Microsoft Word - HMCL-10-7-14-PLJuly 10, 2014
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y U p d at e Surjit Arora
[email protected] +912266322235
Rating Accumulate
Price Rs2,538
Trading data
Major shareholders
Promoters 39.92%
Foreign 30.81%
2015 139.2 140.9 1.1
2016 169.3 168.1 0.7
IN)
Ja n 1 4
M ar 1 4
M ay 1 4
Ju l 1 4
(Rs)
Hero Motorcorp’s (HMCL’s) FY14 annual
report enthuses confidence regarding
recovery in the two wheeler
segment. Vision 2020
targets annual volumes of 12
million – indicating 11% CAGR
in volumes over next 6 years. During FY14, HMCL
made its first ever investment in equity of Erik Buell Racing (EBR) for an aggregate
amount of USD 25m. HMCL also partnered with Magneti Marelli (MM) to bring key
enginerelated technology where it will hold 60% stake in the new entity and invest
USD 27m over the next 10
years. There has been
improvement in the working
capital which saw a swing of Rs8.0bn led by increase in credit terms from creditors.
As a result, cash flow from
operations increased by Rs10bn (57%)
to Rs29.6bn.
Given the strong product portfolio
and the initial success of
Splendor iSmart
(current production at 1,200units / day), we believe Hero Motocorp (HMCL) could
surprise positively on the volume front . We expect a 12.1% CAGR in revenues with
margins likely to expand by 120bps (given the costcutting initiatives). At the CMP,
the stock trades at 18.5x FY15E EPS and 15.2x FY16E EPS, which is attractive, given
26.7% CAGR in earnings over FY14FY16E period.
Vision 2020 – 11% volume CAGR: The management
indicated Annual bike and
scooter sales of 12 million – indicating 11% CAGR in volumes. They are likely to
surpass 100 million units
in cumulative production. The company
is looking to
set up More than 20 manufacturing and assembly plants globally and enhance
its reach in more than 50 countries. HMCL is targeting a Turnover of Rs600bn by
2020.
Contd...2
Revenues (Rs m) 237,681 252,755 280,789
317,403
Growth (%) 0.8 6.3
11.1 13.0
EBITDA (Rs m) 32,845 35,401 40,178
48,235
PAT (Rs m) 21,100 21,091 27,806 33,802
EPS (Rs) 105.7 105.6 139.2 169.3
Growth (%) (11.3) —
31.8 21.6
RoE (%) 45.4 39.8 44.6 43.7
RoCE (%) 39.8 38.7 44.7 43.8
EV / sales (x) 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6
EV / EBITDA (x) 15.4 14.3 12.5
10.3
PE (x) 24.0 24.0 18.2 15.0
P / BV (x) 10.1 9.1 7.4 5.9
Net dividend yield (%) 2.4 2.6 2.8
3.0
Source: Company Data; PL Research
July 10, 2014 2
Hero Motocorp
Product rollouts and R&D success: During 201314, the R&D team successfully
delivered over 12 upgraded models
in a domestic market and 7
variants for
global markets, mostly indigenously
designed and developed. Commenced
construction of ‘Hero Centre of Global Innovation and Research & Design (R&D)’
at Kukas, near Jaipur in Rajasthan, investing Rs4.5bn.
Expanding global footprints across
geographies: HMCL expanded its
global
footprint by launching brand “Hero”
and its range of products in
Central
America (Guatemala, Honduras & El Salvador); South America (Peru & Ecuador);
East Africa (Kenya), West Africa
(Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast)
and most
recently Asia (Turkey & Egypt).
Currently exports account for 2%
of overall
volumes and 6% of domestic motorcycle volumes for HMCL. HMCL & Erik Buell
Racing (EBR) Alliance announced their collaboration as a multistrategy agenda
with the former looking to initiate new product development, R&D initiatives as
well as motorsport through a variety of such initiatives and partnerships. During
FY14, HMCL made its first ever investment in equity of Erik Buell Racing (EBR) for
an aggregate amount of USD 25m to acquire 49.2% holding in the company. This
will lend a visibility
to Hero’s Brand in
the American market. Hero is
likely to
debut at AMA PRO RACING SUPERBIKE championships in the US on EBR 1190RS
bikes.
Other key highlights: Imported
raw material accounted for 5.9% of
the total
raw material cost as against 5.8% in FY13. Royalty increased to 0.5% of net sales
vs 0.2% in FY13 mainly led by new launches. On a per vehicle basis, the royalty
increased by 8.6% to Rs1,168. Advertising cost stable at 2% of net sales despite
increase in competitive intensity
Our volume estimates: Given the
strong distribution
reach and wider product
portfolio, including scooters, we believe, volumes could grow by ~9.0% in FY15E
and 10.5% in FY16E,
thereby, maintaining its turf in
the motorcycle segment
with a market share of 51.0%. HMSI is gaining market share at the cost of Bajaj
Auto and not HMCL. Our channel
checks suggest strong traction for
HMCL
products, both
in scooters as well as motorcycle segments. Also, HMSI has not
been able to make a dent in the traditionally strong market for Hero (north).
Outlook & Valuation: Given the strong product portfolio and the initial success
of Splendor ‘iSmart’
(current production at 1200units
/ day), we believe Hero
Motocorp (HMCL) could
surprise positively on the volume
front. We expect a
12.1% CAGR in
revenues with margins likely to
expand by 120bps (given the
costcutting initiatives). With scooter and export demand likely to be strong and
positive
feedback on new products, we
reiterate our positive
stance on Hero
Motocorp. At the CMP, the stock trades at 18.5x FY15E EPS and 15.2x FY16E EPS,
Annual bike and scooter sales of 12 million
More than 20 manufacturing and assembly plants globally
Presence in more than 50 countries
Turnover of Rs600bn by 2020.
Exhibit 1:
Volumes to grow at 12% CAGR
5,402,444 6,075,583
Volumes
Source: Company Data, PL Research
The main focus areas for the management over next 5 years
Launching new products and focusing on multiple product refreshes.
Focusing on the next big idea to accelerate the pace of innovation.
Collaborating with bestinclass technology
partners to take technology
leadership to the next level.
Reinforcing customerconnect programmes to understand better their everyday
experiences with the products and services.
Expanding across continents of Asia, Africa and South America
Setting into motion amazing customer
experiences and creating value for
all
stakeholders.
of ploughing and sowing. We created a
new identity, built our brand, developed a
technology ecosystem and injected a work
culture befitting a global corporation. All
being well, 201415 will be the year in
which we are able to reap the harvest” –
Pawan Munjal, MD & CEO, HMCL
.
Q1
Entered Africa and Central America with the launch of Brand Hero in these markets
Firstever equity investment
in an overseas firm;
to buy 49.2% equity at Erik Buell
Racing (EBR) for US$ 25 Million
Launched the retail finance arm, Hero FinCorp, with a phasewise expansion plan
Q2
Became the first Indian twowheeler company to reach the historic milestone of 50
million units production
Introduced an innovative campaign
titled
‘Hero Mileage’, capturing Hero’s bestin
class fuelefficiency across its
product range; and the tagline
– ‘Thoda Extra
Kilometre Per Litre’ has gone on to become part of the youth lingo
Initiated project ‘Leap 20’
to bring very high levels of
innovation across the supply
chain, and partnering with suppliers
to drive significant improvements in
cost
structure, even as they raise the bar even higher on product quality and reliability
Q3
Commenced construction of ‘Hero
Centre of Global Innovation and
Research &
Design (R&D)’ at Kukas, near Jaipur in Rajasthan, investing Rs4.5bn
Forms new joint venture
in partnership with Magneti Marelli
to develop nextgen
twowheeler fuelling systems
Registered 6.25 lakh sales in
October 2013, firstever manufacturer
to cross the
landmark 6 lakh unit sales in a month
Launched Splendor iSmart with ‘i3S
Technology, Pleasure with Integrated
Braking
System, Xtreme with ‘Electronic Immobiliser’ and Karizma & Karizma ZMR
Series of refreshes and variants of existing platforms, include HF Dawn & HF Deluxe,
Splendor Pro, Super Splendor, Passion Pro, HF Deluxe Eco, Glamour and Glamour FI
Q4
Entered Bangladesh and Turkey with
an array of popular
Hero motorcycles and
scooters
years on all its twowheelers (5 years or
70,000 km on motorcycles)
features including the allnew Splendor
iSmart, Karizma R, ZMR, Xtreme and
Pleasure
Dare
Given the strong distribution reach and wider product portfolio,
including scooters,
we believe, volumes could grow by
~9.0% in FY15E and 10.5% in
FY16E, thereby,
maintaining its turf in the motorcycle segment with a market share of 51.0%. HMSI is
gaining market share at
the cost of Bajaj Auto and not HMCL. Our channel checks
suggest strong traction
for HMCL products, both in
scooters as well as motorcycle
segments. Also, HMSI has not been able
to make a dent in the
traditionally strong
market for Hero (north).
SCOOTERS FY13 FY14 FY15E
% gr. 25.5% 16.9%
% gr. 34.0% 25.0%
Exhibit 3:
Motorcycle segment volume growth
MOTOR CYCLES FY13 FY14 FY15E
Hero MotoCorp Ltd 5,362,730 5,425,118
5,856,000
% gr. 1.2% 7.9%
% gr. 39.5% 25.0%
Product rollouts and R&D success
During FY14, the R&D team
successfully delivered over 12
upgraded models in a
domestic market and 7 variants
for global markets, mostly indigenously
designed
and developed.
iSmart: With a mind of its own
The iSmart boasts of
i3s technology (patented by Hero) that
intuitively switches off
the engine when idle and switches it on as soon as the clutch is pressed.
Fuel Saving i3S Technology
Introduced the new i3S technology.
i3S is a green technology that
automatically
shuts the engine when idling and turns it on when needed, thus giving more mileage
in congested cities.
Filed over 15 patents and registered/filed 77 designs, in FY14
Features of upcoming R&D facilities
Selfsufficient facilities for New
Product Design, Prototype
manufacturing,
Testing and Validation
Stateoftheart green building designed
by international Architects &
Design
consortium, using best of global technologies
Multiple Test Tracks to simulate all Indian and international test conditions
More than 600 engineers and support staff
Multiple Labs for design validation
and product testing, material
&
environmental testing, components / system performance & simulation, vehicle
performance & durability, noise
vibration harshness (NVH) and
emission &
electromagnetic compatibility (EMC)
Commenced construction of ‘Hero Centre of Global Innovation and Research &
Hero MotoCorp & Erik Buell
Racing (EBR) Alliance have announced
their
collaboration as a multistrategy
agenda with the former looking
to initiate new
product development, R&D initiatives
as well as motorsport through a
variety of
such initiatives and partnerships.
Also the Company expanded
its global footprint by
launching brand “Hero” and its
range of products
in Central America
(Guatemala, Honduras & El Salvador); South
America (Peru & Ecuador); East Africa
(Kenya), West Africa
(Burkina Faso and Ivory
Coast) and most recently Asia (Turkey & Egypt).
HMCL recently announced the launch of operations in Turkey through a Distribution
Agreement with Asya Makina,
subsidiary of Soysal Group to
distribute Hero
MotoCorp two wheelers through its network of 50 outlets spread across Turkey. The
Company has established its
International Assembly units at Kenya,
Tanzania and
Uganda in East Africa.
During FY14, the Company entered into its first overseas Joint venture in Bangladesh
to set up a
twowheeler manufacturing plant with Nitol Niloy group,
in which the
Company will hold majority stake of 55%.
Hero MotoCorp has sewn up
joint ventures
in critical markets and has kickstarted
overseas assembly operations. The
first such operation has come
up in Kenya.
Separate equity ventures with local
firms in Bangladesh and Columbia
are also in
place.
During FY14, the Company exported130,763 units, compared to 161,043 units in the
previous year, resulting
in a decrease of 18.8%. The Company also exported
spare
parts worth Rs400m depicting an increase of 4.3% over the previous year.
Hero MotoCorp, with sales of over 130,763 units, accounted
for 6% of motorcycle
exports from India. This share is likely to go up significantly in the coming years
Magneti Marelli JV
Partnered with Milan
headquartered Magneti Marelli (MM) to
bring key engine
related technology. The immediate focus will be developing and manufacturing next
generation fuelling systems and
creating highly
fuelefficient, environmentfriendly
modern engines for our customers.
Both Hero and MM will
inject equity of US$ 8.5 million
in the ratio of 60:40 over a
threeyear period. HMC MM Auto
Ltd will also develop its own
autonomous
Development Centre.
(EBR) for an aggregate amount of USD 25
m. This investment will acquire a 49.2%
holding in the invested Company. This will
lend a visibility to Hero’s Brand in the
American market. Hero is likely to debut at
AMA PRO RACING SUPERBIKE
bikes.
of ploughing and sowing. Created a new
identity, built our brand, developed a
technology ecosystem and injected a work
culture befitting a global corporation.
HMCL will hold 60% stake in the new entity
to be called HMC MM Auto Ltd and invest
US$ 27 million over the next 10 years.
July 10, 2014 10
Raw Material Expenses 173,977 182,299
201,734 225,511
Gross Profit 63,705 70,456 79,055
91,892
Employee Cost 8,209 9,300 10,416
11,567
Other Expenses 22,650 25,755 28,461
32,090
EBITDA 32,845 35,401 40,178 48,235
Depr. & Amortization 11,418 11,074
7,071 7,707
Net Interest 120 118 100 80
Other Income 3,984 4,464 5,100 5,800
Profit before Tax 25,291 28,673 38,107
46,248
Total Tax 4,191 7,582 10,301 12,446
Profit after Tax 21,100 21,091 27,806
33,802
ExOd items / Min. Int. — — —
—
Adj. PAT 21,100 21,091 27,806 33,802
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 199.7 199.7
199.7 199.7
EPS (Rs.) 105.7 105.6 139.2 169.3
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E
2016E
C/F from Operations 18,903 29,634
42,195 42,898
C/F from Investing (7,298) (16,193)
(22,244) (25,039)
C/F from Financing (10,563) (14,076)
(15,057) (16,216)
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 1,042
(635) 4,894 1,643
Opening Cash 768 1,810 1,175 6,069
Closing Cash 1,810 1,175 6,069 7,711
FCFF 20,542 32,808 23,294 22,016
FCFE 20,162 32,808 23,294 22,016
Growth
PAT (%) (11.3) — 31.8 21.6
EPS (%) (11.3) — 31.8 21.6
RoCE (%) 39.8 38.7 44.7 43.8
RoE (%) 45.4 39.8 44.6 43.7
Balance Sheet
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (16) (19)
(19) (13)
Valuation
P / B (x) 10.1 9.1 7.4 5.9
EV / EBITDA (x) 15.4 14.3 12.5
10.3
EV / Sales (x) 2.1 2.0 1.8
1.6
Earnings Quality
FCFE / PAT 95.6 155.6 83.8 65.1
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Y/e March 2013 2014
2015E 2016E
Shareholder's Funds 50,062 55,999 68,589
86,017
Total Debt — — — —
Net Fixed Assets 31,331 30,974 42,444
55,278
Goodwill — — — —
Net Current Assets (13,161) (16,678)
(18,743) (18,149)
Cash & Equivalents
1,810 1,175 6,069 7,711
Other Current Assets
27,037 26,877 28,755 34,666
Current Liabilities
42,008 44,730 53,566 60,526
Other Assets — — — —
EBITDA 8,327 8,980 8,942 9,934
% of revenue 14.5 13.1 13.7 14.2
Depr. & Amortization 2,869 2,732
2,728 2,800
Net Interest 30 30 29 29
Other Income 1,155 957 1,230 1,200
Profit before Tax 6,584 7,174 7,414
8,305
Total Tax 1,769 1,928 1,870 2,201
Profit after Tax 4,815 5,247 5,544
6,104
Adj. PAT 4,815 5,247 5,544 6,104
Key Operating Metrics
Net Realization/Unit (Rs) 39,121 40,467
41,070 42,060
RM Cost/Unit (Rs) 28,635 29,187 29,507
29,883
Other Exp./Unit (Rs) 3,728 4,123 4,163
4,252
EBITDA/Unit (Rs) 5,406 5,668 5,877
6,392
Net Profit/Unit (Rs) 3,486 3,377 4,067
4,479
Components/Unit (Rs) 28,628 29,172 29,492
29,861
Emp. Cost (Rs m) 8,209 9,300
10,416 11,567
Advertising (Rs m) 4,687 4,935 5,756
6,665
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
July 10, 2014 11
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Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
30.5%
50.5%
19.0%
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
BUY :
Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12months
Accumulate :
Outperformance to Sensex over 12months
Reduce :
Underperformance to Sensex over 12months
Sell :
Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12months
Trading Buy :
Over 10% absolute upside in 1month
Trading Sell :
Over 10% absolute decline in 1month
Not Rated (NR) :
No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) :
Rating likely to change shortly
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