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Page 1: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska

Dennis P. Jones

Lincoln, Nebraska

December 5, 2007

National Center for Higher Education Management SystemsNational Center for Higher Education Management Systems3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251

Page 2: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

22

Why Focus on

Higher Education?

Page 3: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

33

Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength, 2005

AK

GA

KS

ME

NE

NV

NCOH

PA RI

VT

FL

ID

MIMO

NM

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees

Correlation = 0.83

AZ

DEIL

MD

MANJ

NY

OR

VA

WACA

CO

CT

MNNH

TX

UTAR

HI

INIA

LA

MT

ND

OK

SC

SD

AL

KY

MS

TN

WV

WI

WY

Personal Income

Per Capita

State New Economy Index (2002)

Top Tier

Middle Tier

Low Tier

US

Page 4: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

44

Per Capita Personal Income, 2005

32

,92

3

24

,66

4

34

,47

1

47

,38

8

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

Connecticut

New

JerseyM

assachusettsM

arylandN

ew Y

orkN

ew H

ampshire

Colorado

Virginia

Wyom

ingM

innesotaD

elaware

California

IllinoisN

evadaA

laskaW

ashingtonR

hode IslandP

ennsylvaniaH

awaii

United S

tatesF

loridaW

isconsinN

ebraskaK

ansasM

ichiganV

ermont

South D

akotaT

exasO

regonO

hioIow

aN

orth Dakota

Missouri

IndianaN

orth Carolina

Tennessee

Georgia

Maine

Arizona

Oklahom

aA

labama

Montana

IdahoS

outh Carolina

Kentucky

New

Mexico

Utah

Arkansas

West V

irginiaM

ississippiLouisiana

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Page 5: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

55

Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average—Nebraska, 1960-2005

Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce

94.092.3

94.292.6

95.694.2

92.8

100.1

95.5

90.6

80

90

100

110

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

U.S. Average

Page 6: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

66

Nebraska Per Capita Personal Income, 2004

Nebraska = $32,923

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Cass

SaundersSarpy

Seward

Washington

Stanton

Dodge

CumingMadison

Red Willow

Gosper

Hitchcock

Kearney

Franklin

Fillmore

Hamilton

MerrickPolk

Howard

Dakota

Thurston

Dixon

Lancaster

JeffersonThayer

NuckollsWebster

PawneeRichardson

NemahaJohnson

Sherman

GarfieldWheeler

Boyd

Harlan

Adams

Antelope

ArthurBanner

Blaine

Boone

Box Butte

Brown

Buffalo

Burt

Butler

Cedar

Chase

Cherry

Cheyenne

Clay

Colfax

Custer

Dawes

Dawson

Deuel

Douglas

Dundy

Frontier

FurnasGage

Garden

Grant

Greeley

Hall

Hayes

Holt

Hooker

Keith

Keya Paha

Kimball

Knox

Lincoln

Logan

Loup

McPherson

Morrill

Nance

Otoe

Perkins

Phelps

Pierce

Platte

Rock

Saline

Scotts Bluff

SheridanSioux

Thomas

Valley

Wayne

York

30,253 to 41,21928,068 to 30,25326,799 to 28,06824,303 to 26,79910,628 to 24,303

Page 7: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

77

Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Health, 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; United Health Foundation

-30

-15

0

15

30

10% 20% 30% 40%-

-

-

-

-

-

NC

AL

AKAZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

GA

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

ND

OH

OK

ORPA

RI

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

US

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

WV

WI

WY

AL

AZ CA

CO

CT

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NY

OR

RI

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

TX

WV

WI

WY

AL

AZ CA

CO

CT

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NY

OR

RI

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

TX

WV

WI

WY

-30

-15

0

15

30

10% 20% 30% 40%-

-

-

-

-

-

NC

AL

AKAZ CA

CO

CT

DE

GA

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NY

OK

ORPA

RI

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

WV

WI

WY

AL

AZ CA

CO

CT

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NY

OR

RI

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

TX

WV

WI

WY

AL

AZ CA

CO

CT

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NY

OR

RI

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

TX

WV

WI

WY

NC

AL

AKAZ CA

CO

CT

DE

GA

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NY

OK

ORPA

RI

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

WV

WI

WY

AL

AZ CA

CO

CT

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NY

OR

RI

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

TX

WV

WI

WY

AL

AZ CA

CO

CT

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NY

OR

RI

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

TX

WV

WI

WY

Percent of Adults 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

State Health Index—United Health Foundation

Page 8: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

88

The Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Employment in the Arts, 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS)

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees, 2005

Em

plo

ym

ent in

Arts a

nd E

nte

rtain

men

t per 1

,00

0 E

mp

loyees

AKAZ

ARDE

GA HI

IL

IN

IA

KS

LA

MEMD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OHOK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

ID

KY

MIMN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TN TX

UT

WV

WI

WY

4

8

12

16

20

15 20 25 30 35 40

Page 9: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

99

Population and Workforce

Page 10: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1010

Nebraska Total Population Estimates By County, 2005

Nebraska = 1,758,163

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates

Cass

SaundersSarpy

Seward

Washington

Stanton

Dodge

CumingMadison

Red Willow

Gosper

Hitchcock

Kearney

Franklin

Fillmore

Hamilton

MerrickPolk

Howard

Dakota

Thurston

Dixon

Lancaster

JeffersonThayer

NuckollsWebster

PawneeRichardson

NemahaJohnson

Sherman

GarfieldWheeler

Boyd

Harlan

Adams

Antelope

ArthurBanner

Blaine

Boone

Box Butte

Brown

Buffalo

Burt

Butler

Cedar

Chase

Cherry

Cheyenne

Clay

Colfax

Custer

Dawes

Dawson

Deuel

Douglas

Dundy

Frontier

FurnasGage

Garden

Grant

Greeley

Hall

Hayes

Holt

Hooker

Keith

Keya Paha

Kimball

Knox

Lincoln

Logan

Loup

McPherson

Morrill

Nance

Otoe

Perkins

Phelps

Pierce

Platte

Rock

Saline

Scotts Bluff

SheridanSioux

Thomas

Valley

Wayne

York

16,736 to 486,8548,592 to 16,7365,394 to 8,5922,252 to 5,394

374 to 2,252

Page 11: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1111

Population Projections—Percent Change, 2000-25

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5.9

24

.20

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ne

vadaA

rizona

Florida

Texas

Utah

IdahoN

orth C

arolinaG

eorgiaW

ashington

Oreg

onV

irginia

Alaska

Ca

liforniaC

olorado

Ne

w H

ampshire

Maryland

De

laware

Sou

th Carolina

Tenn

esseeM

innesota

Un

ited States

Ha

waii

Arkansas

Ne

w M

exicoV

ermont

Monta

naN

ew

Jersey

Wiscon

sinM

issouriK

entucky

Maine

Oklahom

aIndian

aR

hode Island

Massachusetts

Kan

sasC

onnecticut

Alabam

aM

ississippiM

ichiganIllinoisW

yoming

Louisiana

Sou

th Dako

taN

ebra

skaP

ennsylvania

Ne

w Y

orkIow

aO

hioW

est Virginia

No

rth Dakota

85.8

93.3

-3.3

Page 12: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1212

Nebraska Change in Total Population By County, 2005-2020

Nebraska = 295,274

Source: Nebraska Department of Economic Development; University of Nebraska, Bureau of Business Research

2,618 to 97,404200 to 2,618

-135 to 200-446 to -135

-1,625 to -446

Cass

SaundersSarpy

Seward

Washington

Stanton

Dodge

CumingMadison

Red Willow

Gosper

Hitchcock

Kearney

Franklin

Fillmore

Hamilton

MerrickPolk

Howard

Dakota

Thurston

Dixon

Lancaster

JeffersonThayer

NuckollsWebster

PawneeRichardson

NemahaJohnson

Sherman

GarfieldWheeler

Boyd

Harlan

Adams

Antelope

ArthurBanner

Blaine

Boone

Box Butte

Brown

Buffalo

Burt

Butler

Cedar

Chase

Cherry

Cheyenne

Clay

Colfax

Custer

Dawes

Dawson

Deuel

Douglas

Dundy

Frontier

FurnasGage

Garden

Grant

Greeley

Hall

Hayes

Holt

Hooker

Keith

Keya Paha

Kimball

Knox

Lincoln

Logan

Loup

McPherson

Morrill

Nance

Otoe

Perkins

Phelps

Pierce

Platte

Rock

Saline

Scotts Bluff

SheridanSioux

Thomas

Valley

Wayne

York

Page 13: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1313

Projected Change in Nebraska Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2000-20

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

-11,939

-13,187

-25,692

48,937

7,549 2,293

4,869

8,193

4,629

10,165 3,541

9,181

10,256 5,825

6,654 2,311

4,931

4,581

3,118

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+

WhiteAfrican AmericanHispanicOther

100,429

Page 14: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1414

Percent of Civilian Population Age 25-64 Participating in the Workforce, 2005

82.7

85.4

67.7

77.8

0

30

60

90

North D

ako

taM

inne

sota

Sou

th D

akotaIo

wa

Verm

on

tN

ebra

skaW

yom

ing

Wisco

nsinN

ew H

amp

shire

Kan

sas

Colora

do

Maryla

nd

Con

necticu

tR

hode

island

Mon

tana

Massa

chu

setts

Ala

skaD

elaware

New

Jersey

Illinois

Uta

hV

irgin

iaM

aineH

awa

iiN

evada

Misso

uriIn

diana

Ore

gon

Pen

nsylvania

Ohio

United

Sta

tesW

ash

ingto

nN

orth Ca

rolin

aG

eorg

iaT

exasM

ichiga

nId

aho

New

York

Florid

aC

alifornia

Arizon

aS

outh

Caro

linaO

klahom

aN

ew M

exico

Ten

nessee

Arkan

sas

Mississipp

iL

ouisian

aA

laba

ma

Ken

tucky

We

st Virginia

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 15: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1515

Percent of Civilians Age 25-64 Not Participating in the Workforce—By Education Attainment, 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

U.S. Nebraska

Less than High School 37.0 29.8

High School 24.7 19.1

Some College 21.0 18.7

Associate Degree 17.4 11.2

Bachelor’s Degree 16.5 14.2

Graduate/Prof. Degree 13.9 11.9

Page 16: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1616

Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Nebraska, 2005 (Percent)

27th

17th

5th

12th

12th

01020304050

Age 25-64 withGraduate/Prof. Degree

Age 25-64 withBachelor's or Higher

Age 25-64 withAssociate Degree

Age 25-64 with HSDiploma

Age 18-24 with HSDiploma

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

84.0%

8.9%

91.8%

10.4%

30.0%

Page 17: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1717

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2005

40

.4

25

.0

37

.4

48

.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

Massa

chu

setts

Con

necticu

tC

olorad

oN

ew Jerse

yM

inne

sota

New

Ham

psh

ireV

ermo

nt

Maryla

nd

New

York

Virg

inia

North D

ako

taW

ash

ingto

nR

hode

Island

Haw

aii

Neb

raska

Illinois

Califo

rniaU

tah

Kan

sas

Sou

th D

akotaIo

wa

United

Sta

tesW

isconsin

Ore

gon

Maine

Delaw

areP

ennsylva

niaF

lorida

Mon

tana

Ala

skaN

orth Ca

rolin

aM

ichiga

nG

eorg

iaA

rizona

Wyo

min

gId

aho

Ohio

New

Me

xicoS

outh

Caro

linaM

issouri

Texas

Oklah

oma

Indian

aA

laba

ma

Ten

nessee

Mississipp

iN

evada

Ken

tucky

Lou

isiana

Arkan

sas

We

st Virginia

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

Page 18: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1818

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2000

27

37

.1

16

.5

26

.50

10

20

30

40

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

Page 19: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

1919

Percent of Population Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, 2000

Nebraska = 27.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

21.8 to 35.319.9 to 21.817.9 to 19.916.2 to 17.912.7 to 16.2

Cass

SaundersSarpy

Seward

Washington

Stanton

Dodge

CumingMadison

Red Willow

Gosper

Hitchcock

Kearney

Franklin

Fillmore

Hamilton

MerrickPolk

Howard

Dakota

Thurston

Dixon

Lancaster

JeffersonThayer

NuckollsWebster

PawneeRichardson

NemahaJohnson

Sherman

GarfieldWheeler

Boyd

Harlan

Adams

Antelope

ArthurBanner

Blaine

Boone

Box Butte

Brown

Buffalo

Burt

Butler

Cedar

Chase

Cherry

Cheyenne

Clay

Colfax

Custer

Dawes

Dawson

Deuel

Douglas

Dundy

Frontier

FurnasGage

Garden

Grant

Greeley

Hall

Hayes

Holt

Hooker

Keith

Keya Paha

Kimball

Knox

Lincoln

Logan

Loup

McPherson

Morrill

Nance

Otoe

Perkins

Phelps

Pierce

Platte

Rock

Saline

Scotts Bluff

SheridanSioux

Thomas

Valley

Wayne

York

Page 20: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2020

Gaps in Percentage of Residents Age 25-64 with a College Degree Between the Most and Least Educated Counties, 2000

25

.5

35

.3

61

.3

14

.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Virginia

New

Me

xicoT

exas

Indiana

North C

arolin

aT

ennesse

eC

oloradoM

aryland

Michig

anF

lorida

California

Geo

rgiaS

outh D

akotaK

ansasM

issouri

Ore

gonO

hioN

ew Jersey

Iowa

Washing

tonIllinoisW

isconsinN

ew Y

orkP

ennsylvania

Kentu

ckyM

ississippiIda

hoV

ermont

50-S

tate Average

Utah

Alabam

aA

laskaM

innesota

West V

irginia

Mo

ntanaW

yoming

South

Carolina

Oklah

oma

Louisiana

North D

akotaA

rkansas

Ma

ine

Nebraska

Ma

ssachusetts

Arizona

Conn

ecticutN

ew H

ampshire

Nevad

aH

awaii

Rhod

e Island

Delaw

are

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

Page 21: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2121

Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree Born In-State, 2005

63

.9

52

.4

76

.8

8.8

0

20

40

60

80

Source: 2005 ACS

Page 22: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2222

Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Born In-State, 2005

41

.7

55

.6

64

.4

8.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: 2005 ACS

Page 23: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2323

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults—U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007

0

20

40

60

Canada

JapanK

oreaN

orway

IrelandB

elgiumD

enmark

Spain

France

United S

tates A

ustraliaF

inlandS

weden

Luxembourg

IcelandN

etherlandsU

nited Kingdom

Sw

itzerlandN

ew Z

ealand P

olandG

reeceG

ermany

Austria

Hungary

Portugal

Mexico

Slovak R

epublicItaly C

zech Republic

Turkey

25 to 34

45 to 54

Page 24: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2424

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults—U.S., 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

20

30

40

50

60

Massachusetts

Minnesota

New

York

North D

akotaN

ew Jersey

New

Ham

pshireC

onnecticutN

ebraskaC

oloradoM

arylandV

irginiaS

outh Dakota

Iowa

Verm

ontR

hode IslandP

ennsylvaniaIllinoisW

isconsinW

ashingtonK

ansasU

tahU

nited States

Delaw

areM

ontanaH

awaii

Michigan

Georgia

North C

arolinaM

aineO

hioC

aliforniaF

loridaO

regonM

issouriIndianaM

ississippiS

outh Carolina

Wyom

ingA

labama

Arizona

Alaska

Tennessee

Kentucky

Oklahom

aT

exasIdahoW

est Virginia

LouisianaN

ew M

exicoA

rkansasN

evada

Age 25-34

Age 45-54

Page 25: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2525

Percentage Differences Between Younger Adults (Age 25-34) and Older Adults (Age 45-54) with College Degrees—

Associate and Higher, 2005

9.4

7.5 6

.7 6.3

6.2

4.9 4.6

4.5

4.4 4.2

4.2 3.9 3.6

3.5 3

.0 2.4 1

.81

.8 1.6

1.5 1.2

1.1

0.9 0.6

0.6 0.3

0.1

-0.5

-0.8

-0.8 -1

.5-1

.7-1

.8-1

.9-3

.6-3

.7-3

.8 -4.2

-4.5 -5

.4-5

.5-6

.6

3.8

-1.3

1.3

0.4

1.2

-6.8

0.1

10

.0

6.9

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

So

uth

Da

kota

Iow

aM

inn

eso

taN

eb

raska

Ne

w Y

ork

Pe

nn

sylvan

iaW

iscon

sinM

ississipp

iN

ew

Ha

mp

shire

Ind

ian

aO

hio

No

rth D

ako

taM

assa

chu

setts

We

st Virg

inia

Illino

isL

ou

isian

aK

en

tucky

Rh

od

e Isla

nd

Misso

uri

Ka

nsa

sT

en

ne

ssee

Ne

w Je

rsey

Mich

iga

nA

rkan

sas

Ala

ba

ma

Ge

org

iaM

aryla

nd

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Uta

hN

orth

Ca

rolin

aD

ela

wa

reM

on

tan

aW

yom

ing

Virg

inia

Wa

shin

gto

nO

klah

om

aF

lorid

aS

ou

th C

aro

lina

Ore

go

nM

ain

eC

on

ne

cticut

Co

lora

do

Te

xas

Ca

liforn

iaN

eva

da

Ida

ho

Ala

skaA

rizon

aV

erm

on

tH

aw

aii

Ne

w M

exico

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

Page 26: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2626

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—Nebraska, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries

53.8

53.2 51.0

40.9

40.6

40.6

39.8

39.7

39.3

39.2

44.7

49.5 46.6

35.6

35.1

30.4

33.4

34.8

30.2

24.5

39.9

42.6

42.5 38.5

17.6

29.9

21.8

26.9

32.0

21.6 18.5

39.5

37.8

36.4

21.7

10.0

24.0

16.7

21.9

27.3

14.5

15.5

36.9 34.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Canada Japan Korea Norway Ireland Belgium Denmark Spain France U.S. Nebraska

Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2007

Page 27: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2727

Additional Degrees (Associate and Higher) Needed to Meet Performance of Top Country*—Population Age 25-44

* In Canada, 50.13% of adults age 25-44 have college degrees (Associate and above).

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD

-7,7

98

30,173

91,175

-50,000

50,000

150,000

250,000

350,000

450,000

550,000

650,000

California

Texas

Florida

Ohio

Georgia

Michigan

Pennsylvania

Tennessee

North C

arolinaIndianaIllinoisA

rizonaLouisianaM

issouriK

entuckyA

labama

New

York

South C

arolinaO

klahoma

Nevada

Arkansas

Washington

Mississippi

Wisconsin

Oregon

Virginia

West V

irginiaN

ew M

exicoN

ew Jersey

Utah

Maryland

Kansas

Colorado

Iowa

IdahoM

aineM

innesotaC

onnecticutH

awaii

Montana

Nebraska

Delaw

areA

laskaW

yoming

Rhode Island

New

Ham

pshireS

outh Dakota

Verm

ontN

orth Dakota

Massachusetts

1,175,054

1,318,974

Page 28: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2828

Percent Educational Attainment of Nebraska’s Young Workforce (Age 25-34)—Indexed to Most Educated Country, 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD

Males Males Males Males MalesFemales Females Females Females Females

Native American/ Asian/White African-American Hispanic/Latino Alaska Native Pacific Islander

0

50

100

150

200

Top Country (Norway)

U.S. Index = 81%

Bachelor's Degree or Higher

0

50

100

150

200

Top Country (Canada)

U.S. Index = 72%

All College Degrees (Associate or Higher)

Page 29: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

2929

Percent Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 By Race/Ethnicity—Nebraska, 2005

4.5

29.0

11.7

22.0

8.8

20.2

35.7

26.4

6.2

7.7

3.8

50.4

22.6

15.8

4.2

5.0

2.0

24.00

20

40

60

Less thanHigh School

High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/Professional

White Non-Hispanic

Black Non-Hispanic

Hispanic

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

Page 30: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3030

Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree

or Higher, 2000

32

.9

19

.3

35

.8

1.4

0

10

20

30

40

Colorado

California

Conn

ecticutN

ebraskaS

outh D

akotaN

ew Y

orkM

assachuse

ttsN

ew Jersey

Kansas

Rhod

e Island

Te

xasN

orth Dakota

Washing

tonA

rizonaA

laskaU

tahIllinoisIow

aW

isconsinO

regon

Minn

esotaN

ew M

exico

Idaho

Virginia

Nevad

aM

ontana

Pennsylva

niaM

aryland

Wyom

ingD

elaware

United

States

Michig

anS

outh C

arolinaN

ew H

ampshire

North C

arolin

aM

ississippiLo

uisianaG

eorgia

Missou

riO

hioA

labama

Indiana

Arkan

sasF

lorida

Te

nnessee

Kentu

ckyV

ermont

Oklah

oma

Ma

ine

West V

irginia

Haw

aii

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

Page 31: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3131

The Student Pipeline

Page 32: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3232

Student Pipeline, 2004

Source: NCES Common Core Data 2004; Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Education Opportunity; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Retention Rate File and Fall 2003 Enrollments, 2004 Graduation Rates; U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

91.3

57.3

42.0

27.3

69.7

38.8

26.9

18.4

83.8

50.0

34.7

24.7

42.3

29.7 32.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

Graduate fromHigh School

Directly EnterCollege

Enroll inSecond Year

GraduateWithin 150% ofProgram Time

Are Age 25-44with a Bachelor's

Degree

Best Performing StateUnited StatesNebraska

Of 100 9th Graders,

How Many…

Page 33: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3333

High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2004

83

.8

69

.7

50

.7

91

.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

New

Jersey

Uta

hN

orth Da

kota

Iow

aN

ebra

skaM

inne

sota

Verm

on

tS

outh

Dakota

Idah

oM

onta

naP

ennsylva

niaW

isconsin

Maine

Misso

uriK

ansa

sO

hioC

onne

cticut

New

Ham

psh

ireIllin

oisA

rkansa

sW

yom

ing

Massa

chu

setts

Oklah

oma

Maryla

nd

Colora

do

Virg

inia

We

st Virginia

Ore

gon

Rho

de Isla

ndC

alifornia

Wa

shing

ton

Indian

aU

nited S

tates

Michig

an

Lou

isiana

Texas

Delaw

areH

awa

iiK

entu

ckyA

rizona

North C

aro

lina

Ten

nessee

Ala

skaN

ew Y

orkN

ew M

exico

Ala

bam

aM

ississippi

Florid

aG

eorg

iaS

outh

Caro

linaN

evada

Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (rev. 071106)

Page 34: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3434

Nebraska Projected High School Graduates By Race/Ethnicity from 2000-01 to 2017-18

Source: Western Interstate Higher Education Commission (WICHE)

15,67714,015

17,293

5,910

3,1541,894

19,92518,83119,187

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

White Minority Total

Page 35: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3535

College-Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004

59.6 55.5

68.8

42.6

0

25

50

75

Sou

th Dako

taN

ew

York

No

rth Dakota

Sou

th Carolina

Minneso

taN

orth C

arolinaG

eorgiaM

assachusettsN

ew

Jersey

Indiana

Iowa

Ne

w M

exicoK

ansas

Co

nnecticutA

labama

Mississippi

Ne

braska

Pen

nsylvaniaW

yoming

Michigan

Maryland

Wiscon

sinM

ontana

Co

loradoV

irginia

Ken

tuckyA

rkansasR

hode Island

Un

ited States

Ne

w H

ampshire

IllinoisN

evada

Louisiana

De

laware

Florida

West V

irginiaO

klahoma

Ohio

Missouri

Texas

Ha

waii

Maine

Arizo

naT

ennessee

IdahoO

regon

Alaska

Ca

liforniaV

ermont

Washingto

nU

tah

Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (2004 data update 02-06-07)

Page 36: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3636

Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004

20.2

23.4

12.6

47.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

Florida

Wyom

ingW

ashingtonR

hode IslandN

ew Y

orkIow

aM

ississippiU

tahH

awaii

Arizona

North C

arolinaC

aliforniaS

outh Dakota

Oregon

Kansas

Colorado

Minnesota

New

Ham

pshireU

nited States

North D

akotaIllinoisS

outh Carolina

Oklahom

aN

ew M

exicoK

entuckyIndianaA

labama

Michigan

Nevada

Missouri

Nebraska

IdahoV

irginiaP

ennsylvaniaO

hioM

assachusettsG

eorgiaT

ennesseeW

est Virginia

Wisconsin

Texas

Arkansas

Verm

ontN

ew Jersey

Montana

Maryland

Maine

Delaw

areA

laskaC

onnecticutLouisiana

Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

Page 37: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3737

Three-Year Graduation Rates at Two Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent)

35.7

63.1

13.3

29.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

Page 38: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3838

Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004

53

.1

51

.8

21

.2

97

.4

0

25

50

75

100

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

Delaw

areC

oloradoN

ew Y

orkA

rizonaN

ew H

ampshire

North C

arolinaU

tahV

ermont

Florida

Pennsylvania

Missouri

North D

akotaIndianaO

regonIow

aK

ansasG

eorgiaN

ebraskaM

ichiganV

irginiaT

ennesseeU

nited States

Connecticut

Wisconsin

Maryland

Montana

Alabam

aO

klahoma

South D

akotaW

ashingtonM

innesotaO

hioLouisianaS

outh Carolina

IllinoisC

aliforniaH

awaii

Maine

West V

irginiaK

entuckyM

ississippiT

exasN

evadaN

ew M

exicoN

ew Jersey

Arkansas

IdahoW

yoming

Alaska

Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE

Page 39: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

3939

Six-Year Graduation Rates at Four Year Colleges, 2005 (Percent)

55.8

55.2

20.3

67.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Source: NCES, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

Page 40: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4040

Race/Ethnic Representation at Each Stage of the Education Pipeline—Nebraska, 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; NCES Common Core of Data; NCES, IPEDS Fall 2005 Enrollments File, 2004-05 Completions File

83

.1

86

.5

86

.6

87

.3

89

.3

89

.7

87

.6

5.3

4.8

4.6

4.3

4.8 3.0

3.7

7.7 6.0 4.2

3.6

2.7

2.3

2.4

1.5

1.7

2.3

2.1

1.4

1.9

2.1

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

18-Year-Olds High SchoolGraduates

First-TimeFreshman

All OtherUndergraduates

AssociateDegreesAwarded

Bachelor'sDegreesAwarded

All Credentialsand Degrees

Awarded

White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic/Latino

Asian/Pacific Islander Native American/Alaska Native

Page 41: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4141

Part-Time Undergraduates as a Percent of Population Age 25-44, 2004

7.0 6.5

3.5

10.7

0

3

6

9

12

Ne

w M

exicoA

rizona

Utah

Ca

liforniaW

yoming

Alaska

Kan

sasIow

aIllinoisM

ichiganF

loridaT

exasN

evada

Ne

braska

Missouri

Maryland

Ha

waii

Oreg

onW

isconsin

Co

loradoU

nited S

tatesW

ashington

Sou

th Dako

taO

klahoma

Minneso

taV

irginia

Ken

tuckyM

aineD

elaw

areR

hode Island

No

rth Carolina

No

rth Dakota

Arkansas

Verm

ontO

hioA

labama

IdahoIndian

aC

onnecticut

Ne

w H

ampshire

Sou

th Carolina

Ne

w Jerse

yM

assachusettsG

eorgiaLouisian

aP

ennsylvania

Ne

w Y

orkW

est Virginia

Monta

naT

ennessee

Mississippi

Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2004 Enrollments; U.S. Census Bureau 2004 Population Estimates

Page 42: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4242

Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group—Nebraska

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% PUMS Files

22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds

1,812

-1,278

-3,169

-653

478

2,191

4,243

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000

1,065

-2,716

-348

184

-985

185

4,745

-3,000 -1,500 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000

Less than High School

High School

Some College

Associate

Bachelor’s

Graduate/Professional

Total

Page 43: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4343

Migration Rate* of College-Educated Residents Age 22-64—Associate and Higher, 1995-2000

* Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with college degrees.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census)

203.0127.0 103.0

100.097.0 81.0

75.070.0 61.0

58.055.053.052.048.044.040.038.036.033.031.0

23.020.018.0

10.09.08.08.0 3.0

-2.0-3.0-3.0-5.0

-6.0-6.0-8.0-11.0-12.0-16.0-16.0-18.0

-24.0-24.0-25.0 -44.0

-45.0-46.0-51.0-53.0

-103.0

-6.0

-120

-60

0

60

120

180

240

Ne

vad

aA

rizon

aF

lorida

Ge

orgia

Co

lorad

oN

orth C

aro

lina

Ore

gon

Wa

shin

gton

Te

xas

Virgin

iaC

alifo

rniaS

outh

Ca

rol inaM

arylan

dT

enn

essee

Idah

oN

ew

Jersey

Ne

w H

am

psh

ireD

elaw

are

Min

nesota

Massa

chu

setts

Main

eA

rkansa

sC

on

necticu

tK

entu

ckyM

issou

riIllin

oisM

ichigan

Ne

w M

exico

Ala

ba

ma

Ha

wa

iiV

erm

on

tR

ho

de

Islan

dK

an

sas

Ne

w Y

ork

Oh

ioW

iscon

sinM

ississipp

iU

tah

Ind

ian

aO

klah

om

aP

en

nsylva

nia

Ala

skaN

eb

raska

Mo

nta

na

Wyo

min

gL

ou

isian

aW

est V

irgin

iaS

ou

th D

ako

taIo

wa

No

rth D

ako

ta

Page 44: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4444

Nebraska Net Migration of College Degree Holders Age 22-29 by Occupation, 1995 to 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5% PUMS File

Primary, Secondary, & Special Education TeachersHealth Diagnosing & Treating PractitionersOther Management OccupationsAdvertising, Mktg., Promotions, Public Rel., Sales ManagersFinancial SpecialistsLawyers, Judges, & Related WorkersSales Representatives, ServicesOther Sales & Related WorkersLegal SupportTop ExecutivesInformation & Record ClerksOther Production OccupationsCounselors, Social Workers, Other Community/Social ServiceMathematical Science OccupationsEngineersCooks & Food Preparation WorkersNursing, Psychiatric, & Home Health Aides

Material Recording, Scheduling, Dispatching, & DistributingSecretaries & Administrative Assistants

Postsecondary Teachers

-1,113

-831

-768

-444

-367

-308

-231

-216

-202

-189

-173

-163

-145

-134

-123

-118

-118

205

240

473

-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500

Page 45: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4545

Nebraska Net Migration of College Degree Holders Age 30-64 by Occupation, 1995 to 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census 5% PUMS File

-1,030

-844

-426

-367

-243

-228

-208

-199

-196

-188

-183

-170

-149

-145

142

145

167

199

218

221

232

-1,200 -800 -400 0 400 800 1,200

Health Diagnosing & Treating PractitionersPrimary, Secondary, & Special Education TeachersOther Management OccupationsAdvertising, Mktg., Promotions, Public Rel., Sales Mgrs.Sales Representatives, Wholesale & ManufacturingLawyers, Judges, & Related WorkersSupervisors, Sales WorkersSocial Scientists & Related WorkersSupervisors, Office & Administrative Support WorkersOperations Specialties ManagersLaw Enforcement WorkersEngineersAir Transportation WorkersOther Military Occupations

Health Technologists & TechniciansBuilding Cleaning & Pest Control Workers

Supervisors, Production WorkersBusiness Operations Specialists

Other Production OccupationsFirst-Line Enlisted Military Supervisor/Managers

Other Sales & Related Workers

Page 46: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4646

Migration Rate* of Residents Age 22-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 1995-2000

* Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with less than a high school diploma.

Source: State Higher Education Officers (SHEEO)

13

01

06

10

5

10

3 99 96 94

77 76 73 71 6

4 63 61 5

7 54 51 49

39 38

38 37

37 35 33 32 29 26 25

25 22 20 17 1

2 11 8

-1 -3-4

6

14

3

10

4

45

14

2

64

76

95

46

52

56

-50

0

50

100

150

Neva

da

Colo

rado

Arizo

na

Uta

hO

regon

Geo

rgia

Kansa

sN

ebra

skaF

lorid

aM

inn

eso

taN

orth

Caro

lina

Dela

ware

Wash

ing

ton

Te

xas

Rhod

e Isla

nd

Conn

ecticu

tIo

wa

Okla

hom

aId

aho

New

Jerse

yA

rkan

sas

Ma

ssach

use

ttsS

outh

Caro

lina

Virg

inia

Wisco

nsin

Te

nnesse

eIllin

ois

Ma

ryland

Ind

iana

New

Me

xicoM

ichig

an

Misso

uri

New

Ham

psh

ireK

entu

ckyN

ew

York

Califo

rnia

Ala

bam

aM

ississippi

Mo

nta

na

Ma

ine

South

Dako

taP

ennsylva

nia

Haw

aii

Ala

skaO

hio

Lo

uisia

na

West V

irgin

iaW

yoming

North D

akotaV

ermont

240

Page 47: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4747

Production of College Graduates (Undergraduate Credentials and Degrees Awarded Per 1,000 Residents Age 18-44 with High School Diploma or Some College but No College Degree)

States’ Ability to Produce Graduates vs. Ability to Keep and Attract Graduates

Migration Rate of Residents

Age 22-29 with a College Degree

New Economy Index (2002)

Top Tier

Middle Tier

Low Tier

-350

-280

-210

-140

-70

0

70

140

210

280

350

10 20 30 40 50 60

Low Production, Importer of Capital High Production, Importer of Capital

Low Production, Exporter of Capital High Production, Exporter of Capital

AK

GA

KS

ME

NE

NV

NC

OH

PARI

VT

FL

ID

MI

MO

NM

AZCA

CO

CT

DE

IL

MD

MANJ

NY

OR

UT

VA

WA

MN

NH

TX

ALAR

HI

IN

IA

LAMS

MT

ND

OK

SC

SD

TN

WV

WI

WY

KY

4747

Page 48: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4848

Median Earnings by Degree Level, 2005

20,384

25,480

29,353

30,780

48,921

63,190

30,57620,384

26,499

30,576

36,691

58,094

80,516

33,633

40,768

46,883

$0

$30,000

$60,000

$90,000

Less thanHigh School

High School SomeCollege

Associate Bachelor's Masters Doctorate/Professional

All Levels

Nebraska United States

Note:Data represent persons age 18-64 with positive earnings working 35+ hours per week.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

Page 49: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

4949

Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and an Associate Degree, 2005

5,300

10,192

3,058

14,269

$0

$3,000

$6,000

$9,000

$12,000

$15,000

Alaska

Ca

liforniaN

ew

Jersey

Maryland

Texas

Arizo

naM

ichiganV

irginia

IdahoD

elaw

areG

eorgiaM

issouriU

nited S

tatesN

ew

Mexico

Sou

th Carolina

Co

nnecticutA

labama

Co

loradoF

loridaK

entucky

Oreg

onT

ennessee

Washingto

nIllinoisH

aw

aiiM

assachusettsN

evada

Wyom

ingLouisian

aU

tahM

aineIndian

aM

innesota

No

rth Carolina

Ohio

Oklahom

aP

ennsylvania

Verm

ontW

isconsin

Ne

w H

ampshire

Rh

ode IslandN

ew

York

Arkansas

Kan

sasM

ississippiN

orth D

akotaS

outh D

akota

West V

irginiaN

ebra

skaIow

aM

ontana

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

Page 50: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5050

Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School Diploma and a Bachelor’s Degree, 2005

15

,28

8

20

,38

4

10

,19

2

25

,48

0

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Ca

liforniaA

laskaV

irginia

Co

nnecticutN

ew

Jersey

Georgia

Maryland

Michigan

Texas

Washingto

nN

ew

York

Arizo

naU

nited S

tatesIllinoisA

labama

Arkansas

Co

loradoM

assachusettsM

innesota

Oreg

onN

ew

Mexico

Ne

w H

ampshire

IdahoIndian

aM

issouriN

evada

Ohio

Pen

nsylvaniaR

hode Island

De

laware

Florida

Ha

waii

No

rth Carolina

Sou

th Carolina

Tenn

esseeU

tahK

ansas

Ken

tuckyN

ebra

skaO

klahoma

Wiscon

sinM

aineM

ississippiLouisian

aW

est Virginia

Verm

ontW

yoming

Iowa

Monta

naN

orth D

akotaS

outh D

akota

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File

Page 51: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5151

Economy and

Innovation Assets

Page 52: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5252

Percent of Total Gross State Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S.

6.7

0.1

3.9

12

.9

7.9 6

.9

6.9

16

.5

23

.6

14

.5

5.0

0.1

4.4

12

.2

8.4 6

.7

6.7

17

.0

24

.7

14

.8

1.0

1.3

4.6

12

.8

5.0

5.9

6.8

20

.8

29

.9

11

.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing

Mining Construction Manufacturing Transp. &Utilities

WholesaleTrade

Retail T rade Finance,Insurance,Real Estate

Services Government

Nebraska 1997

Nebraska 2004

U.S. 2004

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 53: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5353

Change in Gross State Product, 1997-2004

34

.9

41

.6

24

.5

67

.4

0

25

50

75

Nevad

aW

yom

ing

Arizon

aV

irgin

iaF

lorida

Delaw

areId

aho

Califo

rniaC

olorad

oS

outh

Dakota

Maryla

nd

Texas

North C

aro

lina

Wa

shing

ton

Rho

de Isla

ndU

tah

Geo

rgia

Verm

on

tM

onta

naM

inne

sota

Massa

chu

setts

Ten

nessee

New

Ham

psh

ireU

nited S

tates

Maine

Sou

th C

arolina

Wisco

nsinN

orth Da

kota

New

Jersey

Oklah

oma

Kan

sas

New

York

Arkan

sas

Ala

bam

aP

ennsylva

niaA

laska

Iow

aIn

diana

Lou

isiana

Con

necticu

tN

ebra

skaH

awa

iiO

rego

nM

ississippi

Illinois

Ken

tucky

New

Me

xicoM

issouri

We

st Virginia

Ohio

Michig

an

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Page 54: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5454

Employment in High-Technology Establishments as Share of Total Employment by State, 2004

5.0

2.4

9.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED)

Page 55: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5555

Projected Percent Change in Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Training, 2002-2012

15

.6

11

.0

21

.4

46

.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

Nevad

aU

tahC

oloradoIda

hoV

irginiaA

rizonaF

lorida

Geo

rgiaN

ew H

ampshire

New

Me

xicoN

orth Caro

lina

Te

xasC

aliforniaM

aryland

Kentu

ckyM

ontana

Mississippi

Arkan

sasU

nited S

tatesT

ennesse

eH

awaii

Minn

esotaW

ashington

Wisconsin

South

Dakota

Verm

ontO

klahom

aR

hode Islan

dD

elaware

Alabam

aN

ew Jersey

Missou

riW

yoming

Iowa

South

Carolina

Ma

ine

Indiana

Ohio

Ore

gonN

ebraskaLo

uisianaM

ichigan

IllinoisA

laskaN

ew Y

orkC

onnecticut

North D

akotaP

ennsylvania

Kansas

West V

irginia

Note: Some college, Associate, Bachelor’s and higher.

Source: ACINet, Career InfoNet

Page 56: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5656

Development Report Card for the States, 2007—Nebraska

Source: Development Report Card for the States,Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED)

STRENGTHS (Top 10 Rank)

Rank Measure1 Air Pollution3 Affordable Urban Housing4 Change in Income from Dividends,

Interest and Rent5 Health Professional Shortage Areas6 High School Attainment6 Energy Costs7 Unemployment Rate8 Change in Private Research & Dev.8 Academic Research and Development8 Change in Health Prof. Shortage Areas9 Infant Mortality10 Income Distribution10 Uninsured Low-Income Children

Employment C

Earnings and Job Quality C

Equity A

Quality of Life B

Resource Efficiency C

Competitiveness/Existing Businesses B

Entrepreneurial Energy C

Human Resources B

Financial Resources C

Infrastructure Resources C

Amenity Resources and Natural Capital A

Innovation Assets D

Performance

Business Vitality

Development

Capacity

B

C

B

44 Federal Research and Development 47 Employment Growth: Short Term 47 Venture Capital Investments 49 Change in Toxic Release Inventory 50 PhD Scientists and Engineers

WEAKNESSES (Bottom 10 Rank)

Rank Measure

Page 57: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5757

Overall State Scores on Measures of Innovation Assets

31

9

44

0

39

0

100

200

300

400

500

Massa

chu

setts

Califo

rniaR

hode

Island

Maryla

nd

Uta

hC

onne

cticut

Colora

do

New

Ham

psh

ireW

ash

ingto

nM

inne

sota

New

Me

xicoN

ew Y

orkD

elaware

Virg

inia

Pen

nsylvania

New

Jersey

Michig

an

Arizon

aV

ermo

nt

Ohio

North C

aro

lina

Ore

gon

Wisco

nsinIo

wa

Illinois

Texas

Mon

tana

Geo

rgia

North D

ako

taId

aho

Haw

aii

Kan

sas

Ala

bam

aM

aineA

laska

Wyo

min

gF

lorida

Indian

aM

issouri

Neb

raska

Ten

nessee

Oklah

oma

Sou

th C

arolina

We

st Virginia

Ken

tucky

Lou

isiana

Nevad

aS

outh

Dakota

Arkan

sas

Mississipp

i

Note: Score is calculated as sum of rankings on ten separate subindex scores.

Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED

Page 58: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5858

Science and Engineering Degrees as a Share of Higher Education Degrees Conferred by State, 2004-05

31.7

26.3

37.8

20.4

0

10

20

30

40

Sou

th Dako

taN

orth D

akotaM

aineM

arylandN

ebra

skaT

exasW

est Virginia

Louisiana

Alaska

Ken

tuckyW

isconsin

Virg

iniaM

ontana

Co

loradoIndian

aP

ennsylvania

Ne

w M

exicoN

orth C

arolinaT

ennessee

Ohio

Mississippi

Wyom

ingIdahoO

klahoma

Michigan

Arkansas

Alabam

aU

nited S

tatesS

outh C

arolinaM

innesota

IllinoisK

ansas

Georgia

Iowa

De

laware

Massachusetts

Utah

Ne

w Jerse

yO

regon

Missouri

Ca

liforniaN

ew

Ham

pshireA

rizona

Co

nnecticutW

ashington

Ha

waii

Florida

Ne

vadaN

ew

York

Verm

ontR

hode Island

Note: Science and Engineering include Agricultural Sciences, Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Physical Sciences, Science Tech, Health Sciences, Computer Science, Mathematics and Statistics, Engineering, and Engineering Tech.Degrees include Associate, Bachelor’s, Masters and Doctorate Degrees.

Source: NCES, IPEDS 2005 Completions File; c2005_a Final Release Data File

Page 59: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

5959

Number of Doctorates per 1,000 Workers—Science and Engineering, 2004

1.2

9.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ne

w M

exicoM

assachusettsM

arylandN

orth D

akotaD

elaw

areR

hode Island

Co

nnecticutV

ermont

Virg

iniaC

alifornia

Co

loradoW

ashington

Ha

waii

Ne

w Y

orkN

ew

Jersey

Pen

nsylvaniaO

regon

No

rth Carolina

Minneso

taM

ontana

Ne

w H

ampshire

Utah

IllinoisIdahoO

hioA

laskaM

ichiganT

ennessee

Maine

Texas

Indiana

Missouri

Iowa

Arizo

naK

ansas

Georgia

Oklahom

aW

isconsin

Alabam

aLouisian

aS

outh C

arolinaW

est Virginia

Ken

tuckyS

outh D

akota

Mississippi

Wyom

ingA

rkansasF

loridaN

evada

Ne

braska

Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED

Page 60: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6060

Nebraska Rank—Federal Research and Expenditures, 2005

Source: National Science Foundation

36th

39th

34th

34th

44th

42nd

01020304050

Engineering

Physical Science

Computer/Math Science

Life Science

Medical Science

Total 141,899

25,418

101,555

6,137

6,499

12,237

(Values in Thousands of $)

Page 61: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6161

Dollar Value of SBIR Grants Per Worker, 2004

Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED

6.0

0.2

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

Massachusetts

Maryland

Ne

w H

ampshire

Co

loradoV

irginia

Ne

w M

exicoH

aw

aiiC

alifornia

De

laware

Co

nnecticutR

hode Island

Washingto

nA

labama

Monta

naV

ermont

Ne

w Jerse

yM

aineO

regon

Ohio

Pen

nsylvaniaN

ew

York

West V

irginiaA

rizona

Utah

Ne

vadaT

exasW

yoming

Minneso

taM

ichiganO

klahoma

Wiscon

sinN

orth C

arolinaN

ebra

skaIdahoF

loridaN

orth D

akotaG

eorgiaA

rkansasIllinoisIndian

aK

entucky

Kan

sasM

issouriT

ennessee

Sou

th Carolina

Mississippi

Iowa

Louisiana

Sou

th Dako

taA

laska

81.8

Page 62: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6262

Gross License Income Per Worker, 2004

Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED

2.5

0.0

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

Massa

chu

setts

New

York

Arizon

aM

inne

sota

Wisco

nsinC

alifornia

Uta

hW

ash

ingto

nM

ichiga

nIo

wa

Florid

aN

orth Ca

rolin

aG

eorg

iaL

ouisian

aM

issouri

Rho

de Isla

ndP

ennsylva

niaT

enne

sseeT

exasIn

diana

Ohio

North D

ako

taM

arylan

dV

irgin

iaN

ebra

skaO

rego

nIllin

oisK

ansa

sO

klahom

aC

olorad

oA

laba

ma

New

Ham

psh

ireS

outh

Caro

linaN

ew Jerse

yH

awa

iiD

elaware

Arkan

sas

Con

necticu

tK

entu

ckyM

ississippi

Maine

Verm

on

tN

ew M

exico

Mon

tana

Idah

oN

evada

Ala

skaS

outh

Dakota

We

st Virginia

Wyo

min

g

46.5

Page 63: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6363

Number of Patents Issued Per $1,000 Gross State Product

Source: 2004/2005 Economic Vision 2010 Report Card, Indiana Chamber

3.9

9.1

1.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

IdahoV

ermont

Minneso

taC

alifornia

Oreg

onN

ew

Ham

pshireM

assachusettsC

olorado

Michigan

Wiscon

sinC

onnecticut

Washingto

nN

ew

Jersey

Ohio

Utah

Arizo

naU

nited S

tatesD

elaw

areIndian

aP

ennsylvania

Rh

ode IslandT

exasIllinoisN

ew

York

Maryland

No

rth Carolina

Iowa

Ne

w M

exicoO

klahoma

Florida

Kan

sasS

outh C

arolinaG

eorgiaT

ennessee

Ne

vadaM

issouriM

ontana

Virg

iniaM

aineN

ebra

skaK

entucky

No

rth Dakota

Wyom

ingA

labama

Sou

th Dako

taW

est Virginia

Louisiana

Arkansas

Mississippi

Ha

waii

Alaska

45.8

Page 64: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6464

Venture Capital—Financing Per $1,000 Gross State Product, 2003

Source: 2004/2005 Economic Vision 2010 Report Card, Indiana Chamber

0.0

1.7

0.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Massachusetts

Ca

liforniaC

olorado

Ne

w H

ampshire

Ne

w Jerse

yIdahoW

ashington

Un

ited States

Maryland

Texas

Co

nnecticutU

tahP

ennsylvania

No

rth Carolina

Virg

iniaR

hode Island

Georgia

Minneso

taO

regon

Ne

w Y

orkN

orth D

akotaIllinoisM

issouriO

klahoma

Florida

West V

irginiaN

evada

Arizo

naS

outh C

arolinaT

ennessee

Maine

Ha

waii

Michigan

Verm

ontO

hioW

isconsin

Alabam

aLouisian

aS

outh D

akota

Indiana

Ne

w M

exicoK

entucky

Iowa

Kan

sasA

rkansasM

ississippiN

ebra

skaM

ontana

De

laware

Alaska

Wyom

ing

8.3

Page 65: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6565

The Financial Environment

Page 66: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6666

Relationship Between Personal Income and Tax Revenues, 2003

AK

AZ

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

INIA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PARI

SC

SD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UT

WV

WI

WY

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

$45,000

$2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Personal Income

Per Capita

Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita

Correlation = 0.84

Page 67: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6767

State Tax Capacity and Effort—Nebraska Indexed to U.S. Average

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

GA HI

IL

IN IAKS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

WV

WI

WY

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

Sta

te T

ax C

apacity

(Tota

l Taxable

Reso

urce

s Per C

apita

)

State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate)

US

Page 68: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6868

State Tax Capacity and Effort—Nebraska Indexed to U.S. Average

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate)

Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita)

U.S. Average

Page 69: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

6969

Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2013

Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005

-0.5 -1

.0

-1.0 -1

.6 -2.1

-2.3 -2

.8

-2.9

-3.0 -3

.3 -3.8

-3.9 -4

.2

-4.2

-4.3

-4.3

-4.4

-4.4 -4

.8

-4.8

-4.8 -5

.1

-5.2

-5.2

-5.3 -5

.6

-5.6

-5.7

-5.7

-5.7

-5.8

-5.8

-5.9 -6

.2

-6.3

-6.5

-6.7

-6.8

-6.9

-7.0

-7.0 -7

.4 -8.0

-8.2

-8.9 -9

.3

-9.3 -9

.8

-10

.5

-10

.7

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

UtahM

ontana

New Hampshire

DelawareNew Jersey

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

WisconsinVerm

ontO

hioNorth Dakota

ConnecticutKansas

ArkansasVirginia

Nebraska

Oklahom

aM

innesotaColorado

West Virginia

KentuckyM

ichiganArizona

New YorkG

eorgiaHawaiiIllinois

PennsylvaniaAlaska

Rhode IslandU

nited States

New Mexico

CaliforniaIowa

IndianaNorth Carolina

FloridaIdaho

South CarolinaSouth Dakota

Missouri

Washington

OregonTexas

NevadaTennesseeM

ississippiLouisianaAlabam

a

Page 70: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

7070

State Systems of

Higher Education

Page 71: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

7171

Bachelor’s Degrees as a Percent of High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2003

NH

20

40

60

80

100

$5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

GA

HI

IL

INIAKS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OHOK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

UTVT

VA

WA

WIUS

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NM

TN

TX

WV

WY

Total Funding Per FTE

Pe

rform

an

ce

Page 72: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

7272

Undergraduate Credentials Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2002-03

10

15

20

25

30

$5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO CTDE

GA

HI

IL

IN

IAKS

KYLA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NV

NJ

NCND

OHOK

OR

PA

RI

SD

UT VT

VA

WA

WI

US

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

NY

SC

TN

TX

WV

WY

Total Funding Per FTE

Pe

rform

an

ce

NE

Page 73: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

7373

Federal and Industry R&D Per Capita, 2002

$5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000

50

100

150

200

250

Total Funding Per FTE

Pe

rform

an

ce

0

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

DEGA

HI

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MA

MS

MT

NE

NV NJ

NYNC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA

SC

SD

UT VT

VA

WA

WIUS

CT

FLID

MI

MN

MO

NHNM

RI

TN

TX

WV

WY

MD ($273, $12,527)

Page 74: Higher Education and the Future of Nebraska Dennis P. Jones Lincoln, Nebraska December 5, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.

7474

For more information, contact Dennis Jones

[email protected]

and visit the

National Information Center forHigher Education Policymaking and Analysis

www.higheredinfo.org