High-resolution Climate Scenarios High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Assessments Applications in Impacts Assessments on Water Resources in China on Water Resources in China Yinlong XU Yinlong XU ( ( 许 许许 许 许许 ) ) Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: [email protected]24 Feb. 2008
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High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Assessments on Water Resources in China Yinlong XU (许 吟隆) Institute.
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High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Century and Applications in Impacts
Assessments on Water Resources in ChinaAssessments on Water Resources in China
Yinlong XU Yinlong XU ((许 吟隆许 吟隆))Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)Beijing, China
Cliamte Change Responses over whole China Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenariounder B2 scenario——Maximum/minimum Maximum/minimum
temperaturetemperature
Cliamte Change Responses over whole China Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitationunder B2 scenario----precipitation
Cliamte Change Cliamte Change Responses over Responses over
whole China whole China under A2 under A2
scenario in scenario in 2080s relative to 2080s relative to baseline (1961-baseline (1961-
1990)1990)
Temperature precipitationTemperature precipitation
Annual AnnualAnnual Annual
Winter WinterWinter Winter
Summer SummerSummer Summer
Temperature (Temperature (C) and precipitation changes (%) C) and precipitation changes (%) in Southwest China and whole Chinain Southwest China and whole China(( 20712071 ~~ 2100 vs 19612100 vs 1961 ~~ 19901990 ))
CFD the largest number of consecutive days with daily minimum temperature below 0 ℃
GSL
number of days between the first occurrence of at least 6 consecutive days with daily mean temperature above 5 and the first ℃occurrence after 1st July of at least 6 consecutive days with daily mean temperature below 5 ℃
R20mm
extreme precipitation events with daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 20 mm
Criteria DefinitionRX5day maximum precipitation amount for the 5-day
interval
SDII
ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days (daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 1 mm) to the number of wet day
CDD
Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the largest number consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm
TX95
put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the maximum temperature of this year
a. SU
b. CFD
c. GSL
d. R20mm
e. RX5day
f. SDII
(Unit: %)
Changes of Extreme Climate EventsChanges of Extreme Climate Events2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES A22071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES A2
a. SU
b. CFD
c. GSL
d. R20mm
e. RX5day
f. SDII
(Unit: %)
Changes of Extreme Climate EventsChanges of Extreme Climate Events2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES B22071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES B2
ImpactImpactss Assessment Assessmentss of Climate Change of Climate Change on on Chinese Chinese AgricultureAgriculture
HadCM2ECHAM4
MonthlyT, P
WeatherGenerator
DailyTmax/min, Pre, Srad
CropVarities
SoilData
ManagementData
CropModels
YieldChanges;
etc
ImpactImpactss Assessment Assessmentss of Climate Change of Climate Change on on Chinese Chinese AgricultureAgriculture
WeatherGenerator==>RCM
DailyTmax/min, Pre, Srad
CropVarities
SoilData
ManagementData
Cropmodels
YieldChanges,
etc
How to use future climate change scenariosHow to use future climate change scenariosfor impacts assessmentfor impacts assessment
Observation
Baseline Future scenarios
2050sunder B2 scenario
Impacts of CC Impacts of CC on natural on natural systemssystems
2080sunder B2 scenario
Changes of runoff in China
The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow River
While the potential flooding risk along the Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2 scenario
A2 与基准年
B2 与基准年
Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so large as A2 scenario
人均径流量变化图
不考虑气候变化
A2情景
B2情景
A2 ( 2080S )与基准年
全国径流深变化图
气候变化对水资气候变化对水资源的影响源的影响
Questions to discussQuestions to discuss
To generate higher-resolution climate scenarios
More research fields to expandMore analyses on CC I&V assessmentsCase study on adaptation optionsAddressing the uncertaintiesDeveloping Provincial Strategies to Cope
with CC
ChinaChina’’s INC on CCs INC on CC & & thethe 11stst Version Version of National of National Assessment Report on CC ImpactsAssessment Report on CC Impacts
Computer network to run PRECISComputer network to run PRECIS
Welcome you to visit Beijing!Welcome you to visit Beijing!