Feb 23, 2016
Help Wanted: Creating Equal Opportunities for
Minoritiesjohn a. powell
Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity
Today’s Discussion - Overview
• What is happening?– An unusual recession/economic crisis– A deep and uneven recession/economic crisis
• Implications?– Long term
• The response– Our Critique– What needs to happen
What’s happening?• A deep and prolonged recession
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities
Uneven Impacts Across various dimensions
• An uneven recession with many disparate impacts– Race, Age, Gender,
Geography, Educational Attainment, Occupation
• Intersections where the recession cuts deep– From recession to economic
crisis5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
J-07 S-07 N-07 J-08 M-08 M-08 J-08 S-08 N-08 J-09 M-09 M-09 J-09 S-09 N-09
Black Latino White Total
Underemployment Rate by Race July 2007 to Nov 2009(Calculated by the Economic Policy Institute)
An Uneven Recession: Geography
Percent of Population in Poverty: 2006-2008
Poverty Rate By CountyPercent in Poverty
Below 20%Above 20%
!( Cities: Poverty Rate > 20%
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Hawaii
Alaska
Texas
Utah
Montana
California
Arizona
Idaho
Nevada
Oregon
Kansas
Iowa
Colorado
Wyoming
New Mexico
Illinois
Missouri
Minnesota
Florida
Nebraska Ohio
Georgia
OklahomaArkansas
Washington
Alabama
South Dakota
Wisconsin
North Dakota
Virginia
Maine
Louisiana
New York
Indiana
Kentucky
Michigan
Tennessee
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Mississippi
South Carolina
West Virginia
Vermont
MarylandNew Jersey
N.H.Mass.
Connecticut
Delaware
R.I.
DC
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Source: American Community Survey
Unemployment by Metro Area
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics *not seasonally adjusted
December 2009 (national unemployment: 9.7%)
Unemployment RateBy Metro
Below National RateAbove National RateNon-Metro Areas
Hawaii
Alaska
Texas
Utah
Montana
California
Arizona
Idaho
Nevada
Oregon
Kansas
Iowa
Colorado
Wyoming
New Mexico
Illinois
Missouri
Minnesota
Florida
Nebraska Ohio
Georgia
OklahomaArkansas
Washington
Alabama
South Dakota
Wisconsin
North Dakota
Virginia
Maine
Louisiana
New York
Indiana
Kentucky
Michigan
Tennessee
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Mississippi
South Carolina
West Virginia
Vermont
MarylandNew Jersey
N.H.Mass.
Connecticut
Delaware
R.I.
DC
Unemployment by County
Unemployment Rate*By County
Below National RateAbove National Rate
Hawaii
Alaska
Texas
Utah
Montana
California
Arizona
Idaho
Nevada
Oregon
Kansas
Iowa
Colorado
Wyoming
New Mexico
Illinois
Missouri
Minnesota
Florida
Nebraska Ohio
Georgia
OklahomaArkansas
Washington
Alabama
South Dakota
Wisconsin
North Dakota
Virginia
Maine
Louisiana
New York
Indiana
Kentucky
Michigan
Tennessee
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Mississippi
South Carolina
West Virginia
Vermont
MarylandNew Jersey
N.H.Mass.
Connecticut
Delaware
R.I.
DC
December 2009 (national unemployment: 9.7%)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics *not seasonally adjusted
Intersections: Geography & Race
Total3rd Quarter
2009
Projected 1st Quarter
2010Black
3rd Quarter 2009
Projected 1st Quarter
2010White
3rd Quarter 2009
Projected 1st Quarter
2010Latino
3rd Quarter 2009
Projected 1st Quarter
2010
Michigan 15.2% 15.7% Michigan 23.9% 24.8% Michigan 13.7% 14.2% Nevada 20.1% 19.0%
Nevada 13.0% 12.3% South Carolina 20.4% 22.7%
Rhode Island 11.2% 11.7% California 15.6% 16.9%
Rhode Island 12.8% 13.4% Ohio 19.5% 22.0% Oregon 11.0% 12.4% Florida 13.1% 14.3%
California 12.1% 13.1% Illinois 18.6% 20.2% Kentucky 10.6% 11.2% New Jersey 12.0% 12.6%
Oregon 11.8% 13.3% Alabama 18.0% 18.8% Nevada 10.6% 10.0% Arizona 11.6% 13.1%
Source: Derived from data tables and analysis conducted by the Economic Policy Institute. Available on the EPI website at: www.epi.org
Top Five States with the Highest Unemployment Rates by Race (Ranked by 2009 3rd Quarter Unemployment)
Source: Economic Policy Institute (EPI)
9.4 9.39.0 8.7 8.8 8.8
9.0
15.7 15.616.2
16.515.8
16.5 16.5
13.112.7 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.6
12.5
10.1 10 109.7 9.7 9.7 9.9
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10
White Black Latino Total
Recovery, Jobs, and EquityNational Unemployment Rates by Race
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs, Race, and GenderMay Unemployment Rates by Race and Gender
9.2
18.0
11.210.3
7.4
13.7
11.1
8.6
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.020.0
White Black Latino Total
Men Women
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs, Race, and AgeMay Unemployment Rates by Race and Age
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
23.5
37.3
29.225.7
8.4
15.7
11.1 9.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
White Black Latino Total
Age 16-19 Age 20+
Unemployment, Incarceration, and Inequality
• In 1998, unemployment reached a 30-year low of 4.5%
• In 1998, the incarceration rate reached its highest point in U.S. history, with 1.78 million men in prisons and jails.
• What does this mean for the true unemployment in African American communities?
Source: Bruce Western; Incarceration, Unemployment, and Inequality
Unemployment, Incarceration, and Inequality
Percent of U.S. population in racial group under correctional supervision
Source: US Bureau of Justice Statistics
0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%
10.00%
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
White Black Other
Larger Racial Impacts than Previous Recessions
Figures taken from Howard J. Wall’s, “The Effects of Recessions Across Demographic Groups.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Sept. 2009
Long Term Impacts & Implications: Recession Generation?
BlackChild Poverty
2008 Native AmericanChild Poverty
2008 LatinoChild Poverty
2008 WhiteChild Poverty
2008
Mississippi 48% New Mexico 37% Kentucky 41% West Virginia 22%Arkansas 47% Arizona 35% Arkansas 39% Kentucky 20%Kentucky 44% California 24% Tennessee 39% Montana 18%Louisiana 43% Oklahoma 24% Alabama 36% Arkansas 17%Oklahoma 43% Alaska 23% Pennsylvania 36% Oklahoma 17%Wisconsin 42% Nevada 9% Rhode Island 36% Tennessee 16%Michigan 41% Data unavailable for other States Massachusetts 35% Mississippi 15%Ohio 41% Oregon 35% Indiana 14%Indiana 40% North Carolina 34% Maine 14%Alabama 38% Oklahoma 34% Missouri 14%Source: U.S. Census Bureau Data (American Community Survey), Analyzed by the Annie E. Casey Foundation Kids Count Database
Top Ten States for Child Poverty (By Race) in 2008
Sources: U.S. Census (ACS), Annie E. Casey Foundation
Long Term Impacts & Implications
• A “recession generation”, As New York Times columnist Bob Herbert stated: – “…there is little doubt that poverty and family homelessness are rising,
that the quality of public education in many communities is deteriorating and that legions of children are losing access to health care as their parents join the vastly expanding ranks of the unemployed. This is a toxic mix for children, a demoralizing convergence of factors that have long been known to impede the ability of young people to flourish.”
• Bob Herbert. “Children in Peril”, The New York Times. April 20th 2009.
The Response• Our research/critique
– American Recovery Reinvestment Act (stimulus)• Has ARRA helped communities in greatest need?• Yes and No• Data challenges make “equity” assessment extremely
challenging• Many areas for improvement
– Additional jobs bills?
Has ARRA Helped High Need Communities?
• Positives – preventing “draconian” state budget cuts• Keeping families out of poverty
Note: Includes 2010 shortfalls
Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities
State Relief: More Challenges to Come – What is the
Response (State & Federal)
Source: Center for Budget & Policy Priorities, Congressional Budget Office
ARRA Contracts and Equity
Federal ARRA Contract Procurement as of May 7th
Source: Federal Procurement Data System, US Census 2002 Economic Survey of Business Owners
16.1%
9.3%
3.0% 4.1% 2.9%
17.0%
5.4% 4.1% 5.5% 3.7%
28.2%
5.2%6.8%
4.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Non-White Women Black Latino Asian
Contracts % Contract Value % % of all US Businesses
ARRA Contracts and Equity
Firm Ownership # of Contracts % of Contracts $Value of Contracts % of Contract $ValueNon-White* 7,274 16.1% $4,393,897,361 17.0%Black 1,365 3.0% $1,050,405,579 4.1%Latino 1,874 4.1% $1,411,950,746 5.5%Women 4,234 9.3% $1,405,745,109 5.4%Asian 1327 2.9% $950,637,041 3.7%Totals 45,306 - $25,891,578,760 -
Source: Federal Procurement Data System
• Women-owned, Latino-owned, Black-owned, and Asian-owned businesses account for 28.2%, 6.8%, 5.2%, and 4.8% of all U.S. businesses respectively, according to the US Census Bureau, 2002 Economic Census Survey of Business Owners
ARRA Contracts and Equity
Source: Federal Procurement Data System
Federal ARRA Contract Procurement: 1st half vs. 2nd half
11.1
5.5
2.0 1.93.1
15.7
7.8
3.7 3.1
5.0
23.9
15.4
4.5 4.86.0
16.7
12.5
2.3
4.76.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Non-White Women Asian Black Latino
Feb-Sept 2009 % of Contracts
Feb-Sept 2009 % of Contract $Value
Sept-May 2010 % of Contracts
Sept- May2010 % of Contract $Value
The Need for Targeted Universalism
Health, 48.8
Education & Training, 31.6
Transportation, 9.3
Income Security, 4.9
Energy & Environment,
2.9
Community Development,
2.6
% of Total% of Total
Source: Government Accountability Office (GAO)
Universal goals require a more targeted approach
Universal Approach of ARRA
• Administration has taken a “race-lite” approach to public investment.
• Examples of targeted investment (like N.S.P.) represent a relatively small portion of an otherwise universal package.
• Budget stabilization funds keep communities of color afloat, but don’t recover or develop.
• Rising tides…don’t lift all boats equally.
A Broader “Equity” Recovery Platform
• Assuring civil rights compliance, tracking and data on recovery and recession
• More targeted investment (geography, race, areas of need)
• More investment in broader community infrastructure (not just roads)
• Connecting marginalized workers to the growth sectors in the “new” economy
– E.g. Linking green economy initiatives to worker training
• New $6 billion Homestar Program• Local Jobs For America Act (HR 4812)
The Kirwan Institute’s Recent Work
• The most recently proposed jobs bill– Targeted economic investments and job relief programs with
universal goals• Targeting by geography/race/need• More proactive (and mandatory) minority business procurement
activities
• This also needs to be tied to more long term solutions– Education/training, preparing for the new economy– Addressing state budget challenges (at the state level and
the federal level)– Addressing structural issues
Help Wanted: Creating Equal Opportunities for
Minoritiesjohn a. powell
Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity