a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider NCRCP20. Herd immunity, anyone? Macro perspectives from RMB Presented by Daniel Kavishe a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider NCRCP20.
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a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider NCRCP20.
Herd immunity, anyone?Macro perspectives from RMBPresented by Daniel Kavishe
a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider NCRCP20.
Core global and Africa themes
Source: RMB Markets
Fiscal and Monetary stimulus
Commodity rebound
Trade deals and geopolitical
tensions
Climate change and rise of ESG
Vaccines and income equality
Volatile markets and exchange
rate implications
Debt stability
Growth To improve over the next few years as countries rebound from pre-pandemic levels
Inflation To lift slightly over the horizon
Fiscal and Monetary policy
To remain supportive of growth
USD levels To weaken this year
Commodity prices To maintain their upward trajectory
Strictly Private and Confidential | Page 3
Regional sectors of interest that “everyone” is focusing on
Source: RMB Markets, Bloomberg
Agriculture
Livestock farming
Crop farming
Energy
Gas
Hydropower
Solar
Oil
Logistics
Airport
Roads
Railway
Mining
Copper
Gold
PGMs
Strictly Private and Confidential | Page 4
What are investors looking for?
Source: WTIIA 2020
Food and beverages
48%
Agriculture
48%
Information and
technology
41%
Utilities
23%
Construction
23%
Pharmaceuticals
23%
Strictly Private and Confidential | Page 5
Vaccination supply disruptions to impact economic recovery process
Country Population size for HIT DDT to reach HIT in next 12 months
Average VR relative to DDT (April)
Average VR relative to DDT (Latest
Kenya** 35,568,822 97,449 105% 5%
Ghana** 20,535,711 56,262 81% 4%
Botswana 1,553,330 4,256 48% 213%
Mozambique 20,771,419 56,908 19% 19%
Côte d’Ivoire** 17,486,029 47,907 11% 45%
Zambia** 12,217,320 33,472 15% 13%
Namibia 1,675,616 4,591 56% 39%
Nigeria 136,651,288 374,387 3% 4%
Egypt 67,524,885 185,000 11% 11%
South Africa 37,293,956 102,175 8% 184%
Source: RMB Markets, Worldometers, WHO
Strictly Private and Confidential | Page 6
Covid-19 update
Vaccinations still quite slow
Population to vaccinate
Source: RMB Markets, Bloomberg
,0,300,600,900
1,2001,500
Nige
ria
Egyp
t
Ghan
a
Keny
a
Moz
ambi
que
Côte
d’Iv
oire
Botsw
ana
Zam
bia
Nam
ibia
,000
Country Deaths/Infections (%) Recoveries/infections (%)Vaccinations doses
o Adhering to AfCFTA protocols indicatoro Freedom of movement indicatoro Part of monetary/customs uniono IHS Markit regulatory burden indicatoro Exports to the rest of SSAo Transport indicatoro Number of port calls
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Esw
atin
i
Rw
anda
Sey
chel
les
Mau
ritiu
s
Cap
e Ve
rde
Uga
nda
Togo
Gam
bia,
The
Ken
ya
Sen
egal
Zim
babw
e
São
Tom
é an
d P
rínci
pe
Nam
ibia
Gha
na
Sou
th A
frica
Djib
outi
Nig
er
Côt
e d'
Ivoi
re
Com
oros
IHS index
Strictly Private and Confidential | Page 12
The information contained in this communication is confidential, and is intended solely for the addressee. This communication may contain information proprietary to FirstRand Bank Limited (acting through its Rand Merchant Bank division) ("RMB"), and may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without RMB's written consent. RMB does not warrant that any information contained herein is complete or correct. This communication is not an offer or agreement to enter into any transaction, and is not a confirmation of any transaction described herein unless the context clearly indicates the contrary. RMB is not acting as your adviser in any transaction that may be proposed herein, and this communication does not constitute a recommendation, guidance or proposal to enter into any transaction. RMB does not guarantee or otherwise assure the expected results of any transaction. This communication may contain views or opinions that are not necessarily those of RMB. You shall not be entitled to place any reliance on the information contained in this communication for the purposes of entering into any proposed transaction or otherwise.
Rand Merchant Bank, a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised Financial Services Provider.