Higher Education and the Future of Arkansas Presented to the Task Force on Higher Education Remediation, Retention and Graduation Rates Little Rock, Arkansas October 8, 2007 National Center for Higher Education National Center for Higher Education Management Systems Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251
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Higher Education and the Future of Arkansas
Presented to the
Task Force on Higher Education Remediation, Retention and Graduation Rates
Little Rock, Arkansas
October 8, 2007
National Center for Higher Education Management SystemsNational Center for Higher Education Management Systems3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301-2251
22
Why Focus on Higher Education?
33
Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Personal Income by State, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Per C
apita Inco
me
Percent with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher14.8 33.2
15,853
28,766
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FLGA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MDMA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
TNTX
UT
VT
VA
WV
WI
WY
14.8
15,853
28,766
AL
AK
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
GAHI
IL
IN KS
KY
LA
MDMA
MS
MO
MT
NV
NH
NJ
NM
OH
OK
OR
RI
SCTN
UT
VT
VA
WV
WY
WA
44
Relationship Between Educational Attainment and Health, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; United Health Foundation
-30
-15
0
15
30
10% 20% 30% 40%-
-
-
-
-
-
NC
AL
AKAZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
GA
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
ND
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
US
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
NM
TN
TX
WV
WI
WY
AL
AZ CA
CO
CT
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
OH
OR
RI
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
TX
WV
WI
WY
AL
AZ CA
CO
CT
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
OH
OR
RI
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
TX
WV
WI
WY
-30
-15
0
15
30
10% 20% 30% 40%-
-
-
-
-
-
NC
AL
AKAZ CA
CO
CT
DE
GA
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
NM
TN
TX
WV
WI
WY
AL
AZ CA
CO
CT
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
OH
OR
RI
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
TX
WV
WI
WY
AL
AZ CA
CO
CT
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
OH
OR
RI
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
TX
WV
WI
WY
NC
AL
AKAZ CA
CO
CT
DE
GA
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
NM
TN
TX
WV
WI
WY
AL
AZ CA
CO
CT
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
OH
OR
RI
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
TX
WV
WI
WY
AL
AZ CA
CO
CT
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
OH
OR
RI
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
TX
WV
WI
WY
Percent of Adults 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
State Health Index—United Health Foundation
55
Relationship Between Personal Income and Tax Revenues, 2003
AK
AZ
AR
DE
GA
HI
IL
INIA
KS
LA
ME
MD
MA
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PARI
SC
SD
VT
VA
WA
US
AL
CA
CO
CT
FL
IDKY
MI
MN
MS
MO
NH
NM
TNTX
UT
WV
WI
WY
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
$45,000
$2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Personal Income
Per Capita
Actual Tax Revenues Per Capita
Correlation = 0.84
66
Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average—Arkansas, 1960-2005
65.3
69.2
75.6 74.476.3
74.2
78.3
73.5
77.2
61.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
77
Per Capita Personal Income, 2004
Arkansas = $25,814Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Carroll
Prairie
Monroe
Phillips
ArkansasJefferson
Grant
Pulaski
Saline
Conway
Faulkner WoodruffCrittenden
Jackson
Independence
CleburneVan Buren
Stone
Izard SharpLawrence
Craighead
Mississippi
RandolphBaxter
Marion
Madison
Johnson
Yell
Garland
Montgomery
Pike
Dallas ClevelandLincoln Desha
Chicot
Bradley
Union
Calhoun
Ouachita
Nevada
Columbia
Lafayette
Miller
Hempstead
Howard
Little River
Sevier
Sebastian
FranklinCrawford
Washington
Benton
Newton
Ashley
Boone
Clark
Clay
Cross
Drew
Fulton
Greene
Hot Spring
Lee
Logan
Lonoke
Perry
Poinsett
Polk
Pope
Scott
Searcy
St. Francis
White
24,990 to 35,26423,141 to 24,99022,221 to 23,14120,851 to 22,22117,618 to 20,851
88
The Workforce
99
Projected Change in Arkansas Population By Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2006-25
Source: Arkansas Department of Economic Security and Commerce
-24
,73
3
-17
,62
0
-32
,13
7
18
,07
8
-6,0
15
-2,4
35
-2,1
93
19
,64
5
33
,79
7
4,7
11
1,6
94
4,3
19
7,7
77
7,1
42
175 -41 487 4992,036
1,0
08
51
2
1,0
17
2,5
80
3,4
32
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 and Older
White African AmericanHispanic Native AmericanAsian
281,563
1010
Educational Attainment and Rank Among States—Arkansas, 2005 (Percent)
50th
48th
49th
42nd
32nd
0102030405060
Age 25-64 withGraduate/Prof. Degree
Age 25-64 withBachelor's or Higher
Age 25-64 withAssociate Degree
Age 25-64 with HSDiploma
Age 18-24 with HSDiploma
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS)
80.3%
6.5%
84.9%
6.2%
20.3%
1111
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults—U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004
Source: Education at a Glance 2006, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
0
20
40
60
Canada
JapanK
oreaS
weden
Belgium
IrelandN
orway
United S
tates S
painF
rance F
inlandA
ustralia D
enmark
United K
ingdomN
etherlandsIcelandLuxem
bourg S
witzerland
New
Zealand
Greece
Poland
Germ
anyA
ustriaM
exicoH
ungary P
ortugal Italy S
lovak Republic
Czech R
epublic T
urkey
Age 25-34
Age 45-54
1212
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults—U.S., 2005
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2005
20
30
40
50
60
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New
York
North D
akotaN
ew Jersey
New
Ham
pshireC
onnecticutN
ebraskaC
oloradoM
arylandV
irginiaS
outh Dakota
Iowa
Verm
ontR
hode IslandP
ennsylvaniaIllinoisW
isconsinW
ashingtonK
ansasU
tahU
nited States
Delaw
areM
ontanaH
awaii
Michigan
Georgia
North C
arolinaM
aineO
hioC
aliforniaF
loridaO
regonM
issouriIndianaM
ississippiS
outh Carolina
Wyom
ingA
labama
Arizona
Alaska
Tennessee
Kentucky
Oklahom
aT
exasIdahoW
est Virginia
LouisianaN
ew M
exicoA
rkansasN
evada
Age 25-34
Age 45-54
1313
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group—Arkansas, the U.S. and Leading OECD Countries
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2006; U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2005
53.3
51.6 49.1
42.3
40.7
40.4
39.2
39.0
27.0
47.0 45.1
33.5
35.7 32.3 28.9
34.1
39.4
28.1
41.4
32.7
16.4
32.9
25.2 21.5
29.4
40.7
25.8
34.5
19.2
9.7
27.3
20.0 15.7
23.2
36.2
23.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway UnitedStates
Arkansas
Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64
1414
The Goal: Arkansas Reaching International Competitiveness by 2025
55% of Population
Age 25-64 with
College Degrees
1515
165,854
-7,798
-50,000
50,000
150,000
250,000
350,000
450,000
550,000
650,000
California
Te
xasF
lorida
Ohio
Geo
rgiaM
ichigan
Pennsylva
niaT
ennesse
eN
orth Caro
lina
Indiana
IllinoisA
rizonaLo
uisianaM
issouri
Kentu
ckyA
labama
New
York
South
Carolina
Oklah
oma
Nevad
aA
rkansas
Washing
tonM
ississippiW
isconsinO
regon
Virginia
West V
irginia
New
Me
xicoN
ew Jersey
Utah
Ma
rylandK
ansasC
oloradoIow
aIda
hoM
ain
eM
innesota
Conn
ecticutH
awaii
Mo
ntanaN
ebraskaD
elaware
Alaska
Wyom
ingR
hode Islan
dN
ew H
ampshire
South
Dakota
Verm
ontN
orth Dakota
Ma
ssachusetts
1,175,054
1,318,974
Additional Degrees (Associate and Above) Needed in Adult Population Age 25-44 to Meet Top Country Performance*
* In Canada, 50.13% of adults age 25-44 have college degrees (Associate and above).
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS; OECD
1616
Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%)– Arkansas
835,336
202,622
632,714
309,266
16,592
306,856
15,343
111.1%
Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing Countries (55%)
Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have Degrees
Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025)
Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production
Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration
Additional Degrees Needed
Additional Degrees Needed per Year (Currently Produce 16,357 in All Sectors)
Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor’s Degree Production Needed (in Public Sector Only)
1717
Collective Cost to Arkansas, Assuming Tuition Stays the Same
$ 682 Million =Annual Costs of Additional Students at Current $ per Student
$ 862 Million =Current State Contribution
79.1% =Percent Increase in Annual State Support Needed
1818
Average Cost to Students, Assuming No Additional State Investment
$ 3,985 =Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public Four-Year Institutions
117% Increase in Tuition and Fees(Currently $ 3,421)
$ 2,683 =Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public Two-Year Institutions
217% Increase in Tuition and Fees(Currently $ 1,237)
1919
Educational Attainment in Arkansas (Percent)
33.7 34.8
55.0
26.5
0
20
40
60
Current Percentage ofAdults Age 25-64 with
College Degrees, 2005
Projected Percentage in2025 with Current Annual
Degree Production
Projected Percentage in2025 with Current AnnualDegree Production and
Net Migration
Percentage Needed toReach Best-Performing
Countries by 2025
Current, In 2025 with Current Degree Production, and Best-Performing Countries in 2025
2020
How Can Arkansas Reach International Competitiveness?
Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration, and Best Performance* on the Student Transition and Completion Measures
Sales Representatives, Wholesale & ManufacturingOther Sales & Related Workers
Food ProcessingLawyers, Judges, & Related Workers
Postsecondary TeachersTop Executives
Health Technologists & TechniciansOther Management Occupations
5252
Arkansas Occupations with High Net Imports and Exports, 1995-2000—Residents Age 30-64 with College Degrees
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files
-245
-179
-106
-94
-90
-81
-70
-60
-54
237
250
260
284
398
494
588
611
680
1,318
-150
-1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500
Lawyers, Judges, & Related WorkersSupervisors, Production WorkersSecretaries & Administrative AssistantsSupervisors of Installation, Maintenance, & Repair WorkersBusiness Operations SpecialistsOther Healthcare Support OccupationsArt & DesignOther Military OccupationsFood ProcessingBuilding Cleaning & Pest Control
EngineersMotor Vehicle Operators
Religious WorkersComputer Specialists
Life ScientistsPrimary, Secondary, & Special Education Teachers
Other Management OccupationsPostsecondary Teachers
Percent of Total Gross State Product by Industry and Comparison to U.S.
1.0
4.5 3.7
25.3
12.0
5.8
9.7
10.9
14.0
13.1
4.7
0.9
4.2
19.6
6.9 6.5
7.2
13.3
23.9
12.9
1.2
1.5
4.7
12.2
4.9
6.0
6.8
20.7
30.0
12.0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Agriculture,Forestry and
Fishing
Mining Construction Manufacturing Transportationand Public
Utilities
WholesaleTrade
Retail Trade Finance,Insurance and
Real Estate
Services Government
Arkansas 1990
Arkansas 2004
U.S. 2004
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, www.bea.doc.gov
5555
Employment in High-Technology Establishments as Share of Total Employment by State, 2004
3.6
2.4
9.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED)
5656
Projected Percent Change in Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Training, 2002-2012
21
.7
11
.0
21
.4
46
.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
Nevad
aU
tahC
oloradoIda
hoV
irginiaA
rizonaF
lorida
Geo
rgiaN
ew H
ampshire
New
Me
xicoN
orth Caro
lina
Te
xasC
aliforniaM
aryland
Kentu
ckyM
ontana
Mississippi
Arkan
sasU
nited S
tatesT
ennesse
eH
awaii
Minn
esotaW
ashington
Wisconsin
South
Dakota
Verm
ontO
klahom
aR
hode Islan
dD
elaware
Alabam
aN
ew Jersey
Missou
riW
yoming
Iowa
South
Carolina
Ma
ine
Indiana
Ohio
Ore
gonN
ebraskaLo
uisianaM
ichigan
IllinoisA
laskaN
ew Y
orkC
onnecticut
North D
akotaP
ennsylvania
Kansas
West V
irginia
Note: Some college, Associate, Bachelor’s and higher.
Source: ACINet, Career InfoNet
5757
How Arkansas Ranks Among Other States on Selected Measures for Education and Economic Development
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
48
48
31
44
16
36
44
36
28
22
01020304050
State New Economy Index
Personal Income per Capita
Difference in Earnings Between Bachelor's & HS Diploma
Difference in Earnings Between Associate & HS Diploma
Migration Rate of College Graduates (Age 22-64)
Overall Results on Student Pipeline(Transition & Completion Rates, 9th Grade to College Completion)
Six-Year Graduation Rates of Bachelor's Students
Three-Year Graduation Rates of Associate Students
College-Going Rates of Students Directly Out of High School
Public High School Graduation Rates
Economic Development MeasuresEducation Measures
5858
Development Report Card for the States, 2006—Arkansas
Source: Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED)
40 Per Capita Energy Consumption41 Change in Income from Dividends, Interest
and Rent41 Voting Rate41 Highway Performance41 Infant Mortality42 Venture Capital Investments43 Heart Disease43 Private Research and Development44 High School Attainment45 SBIR Grants45 Income from Dividends, Interest and Rent45 Average Annual Pay45 Disparity between Rural and Urban Areas45 Employer-Provided Health Insurance46 Teen Pregnancy46 Income Distribution46 Urban Mass Transit47 Change in Business Closings47 Academic Research and Development47 Working Poor47 PhD Scientists and Engineers48 Income Distribution Change49 College Attainment49 Grad. Students in Science and Engineering49 Patents Issued49 Households with Computers50 Change in Poverty Rate50 Poverty Rate50 Federal Research and Development
Weaknesses (Bottom 10 Rank)
Rank Measure
1 Change in Uninsured Low Income Children1 Five Year Change in New Companies4 Mass Layoffs6 Sewage Treatment Needs7 Change in Health Professional Shortage Areas7 Employment Growth: Short Term8 Recycling Rate8 Loans to Small Businesses9 Business Closings9 Change in Energy Costs10 Energy Costs
Strengths (Top 10 Rank)
Rank Measure
Employment BEarnings and Job Quality DEquity FQuality of Life DResource Efficiency C
Competitiveness of Existing Bus. BEntrepreneurial Energy B
Human Resources DFinancial Resources DInfrastructure Resources CAmenity Resources & Nat. Capital AInnovation Assets F
Performance
Business Vitality
DevelopmentCapacity
D
A
D
5959
Overall State Scores on Measures of Innovation Assets4
36
44
0
39
0
100
200
300
400
500
Massa
chu
setts
Califo
rniaR
hode
Island
Maryla
nd
Uta
hC
onne
cticut
Colora
do
New
Ham
psh
ireW
ash
ingto
nM
inne
sota
New
Me
xicoN
ew Y
orkD
elaware
Virg
inia
Pen
nsylvania
New
Jersey
Michig
an
Arizon
aV
ermo
nt
Ohio
North C
aro
lina
Ore
gon
Wisco
nsinIo
wa
Illinois
Texas
Mon
tana
Geo
rgia
North D
ako
taId
aho
Haw
aii
Kan
sas
Ala
bam
aM
aineA
laska
Wyo
min
gF
lorida
Indian
aM
issouri
Neb
raska
Ten
nessee
Oklah
oma
Sou
th C
arolina
We
st Virginia
Ken
tucky
Lou
isiana
Nevad
aS
outh
Dakota
Arkan
sas
Mississipp
i
Note: Score is calculated as sum of rankings on ten separate subindex scores.
Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED
6060
Science and Engineering Degrees as a Share of Higher Education Degrees Conferred by State, 2004-05
27.1
26.3
37.8
20.4
0
10
20
30
40
South D
akotaN
orth Dakota
Maine
Maryland
Nebraska
Texas
West V
irginiaLouisianaA
laskaK
entuckyW
isconsinV
irginiaM
ontanaC
oloradoIndianaP
ennsylvaniaN
ew M
exicoN
orth Carolina
Tennessee
Ohio
Mississippi
Wyom
ingIdahoO
klahoma
Michigan
Arkansas
Alabam
aU
nited States
South C
arolinaM
innesotaIllinoisK
ansasG
eorgiaIow
aD
elaware
Massachusetts
Utah
New
JerseyO
regonM
issouriC
aliforniaN
ew H
ampshire
Arizona
Connecticut
Washington
Haw
aiiF
loridaN
evadaN
ew Y
orkV
ermont
Rhode Island
Note:Science & Engineering = agriculture sciences, biological/biomedical sciences, physical sciences, science tech, health sciences, computer science, math & statistics, engineering, engineering tech. Degrees include associate, bachelor’s, masters and doctorate.
Source: NCES, IPEDS 2005 Completions File; c2005_a Final Release Data File
6161
Number of Doctorates per 1,000 Workers—Science and Engineering, 2004
2.2
1.2
9.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
New
Mexico
Massachusetts
Maryland
North D
akotaD
elaware
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Verm
ontV
irginiaC
aliforniaC
oloradoW
ashingtonH
awaii
New
York
New
JerseyP
ennsylvaniaO
regonN
orth Carolina
Minnesota
Montana
New
Ham
pshireU
tahIllinoisIdahoO
hioA
laskaM
ichiganT
ennesseeM
aineT
exasIndianaM
issouriIow
aA
rizonaK
ansasG
eorgiaO
klahoma
Wisconsin
Alabam
aLouisianaS
outh Carolina
West V
irginiaK
entuckyS
outh Dakota
Mississippi
Wyom
ingA
rkansasF
loridaN
evadaN
ebraska
Source: Development Report Card for the States, CFED
6262
Arkansas Rank—Federal Research and Expenditures, 2005
Source: National Science Foundation; U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates
43rd
40th
44th
37th
32nd
41st
01020304050
Engineering
Physical Science
Computer/Math Science
Life Science
Medical Science
Total 103,142
37,048
77,130
1,275
9,881
10,878
(Values in Thousands of $)
6363
Number of Patents Issued Per $1,000 Gross State Product