Higher Education and the Future of Hawaii Presented to the The Senate Education Committee, and The House Higher Education Committee Honolulu, Hawaii March 12, 2007 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251
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Higher Education and the Future of Hawaii
Presented to the
The Senate Education Committee, andThe House Higher Education Committee
Honolulu, Hawaii
March 12, 2007
National Center for Higher Education Management SystemsNational Center for Higher Education Management Systems3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251
2
Core Problems Facing Hawaii
¦ Per Capita Income Declining vis-à-vis the Rest of the Country (and Highly Variable Across the State)
¦ Heavily Dependent on Service (Especially Visitor) Industry and Government Employment
¦ Relatively Low Wage Structure (and High Cost of Living)
¦ Aging Workforce
¦ Very Low Unemployment and Workforce Shortages in Key Areas—Coupled with Underemployment
3
Declining Per Capita Personal Income in Hawaii as a Percent of U.S. Average—1960-2005
99.995.1
102.5
113.0113.1
124.4
79.4
81.9
75.6
91.490.599.5
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Actual PCPI Adjusted
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis
4
Per Capita Personal Income, 1999
Hawaii = $21,525Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
$26,473 to $38,483$21,759 to $26,473$16,483 to $21,759$13,756 to $16,483$8,704 to $13,756
Not Determined
5
Percent of Total Gross State Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S.
22.1
27.9
21.1
3.1
6.6
7.9
3.52.3
4.5
0.0
1.0
22.6
29.2
21.4
3.0
5.4
7.4
3.5
1.9
5.0
0.0
0.6
11.9
25.2
20.8
4.7
5.0
6.85.9
12.8
4.6
1.31.0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Agriculture,Forestry &
Fishing
Mining Construction Manufacturing WholesaleTrade
Retail Trade Transp.,Warehousing
& Utilities
Information Finance,Insurance,Real Est.
Services Government
Hawaii 1997
Hawaii 2004
U.S. 2004
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.doc.gov
6
Median Earnings by Education Level for Population Age 18-64, 2005
Building Cleaning & Pest ControlFirst-Line Enlisted Military Supervisor/Managers
Agricultural WorkersOther Military Occupations
Social Scientists & Related WorkersOther Protective Service Workers
20
Projections of High School Graduates to 2018 By Race/Ethnicity—Hawaii
Source: WICHE Projections of High School Graduates
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Asian/Pacific Islander (7,534 to 7,516) White (1,917 to 1,125)Hispanic (441 to 413) Black (177 to 126)American Indian/Alaskan Native (33 to 48)
21
Summary—The Good News
¦ Relatively Well Educated Workforce in Full Range of Current Employment—Underemployment??
¦ Relative High Salaries at All Levels of Education (but not When Adjusted for Cost of Living)
¦ There Are Jobs (of Some Sort) for Those Seeking Employment
¦ Many States Have Worse Problems than Hawaii
22
Summary—The Bad News
¦ Losing Ground RAPIDLY in Education Attainment
¦ Not Producing Enough Graduates to Replenish Retiring Workforce
¦ Hawaii Compares Unfavorably to Global Competitors
23
A Conclusion
¦ Workforce Development
¦ Workplace Development
In Order for the Economic Circumstances of Hawaii and its Citizens to Be Sustained and Improved, the State Must Simultaneously Address the Twin Challenge of:
And It Must Effectively Engage the Higher Education System in This Process
24
Workforce Development—The Education Pipeline
25
Key Transition Points in the Education Pipeline
¦ Complete High School
¦ Enter College
¦ Finish College
¦ Enter the Workplace
26
Student Pipeline—Hawaii, 2004
91
57
42
28
70
39
27
18
65
33
21
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
Graduate fromHigh School
Enter College Still EnrolledSophomore Year
Graduate Within150% Time
Best Performing State U.S. Average Hawaii
Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…
Source: NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2004 Residence and Migration Survey, NCEC IPEDS 2004 Fall Enrollment Survey and Graduation Rate Survey
27
High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2004
64.9
69.7
50.7
91.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
New
JerseyUtah
North D
akotaIow
aN
ebraskaM
innesotaVerm
ontSouth D
akotaIdahoM
ontanaPennsylvaniaW
isconsinM
aineM
issouriKansas
Ohio
Connecticut
New
Ham
pshireIllinoisArkansas
Wyom
ingM
assachusettsO
klahoma
Maryland
Colorado
Virgin
iaW
est Virginia
Oregon
Rhode Island
California
Washington
IndianaUnited S
tatesM
ichiganLouisianaTexasD
elaware
Haw
aiiKentucky
Arizona
North C
arolinaTennesseeAlaska
New
YorkNew
Mexico
Alabam
aM
ississippiFloridaG
eorgiaSouth C
arolinaNevada
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity (rev. 071106)
2828
29
Fall 2006 Recent High School Graduates COMPASS Test Takers
13.229.9
53.240.6
31.8
28.146.2 38.3
18.7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Reading Writing Math
Basic Skills Develomental Transfer
University of Hawaii Community Colleges—
30
College Going Rates—First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2004
55.7 51.6
43.4
68.8
0
25
50
75
South D
akotaNew
YorkNorth D
akotaSouth C
arolinaM
innesotaN
orth Carolina
Georgia
Massachusetts
New
JerseyTennesseeIow
aNew
Mexico
Kansas
Connecticut
Alabam
aM
ississippiNebraska
IndianaW
yoming
PennsylvaniaM
ichiganM
arylandW
isconsinColorado
Montana
Virginia
Kentucky
Arkansas
United S
tatesRhode Island
New
Ham
pshireIllinoisN
evadaLouisianaD
elaware
FloridaW
est Virginia
Oklahom
aM
issouriO
hioTexasHaw
aiiM
aineArizona
IdahoO
regonAlaska
Californ
iaUtah
Verm
ontW
ashington
Source: NCES; Common Core Data, Private High Schools Survey, Fall Residency and Migration Survey
31
College Participation Rates by State for Students from Low-Income Families, 2005 (Percent)
19.9
25.4
41.3
8.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
Iowa
Nebraska
New
Ham
pshireNew
YorkNew
JerseyVerm
ontM
aineM
assachusettsM
innesotaPennsylvaniaN
orth Dakota
Montana
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
IndianaKansas
South D
akotaM
arylandRhode Island
North C
arolinaO
regonConnecticut
Missouri
IllinoisUnited S
tatesVirgin
iaColorado
IdahoArkansas
FloridaM
ississippiSouth C
arolinaAlabam
aW
ashingtonCalifornia
West V
irginiaNew
Mexico
Kentucky
TexasTennesseeO
klahoma
Georgia
Delaw
areH
awaii
Utah
Wyom
ingLouisianaArizona
Nevada
Alaska
Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2007
32
Percent of First-Time Freshmen Who Attend College Within Their Reported State of Residence, Fall 2002
84.7
69.6
46.8
94.0
0
25
50
75
100
Mississippi
Utah
Californ
iaN
orth Carolina
TexasLouisianaArizona
Michigan
Alabam
aFloridaO
klahoma
South C
arolinaIow
aKentucky
IndianaArkansas
Kansas
Georgia
Ohio
PennsylvaniaW
isconsinUnited S
tatesM
issouriNebraska
West V
irginiaColorado
TennesseeNew
YorkM
innesotaO
regonNevada
IllinoisNew
Mexico
Washington
Virgin
iaIdahoSouth D
akotaM
ontanaD
elaware
Massachusetts
North D
akotaW
yoming
Haw
aiiM
arylandRhode Island
Maine
New
JerseyConnecticut
Alaska
New
Ham
pshireVerm
ont
Source: NCES, IPEDS Fall 2002 Residency and Migration File
33
Associate Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2004
28.9
23.4
12.6
47.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
FloridaW
yoming
Washington
Rhode Island
New
YorkIow
aM
ississippiUtah
Haw
aiiArizona
North C
arolinaCalifornia
South D
akotaO
regonKansas
Colorado
Minnesota
New
Ham
pshireUnited S
tatesNorth D
akotaIllinoisSouth C
arolinaO
klahoma
New
Mexico
Kentucky
IndianaAlabam
aM
ichiganNevada
Missouri
Nebraska
IdahoVirginia
PennsylvaniaO
hioM
assachusettsG
eorgiaTennesseeW
est Virginia
Wisconsin
TexasArkansas
Verm
ontNew
JerseyM
ontanaM
arylandM
aineD
elaware
Alaska
Connecticut
Louisiana
Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions Survey, WICHE
34
Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2004
45.4
51.8
97.4
21.2
0
25
50
75
100
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Delaw
areColorado
New
YorkArizona
New
Ham
pshireNorth C
arolinaU
tahVerm
ontFloridaPennsylvaniaM
issouriNorth D
akotaIndianaO
regonIow
aKansas
Georgia
Nebraska
Michigan
Virginia
TennesseeUnited S
tatesConnecticut
Wisconsin
Maryland
Montana
Alabam
aO
klahoma
South D
akotaW
ashingtonM
innesotaO
hioLouisianaSouth C
arolinaIllinoisCalifornia
Haw
aiiM
aineW
est Virginia
Kentucky
Mississippi
TexasNevada
New
Mexico
New
JerseyArkansas
IdahoW
yoming
Alaska
Source: NCES Common Core Data, IPEDS Completion Survey
35
Workplace Development—What Can Be Expected of the Higher Education System?
¦ R&D that Leads to Expanded High-Wage Employment> At the University
> In Spin-Off Companies
¦ Entrepreneurial Training—and the Modeling of Entrepreneurial Behaviors
¦ Rapid Response Training for Employers Seeking to Fill Living-Wage Jobs
36
The Bottom Line
¦ Enhance the State’s Stock of Human Capital
> Improved Competencies of High School Graduates
> Increased Skills of Adults with Less than a High School Education
> Improve Participation and Graduation Rates of College Students
(continued)
37
The Bottom Line (continued)
¦ Provide Skilled Workers in Critical Need Areas
> Nursing/Allied Health
> Teachers
> Science/Industrial Technologies
¦ Help to Expand and Diversify the State’s Economy
> Technology Transfer
> Rapid Response to Employer’s Training Needs
38
Address These Issues
as Appropriate in
All Parts of the State
39
Relative Need for Postsecondary Education/Training by Region
VH = Very High H = High M = Medium L = Low
Population Growth (Numbers) H M VH L L L M M H M
Population Growth (Percent) L L VH L L L M M H M
Projected HS Graduates (Average %) M M VH H L L L H L L
Income L M H VH VH M VH M M H
Workforce Participation (%) H H M H VH H H L L M
Education Attainment (<HS Diploma) L M M H L L H VH H H
Education Attainment (HS Diploma) L L M VH H M M M M M
Education Attainment (Bachelor’s) L L M VH H L M M M M
¦ Better Align K-12 Learning Outcomes and Assessment with Higher Education Expectations—Ensure Students Leave High School Prepared for Further Education and for Work
¦ Significantly Increase Numbers of Adults Acquiring Workplace Literacy Skills
¦ Provide Higher Education Access in Areas of Greatest Need
> Waianae
> ’Ewa
¦ Improve Student Retention
(continued)
41
Key Short-Term Initiatives (continued)
¦ Expand Degree Production in Key Areas
> Nursing/Health Sciences
> Teacher Education
> Computer Science (Oriented to Engineering Applications)
> Science/Industrial Technologies
¦ Create and Sustain a Rapid Response Capability
¦ Enhance Educational Programs and Support Systems for Entrepreneurs
¦ Promote Technology Transfer
42
The Policy Environment
¦ Formally Adopt a Set of Goals that Is Agreed to by Executive and Legislative Branches and UHS—a Compact
¦ Develop an Agreed-Upon Set of Accountability Measures by Which Progress Toward Goal Achievement Can Be Monitored
Create a Policy Environment that Encourages Pursuit of These
Initiatives—Realizing that the Policy Environment You Have
Yields the Results You’re Getting.
(continued)
43
The Policy Environment (continued)
¦ Create New Funding Relationship Between the State and UHS
> Eliminate Line Items (focus on What to do, not How to do)
> Calibrate Funding Against External Benchmarks
> Align Investment Funds Explicitly with Items Identified in the “Compact”
¦ Conduct a More Detailed “Policy Audit” to Identify Policies/Procedures that Create Barriers to Pursuit of the Agreed-Upon Public Agenda
44
An Action Agenda
¦ Join with Legislature and UHS in Developing and Ratifying a Compact and Associated Accountability Measures
¦ Promulgate the List of Priorities to All Appropriate Executive Branch Agencies—Use the Bully Pulpit
¦ Support K-20 Initiatives Focused on Alignment
¦ Establish a Policy Leadership Focus for Adult/Workplace LiteracyEducation
¦ Submit a Higher Education Budget Aligned with Priorities
Accomplishment of the Objectives Identified Will Require Action on the Part of All Parties.
(continued)
Executive Branch
45
An Action Agenda (continued)
¦ Join with Executive Branch and UHS in Developing and Ratifying a Compact and Associated Accountability Measures
¦ Develop a New Approach to Allocation of Resources to UHS> Allocation Based on Core Funding and Investment in
Priorities> Autonomy with Accountability
¦ Establish Expectations Concerning Delivery of:> Long-Range Financing Plan for Higher Education> A Policy Audit
(continued)
Legislative Branch
46
An Action Agenda (continued)
¦ Join with Executive and Legislative Branches in Developing and Ratifying a Compact and Associated Accountability Measures
¦ Pursue the Priority Items Identified
¦ Take the Leadership in Proposing a Long-Range Financing Plan for Higher Education for Submission to Executive and Legislative Branches
¦ Take the Leadership in Conducting a Policy Audit
(continued)
UHS
47
An Action Agenda (continued)
¦ “Pull” Improvements in Education Attainment/Learning
> Require Employees Lacking Basic Skills to Engage in Workplace Literacy Training
> Screen New Employees for Requisite Skills
> Require High School Students Who Are Employed to Take a Rigorous (SSI) Curriculum and Make Satisfactory Academic Progress as a Condition of Employment
¦ Support a Publicly Funded Venture Capital Fund
¦ Support the Public Agenda—Push Government and Education Leaders to Adopt and Sustain the Recommendations Made for Their Action
Private Sector
48
NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF
STATE LEGISLATURES
A Framework for Higher Education Reform
Recommendations of the NCSL Blue Ribbon Commission on Higher Education
49
Legislator Roles and Responsibilities
¦ Budgets and Appropriations
¦ Goals and Expectations for Higher Education
¦ Higher Education as a Legislative Priority
¦ Legislative Leadership
50
Recommendations
¦ Define Clear State Goals—A Public Agenda for Higher Education
¦ Identify Your State Strengths and Weaknesses
¦ Know Your Demographic Trends for Next 10-30 Years
¦ Identify a Place to Sustain the Public Agenda
¦ Hold Institutions Accountable
(continued)
51
Recommendations (continued)
¦ Rethink Funding> Link Appropriations, Tuition and Financial Aid Policy> Be Results/Performance Oriented in Funding> Focus on Productivity
¦ Recommit to Affordability> Help Reduce Borrowing and Debt> Rethink Student Aid