (1,557 to 6,643)Black, Non-Hispanic (2,835 to 3,156) Asian/Pacific Islander (1,567 to 2,286)American Indian/Alaskan Native (547 to 637)
Source: WICHE Projections of High School Graduates
48
College-Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of
High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004
58.5 55.5
68.8
42.6
0
25
50
75
South D
akotaN
ew Y
orkN
orth Dakota
South C
arolinaM
innesotaN
orth Carolina
Georgia
Massachusetts
New
JerseyIndianaIow
aN
ew M
exicoK
ansasC
onnecticutA
labama
Mississippi
Nebraska
Pennsylvania
Wyom
ingM
ichiganM
arylandW
isconsinM
ontanaC
oloradoV
irginiaK
entuckyA
rkansasR
hode IslandU
nited States
New
Ham
pshireIllinoisN
evadaLouisianaD
elaware
Florida
West V
irginiaO
klahoma
Ohio
Missouri
Texas
Haw
aiiM
aineA
rizonaT
ennesseeIdahoO
regonA
laskaC
aliforniaV
ermont
Washington
Utah
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07)
49
Percent of First-Time Freshmen Who Attend College
Within Their Reported State of Residence, Fall 2004
83.3
84.1
42.4
93.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mississippi
Utah
Texas
Ca
liforniaLouisian
aN
orth C
arolinaM
ichiganO
klahoma
Florida
Alabam
aA
rizona
Sou
th Carolina
Ken
tuckyA
rkansasIow
aIndian
aG
eorgiaK
ansas
West V
irginiaO
hioP
ennsylvania
Missouri
Un
ited States
Tenn
esseeC
olorado
Ne
vadaW
isconsin
Ne
w Y
orkN
ebra
skaO
regon
Ne
w M
exicoV
irginia
Minneso
taIllinoisW
ashington
IdahoS
outh D
akota
Monta
naN
orth D
akotaM
assachusettsD
elaw
areW
yoming
Maryland
Ha
waii
Rh
ode IslandM
aineN
ew
Jersey
Co
nnecticutA
laskaN
ew
Ham
pshireV
ermont
Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Enrollments; ef2004c Final Release Data File
50
Out-of-State Institutions Attended by Wisconsin First-Time Degree/Certificate Seeking Undergraduate Students, Fall 2004
University of Minnesota-Twin Cities MN Public 4-Year 1,333Winona State University MN Public 4-Year 485University of Minnesota-Duluth MN Public 4-Year 243Northern Michigan University MI Public 4-Year 230Michigan Technological University MI Public 4-Year 184Century Community and Technical College MN Public 2-Year 156Saint Cloud State University MN Public 4-Year 148Minnesota State College-Southeast Technical-Winona MN Public 2-Year 143Minnesota State University-Mankato MN Public 4-Year 110Lake Superior College MN Public 2-Year 106University of St Thomas MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 95Martin Luther College MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 92Brown College MN Private For-Profit 4-Year 90University of Iowa IA Public 4-Year 84Luther College IA Private Non-Profit 4-Year 80Saint Olaf College MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 74Wyo Tech WY Private For-Profit 2-Year 74Arizona State University at the Tempe Campus AZ Public 4-Year 73Loyola University Chicago IL Private Non-Profit 4-Year 67Northwestern University IL Private Non-Profit 4-Year 64Purdue University-Main Campus IN Public 4-Year 64Iowa State University IA Public 4-Year 59Bethel University MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 59Saint Louis University-Main Campus MO Private Non-Profit 4-Year 56Dakota County Technical College MN Public 2-Year 54
No. of StudentsInstitution State Sector
(continued)
51
Out-of-State Institutions Attended by Wisconsin First-Time Degree/Certificate Seeking Undergraduate Students, Fall 2004 (continued)
Columbia College Chicago IL Private Non-Profit 4-Year 53Northwestern College MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 52University of Phoenix-Online Campus AZ Private For-Profit 4-Year 50Valparaiso University IN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 49Depaul University IL Private Non-Profit 4-Year 48American Intercontinental University GA Private For-Profit 4-Year 46Gogebic Community College MI Public 2-Year 45University of Notre Dame IN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 43Rochester Community and Technical College MN Public 2-Year 42University of Colorado at Boulder CO Public 4-Year 41Indiana University-Bloomington IN Public 4-Year 40North Central University MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 40Kaplan University IA Private For-Profit 4-Year 40Northeast Iowa Community College-Calmar IA Public 2-Year 37Minneapolis Business College MN Private For-Profit 2-Year 37University of North Dakota-Main Campus ND Public 4-Year 37The Illinois Institute of Art IL Private For-Profit 4-Year 36University of Dubuque IA Private Non-Profit 4-Year 35Macalester College MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 35Saint Paul College - A Community and Technical Col MN Public 2-Year 35Trinity International University IL Private Non-Profit 4-Year 33Drake University IA Private Non-Profit 4-Year 33Vermilion Community College MN Public 2-Year 33Hamline University MN Private Non-Profit 4-Year 31Minnesota State University-Moorhead MN Public 4-Year 31
Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Enrollments; ef2004c Final Release Data File
No. of StudentsInstitution State Sector
52
First-Time Freshmen Net Imports by Institution Type for
Wisconsin, Fall 2004
Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2002 Enrollments, Residency and Migration File
Proprietary
Private Non-Profit Other
Private Non-Profit 2-Year
Private Non-Profit 4-Year
Private Non-Profit Research
Public Other
Public 2-Year
Public 4-Year
Public Research
-757
-52
-103
-186
120
-89
-655
849
-440
-1,000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1,000
53
New Entering College Students as a Percent of Public High School Graduates, 2006
Note: High school graduates are 2002-03.
Wisconsin = 34.4%Source: University of Wisconsin System Administration
36.9% to 55.8%32.7% to 36.9%29.8% to 32.7%25.7% to 29.8%10.8% to 25.7%
MarquetteGreen Lake
Dodge
JuneauFond du Lac
Calumet
Ozaukee
Sheboygan
AdamsMonroe Winnebago
LafayetteRock
Walworth
Jefferson
Kenosha
RacineMilwaukee
Waushara
OutagamieManitowoc
Buffalo
TrempealeauPepin
Waukesha
Washington
BurnettWashburn
Florence
Forest
Menominee
Shawano
Oconto
Door
Kewaunee
La Crosse
Vernon
Portage
Polk
Bayfield
Ashland
MarinetteBarron
Brown
Chippewa
Clark
Columbia
CrawfordDane
Douglas
Dunn
Eau Claire
Grant
Green
Iowa
Iron
Jackson
LangladeLincoln
Marathon
Oneida
Pierce
Price
Richland
Rusk
Sauk
Sawyer
St. Croix
Taylor
Vilas
WaupacaWood
54
Two-Year New Entering Students as a Percent of
Public High School Graduates, 2004
9.1% to 35.5%5.6% to 9.1%2.5% to 5.6%0.8% to 2.5%0.0% to 0.8%
Note: High school graduates are 2002-03.
Source: University of Wisconsin System Administration
MarquetteGreen Lake
Dodge
JuneauFond du Lac
Calumet
Ozaukee
Sheboygan
AdamsMonroe Winnebago
LafayetteRock
Walworth
Jefferson
Kenosha
RacineMilwaukee
Waushara
OutagamieManitowoc
Buffalo
TrempealeauPepin
Waukesha
Washington
BurnettWashburn
Florence
Forest
Menominee
Shawano
Oconto
Door
Kewaunee
La Crosse
Vernon
Portage
Polk
Bayfield
Ashland
MarinetteBarron
Brown
Chippewa
Clark
Columbia
CrawfordDane
Douglas
Dunn
Eau Claire
Grant
Green
Iowa
Iron
Jackson
LangladeLincoln
Marathon
Oneida
Pierce
Price
Richland
Rusk
Sauk
Sawyer
St. Croix
Taylor
Vilas
WaupacaWood
Richland = 35.5
Wisconsin = 5.2
Kenosha = 0.15
55
Four-Year New Entering Students as a Percent of
Public High School Graduates, 2004
32.2% to 44.1%26.5% to 32.2%24.1% to 26.5%21.2% to 24.1%10.8% to 21.2%
MarquetteGreen Lake
Dodge
JuneauFond du Lac
Calumet
Ozaukee
Sheboygan
AdamsMonroe Winnebago
LafayetteRock
Walworth
Jefferson
Kenosha
RacineMilwaukee
Waushara
OutagamieManitowoc
Buffalo
TrempealeauPepin
Waukesha
Washington
BurnettWashburn
Florence
Forest
Menominee
Shawano
Oconto
Door
Kewaunee
La Crosse
Vernon
Portage
Polk
Bayfield
Ashland
MarinetteBarron
Brown
Chippewa
Clark
Columbia
CrawfordDane
Douglas
Dunn
Eau Claire
Grant
Green
Iowa
Iron
Jackson
LangladeLincoln
Marathon
Oneida
Pierce
Price
Richland
Rusk
Sauk
Sawyer
St. Croix
Taylor
Vilas
WaupacaWood
Vilas = 44.1
Wisconsin = 29.2
Iron = 10.8
Note: High school graduates are 2002-03.
Source: University of Wisconsin System Administration
56
Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004
17.5
23.4
12.6
47.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
Florida
Wyom
ingW
ashingtonR
hode IslandN
ew Y
orkIow
aM
ississippiU
tahH
awaii
Arizona
North C
arolinaC
aliforniaS
outh Dakota
Oregon
Kansas
Colorado
Minnesota
New
Ham
pshireU
nited States
North D
akotaIllinoisS
outh Carolina
Oklahom
aN
ew M
exicoK
entuckyIndianaA
labama
Michigan
Nevada
Missouri
Nebraska
IdahoV
irginiaP
ennsylvaniaO
hioM
assachusettsG
eorgiaT
ennesseeW
est Virginia
Wisconsin
Texas
Arkansas
Verm
ontN
ew Jersey
Montana
Maryland
Maine
Delaw
areA
laskaC
onnecticutLouisiana
Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE
57
Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004
50
.6
51
.8
21
.2
97
.4
0
25
50
75
100
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Delaw
areC
oloradoN
ew Y
orkA
rizonaN
ew H
ampshire
North C
arolinaU
tahV
ermont
Florida
Pennsylvania
Missouri
North D
akotaIndianaO
regonIow
aK
ansasG
eorgiaN
ebraskaM
ichiganV
irginiaT
ennesseeU
nited States
Connecticut
Wisconsin
Maryland
Montana
Alabam
aO
klahoma
South D
akotaW
ashingtonM
innesotaO
hioLouisianaS
outh Carolina
IllinoisC
aliforniaH
awaii
Maine
West V
irginiaK
entuckyM
ississippiT
exasN
evadaN
ew M
exicoN
ew Jersey
Arkansas
IdahoW
yoming
Alaska
Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE
58
Three-Year Graduation Rates at Two-Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent)
34.6
63.1
13.3
29.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
South D
akotaA
laskaW
yoming
Arizona
California
Utah
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Florida
Nevada
Nebraska
Montana
Kansas
Wisconsin
Washington
Maine
North D
akotaM
innesotaM
issouriIow
aW
est Virginia
New
Ham
pshireT
ennesseeLouisianaU
nited States
IdahoO
hioG
eorgiaO
klahoma
IndianaV
ermont
Oregon
IllinoisN
ew Y
orkK
entuckyV
irginiaA
rkansasA
labama
Haw
aiiN
ew M
exicoN
orth Carolina
Mississippi
Massachusetts
Texas
Rhode Island
Maryland
Connecticut
Michigan
South C
arolinaN
ew Jersey
Delaw
are
Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey
59
Six-Year Graduation Rates at Four-Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent)
58.5 55.8
20.3
67.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Massachusetts
Delaw
areM
arylandR
hode IslandP
ennsylvaniaIow
aW
ashingtonN
ew H
ampshire
Connecticut
California
Virginia
Verm
ontN
ew Jersey
IllinoisW
isconsinN
orth Carolina
Minnesota
Wyom
ingM
aineS
outh Carolina
New
York
United S
tatesO
regonM
ichiganN
ebraskaA
rizonaIndianaO
hioM
issouriF
loridaC
oloradoK
ansasT
exasM
ississippiT
ennesseeN
orth Dakota
Alabam
aG
eorgiaS
outh Dakota
Utah
Kentucky
IdahoO
klahoma
West V
irginiaA
rkansasM
ontanaLouisianaH
awaii
New
Mexico
Nevada
Alaska
Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey
60
Science and Engineering Degrees as a Share of Higher Education Degrees Conferred by State, 2004-05
29.3 26
.3
37.8
20.4
0
10
20
30
40
Sou
th Dako
taN
orth D
akotaM
aineM
arylandN
ebra
skaT
exasW
est Virginia
Louisiana
Alaska
Ken
tuckyW
isconsin
Virg
iniaM
ontana
Co
loradoIndian
aP
ennsylvania
Ne
w M
exicoN
orth C
arolinaT
ennessee
Ohio
Mississippi
Wyom
ingIdahoO
klahoma
Michigan
Arkansas
Alabam
aU
nited S
tatesS
outh C
arolinaM
innesota
IllinoisK
ansas
Georgia
Iowa
De
laware
Massachusetts
Utah
Ne
w Jerse
yO
regon
Missouri
Ca
liforniaN
ew
Ham
pshireA
rizona
Co
nnecticutW
ashington
Ha
waii
Florida
Ne
vadaN
ew
York
Verm
ontR
hode Island
Note: Science and Engineering include Agricultural Sciences, Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Physical Sciences, Science Tech, Health Sciences, Computer Science, Mathematics and Statistics, Engineering, and Engineering Tech.Degrees include Associate, Bachelor’s, Masters and Doctorate Degrees.
Source: NCES, IPEDS 2005 Completions File; c2005_a Final Release Data File
61
Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group—Wisconsin
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files
22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds
2,054
-225
-13,263
486
3,740
4,824
6,492
-15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000
30,963
527
4,306
518
6,911
9,283
9,418
0 8,000 16,000 24,000 32,000
Less than High School
High School
Some College
Associate
Bachelor’s
Graduate/Professional
Total
62
Wisconsin Occupations with High Net Imports and Exports,
1995-2000—Residents Age 22-29 with College Degrees
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files
-1,620
-1,171
-1,113
-1,048
-992
-844
-561
-548
-524
68
73
74
75
81
89
134
195
201
669
-1,144
-2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Primary, Secondary, & Special Education TeachersFinancial SpecialistsComputer SpecialistsBusiness Operations SpecialistsEngineersAdvertising, Mktg., Promotions, Public Rel. & Sales Mgrs.Sales Representatives, ServicesMedia & Communication WorkersSupervisors, Sales WorkersOther Management Occupations
Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching/DistributingMedia & Communication EquipmentCooks & Food Preparation Workers
Other Office & Administrative SupportMaterial Moving
Other TransportationLibrarians, Curators, Archivists
Motor Vehicle OperatorsNursing, Psychiatric, Home Health Aides
Postsecondary Teachers
63
Wisconsin Occupations with High Net Imports and Exports,
1995-2000—Residents Age 30-64 with College Degrees
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files
State Tax Capacity and Effort—Wisconsin Indexed to U.S. Average
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
GA HI
IL
IN IAKS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
US
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
NM
TNTX
WV
WI
WY
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Sta
te T
ax C
apacity
(Tota
l Taxable
Reso
urce
s Per C
apita
)
State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate)
81
Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a
Percent of Revenues, 2013
Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005
-0.5 -1
.0
-1.0 -1
.6 -2.1
-2.3 -2
.8
-2.9
-3.0 -3
.3 -3.8
-3.9 -4
.2
-4.2
-4.3
-4.3
-4.4
-4.4 -4
.8
-4.8
-4.8 -5
.1
-5.2
-5.2
-5.3 -5
.6
-5.6
-5.7
-5.7
-5.7
-5.8
-5.8
-5.9 -6
.2
-6.3
-6.5
-6.7
-6.8
-6.9
-7.0
-7.0 -7
.4 -8.0
-8.2
-8.9 -9
.3
-9.3 -9
.8
-10
.5
-10
.7
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
UtahM
ontana
New Hampshire
DelawareNew Jersey
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
WisconsinVerm
ontO
hioNorth Dakota
ConnecticutKansas
ArkansasVirginia
NebraskaO
klahoma
MinnesotaColorado
West Virginia
KentuckyM
ichiganArizona
New YorkG
eorgiaHawaiiIllinois
PennsylvaniaAlaska
Rhode IslandU
nited States
New Mexico
CaliforniaIowa
IndianaNorth Carolina
FloridaIdaho
South CarolinaSouth Dakota
Missouri
Washington
OregonTexas
NevadaTennesseeM
ississippiLouisianaAlabam
a
82
Summary Observations
■ Expansion and Diversification of State’s Economy
■ Variations in:
► Regional Access
► Access and Success of Minorities
■ Revitalizing Milwaukee
■ ???
Key Issues Facing Wisconsin
83
Conditions for Developing and Pursuing a Public Agenda
■ A Process for Creating—and Building Consensus Around—the Short List of State Priorities that the State’s “System” of Higher Education Should Be Addressing
■ A Mechanism for Keeping the Focus on this Agenda Over an Extended Period of Time