HFIP Global modeling team • ESRL • Stan Benjamin (+ Mike Fiorino, John Brown, JeffW, Bao…) • NCEP/EMC • Steve Lord • NRL • Melinda Peng, Carolyn Reynolds • GFDL • Shian-Jiann Lin • AOML • Kevin Yeh Goal: Improve hurricane (tropical cyclone -TC) track (priority 1) and intensity (priority 2) forecasts using improvements to current operational and research global models. HFIP workshop - NHC, Miami, 9-10 Nov 2009
43
Embed
HFIP Global modeling team 11.09/globmod-HFIP-Nov09.pdf · HFIP Global modeling team •ESRL •Stan Benjamin (+ Mike Fiorino, John Brown ... Details on assimilation effects on GFS
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
HFIP Global modeling team
• ESRL• Stan Benjamin (+ Mike Fiorino, John Brown, JeffW, Bao…)
• Trisection added to icosahedral grid structure, allowing 10km
resolution
ESRL
pure sigmaHybrid sigma-theta
tighter-than-optimal packing of
sigma layers
Formation of
Typhoon Choi-Wan
10km FIM ESRL
Formation of
Typhoon Choi-Wan
10km FIM ESRL
Formation of
Typhoon Choi-Wan
10km FIM ESRL
Formation of
Typhoon Choi-Wan
10km FIM ESRL
FIM Changes in July-Aug 2009
• Version updates for GSD FIM:
• 8/26/2009-00z - FIM revision 762 - Includes modified hybgen (vertical filter, minimum thickness near top, increased relaxation in coordinate movement toward target values). Setting of ptop to 50 Pa (instead of 10 Pa) and min thickness near top = 50 Pa. TACC FIM updated to r762 at same time.
• 7/26/2009-00z - FIM revision 671 - Includes xkt2 random number generator cloud top in convective parameterization, also fixes errors to properly set the initial liquid soil moisture (was being set as total soil moisture including frozen).
• 7/22/2009-00z - Revision to reference potential temperature table to spread out vertical levels near top, revision 661
• 3/20/2009-00z - FIM revision 577 - Correction of initialization and evolution of liquid soil moisture.
ESRL
14
FY10 Implementation Plan
GSI/GFS Fall Bundle – December Ingest new data types
GSI Code changes
GFS code restructuring
Consolidation of GDAS & GFS Posts
BenefitsBetter tropical cyclone definition
Small incremental improvement in forecast skill
GFS Shallow Convection – March Shallow convection, Deep Convection, PBL
BenefitsSignificant reduction in gridpoint storms
Small incremental improvement in forecast skill
GFS Resolution Increase – May T574L64
BenefitsOverall improvement in forecast skill
NCEP
15
GSI Changes – December 2009
Adding new observation data sources. Tropical storm pseudo sea-level pressure obs
NOAA19 hirs/4,AMSU-A, & MHS brightness temp obs
NOAA18 sbuv/2. Monitor N19 GOME, and OMI ozone (no assimilation)
RARS (currently only EARS) 1B data
EUMETSAT-9 atm motion vectors
Implementing improved techniques in GSI analysis. Use uniform thinning mesh for brightness temp data
Improvements to assimilation of GPS RO data (QC, retune ob errors,
improved forward operator )
Add dry mass pressure constraint
Merge GMAO & EMC codes for 4d-var capability
Update background error covariance
Proper use of different spectral truncation between background and analysis
TC intensity forecast error – all basins, 2009- FIM-15km-det vs. FIM-15-ens-mean
- GFDL CSM added
• FIM-15km-EnKF similar in
intensity forecast to GFDL
CSM
• FIM-15km-det-EnKF much
better than FIM-30km-mean
for intensity
ESRL
32
TC intensity forecast error – all basins, 2009-2 versions of FIM-15km: GSI init conds, EnKF init conds
- FIM 10km vs. 15km vs. 30km
• Clear improvement for FIM w/ EnKF IC
• 10km – best intensity
• FIM – better intensity than GFS even at 30km
ESRL
33
TC track forecast error – all basins, 2009- FIM-15km-det vs. FIM-15-ens-mean
- GFDL CSM added
•FIM-15km-det-EnKF slightly
better than FIM-30km-mean
for track for 48, 72, 96h,
slightly worse for 120h
• FIM track forecasts better
than CSM-C360 at all
forecast times
• GFS has lowest track error
for this limited number of
cases
ESRL
34
Track fcst error
n. miles
All basins-2009
TC track forecast error – all basins, 2009
-2 versions of FIM-15km:- GSI init conds, EnKF init conds
•Clear improvement for EnKF IC
• FIM-EnKF better than GFS 72-
96h, mixed @120h
• FIM-GSI worse than GFS
ESRL
Outline
• Global modeling team goals – Stream 1 and Stream 2
• Summary of development efforts by
• ESRL (FIM)
• EMC (GFS)
• GFDL (Cubed Sphere Model – CSM)
• NRL (NOGAPS)
• 2009 TC season HFIP demo for
• configuration – deterministic, ensemble
• results
• Key questions raised in 2009
• Plans for 2010
Current & 2010-2011 plans:
• C360 (~25 km) resolution for seasonal hurricane predictions
• C720 (~12 km) for near future (2010?) 5-10 day forecasts
• Coupled GFDL ocean and “Wave Watch III” model (to improve surface momentum & heat fluxes)
• Improve the 4D vortex initialization (and reducing the initial position & intensity errors!)
• Global “cloud-resolving” (~4.5 km with minimal convective parameterization) forecast experiments to be performed at DOE’s Argonne National Laboratory. Platform: IBM Blue Gene (P/Q) scaling to 200,000 cores (or higher) required for real-time forecast to be meaningful.