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Higher Education in DevelopingCountries:What Role, What Impact?
Devesh KapurUniversity of Pennsylvania
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Outline of Presentation
Overview of Tertiary Education
Why? Rising Demand
How? Supply Responses Changing Role of the State
Regulation and Standards
Access: Who gets educated? What? The Content of Higher Education
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Higher Education Landscape
Global tertiary student population:
1991 68 million
2004 132 million
2009 150 million
The global market in higher education exceeds over 3percent of the total services market
3.5 million people are employed to teach or otherwiseservice students
Global market in educational services is currently estimatedat more than $2 trillion
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Growth in global tertiary education
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 1980 2000 2010 2025 2050
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
North America
Oceania
LDCs
World
Population aged 15-24 (in millions)
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World PopulationProspects: The 2006 Revisionand World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp,
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Rapid growth of student enrolmentChina and India
Devesh Kapur, CASI
INDIA
1950/51: 27 Universities, 578 Colleges
2009: 504 Universities , 25,951 Colleges, 14
million students enrolled
CHINA
2009: 30 million students enrolled
Number of College Graduates: 98 million
Target (2020): 195 million
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Why? Rising Skill Premium
Source: Goldberg and Pavcnik, 2006
1980s 1990s
Mexico Increased Increased until mid 1990s
Stable/declined after mid1990s
Increased between 2000-1990
Colombia Slightly declined Increased
Argentina Declined Increased
Brazil Stable/Slightincrease
Increased
Chile Increased Declined early 1990s;Overall increased 1990-2000 (national data)
India Relatively stable Increased
Hong Kong Increased Increased
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Political Economy of Higher education
Limited public resources
Regulation: Failures leading to shift from Inputs to Outcomes
Supply of quality institutions is severely lagging demand
- Increasing faculty shortages especially in elite institutions,with competition from private sector
Quality: high variance and low mean
Entrenched mediocrity in most faculty Exceeding weak culture of research
Access and Equity exacerbated by failures at primary and
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Poor quality has led to diminished signaling
Centralized regulation provides fertile ground for rent-seeking and patronage politics
Higher Education is emerging as an important arena ofdistributional conflicts
These distributional conflicts have intensified as skillpremium has increased
Increase in degree inflation: Credentials without Skills
The few institutions that signal quality enjoy enormousbrand-rents
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Obstacles to reform
PATRONAGE IN PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS
INCUMBENT BENEFICIARIES
POLITICALLY CONNECTED HIGHER EDUCATIONENTREPRENEURS
ELITE FLIGHT TO OVERSEAS INSTITUTIONS
KEY ARENA FOR DISTRIBUTIONAL CONFLICTS
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How? Supply Responses
Changing Role of State
Increasing Role of Private Universities
Corporate Skill Providers
Internationalization of Higher Education
But undercut by Brain Drain?
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The Role of the State
Regulation
From Provider to Financier to Regulator
Promoting Access and Equity
Invest in areas undersupplied by privatesector
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U.S. Ratio of Earnings: College vs. HighSchool
Devesh Kapur, CASISource: New York Times, March 5, 2011
1.41.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.85
1.9
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Rati
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Rising Costs of Tertiary Educationin the U.S.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Billions
Student Loan Debt
Credit Card Debt
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Bank lending for higher educationin India (in billions of rupees)
20002005
2010
3 40
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Rs.
(billio
Year
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International Student Enrolment in TopFive Host Countries (in thousands)
1999 2004 2008
US 491 573 625
UK 233 300 342
Australia 178 241 231
Canada 131 111 93
Japan 117 107 116
Devesh Kapur, CASISource: OECD, 2011
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Recent rapid increase in Chinesestudents abroad
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India: Overseas Exit to avail of externalsignaling
In 2010, about 264,000 Indian students studied abroad About 100,000 in the U.S.
Other large destinations: Australia, UK, Canada,New Zealand and Singapore
Others in Europe, Russia and China
Primarily self-financed undergraduate education andprofessional (Masters) degrees
Growing Expenditure: $5.5 billion (overseas); $2.2billion (government budget)
Flight of Elites
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but many poor countries do no not
see a return of talent
Expatriation Rates (Doctors and Nurses from Low-Income Countries, 2000)
Nurses Doctors
Bangladesh, Benin, Bolivia, Burkina Faso,
Burundi, Central African Republic, Dem.
Rep. Congo, Cte dIvoire, Ethiopia,
Gambia, Guinea, India, Kenya, Mali,
Mauritania, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger,Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Timor-
Leste, Togo, Uganda, Yemen, Zambia
Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Dem. Rep. Congo,
Guinea, India, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal,
Niger, Pakistan, Rwanda, Sudan, Yemen
Cambodia, Comoros, Eritrea, Ghana,
Guinea-Bissau, Laos, Madagascar,
Mozambique, Papua New Guinea,
Rwanda, Solomon Islands, Somalia,
Vietnam
Afghanistan, Cambodia, Central African
Republic, Chad, Comoros, Cte dIvoire,
Ethiopia, Gambia, Laos, Madagascar, Mali,
Mauritania, Nigeria, Solomon Islands, Vietnam
Sao Tome and Principe, Zimbabwe Benin, Burundi, Eritrea, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau,
Kenya, Malawi, Papua New Guinea, Sao Tome
and Principe, Senegal, Somalia, Timor-Leste,
Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe
Haiti, Liberia, Sierra Leone Haiti, Liberia, Mozambique, Sierra Leone
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Cross Border Supply: Universities
Travel Abroad
Range of Arrangements Overseascampuses, franchise, joint degrees,twinning, etc.
Why are there so few overseascampuses?
Regulatory issues
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The Virtual Future: A Solution?
Early Failures
Recent successes in the US Costs
Open Courseware Movement
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Can Online Education Substitute forBrick-and-Mortar Universities?
Estimated number of students in the US who enroll only online
(in millions)
Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010
2004 0.78
2005 0.99
2006 1.26
2007 1.54
2008 1.78
2009 2.14
2014
(projected)
3.97
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World Internet Penetration Rates, by RegionAs of 2010
Devesh Kapur, CASISource: Internet World Stats, 2010
North America
Oceania/Australia
Europe
Latin America/Carribean
Middle East
Asia
Africa
World Average
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Percent
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What is the purpose of highereducation?
To train people or make them trainable?
To create a middle class?
Be an engine of innovation?
Provide a ladder for social mobility or create national elites?
A mechanism of nation building by influencing and molding the minds
of young people?
promoting social mobility is not our core mission. Our core mission
is to provide an outstanding education within a research setting." -Alison Richard, Vice Chancellor, Cambridge University
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The mission of the university is the discovery,
improvement, and dissemination of knowledgeBy design
and by effect, it is the institution which creates discontentwith the existing social arrangements and proposes newones. In brief, a good university will be unsettling.
--University of Chicago, 1967
A university is a series of individual faculty entrepreneurs
held together by a common grievance over car parking.--Clark Kerr, former President of the University of CaliforniaSystem
He was sent, as usual, to a public school, where a littlelearning was painfully beaten into him, and from thence tothe university, where it was carefully taken out of him.--T.L. Peacock
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Future of Higher Education?
Corporate campusesand workforcetraining
Private providersincreasinglydominant
Overseas higher
education (elites)
Non
traditional
higher
education
development
s
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The Trilemma: Scale, Cost andQuality
Who Gets Educated?
Equity and access especially for historically sociallymarginalized groups
Selection Criteria
Is Traditional University Education Oversold?
Skilling vs degrees
The global hunt for talent: Where are the faculty?
Will there be innovation in Higher Education itself?