Healthy People 2100: Scenarios of Demographic and Socioeconomic Change Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH [email protected] NCAR Summer Colloquium July 2006.

Healthy People 2100: Healthy People 2100: Scenarios of Demographic and Scenarios of Demographic and

Socioeconomic Change Socioeconomic Change

Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH

[email protected]

NCAR Summer ColloquiumJuly 2006

London All Cause Mortality by London All Cause Mortality by Mean Weekly TemperatureMean Weekly Temperature

Carson et al. 2006Carson et al. 2006

ScenariosScenarios

•Coherent, internally consistent depictions of pathways to possible futures based on assumptions about economic, ecological, social, political, and technological development

•Scenarios include:– Qualitative storylines that describe

assumptions about the initial state and the driving forces, events, and actions that lead to future conditions

– Models that quantify the storyline– Outputs that explore possible future outcomes

if assumptions are changed– Consideration of uncertainties

Global

Regional

EconomicSocial &

EnvironmentalA2

A1

B2

B1

IPCC/SRES Reference ScenariosIPCC/SRES Reference Scenarios

Population

Economy

Technology

Energy use

Land use

Environment

SRES: Population

Complete Globalization

Strong Regionalization

Em

ph

asis

on

mate

rial

wealth

Em

ph

asis

on

su

sta

inab

ility a

nd

eq

uity

World PopulationWorld Population

Population 2050Population 2050

SRES: Economic Growth

Complete Globalization

Strong Regionalization

Em

ph

asis

on

mate

rial

wealth

Em

ph

asis

on

su

sta

inab

ility a

nd

eq

uity

OECD Development Assistance OECD Development Assistance StatisticsStatistics

1987-1988

average

1992-1993

average

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

I. Official Development Assistance of which

43 834 58 318 53 233 53 749 52 435 58

292 69

029

Emergency and distress relief 704 2 918 4 414 3 574 3 276 3 869 5 874

Emergency & distress relief as % of total

1,61 5,00 8,29 6,65 6,25 6,64 8,51

Health In MA ScenariosHealth In MA Scenarios

Scenario Health Gap

Possible Outcome

High Income Low Income

Global orchestration

Low Continued improvements; new medical technology

Malnutrition, infectious and chronic diseases

Techno-garden

Lower

Improvements in population health

New vaccines, increased food security

Adapting mosaic

Lowest

Less diabetes, obesity, chronic disease

Rapid improvement, elimination of hunger

Order from Strength

High Increased obesity and diabetes; better medical technology

Epidemics, poor health care access, famine, conflict

Climate Change & Malaria: Climate Change & Malaria: Analysis of the SRES Climate & Analysis of the SRES Climate &

Socio-Economic ScenariosSocio-Economic ScenariosVan Lieshout et al. 2004Van Lieshout et al. 2004

• MIASMA 2.2• HadCM3 with A1F1, A2, B1, B2• 0.5° by 0.5° grid

– Downscaled to national level– Re-aggregated by region

• Expert judgment of adaptive capacity (SES, current malaria control)

ResultsResults

• Malaria increases– Hot spots (due to confluence of

climate and adaptive capacity)– Fringe of its current distribution– Where current control is poor– 90 to 200 million by 2080s

• Malaria decreases where precipitation decreases

• Endemic areas largely not affected

YLL trajectories in I ndia for the four SRES storylines

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120

Year

Ra

te p

er

tho

us

an

d

B1

B2

A1

A2

Pitcher et al. in press

Thank YouThank You

Elderly (65+)Elderly (65+)