© OECD/IEA 2010 High Efficiency, Low Emissions Coal Technology Roadmap Keith Burnard Energy Technology Policy Division International Energy Agency IEA-India Workshop New Delhi, 29 November 2011
© OECD/IEA 2010
High Efficiency, Low Emissions
Coal Technology Roadmap
Keith Burnard Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
IEA-India Workshop
New Delhi, 29 November 2011
© OECD/IEA 2010
Energy Ministers from G8
countries at their June 2008
meeting in Aomori, Japan,
declared their wish to have the IEA
prepare roadmaps to advance
innovative energy technology;
Subsequently endorsed by the
G20;
HELE Coal Technology Roadmap
will be part of the family of
roadmaps published by the IEA
since the first in October 2009.
High Efficiency, Low Emissions Coal Technology Roadmap
To date: • Biofuels • Energy Efficient Buildings • Carbon Capture and Storage • CCS Industrial Applications • Concentrating Solar Power • Cement • Electric & Plug-in Hybrid
Vehicles • Geothermal • Nuclear Power • Smart Grids • Solar Photovoltaic Power • Wind Energy
© OECD/IEA 2010
Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
Priorities More detailed look at next
decade – how can we break out of carbon lock-in?
Energy systems – what are the synergies?
Can renewables make up for low nuclear/slow CCS?
Extended outlook – can we reach zero energy-related emissions?
The changing role of fossil technologies
More regional results – technology projections for 10 key countries and regions
Content Scenarios
Status, vision and tools
progress tracking
technology policy
finance
Energy Systems feature
heating and cooling
flexible electricity
hydrogen
Technology spotlights
coal, gas, CCS
Regional detail
BRICs, EU 27, US, ASEAN
© OECD/IEA 2010
the share of non-fossil electricity has been going down … so far
Nuclear Hydro Non-hydrorenewables
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Share of non-fossil electricityTWh
Source: Climate & Electricity Annual 2011: Data and analyses. IEA, 2011.
Electricity generation by non-fossil fuels
Global leaders agreed a target of limiting temperature increase to 2°C at the UN climate change talks in Cancun in 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
Key technologies for reducing global CO2 emissions
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%
End-use fuel switching 15%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5%
Nuclear 6%
Renewables 17%
CCS 19%
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
sourc
e: IE
A E
nerg
y T
echnolo
gy P
ers
pectives 2
010
© OECD/IEA 2010
Source: IEA Statistics
Elec
tric
ity
gen
erat
ion
(TW
h)
Regional Electricity Generation
The major energy consuming countries rely on fossil fuels for their electricity generation.
© OECD/IEA 2010
Even if its share falls … coal remains a key fuel worldwide
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
historical data
WEO 2009 Reference
WEO 2009 450 Scenario
ETP 2010 Baseline
ETP 2010 BLUE Map Scenario
Coal technologies are key elements of sustainable, least-cost portfolio.
© OECD/IEA 2010
World's Average Annual Growth Rates in Primary Energy
Demand between 2000 and 2008
5.58%
1.38%
3.05%
0.68%
2.8%2.52%
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ind
ex:
2000=
100
Coal/peat
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
The role of coal in meeting recent growth in energy demand
Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source and is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030.
% = average annual rate of growth
Increase in Primary Energy Demand, 2000-08
© OECD/IEA 2010
The coal story … now even bigger
The growth in coal over the past decade represents almost half of total growth
© OECD/IEA 2010
Global coal trends
China’s incremental demand of the last two years is equal to TOTAL EU coal use and not far off TOTAL US 2009 consumption
10
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2008 2009 2010 (*Estimate)
(2010-2008) EU 2009 consumption
US 2009 Consumption
China coal consumption (Mt)
2008
2009
2010 (*Estimate)
(2010-2008)
EU 2009 consumption
US 2009 Consumption
© OECD/IEA 2010
…
Average efficiency of coal-fired plant in China exceeds that of the USA
Power generation capacity in China
© OECD/IEA 2010
Coal fired power generation capacity under construction by country
19 17
112
5
51 12
0 30 60 90 120 150 180
OECD
Non-OECD
GW
United States
Europe
China
India
Other
Source: World Energy Outlook 2009
Stark contrast between OECD and non-OECD countries leads to a substantial carbon lock-in in those countries
© OECD/IEA 2010
Coal use … in absolute terms
Contribution from coal reduces from around 2015?
0
2
4
6
8
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gtoe
historical WEO 2009
ETP 2010
© OECD/IEA 2010
HELE Coal Roadmap – content
Map the required development of advanced coal
technologies for power generation to 2050
Investigate the technical, financial, policy and other
milestones for generating electricity from coal that must
be achieved if the findings of the BLUE Map scenario are
to be met
Consider the regional implications of this development
pathway, particularly for major coal-using countries such
as China, India, Poland, Russia and the US.
© OECD/IEA 2010
HELE Coal Roadmap Timetable
Jun 2011 Workshop on the long-term vision for the
deployment of clean coal
Jun 2011 – Review of cutting edge clean coal
Feb 2012 technologies
Nov 2011 – Regional workshops in US, China, India and
Feb 2012 Eastern Europe
Feb 2012 Workshop on Policy and Finance
Mar 2012 Draft roadmap for review
Mar – May 2012 Review of draft roadmap and editing
Jul 2012 Publication of roadmap