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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
THE WINSTON CHURCHILL MEMORIAL TRUST OF AUSTRALIA
Report by John Nairn ‐ 2012 Churchill Fellow
To investigate developments in heatwave services in Europe and the USA
and explore the potential for mutually beneficial collaborative research.
Hazard resilient governments and
communities maintain risk registers
and understand
what treatment options they can deploy to reduce heatwave impact.
I understand that the Churchill Trust may publish this Report, either in hard copy or on the internet or both, and consent to such publication.
I indemnify
the Churchill Trust against any
loss, costs or damages it may
suffer arising out of any claim or proceedings made against
the Trust in
respect of or arising out of
the publication of any Report submitted to the Trust and which the Trust places on a website for access over the internet.
I also warrant that my Final Report is original and does not infringe the copyright of any person, or contain
anything which is, or the
incorporation of which into the
Final Report is, actionable
for defamation, a breach of
any privacy
law or obligation, breach of
confidence, contempt of
court, passing‐off or contravention of any other private right or of any law.
Signed
Dated 16 July 2013.
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
CONTENTS
.......................................................................................................................................2
CONTENTS ........
....................................................................................................................................3
INTRODUCTION
................................................................................................................................3
PROJECT DETAILS .......
MMARY
.............................................................................................................................4
EXECUTIVE SU...............................................................................................................................5
KEY FINDINGS...........
NDATIONS
...............................................................................................................................6
RECOMME............................................................................................................7
PROGRAM ....................................
UK
ORATION.............................................................................................................8
HEATWAVE COLLABEngland
...........................................................................................................................8
Public Health
.................................................................................................11
UK Met Office.....................................GE
........................................13
RMAN HEATWAVE COLLABORATION
.........................................................
....................13
Deutches Wetterdienst (DWD), Dept. of Human‐Biometeorology (Freiberg)
....................) European Centre for Environment and Health (Bonn)
....................14
World Health Organization (WHO
US
............................................................................................18
A HEATWAVE COLLABORATION........................................................................................................18
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Atlanta.
..............................................................................20
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Maryland
............ DC..............................................................................25
National Institutes of Health (NIH) Washington
S) Maryland
.........................................................................................25
National Weather Service (NW....................................................................28
Columbia University, New York........................................
..................................29
New York City, Department of Health and Mental Hygiene..................................d Minneapolis Health Department
..................................30
Minnesota Department of Health (St Paul) an
er Service Minneapolis (Chanhassen)........................................................................................31
Weath.............................................................................................................................................32
THANKS ....
Appendix 1.............................................................................................................................................37
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
3
INTRODUCTION
Health authorities across Australia have recently recognised
heatwaves as a serious and increasingly hazardous threat to our
communities. This threat was realized in 2009 when over four
hundred people died across southeast Australia during the
January/February extreme heatwave, immediately preceding the 173
deaths arising from the Victorian Black Saturday fires. In
subsequent seasons Australian communities have continued to
experience impacts from intense heatwaves. This is consistent with
expected increases in heatwave duration, frequency and intensity
under projected climate change. State authorities have engaged the
Australian Bureau of Meteorology to explore effective mitigation
and response strategies. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has
responded by developing a national heatwave intensity measure that
enables tracking and alerting for severe and extreme impacts.
Creation of a heatwave intensity measure is only one of many
ingredients required to implement and operate an effective Heat
Health Warning System (HHWS). Analysis of existing HHWSs deployed
across Europe and North America has been undertaken to learn what
parameters have affected the establishment of effective heatwave
services.
This investigation also considered the scientific methodologies
employed to identify and alert for heatwave severity. Comment was
invited on Australia’s new heatwave intensity measure. United
Kingdom (UK) and United States of America (USA) contacts expressed
great interest in this heatwave methodology leading to offers for
collaborative studies to investigate impact sensitivity.
PROJECT DETAILS John Nairn
25 College Road, Kent Town SA, 5067
Ph 08 8366 2723 Mobile: 04 3887 3412
Project Title:
Define severe heatwaves in national and international context
suitable for an Australian warning system.
Generous access to health and weather service agencies in the
UK, Germany and the USA provided invaluable context for the current
level of heatwave services across Europe and North America,
including future aspirations. The people who assisted with my
enquiries and have offered future collaborations are acknowledged
in the body of this report.
The major lessons follow below:
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Commitment to heatwave services and research in Europe and North
America has evolved following high impact heatwaves. This is yet to
occur in Australia despite high impact heatwaves. Key factors
driving northern hemisphere action include:
• public (political) expectations for reduced health impacts
from heatwaves;
• strong partnerships between health authorities, essential
weather services and executive levels of government;
• pursuit and review of evidence based, heat health mitigation
plans supported by peer reviewed literature; and
• ongoing research on heatwave measures and health impacts.
Europe and North America’s development of heatwave services
derived strong political support following a history of highly
visible health impacts from heatwaves. This was particularly
evident following the 2003 extreme heatwave impacts in Paris.
Heatwave mortality awareness has built political support for
government leadership to mitigate future heatwave health risk and
put in place effective public health response for severe heatwave
events.
Unitary states such as the UK, France and Macedonia operate well
developed HHWSs supported by very effective partnerships across
government agencies. These partnerships are less effective in
countries with federated constituencies unless compensation
measures are explicitly deployed. The USA is a good example where
leadership across a partnership of federal agencies guides a
program of research, training and development designed to establish
best practice for state environmental public health
practitioners.
Operational heatwave mitigation partnerships are strengthened in
the UK and USA through the development and sharing of Syndromic
Surveillance System (SSS) data. Collection of morbidity and
mortality impact data is accelerated when extreme public health
events are recognized (heatwave included). Shared real-time
verification of impact data within government partnerships has
built confidence in heatwave hazard response capabilities and
commitment to ongoing review and improvement of mitigation
plans.
Stakeholder engagement is most effective when supported by peer
reviewed science publications. Community wide acceptance of
heatwave mitigation and response plans has been effective when
supported by well communicated science. Australia’s heatwave
intensity science and impact studies (Excess Heat Factor intensity
index and severity mapping), was well received with offers for
collaborative investigations under discussion. Access has been
offered to global weather and SSS data sets in the UK and USA
providing an opportunity to test the impact sensitivity of
Australia’s new heatwave methodology.
An Australian framework is required that will bring together a
wide range of government agencies in partnership to addresses
national and regional health risks arising from climate change.
Facilitation of this development is a high priority.
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
KEY FINDINGS
• hazard resilient governments and communities maintain risk
registers and understand available treatment options they can
deploy to reduce heatwave impact;
• Australian governments (state, territory and federal) must
recognise and endorse strong partnerships between health and
weather services and retain an executive role in monitoring and
facilitating their achievements;
• development and sharing of real-time Syndromic Surveillance
System (SSS) data within an Australian National Tracking Network
would support and improve heatwave response and mitigation
plans;
• heatwave plan governance must incorporate peer reviewed
science as a decision-support principle;
• inclusion of EHF severity maps will be included in UK Global
Hazards Map (GHM operational in 2015);
• GHM data will enable EHF sensitivity studies in Public Health
England SSS data;
• Centers for Disease Control (CDC) will conduct a sensitivity
study of Excess Heat Factor (EHF) component parameters in US
National Tracking Network (mortality and morbidity) data; and
• New York City will study EHF impact sensitivity in SSS
data.
Heatwave alerting systems currently rely upon temperatures (or
temperature indices) that reach threshold criteria for activation
of heatwave or heat health responses. This contrast with the new
Australian heatwave methodology which relies upon the climatology
of heatwave intensity to develop statistically determined severe
and extreme thresholds. Users of the Australian heatwave
methodology understand the degree to which heatwave intensity has
exceeded severe and extreme thresholds for morbidity or
mortality.
The National Weather Service (NOAA, USA) are currently
formulating a new heatwave policy framework which includes review
of their heatwave identification and warning threshold methodology.
The Australian heatwave methodology could easily support at least
part of their new service aspirations.
Extreme heatwaves are associated with dry soils derived from
severe rainfall deficit or drought. Dry soils are responsible for
high impact heatwaves. This raises an area ripe for research. Does
extreme heatwave vulnerability increase due to the drier
environment? It is tempting to think that warmer climates that
normally experience humid heatwaves may have severe heatwave
adaptation strategies that are dangerous when deployed during much
rarer extreme (dry) heatwaves.
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
International advances in heatwave services excel where strong
partnerships have been developed between health and meteorological
agencies. It is clear that these partnerships require constant
exchange of information in order to build a strong
multidisciplinary appreciation of the task that is being
performed.
The US Global Change Research Program has fostered an
environment which has allowed a wide range of government agencies
to recognise their role in improving public health outcomes. Formal
government agency partnerships have grown and continue to develop
synergistic arrangements for health impact services.
An Australian framework is required that will bring health and
weather disciplines together in a partnership that addresses
national and regional needs. Facilitation of this development is a
high priority.
Australian citizens require hazard awareness services at home.
Do they want it when they are abroad? The UK is developing this
capacity for their citizens.
Forecast centres with capacity to operationally support global
models need to consider providing each other with fail-over
support. Australia's remoteness to both the UK and USA makes it an
attractive fail-over partner for northern hemisphere operational
centres. The operational significance of accurate numerical weather
prediction guidance and forecasts will continue to rise as weather
systems produce increasingly hazardous impact events such as
extreme heatwaves.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Bureau of Meteorology continues to develop heatwave service
capability.
Bureau of Meteorology pursue national partnerships in
environmental public health.
Explore potential for establishment of a National Risk
Register.
Environmental public health agencies investigate Nowcasting of
Syndromic Surveillance System data, including means of sharing with
partner response and mitigation agencies.
Explore a national framework for climate change impacts on
environmental public health across federal government agencies.
Bureau of Meteorology investigate capacity for provision of
global hazard impact services.
Collaborative heatwave research is undertaken between public
health agencies and the Bureau of Meteorology, nationally and
internationally.
Bureau of Meteorology becomes a member of GEO CoP, Health and
Environment, seeking to engage climate change issues impacting
national and regional stakeholders.
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
PROGRAM
I targeted health and weather service government agency
partnerships vested with mitigation and response for heatwave
impact. These visits extended into the United Kingdom, Germany and
the United State of America. Earlier aspirations to include France
in my program were thwarted by timing and cost considerations. I am
grateful for the understanding of my Paris contacts who supplied me
with useful information about their heatwave arrangements.
My partner Kerryn Mason accompanied me on several initial visits
to these organisations. In Kerryn’s capacity as a forensic
toxicologist with Forensic Science SA (state agency) we have
investigated and published findings on the impacts of the 2009
extreme heatwave in South Australia. It is notable that Kerryn
conducted a significant program of visits to centres of excellence
in forensic hair analysis, gathering valuable information for South
Australia’s fledgling program for the detection of drugs in
hair.
In London we allowed a week to visit and familiarize myself with
operational and service development systems employed by Public
Health England. This was followed by a week at the Met Office in
Exeter.
In Freiberg we spent two days with the German Weather Service
(Deutsches Wetterdeinst, DWD) investigating public health services
they provided. This was followed up by a one day visit with the
European World Health Organisation division for Climate Change in
Bonn.
In Atlanta we allowed a week to visit and familiarize with the
Climate Change group’s activities at the USA’s Centers for Disease
Control (CDC).
The following week we travelled to Washington DC, visiting the
Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) at the National Centre for Climate
and Weather Prediction, the National Weather Service (NWS) in
Silver Springs, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
The remainder of our investigations included the Department of
Health and Mental Hygiene in New York City, the Environmental
Health Division of the Minnesota Department of Health, the National
Weather Service Minneapolis (Chanhassen) and the Minneapolis Health
Department. Discussions during these visits focused less on policy
and more on discussing practical issues involved with the
implementation of heatwave services.
I am extremely grateful for the care and effort expended to
permit access to these organisations. Extensive dialogue before
departing Australia, during my travels and whilst attending these
institutions ensured the successful completion of my mission. I was
not always successful in conveying my intended availability during
my planned visit which has provided me a valuable opportunity to
improve my communication skills. My hosts were always gracious and
very accommodating.
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
UK HEATWAVE COLLABORATION
Public Health EnglandI am heavily indebted to
Professor Virginia Murray (Head of Extreme Events and Health
Protection, Public Health England) for her valuable time and
profound insights into the operation of the United Kingdom public
health system. Public Health England’s (PHE) pursuit of improved
health outcomes for the UK populace is empowered through the
International Health Regulations (2005, 2nd edition WHO). Cabinet
support for these outcomes is secured once they are placed on the
National Risk Register. It was clear that this risk register
enables routine and emergency discussions with Cabinet Ministers
and officials. Executive government participates directly in the
management of national health risks such as heatwave impact once
they have been registered.
The National Risk Register is based in legislation (Civil
Contingencies Act 2004). The Civil Contingency Secretariat, housed
within the Cabinet Office, is the lead coordination agency and
coordinates multi-agency involvement. Risk scenarios are chosen by
a cross-government group chaired by the Secretariat that includes
all departments that are responsible for specific risks. The
scientific community is involved throughout the process and signs
off on results to demonstrate that a level of scientific rigor has
been accomplished.
This process has resulted in the creation of the Natural Hazard
Partnership that has since evolved within the UK over the last
couple of years. Within the Natural Hazards Partnership the UK Met
Office (national weather service provider) has entered into a
strong partnership with PHE in establishment and renewal of health
impacts services, rather than the weather hazard alone.
The UK’s first heatwave plan was written in response to the 2003
extreme heat event, and has been reviewed on an annual basis since
then. The Climate Change Act (2008) identified the need for
treatments of severe heat and heatwave. A very interesting approach
has been taken in the development of supporting documents. Apart
from standard operating procedures outlined in the heatwave plan,
additional reports have been published designed to support and
reinforce the requirement for the plan. Further supporting
documentation breaks down materials into activities that can be
undertaken by different categories of health practioners. Finally a
series of evaluation reports have been published, examining the
evidence of the effectiveness and value of the heatwave plan. It
was interesting to note that users of the current plan wish to see
higher resolution guidance from the Met Office on the locality and
significance of each event. Mapping rural impact was seen as highly
important. Also noted the desire to standardize data sets and
coding systems so that information can be readily used in
evaluation of impact and shared between organisations.
Effectiveness of the current Heatwave Plan1 is challenged by the
general public’s response to heatwave warnings. The sun starved
populace celebrates the arrival of summer and beach weather
frequently ridiculing the need for protective measures.
Presentation of the heatwave methodology proposed for Australia’s
heatwave service was received well by Virginia’s team. This new
methodology uses the
1
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/heatwave-plan-for-england-2012
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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/heatwave-plan-for-england-2012
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
climatology of heatwave intensity to identify low intensity,
severe and extreme events that can be linked to improved education
and warning strategies. This methodology would not be hard to
integrate with attractive elements of their current heatwave
warning service. Notably, Cold Weather and Heatwave Alerts have a
similar structure, rising from level 0 to 4. Level 0 addresses long
term preparedness planning, through to level 4 where a National
Emergency is declared by the central government.
Quality management of Public Health England’s extreme Cold
Weather and Heat health protection system involves:
• Forecasts from the Met Office for temperature and weather;
• Mortality surveillance data;
• Syndromic Surveillance data;
• Overviews of communication metrics and press feedback, web
hits and Cold Weather/Heatwave Plan downloads;
• Cold Weather /Heatwave Plan evaluation survey – conducted
on-line as a self-compliance questionnaire; and
• Stakeholder engagement workshops in a National Cold
Weather/Heatwave Seminar.
PHE has developed systems for Syndromic Surveillance and
Nowcasting health impacts. The Syndromic Surveillance System
operated out of Birmingham tracks public health database entries
for hospital admissions, General Practitioner home visits and
emergency responses (ambulance) amongst others to characterize
health impacts. This service operates on a weekly update until
notified of a requirement for rapid updates once a health impact
event has been detected or forecast. It is difficult and expensive
to generate daily reports, but the verification of impact is seen
as significant data to enable health administrators to
appropriately allocate resources. The Nowcasting System operated
out of London models the expected health impacts based on SSS
reports and supporting meta-data. This information is continually
updated to improve the level of information available to health
administrators, including Cabinet and across government agency
partnerships.
Discussion with PHE’s Nowcasting group focused on the value of
pooling data. Special mention was made of euroMOMO2, a
collaborative monitoring of excess mortality for public health
action. This is an example of regional data sharing to build
international awareness of public health impacts.
PHE‘s involvement with the 2012 London Olympic Games delivered
important lessons on creation, maintenance and partnerships
required for health services. Lessons have been captured in a book
collaboratively written with WHO, ‘Learning from London 2012, A
practical guide to public health and mass gathering’3.
2 http://www.euromomo.eu/3
http://www.hpa.org.uk/Publications/EmergencyPreparationAndResponse/1303LearningfromLondon2
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Special note was made of the need to track and plan for the
incidence of Ramadan as it commences approximately 11 days earlier
every year. It takes about 33 years and five days for Ramadan to
complete a twelve month move across the yearly calendar. As a
consequence Muslims may require additional support as they become
incrementally exposed to warm season heat events.
Professor Murray noted that a 2012 Cochrane Systemic Review4
found no reliable evidence on the effectiveness of electric fans in
heatwaves. There is insufficient high quality research to guide
policy but noted that the available evidence suggested that there
could be adverse impacts once temperatures reached above 35 °C.
Key findings:
The UK National Risk Register builds Executive Government
ownership of health hazard management.
The Natural Hazard Partnership has established ongoing cross
government dialogue. New relationships are pursued with direct
sanction of Cabinet.
Health impact Nowcasting based on Syndromic Surveillance System
data underpins the operational relationship with Executive
government and across government agency partnerships. Real-time
data sharing is critical to strong partnerships.
There is a strong desire for better community understanding of
heatwaves and for an improved heatwave warning system. The
Australian heatwave intensity methodology offers PHE an alternative
education and communication strategy.
PHE have developed a routine summary Bulletin for extreme events
around the world in order to raise awareness of the frequency,
variety and level of exposure of events that impact public health
around the globe.5
PHE are prepared to share a new heatwave literature review that
they are currently assembling.
I was introduced to the concept of fuel poverty. Commonly
attributed to those unable to adequately heat their homes in the
UK, there is no reason why the term would not apply to air
conditioning in warmer countries such as Australia.
Special Note: Professor Virginia Murray is likely to visit
Flinders University, South Australia in December 2013. Virginia’s
presence in Australia presents an opportunity for a
multi-disciplinary, cross-government agency workshop examining
gaps, opportunities and benefits for partnerships focused on
weather hazards and health impacts. Ideally this event would be
jointly sponsored by the federal agencies with greatest mutual
interest, the Department of Health and Ageing and the Australian
Bureau of Meteorology.
012/4
http://ccnc.cochrane.org/news/media-alert-cochrane-finds-no-reliable-evidence-effectiveness-electric-fans-heatwaves5
[email protected]
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http://ccnc.cochrane.org/news/media-alert-cochrane-finds-no-reliable-evidence-effectiveness-electric-fans-heatwaveshttp://ccnc.cochrane.org/news/media-alert-cochrane-finds-no-reliable-evidence-effectiveness-electric-fans-heatwavesmailto:[email protected]
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
UK Met Office My visit to the Met Office was
extremely productive and entirely dependent upon the interest and
support offered by the Chief Meteorologist (Paul Davies). In the
course of my visit I spent time with the following groups:
• Chief Meteorologist (Paul Davies);
• Public Weather Service – Emergency services liaison (Pat
Boyle);
• Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System
(MOGREPS) (Ken Mylne and Helen Titley);
• Climate Hazards and Impacts Processing Team (Dr Carlo
Buontempo);
• Climate Monitoring and Attribution (Kate Willett, Robert Dunn
and Nikos Christidis);
• Public Health Service (Yolanda Clewlow, Dr Christophe
Sarran);
• National Climate Information Centre (Mark McCarthy, Dan Hollis
and Jack Eyre);
• Head Monthly to Decadel Prediction (Professor Adam
Scaife).
• Head International (Dr Mike Gray).
My interactions within the Met Office were reasonably familiar
and comfortable which is hardly surprising considering I am
employed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, another national
weather service organization.
It was clear that each of the groups I met were attracted to the
heatwave intensity methodology that has been developed for
Australia’s potential heatwave service. By the end of the second
day of meetings it was resolved that this methodology would be
adopted within a Global Hazards Map (GHM) project that is due to be
delivered by the Met Office in 2015. I was advised that the
creation of the GHM is based upon the belief that all UK citizens
deserve to be alerted to impending natural hazards irrespective of
their location in the world. This philosophy should be considered
by the Australian Government, to see if this service principle
could be resourced and extended to Australian citizens by the
Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Discussions then turned to understanding the requirements for
establishing this system within MOGREPS (Met Office Global and
Regional Ensemble Prediction System). This task is not trivial and
will benefit from ongoing discussions and support. Adoption of
Australia’s proposed heatwave methodology within the GHM project
fosters a growing desire to establish a collaborative environment
between the UK and Australian meteorological services. It is
anticipated that data generated within this system would enable
retrospective studies to be collaboratively conducted into heatwave
intensity impacts on health outcomes, both within the UK and
Australia, or with other nations considering the value of heatwave
intensity services.
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Further discussions revealed great interest in securing national
weather service security through an international resilience model.
This concept would permit United Kingdom weather services to be
supplied by the Australian weather service in the event of
catastrophic system failure in the UK, with reciprocal failover
arrangements for Australian weather services. Agreement on this
level of mutual service security would entail high level
intergovernmental discussions, supported by mutually robust
super-computer capacity.
Discussions with both Public Health England and the Met Office
Public Health team (Yolanda Clewlow and Dr Christophe Sarran)
revealed that the existing heatwave service6 was not meeting
stakeholder expectations. In contrast to the Australian heatwave
methodology the UK’s current Heat Health Warning System is based
upon temperature thresholds that lack the capacity to map impact or
resolve sub regional scales.
In discussions with Pat Boyle it became clear that the existing
warning system (level 0 to 4, figure 1) could easily adopt the
Australian heatwave methodology, meeting PHE and Met Office
operational requirements for an operational system with an
objective assessment of impact risk.
Figure 1: UK Met Office Heat‐Health Watch service
Significant potential for collaborative research was also
evident with the Climate Hazards and Impacts Processing team (Dr
Carlo Buontempo) and the Climate Monitoring and Attribution team
(Kate Willett, Robert Dunn and Nikos Christidis). Both groups have
an expressed desire to establish a suitable heatwave methodology
that would permit them to track heatwaves within their
projects.
6 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
GERMAN HEATWAVE COLLABORATION
Deutches Wetterdienst (DWD), Dept. of HumanBiometeorology (Freiberg)
The German Met service (Deutches Wetter Deinst, DWD) main office is
out of Frankfurt (Offenbach), with a few decentralized offices
across Germany, including the Climate and Environment unit at
Freiberg.
The Climate and Environment unit collect air quality data in
support of government authorization of Bad accredited towns. The
‘Bad’ accreditation identifies a quality controlled spa town.
German cultural pursuit of environmental quality is a significant
economic driver for these tourist economies.
The Freiberg DWD BioMet service also provides advisory and
warning services for UV, heat and cold stress. Messages range from
no stress to extreme across four levels (levels 0 to 3). A range of
general health outcomes are explicitly targeted;
• High and Low blood pressure (respiratory and cardiovascular
response based on literature studies),
• Asthma,
• Rheumatism,
• Subjective (head ache, poor sleep) and
• 8 types of Pollen (allergies).
These services are in strong demand from the general public,
media and private met services. Heat warnings are available through
the internet in message and graphic formats.
DWD reported that the media are slow to utilize these messages.
As DWD cannot be assured that media will transmit warnings there
has been a strong push for apps. An app has been designed to target
mobile carers and old age care facilities. It has been developed in
house (Freiberg) and is regarded as the first of many that will
soon appear from DWD. A wave of apps is under development through
external contractors in DWD’s central office. It would appear that
there is little appetite for an ensembled app. Warnings are issued
for heat and UV for Today and Tomorrow for about 400 counties.
DWD Heatwave service: Gridded MOS data (Klima-Michel model) is
used to generate a Perceived Temperature (Tp: temperature,
humidity, wind speed and radiation) based on physiological
adaptation principle. Forecaster generated data was used until 2
years ago. The shift to gridded MOS (Model Output Statistics) data
has achieved higher density data coverage with a small drop in
performance. Forecasts and warnings are generated on a county
basis, with grid points interpolated to produce a weighted
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
representative value. These are also generated at 200 m
elevation intervals. A warning for extreme heat is generated when
Tp reaches 38C (1 day) on the principle that this is over the core
temperature. A warning for strong heat is generated when Tp reaches
32-34C over a two day period in combination with a bedroom
threshold sleeping temperature (Tb). Tb is derived from a building
simulation using the 8-hourly average temperature (10pm-6am) for a
typical first or second level floor of a multi-storey German
apartment block. German homes are rarely air conditioned for
cooling and are heavily insulated for cold weather. Tp is archived
for 30 days to permit the inclusion of an assessment for short term
acclimatization and adaptation. This appears to be manually
assessed by the Bio-Meteorologist when they intervene in the
decision whether or not to warn. Thermal advisory service is
provided for local times 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100.
This group both measure and act as a repository for air quality
data, both particulate and pollens. They have developed a static,
fall tube particulate sampler, which is slowly being recognized as
an industry standard for measuring PM2.5 to PM10 particles. The
sticky plate at the bottom of the fall tube is sent to the Freiberg
lab for optical scanning. Improving algorithms and different forms
of sample preparation now permit the characterization of
particulate by combustion particle, pollen and salt crystals.
Significant body of work is devoted to certifying 'Bad'
classification for resort towns. This work is externally funded. A
separate facility collects a national database for pollens counts
for about 20 genuses. The lab counts for a local site. Attempts to
automate this process have failed. Data collected is used for
prediction and verification of pollen type concentrations and
distribution. Birch pollen is modelled with Swiss support.
World Health Organization
(WHO) European Centre for Environment
and Health (Bonn)
The WHO European Centre for Environment and Health (ECEH) in
Bonn is part of the WHO Regional Office for Europe, based in
Copenhagen, Denmark. The Bonn ECEH is largely funded by the German
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and
Nuclear Safety (BMU).
Australia is a member of the WHO Western Pacific Region, based
in Manila. Heat-waves are not thought to be a major initiative
within this Region, which includes China, South Korea, some of SE
Asia (not Thailand or Indonesia), Japan, Philippines, Pacific
island states, Australia and New Zealand (37 Member States).
The only other WHO Region thought to be focussed on heat-wave
health outcomes is the WHO Region of the Americas (Pan American
Health Organization, PAHO), based in Washington, DC.
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Key lessons:
Only a few sketchy European heat-wave plans were in existence
before 2003. A great deal of political will was generated as a
consequence of the impact of this heatwave. Public pressure has
enabled governments to fund serious on-going research programs, and
follow through with well-developed plans. Despite the investment in
research, it is evident in most cases that temporal and spatial
proximity to the 2003 event has resulted in best adoption. Of the
53 member states involved approximately only one third have
developed and implemented quality plans. Even then the degree of
success within this group is highly varied.
WHO Regional Office for Europe believes that key European
contacts will provide valuable insights into navigation of the post
2003 political and research process. These contacts are being
acquired.
WHO regard their heatwave evidence and planning development
phase to be largely complete, and that they now have a residual
role in facilitating take-up in Europe. Flooding is currently their
next health-hazard priority requiring evidence and planning
development. They currently maintain an update service where they
provide an alert of heatwave potential for most member states,
avoiding nations such as England, France, Germany and Macedonia
where robust systems are established.
Adoption has been driven by jurisdictional structure; in the
cases of England, France and FYR Macedonia the centralist control
of health has resulted in coherent communication and implementation
of a centrally derived plan. Other nations with a federal structure
require strong local level planning to achieve good results. This
was noted to be the case in Italy, where national initiatives and
plans are highly decentralized. The best example was the
surveillance incentive for GPs to identify at risk clients within a
database in return for a €10 payment. Germany on the other hand has
limited examples of strong heatwave plan adoption; the exception is
the federal state of Hessen. The state of Hessen in western Germany
was impacted by the 2003 event.
In Australia's case, the Italian and German experience could be
significant. As a federated country, health initiatives are
controlled at a state level. The ability of the Australian Bureau
of Meteorology to deliver a single coherent service to the
state-based health systems will require considerable dialogue,
partnership development and stakeholder management that facilitate
an effective production to consumer service environment.
Worthy of note was the enthusiasm with which the Macedonian
heat–health plan of 2010 was endorsed. A country of 2 million
people, located within a 26,000 square kilometre area divided into
5 zones. Meteo (national weather service) run the Heat–Health
Action Plan7, providing up to 48 hours notice via SMS and emails of
heat-wave conditions. Warnings incorporate four levels with each
detailing required actions on the part of participating agencies.
Media interest is very strong in ensuring that each agency has
engaged with the plan when an alert is issued. In the event of a
high impact event they also provide a 24-hour SOS telephone line.
An English
7 http://www.toplotnibranovi.mk/en/
15
http://www.toplotnibranovi.mk/en/
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
version of their service is available through their web site.
The service is also provided for cold-waves.
WHO publish a Heat Information Sheet8 which includes an overview
of a range of ISO standards for heat assessment, measurement and
protection. Some of the measurement standards are difficult to
measure with literature support in Australia for the use of Thermal
Work Limit9,10.
WHO are about to publish a status of heat-wave plans and their
adoption across Europe. This would be a great process for managing
and building a shared awareness amongst Australian stakeholders and
in building adoption across state and territory jurisdictions.
There was repeated emphasis of the need for collaboration and
partnerships between agencies, at national and regional level and
involvement of civil society. Europe strongly endorses the value of
the Red Cross as a trans-border Non Government Organisation (NGO).
Contributions of civil society are significant political aides in
developing the heat-wave planning agenda. Madeleen Helmer
([email protected]) of the Red Cross/Red crescent Climate Centre
in The Hague (Netherlands) was mentioned as a potential
contact.
The Public Health Adaptation Strategies to Extreme weather
events (PHASE11) project is a major European collaboration that
will run from 2011 to 2014. It is building a framework of tools for
the preparedness and response to extreme weather events and their
environmental consequences.
Canadian Health Service - highly acclaimed literature
review.
Key Australian contacts to be pursued:
• Tony McMichael (retired)
• Sally Forest (paediatrician, WA)
• Garnaut Review, 2008. Health assessment of costs considered to
be very sound - look at contributors for other contacts.
Dot Point Summary:
Leadership and partnerships
Decentralized initiatives
Setting up heat–health plan from scratch needs clear lines of
command and control once an event is underway - an accountable and
active impact monitoring authority. 8
http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/147265/Heat_information_sheet.pdf9
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_work_limit10
http://annhyg.oxfordjournals.org/content/51/6/553.long
11
http://www.hpa.org.uk/Topics/EmergencyResponse/ExtremeWeatherEventsAndNaturalDisasters/PHASE/
16
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_work_limit
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Clear descriptions of how civil groups are involved.
Economic value of heat-waves important to articulate; solid data
impact assessment critical
6th June impact assessment tool:
www.euro.who.int/climate-change-economic-tool
Systematic literature review
Heat–Health Action Plans – Guidance12:
Public Health Advice on preventing health effects of heat13.
12 www.euro.who.int/heat-health-action-plans-guidance13
www.euro.who.int/public-health-advice-on-heat
17
https://owa.bom.gov.au/owa/redir.aspx?C=BZ9HP2jJ2Uyk1evswm-uyj_Bi7BER9BIyivWrs0xWuxOXAtx1zaV9yNqPZX_9wNWwvQU1CkhArU.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.euro.who.int%2fclimate-change-economic-toolhttps://owa.bom.gov.au/owa/redir.aspx?C=BZ9HP2jJ2Uyk1evswm-uyj_Bi7BER9BIyivWrs0xWuxOXAtx1zaV9yNqPZX_9wNWwvQU1CkhArU.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.euro.who.int%2fheat-health-action-plans-guidancehttps://owa.bom.gov.au/owa/redir.aspx?C=BZ9HP2jJ2Uyk1evswm-uyj_Bi7BER9BIyivWrs0xWuxOXAtx1zaV9yNqPZX_9wNWwvQU1CkhArU.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.euro.who.int%2fpublic-health-advice-on-heat
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
USA HEATWAVE COLLABORATION
The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) aims to build a
globally engaged nation which is guided by science in meeting the
challenges of climate and global change. Under this umbrella the
Climate Change and Human Health workGroup (CCHHG) coordinates
federal research efforts on human health and climate change. CCHHG
(chartered in 2009), is co-chaired by CDC, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Institutes of Health
(NIH), influencing the activities of USAID, Department of State,
Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, Department
of Defense, US Geological Survey, US Department of Agriculture,
National Institute of Environmental Health Services and National
Aeronautical and Space Agency (NASA). In the program of my
investigations with the CDC, NOAA, NIH and NASA it became clear
that the over-arching framework provided by CCHHG has been pivotal
in guiding the outreach, decision support, development and ongoing
research programs for reducing the impact of extreme heat amongst
other environmental health hazards. This work is designed to
provide both national and international outcomes. Development of an
Australian framework for reduction of extreme weather and climate
impacts needs to consider whether it is able to reduce impacts
beyond our immediate borders. There may be an opportunity to
provide environmental public health benefits for our regional
neighbours, particularly where diseases are spreading under
changing climates.
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Atlanta
During the visit we joined a webinar jointly organized by the
American Public Health Association (APHA) and the CDC on “Beating
the Heat: Preparing for Extreme Heat Events at the State and Local
Level”. APHA provides free access for attendees (approximately 1000
tune-in every month) and retain these presentations on their web
site14. The popularity of this resource has risen astronomically
since strict travel restrictions have been imposed by various
levels of government.
CDC has prepared a new Extreme Heat website15 which contains
self-help information to assist public health organizations to
prepare and appropriately respond to extreme heat.
A major public health education resource has been developed to
enable county level data mining using their Public Health Tracking
Network Reporting Tool. The CDC is mandated by Congress to operate
a collection network that enables analysis, and interpretation of
data about:
• environmental hazards,
14 http://www.apha.org/advocacy/reports/webinars/default.htm15
http://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/index.asp
18
http://www.apha.org/advocacy/reports/webinars/default.htmhttp://emergency.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/index.asp
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
• exposure to environmental hazards, and
• health effects potentially related to exposure to
environmental hazards.
The CDC provides funds to 23 state and local health departments
to develop local tracking networks. These networks feed into the
National Tracking Network which currently has data for the period
2000 to 2009.
Detailed morbidity and mortality data is complimented by
information about hazards through the ‘Explore Tracking Data’ on
the National Tracking Network web site16. On this link the ‘Climate
Change’ option on the ‘Select Content Area’ allows access to a
diverse range of heat hazard measures and impacts. Results are
display in a variety of formats and may also be downloaded. They
are only made available where statistical significance is present
in the data.
In the case of heatwaves it is possible for a user to identify
past heat events and explore how at risk populations were impacted.
As a student-centred learning experience this tool is central to
CDC’s outreach and training program.
Research
CDC has a Memorandum of Understanding with NOAA (see CPC below)
to work on Heat Warning Services that are customized to the impacts
observed at county level. To date the CDC team has considered 92
different heat definitions from which 25 have been adopted for
testing against their county level impact data. Only a few
definitions have been selected with variations in lag patterns
accounting for the total under investigation.
A very interesting observation was made about the mismatch
between health encoded and weather encoded data. Investigation into
how well past impact events would have been forecast using
published weather forecasts has involved comparison of health data
defined by county boundaries and forecast weather data defined by
NWS forecast boundaries. The task in reconciling this mismatch has
not been trivial. The more recent move to gridded weather
observation and forecast data sets will significantly reduce this
problem for examination of more contemporary health data.
CDC has examined observed weather events using 14 km resolution
North American Land Data Assimilation System (N-LDAS) temperature
data. This data is resolved to a county area average before being
used to calculate various heat indices.
There was strong interest in the proposed Australian heatwave
methodology. The simplicity and apparent sensitivity of this
heatwave index immediately appealed to the CDC team. An
investigation into how this index performs against the National
Tracking Network data set has been proposed incorporating a
sensitivity study of the parameters within the index. This generous
offer has the potential to generate a significant peer reviewed
publication which in turn can assist with health industry
stakeholder engagement in Australia.
16 http://ephtracking.cdc.gov/showHome.action
19
http://ephtracking.cdc.gov/showStateTracking.actionhttp://ephtracking.cdc.gov/showStateTracking.actionhttp://ephtracking.cdc.gov/showHome.action
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Maryland
I visited the National Centre for Climate and Weather Prediction
located on the College of Maryland Campus. An initial meeting with
Mike Halpert was followed by discussions with Wayne Higgins (a/Head
CPC), John Gottschalck (Head of CPC Operational forecasting) and
Dan Collins (sub-seasonal to seasonal hazard outlooks).
Strong emphasis was placed on the significance of strong
partnerships between meteorological and health agencies. As an
illustration, Wayne was keen to advise that approval had just been
granted for $4M in new CPC modelling initiatives tackling coastal
inundation ($2M) and extreme heat resulting in human impact ($2M).
This was viewed as a green light to further initiatives development
under a Memorandum of Understanding with the Climate Change Group
at CDC. It was clear that research initiatives could include
Australian collaborations, particularly where mutual interests
improve prospects for seasonal predictions of heatwaves.
I was guided through CPC sectional activities where medium to
long range forecasts contribute to extreme heat assessments.
Climate assessments of drought and temperature are important
collectively, as dry soils support higher temperatures: ENSO (El
Nino Southern Oscilation) monthly updates are released as monthly
updates with 8 week projections. Production is managed
cooperatively with International Research Institute for Climate and
Society (IRI) since January 2012. Drought Monitor product suite is
released on Thursday mornings for 334 climate divisions across USA.
Manual intervention to decide on Day0, D1, D2, D3 or D4 (zip,
20th%ile, 10, 5, 2) categories. There is input from up to
approximately 300 people (reference group) to assist with impact
interpretation (ground truth - photos are also lodged). Normal
practice is to commence with last week's map (persistence).
Objective short-term drought indices are blended with long-term
percentile indicators. Assessment is filtered through
considerations of land-use, time of year, ecology, soil type and
soil moisture. Drought monitor is overlaid with stream-flow
percentiles, which has problems where the flow is heavily managed -
but easily interpreted when viewed in a map overlay. Drought
Monitor is jointly authored with Department of Agriculture. Drought
is declared when 8 consecutive weeks are D2 or when D2 fo 8 weeks
in 12 week period. Monitor is responsible for approx $480M pa in
farm aid. Drought Outlook product is released twice a month on
Thursdays in GIS (spatial) format. Quite subjective but aided with
some objective tools. Produced as 7 day fcst, then (CPC based) 6-10
day, 8-14 day, 1 and 3 month outlooks. Outlooks for 3-4 months
produced twice a month. Intention is to alternatively release 1
month outlook, followed by high resolution of rapidly developing
drought outbreaks that may not have been captured in conventional
systems (statistical or dynamical models)17 18. 17
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions18
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/
20
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Excessive Heat Outlook is determined through considering Max
Heat Index or Mean Heat Index where 3 days in 5 with a daily mean
heat index of at least 85F, combined with a Min Heat Index
criteria. Further clarification was required once meeting happened
with the National Weather Service (NWS, also part of NOAA).
Interesting to note that NWS have responsibility for 1-7 day with
aspirations to extend to 10 days whilst CPC look after 6-10 days
(temperature and precipitation) as well as 8-14 days, monthly and
seasonal and multi-seasonal time ranges. It is clear that NWS and
CPC will reorganize and redistribute responsibilities for time
ranges as current arrangement are confusing. The product below is
produced by the NWS (figure 2) and clearly is in a transition zone
with CPC’s 6-10 day guidance (figure 3)19. Considerable care is
required to ensure that these products do not provide conflicting
advice.
19
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/heat/hi_610.php
21
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/heat/hi_610.php
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Figure 2. NWS 2-3 day Hazards Outlook.
Figure 3. CPC 6-10 day Max Heat Index Outlook.
22
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Washington DC
NASA has a program of satellite studies aimed at improving
understand and management of environmental health and air quality
managed through the Applied Sciences Program, Earth Science
Division, Science Mission Directorate.
Within this program NASA’s stated strategic goal is to “Advance
Earth System Science to meet the challenges of climate and
environmental change.”20 Typical examples of this work include
satellite remote sensing of severe storm impact zones (ie. Severe
Storm Sandy), Volcanic ash clouds (aviation hazard), sea surface
heights (development of El Nino), sea ice thickness (Arctic Ocean
environmental change) and wild fire smoke plumes.
NASA partners with private and public organizations to bring the
benefits of remote sensing sciences to decision making
activities.
A very interesting anecdote during our discussions was offered
on the high rewards of outreach activities. NASA’s public health
initiatives enjoyed limited success whilst they worked within
familiar physical sciences circles. A shift was noted when NASA
presented their environmental studies at a major health industry
conference. Their capabilities received national media coverage
with headlines announcing how NASA scientists were working on
improving health outcomes. A broad range of enquiry from the health
science community was generated. Whilst not all new proposals were
feasible, many of those that could be tackled came with fresh
funds. A shift in NASA’s engagement with partners has been
extremely rewarding.
Remote sensing of the radiative qualities of surfaces informs
analysts of the impact of built and natural environments on how
hazards are evolving and how they might be managed.
NASA supports CDC’s public health decision support system.
Observed and modelled hazards (dust, extreme temperatures, mosquito
and meningitis areas, pollens, algal blooms, nitrogen dioxide and
ozone) are mapped.
An Applied Remote Sensing Training program (ARSET) provides
end-users with professional technical workshops that enable access,
interpret and use NASA satellite images for decision support.
Online courses are free.
NASA has funded the I-HEAT project (Internet-based Heat
Evaluation and Assessment Tool) to evaluate the feasibility of
integrating multi-scale remotely sensed imagery, demographic, and
health data in Internet-based software to enable health
professionals to rapidly identify populations at risk from extreme
heat events.
I-HEAT involves Indiana University, CDC & NASA in the
application of the Extreme Heat Vulnerability Index (EHVI) in a
spatially enabled assessment system.
20
http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2010/08/30/2010SciencePlan_TAGGED.pdf
23
http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2010/08/30/2010SciencePlan_TAGGED.pdf
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Developers note that the system provides a hyper-dimensional
decision matrix that:
• Improved identification of locations that are particularly
vulnerable
• Improved ability to mitigate the health-related impacts.
Especially, when coupled with currently developing heat-health
communication toolkits.
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/
• Improved communication of events to especially vulnerable
individuals/communities
• Disaster prevention funding documentation
• Continue interaction with focus groups
• Implement the ensemble of models and begin full implementation
in each city
• Automation of process
• Collect mortality/911 data for this past summer; further
enhance interface for model re-runs
• Continue work on MODIS downscaling for daily guidance in each
city
• Explore new cities that would be very good test areas for
spatial expansion of the system (Indianapolis, Chicago have already
been identified, NYC, Oklahoma City are future possibilities)
• Explore expansion spatially to statewide system
24
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
National Institutes of Health (NIH) Washington DC An
interesting discussion with John Balbus provided a better
understanding of the peak bodies enabling partnership arrangements
between federal agencies.
National Weather Service (NWS) Maryland
My visit to the NWS Headquarters was a high pressure event with
four meetings and my presentation on the Australian heatwave
methodology filling the day. I am very grateful for the organising
and support provided by Jenna Meyers.
NOAA’s Ocean and Human Health initiative21 was discussed with
Juli Trtanj. The report “A Human Health Perspective On Climate
Change, A Report Outlining the Research Needs on the Human Health
Effects of Climate Change”22, (Interagency Working Group on Climate
Change and Health, IWGCCH, 2009) was coordinated by National
Institutes of Environmental Health Services authors, with lead
authors from the CDC, US GCRP, US EPA, US Dept. of Agriculture and
NOAA. Juli was the NOAA lead author. The coordination of agencies
through this publication set the research agenda for all aspects of
the research-decision making needs to address climate change,
including heatwave impacts.
Juli identified GEO CoP23 Health and Environment (Group on Earth
Observation Communities of Practice) as a peak body developing the
use of environmental observations to improve health decision-making
at the international, regional, country and district levels. This
group has facilitated the development of a Cholera Early Warning
System in Bangladesh with some discussion now extending to
Indonesia. Australia is a participant in several other CoP groups
under GEO, but not Health and Environment. There is potential for
Australia to participate in regional GEO Health and Environment CoP
initiatives that would immediately benefit our neighbours and
develop capabilities that may be needed domestically under climate
change.
Juli also noted that NOAA is facilitating the reach of the CDC
through including health messages in Tornado Watch and Warning
messages. Whole of government cooperation on health initiatives has
been made possible by the foundation work of the IWGCCH and the
ongoing recognition of the link between weather extremes and public
health impacts.
21 http://oceansandhumanhealth.noaa.gov/22
http://oceansandhumanhealth.noaa.gov/media/docs/HHCC_Final_508.pdf23
http://www.earthobservations.org/cop_he_henv.shtml
25
http://oceansandhumanhealth.noaa.gov/http://oceansandhumanhealth.noaa.gov/media/docs/HHCC_Final_508.pdf
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Current NWS operational heat services planning:
Excessive Heat Products, Services and Activities
Operational Products/Ongoing efforts
Provide national guidance on issuance of heat products. Minimum
guidance provided in directive 10-515
• Watch issued when conditions favourable for heat warning event
to occur in the next 24-72 hrs
• Advisory issued when the heat index (H.I.) meets or exceeds
locally defined criteria for one to two days (typically H.I. >=
100 “north”, 105 “south”, night-time lows >= 75)
• Warning issued when H.I. meets or exceeds locally defined
criteria for two days (typically H.I. >= 105 “north”, 110
“south”, night-time lows >= 75)
• Local Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) are strongly encouraged
to develop local criteria in cooperation with local emergency and
health officials, and/or utilize detailed heat/health warning
systems based on scientific research
Supported the development of operational Heat Health Warning
Systems (HHWS) – measures oppressive air masses that impact human
health; predicts additional deaths attributable to heat. The
operation of this system is funded by NOAA in 14 cities: Chicago,
IL, Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX, Dayton/Cincinnati, OH, Houston, TX,
Kansas City, MO/KS, Los Angeles, CA, Minneapolis, MN, New York, NY,
Oklahoma City, OK, Portland, OR, San Francisco/San Jose, CA,
Seattle, WA, St. Louis, MO, Washington/Baltimore, MD.
but not its use in these cities: Detroit, MI, Hanford (Fresno),
CA, Indianapolis, IN, Jackson/Meridian, MS, La Crosse, WI, Lake
Charles/Alexandria, LA, Little Rock/Pine Bluff, AR, Memphis,
TN/Tupelo, MS, New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA, Philadelphia, PA,
Philadelphia, PA (cold system), Phoenix, AZ, San Jose, CA (cold
system), Shreveport/Monroe, LA, Yuma, AZ,
High heat indices which do not meet advisory criteria are
included in beach hazards statements with messages on heat safety
on the NWS web page.
Description of the NWS heatwave has been appended to the back of
this report.
Partnerships
Don’t Fry Day – Memorial Day weekend effort to raise awareness
about exposure to extreme heat and UV radiation. Partners include
National Council on Skin Cancer prevention, EPA, OSHA, CDC and the
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
OSHA – Partnership to include heat safety information for
outdoor workers in heat products
26
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Current Studies
Pacific NW Heat Health Program – OR and WA State Climatologists
leading a study to refine heat criteria for their area
Heat waves and health impacts – study at UC Davis to analyse
implications for heat warning systems and responses; engaging NWS
Sacramento
Western Region developing a Heat Awareness Index based on heat
climatology; colour coded threat level and thresholds developed in
coordination with health experts
Internal Review of NWS Heat Products24 and Communication of Heat
Hazards
Gathering best practices and other ideas on how we might improve
our communication of expected extreme heat events to our partners
and the public
• Document variations in the usage of heat-based WWA products
across the country
• Learn of the degree to which local criteria are applied to WFO
decision-making processes in issuing these products
• Assess the level of usage of Heath Health Warning Systems for
WFOs that have them
• Gather ideas for enhancing communication of expected excessive
heat events in general
NOAA-wide Strategic Planning and Priorities
Impact of extreme heat stress events on public health
• Engage the user community on additional current and future
needs related to health and extremes
• Develop operational heat stress information products, as well
as integrate health information into existing products
• Engage in research activities to improve predictions and
projections for future heat stress events across timescales (weeks
to decades)
NWS-related Activities:
• Needs assessment
• Development of week-2 (8-14 days) excessive heat watch-warning
outlook (CPC)
24 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
27
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Columbia University, New York Brief visits were
made with Radley Horton at the Center for Climate Systems Research,
New York City Campus and with Bradfield Lyon at the International
Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Lamont Campus. It
was interesting to understand how climate sciences are connected
into heatwave research.
The Center for Climate Systems contributes to the National
Climate Assessment25 which is updated every four years (due in
early 2014) and administered by the US Global Change Research
Program26. They have also provided a regionally downscaled climate
projection to the State and City of New York which was in the
process of being re-done during our visit. Publications are
available through their web site27.
The Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and improvement Project
(AgMIP) is highly inter-disciplinary global program involving
UKaid, USDA, USAID, Consultative Group on International
Agricultural Research (CGIAR), research program on Climate Change,
Agriculture & Food Security (CCAFS) and NASA. Comment on
disproportionate impact of modern cropping infrastructure and
various climate hazards. Bangladesh could raise its food production
six fold with available technologies, whilst climate extremes
(apart from inundation) vary the current production by 10%. A
challenging environment where economic modelling of crop yield is
determined by shifts in land production type. These models are
extremely difficult to operate and lack the sophistication of
available climate models. The difference means it is very hard to
generate multiple economic scenarios. Alex Ruane recommended Peter
Thorburn for his agricultural climate modelling in the CSIRO
(Queensland).
Discussions with Stuart Gaffin centred on urban adaptation to a
warming climate. A lot of research now focuses on roofing
materials. Special note made of C40Cities28, a Climate Leadership
Group dedicated to promoting how large cities can adapt and
mitigate the effects of climate change as well as reduce their
carbon footprint.
IRI collaborate in the production of the CPC ENSO
assessments.
Activity within universities is heavily dependant upon
successful grants.
25 http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment26
http://www.globalchange.gov/home27 http://ccsr.columbia.edu/28
http://www.c40cities.org/
28
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessmenthttp://www.globalchange.gov/homehttp://ccsr.columbia.edu/http://www.c40cities.org/
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
New York City, Department of Health and Mental Hygiene
Very interesting discussion that covered a range of relevant
topics and confirmed details picked up in heatwave discussions with
other USA agencies.
New York City has a heat response plan under the Office of
Emergency Management which coordinates and leads emergency
response. This plan details access arrangements for cooling
centres, public advisory messaging, protection of key
infrastructure including the power grid and water supply. Examples
were given where avoidable excavations are put on hold to avoid
accidental power disruption, or water hydrant spray caps are
distributed to permit play, and maintenance of water pressure.
Once weather leading to a heat advisory or warning is
established they increase monitoring in their Syndromic
Surveillance System. This is used to communicate a impact through
providing advice on impact as a percentage increase in morbidity
and morbidity. Actual numbers are not released as they are
difficult to interpret by the public or other government agencies.
It was noted that the SSS information is important for providing
evidence of impact to other agencies, to build confidence in the
requirement for response.
Activation of alerts or warnings occurs when a maximum Heat
Index of 95F occurs for two days or one day of 100F. This involves
consultation with the local NWS forecast office to gain early
information on these criteria. An early threshold of a one day
maximum Heat Index of 105F was deemed to be too high. Kalkstein’s
spatial synoptic system is also available but is considered to only
add complexity and is difficult to use operationally.
A Panel on Climate Change was convened by the Mayor, and
authorized the production of a report on projected climate change
hazard trends in 2009. This report which down-scaled climate
projections to the scale of the region and New york City was
produced by Columbia University and is being updated in 2013.
Mitigation activities include the city giving an air
conditioning unit to those considered to be at risk. The city
surveys have established that 87% of the public have air
conditioning. The city is constantly trying to evaluate the best
way to activate an alert. Seasonal heat deaths in New York City are
a normal burden requiring long-term mitigation, excess heat deaths
are addressed by the advisory and warning system.
It was noted that public messaging requires further work. During
heatwaves television stations focus on youth activities, promoting
the benefits of shade. The group feel that vulnerable groups and
their protective measures should be shown. Unscripted messages on
reduction of power use to protect the grid also fail to prioritize
the need for vulnerable groups to continue using their air
conditioning.
Surveys have also identified that only 10 to 15% of the most
vulnerable utilise cooling centres. It would seem that these people
do not consider they are at risk. There is also evidence from
standardized tests that student performance during heatwaves is
impacted. Most schools are not air conditioned, which is an area
that will require investigation and possible mitigation.
29
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
Finally, New York City is a participant in the CDC’s Climate and
Health program. Federal funding is allocated to assist the city
develop their heat response capabilities.
Minnesota Department of Health (St Paul) and Minneapolis Health Department
Similar visits were paid to the Minnesota Department of Health
(MDH) and Minneapolis Health Department in the twin cities of St
Paul and Minneapolis over two days.
A diverse group of attendees were present at both meetings.
In St Paul the meeting included Kristin Raab (Climate &
Health Director, MDH), Jack Brondum (Epidemiologist, Hennepin
County), Deb Radi (Emergency Manager, MDH), Greg Spoden (State
Climatologist), Mark Seeley (Climatologist, University of
Minnesota), Todd Krause (Services Manager, National Weather
Service), Carol Hajicek (Vital Records, MDH), Katie Muehe (MN
Climate & Health Program, MDH). James Kelly (Manager, MDH), Dan
Symonik (Supervisor, MDH), Chris Greene (Exposure Scientist
(water), MDH), Janet Mengelkoch and D’Ana Tijerina (Emergency
response, City of Minneapolis).
It was interesting to learn that Minnesota was interested in the
new Australian heatwave methodology as a candidate for initiating
their heatwave response plan. Their investigations to date have
considered mean rate of hospitalisation against mean summer
temperatures. They next plan to examine what has happened during
particular heat events.
They have been assembling a toolkit to help planners within the
state29. This is a formidable training resource with fully scripted
slide presentations permitting train-the-trainer capabilities.
Video conferences are available to assist planners acquire
understanding. The tool kit includes a draft plan that can be
tailored to local use, a tip sheet, data sources, case study and
sample media release. Included is an extreme heat training module
supported by statewide data in spreadsheet or map formats that show
vulnerable populations and risk factors. Technical assistance is
also provided for how the user can work with this data in GIS
(spatial data) mapping format.
MDH have a workgroup to evaluate the work required to develop
and operate a Syndromic Surveillance System. This workgroup has
recognised that it is not possible to create this system with
current resources, but convenes to consider whether the investment
is worthwhile and what benefits could be realized. There are
connections available to a national and international work group
that is tackling climate change related events. It is possible to
sign up to a list server which currently has around 500
subscribers.
29 http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/
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In Minneapolis the meeting was attended by representatives of
the local Federal Emergency Management Authority (FEMA) contact
(emergency service director), managers of 311 (non-emergency
version of 911) and public health managers for community and
emergency preparedness.
This group identified that extreme heat planning commenced in
2006 and indicated that the twin cities are recognized to be in the
top 20 American cities for heat planning.
Weather Service Minneapolis (Chanhassen) It
was very rewarding to visit an operational NWS forecasting office,
to see operations that closely reflected Australia’s forecast
operations. In this environment it was easy to relate to the
operational issues faced by forecasters when considering the need
to release an extreme heat advisory or warning product. It was
clear that forecasters are uncomfortable using the air mass
technique (Kalkstein), which reaffirmed other appraisals. This
system provides an assessment of how many deaths per 10,000 should
be expected after the air mass technique was used. It was described
as time consuming and not a data type that weather forecasters were
confident in using. As a consequence it would seem that this advice
was normally heavily discounted or possibly ignored. Temperature
thresholds were normally used to make decisions, with consultations
with health authorities carried out at set criteria before products
were issued.
The Australian heatwave methodology was discussed with a local
manager who supported the utility of this form of decision tool. It
was considered to be the type of tool they would prefer to utilize
for extreme heat services.
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THANKS
I would like to thank The Winston Churchill Memorial Trust for
accepting my nomination and for their local induction program. The
value, opportunity and companionship of Churchill Fellows are an
ongoing asset in my endeavours.
I would like to thank The Bureau of Meteorology for supporting
this tour. Not every employer will permit their staff to draw
salary whilst conducting a Churchill Fellowship. I would encourage
other organisations to see the asset value of the knowledge
gained.
My sponsors Alasdair Hainsworth (Bureau of Meteorology) and
Roger Beale (PricewaterhouseCooper) endorsed my program. Their
support and belief enabled was important.
The generosity of my hosts was marvellous. It is wonderful to
find people on the other side of the world willing to introduce me
to their organisations, endure my questions and in turn offer their
thoughts on the state of heatwave impact science.
Arranging meetings was at times onerous for my hosts and I am
indebted for their perseverance and kindness. I would like to thank
the following people and assure them that I feel the time we spent
together as extremely valuable. I hope to repay any kindness if
asked.
1) Public Health England
Prof Virginia Murray, Sari Kovats, Aileen Kitching
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2) UK Met Office
Paul Davies
3) Deutches Wetterdienst
Christina Koppe, Jochen Blasing
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4) WHO Europe
Vladimir Kendrovski, Bettina Menne, Kerryn Mason (FSSA), Gerardo
Sánchez, Marina Ostheimer (intern CGS), James Creswick,
5) Centers for Disease Control
Eric Lahr, Gino Arinucci, Shubhayu Saha, Ambarish (Rish)
Vaidyanathan, George Luber, Paul Schramm (Jeremy Hess and Arie
Manangan).
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
6) Climate Prediction Center (NOAA) Wayne Higgins, Mike Halpert,
Jon Gottschalck, Dan Collins, Anthony Artusa, Brad Pugh, Richard
Tinker. Michelle L'heureux 7) National Weather Service (NOAA)
Michelle Hawkins, Juli Trtanj, Eli Jacks, Paul Stokols, Fiona
Horsfall, Wendy Marie Thomas, Jenna Meyers 8) NASA John Haynes 9)
National Institutes of Health John Balbus 10) New York City Dept
Health and Mental Hygiene
Kerryn Mason (FSSA), Katie Lane, Kizzy Charles-Guzman, Nathan
Graber, Kaz Ito, 11) Columbia University (NYC and Palisades) Radley
Horton, Alex Ruane, Jonathon Winter, Bradfield Lyon (IRI) and
Anthony Barnston (IRI).
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12) Minnesota Department of Health
Kristin Raab, Mark Seeley, Deb Radi, Jack Brondum, Greg Spoden,
Todd Krause, Carol Hajicek, James Kelly, Chris Greene, Katie Muehe,
Janet Mengelkoch and D’Ana Tijerina
13) Minneapolis Department of Health
Toni Hauser
14) Chanhassen Forecast Office (NWS), Minnesota Todd Krause.
John Nairn June 2013
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Appendix 1
NWS Heat Definitions and Alert Criteria
May 2013
Definitions
Extreme Heat Event or Heat wave
A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessive heat, often
combined with excessive humidity. Generally, excessive heat is
defined as temperatures that hover 10 degrees or more above the
average high temperature for the region during summer months, last
for a prolonged period of time, and often are accompanied by high
humidity.
Memorial Day generally marks the beginning of Excessive heat
season.
The Heat Index is used by NWS forecasters and others to help
forecast when extreme heat may be hazardous.
Heat Index
The heat index is the temperature the body feels when the
effects of heat and humidity are combined. Exposure to direct
sunlight can increase the heat index by up to 15̊F.
NWS Heat Policy From NWSI 10-51530 November 18, 2011
Non-Precipitation Weather Warning and Advisory Criteria WFOs will
issue non-precipitation weather warnings or advisories when
hazardous non-precipitation weather is occurring, imminent, or has
a high probability of occurrence over part or all of the forecast
area. WFOs should issue non-precipitation weather warnings and
advisories with as much lead time as possible for the first and
second period, and occasionally third or fourth forecast periods,
when there is an 80 percent or greater chance of a hazardous
non-precipitation weather event meeting or exceeding local warning,
advisory and/or impact criteria. Impact Criteria The following is
an example of impact vs. strict criteria: A Heat Wave is forecasted
but temperature and humidity combined will not meet traditional
heat index criteria. However, if it is early in the season or
unusually warm at night when the impact will likely be high, then a
Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat Warning might be warranted. The
forecaster has the discretion and should not be held back from
issuing what best mitigates the impending non-precipitation hazard
even if traditional criteria are not met. WFOs will coordinate with
adjacent WFOs regarding the warning type.
30 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005015curr.pdf
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Non-Precipitation Weather Products
WFOs will issue the following non-precipitation weather
products, as appropriate: Product Name
Description
Excessive Heat Watch Conditions are favourable for an excessive
heat event to meet or exceed local Excessive Heat Warning criteria
in the next 24 to 72 hours.
Heat Advisory *Heat Index values forecast to meet or exceed
locally defined advisory criteria for one to two days (Typical
values: 1) Maximum daytime HI>=100 F north to105 F south 2)
Minimum night-time lows>=75F).
Excessive Heat Warning *Heat Index (HI) values forecast to meet
or exceed locally defined warning criteria for at least two days
(Typical values: 1) Maximum daytime HI>=105 F north to110 F
south and 2) Minimum night-time lows >=75F).
* Note: The Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory criteria are
highly variable in different parts of the country due to climate
variability and the effect of excessive heat on the local
population. WFOs are strongly encouraged to develop local criteria
in cooperation with local emergency and health officials, and/or
utilize detailed heat/health warning systems based on scientific
research.
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Eastern Region Criteria (2012)
Heat – Eastern Region heat index criteria are based on national
guidelines associated with recommendations from the 1995 Chicago
Heat Service Assessment. Excessive heat products will be issued
when criteria are expected to be met for two hours or more. Heat
related criteria can be found on the Eastern Region Heat Thresholds
Maps below.
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Central Region Criteria (NWS CRS 06-2003 March 18, 2011)
Non-Precipitation Warning Criteria. Excessive Heat Warning – an
Excessive Heat Warning (NPW) should be issued when conditions are
observed or anticipated, and are expected to persist for at least a
48-hour period as seen in the graphic below. Several CR offices
have additional guidance available through Heat Health Warning
System algorithms. This tool is separate from the guidance criteria
established in this supplement. Blending all available guidance
into a cohesive decision making process is left to local
management.
Fig. 1. Central Region office groups for Excessive Heat Warning
Criteria Central Region Excessive Heat Warning criteria: 1. North
and Eastern (yellow shaded area)
磊 Max Heat Index (HI) around 105 F &
磊 Min HI around 75 F or higher
2. Central (red shaded area) 磊 Max HI around 110 F &
磊 Min HI around 75 F or higher
3. Western (green shaded area)* 磊 High Plains/Front
Range/Valleys
磊 Max HI around 105 F &
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Heatwaves: measurement and mitigation
磊 Min HI around 75 F or higher
Mountains Min HI around 75 F or higher
* WFO Grand Junction does not issue Excessive Heat Warnings for
their four Utah counties. If Advisory criteria are expected for 4
or more consecutive days, WFOs should issue an Excessive Heat
Warning. The use of the word ‘round’ conveys a range of +/- two
degrees on either side of the base criteria to give WFO forecasters
flexibility especially during marginal events. Base criteria may
also be adjusted, typically in urban areas, to match agreements
with health NWS CRS 06-2003 March 18, 2011 3 care partners.
Adjustments to base criteria should not be made for cities with
less than 200,000 people. Non-Precipitation Weather Advisories
(product category NPW). Non-Precipitation Weather Advisory
Products. Heat Advisory – a Heat Advisory should be issued when
conditions are observed or anticipated as seen in the graphic
below. Several CR offices have additional guidance available
through Heat Health Warning System algorithms. This tool is
separate from the guidance criteria established in this supplement.
Blending all available guidance into a cohesive decision making
process is left to local management.
Fig. 2. Central Region office groups for Heat Advisory Criteria
Central Region Heat Advisory criteria: 1. Northern and Eastern
(yellow shaded area) Max HI around 100 F or higher 2. Central (red
shaded area)
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Max HI around 105 F or higher
3. Western (green shaded area)* Plains/Front Range/Valleys
Max HI around 100 F or higher & Min HI around 75 F or
higher
Mountains
Max HI around 95 F or higher & Min HI around 75 F or
higher
* WFO Grand Junction will issue a Heat Advisory for their four
Utah counties when the Max HI is >= 105 F and the overnight
temperature is >=80 for at least two consecutive days. If
Advisory criteria are expected for 4 consecutive days or more, WFOs
should issue an Excessive Heat Warning. Longer durations of heat
conditions just under advisory criteria can also pose a risk to the
public. WFOs should collaborate with their neighbours and consider
issuing a heat advisory to cover these conditions if they are
expected to last for 4 consecutive days or more. These conditions
are: 1. Northern and Eastern (yellow shaded area)