Use of Mesoscale Ensemble Weather Predictions to Improve Short-Term Precipitation and Hydrological Forecasts Michael Erickson 1 , Brian A. Colle 1 , Jeffrey Tongue 2 , Nancy Furbush 2 , Alan Cope 3 , and Joseph Ostrowski 4 1 School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 2 National Weather Service, Upton, NY 3 National Weather Service, Mt. Holly, NJ 4 Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, PA
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High Ensemble Variability: Hanna 9/6/08 00Z Run 18-42 Hour Acc. Precip.
Use of Mesoscale Ensemble Weather Predictions to Improve Short-Term Precipitation and Hydrological Forecasts Michael Erickson 1 , Brian A. Colle 1 , Jeffrey Tongue 2 , Nancy Furbush 2 , Alan Cope 3 , and Joseph Ostrowski 4 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Use of Mesoscale Ensemble Weather Predictions to Improve Short-Term
Precipitation and Hydrological ForecastsMichael Erickson1, Brian A. Colle1, Jeffrey Tongue2, Nancy Furbush2, Alan Cope3,
and Joseph Ostrowski4
1 School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY2 National Weather Service, Upton, NY
3 National Weather Service, Mt. Holly, NJ4 Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center, State College, PA
High Ensemble Variability: Hanna 9/6/08 00Z Run 18-42 Hour Acc. Precip.
Select Stony Brook Members Select Short Range Ensemble Forecast MembersGFS Solution “Observed”
Project Goals- To improve short-term (0-48h) hydrological forecasts using a combination of
ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and streamflow models used by
the National Weather Service (NWS).
- Collaborative project between Stony Brook University (SBU), NWS offices at Upton,
NY and Mt. Holly, and the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC).
- Run hydrologic models fed with SBU QPF data over various river basins such as the
Passaic.
- Correct ensemble problems based on
how the models performed in the recent
past.
- Check to see how the ensemble
correction performed for specific
weather cases.
Passaic Basin
Lodi, NJ
SBU MM5 and WRF Ensemble
0000 UTC 13-Member MM5/WRF Ensemble
7 MM5 Members:
-**WRF-NMM (Grell, MRF, Sice)
-WRF-NMM (Grell, M-Y, Reis2)
-GFS (Betts-Miller, M-Y, Sice)
-GFS (KF2, MRF, Reis2)
-NOGAPS (Grell, Blackadar, Sice)
-CMC (KF2, M-T, Sice)
-18 Z GFS + FDDA (Grell, Blackadar, Sice)
6 WRF-ARW Members:
-**WRF-NMM (KF2, YSU, Ferrier)
-WRF-NMM (Betts-Miller, M-Y, WSM3)
-GFS (Grell, YSU, Ferrier)
-GFS (KF2, M-Y, Ferrier)
-NOGAPS (Betts-Miller, YSU, WSM3)
-CMC (KF2, M-Y, WSM3)
All runs integrated down to 12-km grid spacing to hour 48
** MM5/WRF members are run down to 4-km grid spacing
NCEP SREF 21 Member Ensemble
Ensemble run 4 times per day (03z, 09z, 15z, 21z) but only the 21z run is considered for this study.
The SREF consists of the following:
- 10 ETA members at 32 km grid spacing.
- 5 with BMJ PBL and Ferrier MP.
- 5 with KF PBL and Ferrier MP.
- 5 RSM members at 45 km grid spacing.
- 3 with SAS PBL and Zhou GFS MP.
- 2 with RAS PBL and Zhou GFS MP.
- 3 WRF-NMM members at 40 km grid spacing.
- 3 WRF-ARW members at 45 km grid spacing.
Since the initial atmospheric state can never be perfectly known, SREF uses a breeding technique to account for uncertainty in initial conditions.
Stage IV and model details
NCEP Stage IV rain data at ~4 km resolution is available from 2001-present in
1-hr, 6-hr, and 1 day increments.
Stage IV data consists of radar estimates and rain gauge data that were blended
with some additional manual quality control. Accumulated rainfall between hours
18 and 42 of the model run were considered.
The Stage IV and SREF data were
interpolated to the 12 km MM5/WRF
model grid.
Regions sufficiently offshore were masked.
The 2006 to 2008 warm seasons
(5/1-8/31) were analysed.
Total Stage IV Warm Season Precip.
Hydrological Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts
SBU, NCEP SREF, SBU, NCEP SREF,
NAM, and GFSNAM, and GFS
Upton, NY and Mount Holly Upton, NY and Mount Holly
WFO: Ingested into AWIPSWFO: Ingested into AWIPS
MARFC: MARFC:
Downscaling and Downscaling and
Basin AveragingBasin Averaging
6hr accumulated QPF 6hr accumulated QPF
ingested into Ensemble ingested into Ensemble
Streamflow PredictionStreamflow Prediction
Data ingested into Data ingested into
Site Specific for Site Specific for
the Passaic Basinthe Passaic Basin
Hanna Case – 9/6/08 00z (21z) Run Select SREF Members Select SBU Members