US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. May 23, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected]Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box
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High Frequency Indicators - Yardeni · PDF fileTable Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents March 18, 2018 / High Frequency Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. Key Global Indicators
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* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy.
Value of World Exports (IMF)(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa)
Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
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Figure 2.
Key Global Indicators
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* Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10.Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price**(dollars per barrel)
* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures price.
Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 4.
Global Boom Bust Barometer
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Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Figure 6.
US Leading Indicators
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* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &institutions.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &institutions.Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor’s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal.
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Figure 36.
US Liquid Assets
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* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
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Figure 40.
US Profits Cycle
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* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS(yearly percent change)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*
New Factory Orders(3-ma)
* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted averageof current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 42.
US Profits Cycle
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* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS(yearly percent change)
Aggregate Hours
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*
* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 44.
US Profits Cycle
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5/12YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Boom-Bust Barometer*
Consumer Comfort Index
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrialsspot price index (weekly average) divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 46.
Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500
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