Health Impacts of Climate Change “ Climate Change is the biggest global health threat of the 21 st Century” Lancet, 2009
Jan 20, 2016
Health Impacts of Climate Change
“ Climate Change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st Century”
Lancet, 2009
Doctors for the Environment, Australia (DEA) is a voluntary, doctor’s organisation, formed in 2001, with members in all States and Territories. The aim of the organisation is to inform and educate the public, the medical profession and policy makers about the relationships between health and the environment. Our priority issue at the present time is the health effects of climate change. DEA is a member of the International Society of Doctors for the Environment.
Scientific committee: Prof. Stephen Boyden AMProf. Peter Doherty ACProf. Bob Douglas AOProf. Frank Fenner ACProf. Michael Kidd AMProf. Steve Leeder AO Prof. Ian Lowe AOProf. Tony Mc MichaelProf. Peter NewmanSir Gustav Nossal ACProf. Hugh PossinghamProf. Lawrie Powell ACProf. Fiona Stanley ACNorman SwanProf. David Yencken AO
Overview: Science of climate change Health effects of climate change Case for urgent action Solutions
Climate Science 101 The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
causes the trapping of heat from the sun hence a rise in the temperature of the earth’s climate
Greenhouse gases include CO2, water vapour, methane and nitrous oxide
The increase in temperature is proportional to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
CO2 concentration has increased from: Pre-industrial- 280ppm 1958- 316ppm 2008- 387ppm
Average global temperature rise so far 0.76 deg C
The Greenhouse EffectThe Greenhouse Effect
Solar energy passes through
Radiant heat is trapped
Greenhouse gases in atmosphere
Source: Williams DL. Global Warming: The Greatest Threat. Alaska Conservation Solutions, 2006.
The Earth is WarmingThe Earth is Warming
Brohan 2006
CO2 = temperature
The increase in temperature is proportional to the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere
CO2 increase over time
IPCC 1990
Per capita emissions due to electricity, 2005
Source: IEA; Department of Climate Change
Current impacts at 0.76 deg rise
Arctic: The floating sea-ice is headed towards rapid
summer disintegration as early as 2013, a century ahead of the IPCC projections
“albedo flip” as described by James Hansen (NASA) leads to a positive feedback loop as the arctic sea warms
Greenland ice sheet melt and thawing of permafrost predicted for this century
Revkin, 2007Hansen et al, 2007Hansen, 2006Westbrook et al, 2009
Ice-free summer as early as 2013?
Beck,A. 2007
Current impacts at 0.76 deg riseCurrent impacts at 0.76 deg rise
Victoria: Hottest day ever recorded 7th Feb. 2009 Driest start to year for 150years 2009 Record 12 year low rainfall Fire danger rating for Victoria on 7th Feb. 2009
ranged between 120-190 (previous record was Black Saturday in 1939 of 100) where 100=catastrophic rating
374 deaths from heat stress in first week of Feb.
David Karoly. 16/2/09
January 2009 heatwave in Victoria report-Chief Health Officer, Victoria.
Water storages at lowest point ever
How Doctors assess risk and make decisions: Scenario One Hx:25 yo male presents
with 24hr history of central abdominal pain localizing to RIF. Associated with anorexia, nausea, fever
Ex: T 37.5 deg C pr 120 rebound tenderness over Mc Burney’s point
Ix: high wcc & crp
Dx: appendicitis
Scenario Two Hx: increasing frequency of
severe weather events, changing patterns of plant and animal behaviour
Ex: loss of polar sea ice, global glacial retreat, increase in earth’s temperature, rising sea levels and acidification of ocean
Ix: atmospheric CO2 increasing at rate proportional to increase in earth’s temperature
Dx: climate change Anthropogenic climate change is now
incontrovertibleLancet
Comparison of risks
Scenario One Scenario Two
Provisional Dx Appendicitis Climate Change
Diagnostic Certainty
10-90% >90%
Risk of inactionRuptured appendix
DeathExtinction of
human species
Risk of actionOperative risk for
incorrect Dx???? ECONOMIC
Health effects of climate change Changing patterns of disease Water and food insecurity Vulnerable shelter and human settlements Extreme climate events Population migration
These effects are both direct and indirect
Changing patterns of disease
Vector borne disease increases with temperature temperature is vector
reproduction; parasite development and bite frequency
increase in malaria, tick-borne encephalitis and dengue fever
Heatwaves increase death due to heat stress ie. Europe summer 2003-
70,000 deaths Lancet, 2009
Mosquito abundance increases by a factor of 10 for every 0.1 deg C increase in temperature
Water and food insecurity Famine:
Climate change is likely to compound existing food insecurityFood emergencies have increased from 15/year in 80’s to >30/year : UN World Food Program
Corn and soybean yields in USA reduced by 17% for every 1 deg C temp rise
Drought: 1/6 world population live in glacial fed water
catchments which are vulnerable to climate change increased water temp and reduced water flow lead to
reduced water qualityLancet, 2009
Vulnerable Shelter and Human Settlements
Due to abandonment of flooded or arid land
United Nations 2006 revision of population predicts movement from climate affected lands in developing countries to developed countries to be 2.3 million every year after 2010
Number of climate change related migrants expected to be 100’s of millions by 2050
Extreme climate events Floods
Related infectious diseases ie. cholera, dengue, malaria, leptospirosis increased after hurricane in Nicuragua in 1998
Reduction in water quality and sanitation Loss of property, farmlands, direct loss of life Psychological trauma
Cyclones and hurricanes Direct loss of life, property, farmlands Reduction in water quality and sanitation Psychological trauma
Bushfires Direct loss of life, property, farmlands Psychological trauma
Heatwaves
Psychological effects Direct
Grief as reaction to loss; PTSD
Indirect Depression, anxiety
in the face of dire predictions
Moral issues Climate change raises the moral issues of :
Intergenerational justice Health equity
ie. those responsible for historical CO2 (rich) are less likely to suffer than the poor
“ On a balance of probabilities, the failure of our generation on climate change mitigation would lead to consequences that would haunt humanity until the end of time.” Garnaut, 2008
Health impacts of climate change
Density equalling cartogram. WHO regions scaled according to estimated mortality (per million people) in the year 2000, attributable to the climate change that occurred from 1970s to 2000. Patz et al, in press
Emissions of greenhouse gases
Density equalling cartogram. Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon equivalent in 2002. Patz et al
Solutions Mitigation:
move to post carbon economy Draw down CO2 to achieve a “safe climate” with
a CO2 of 350ppm
Adaptation Improve education amongst doctors of current
climate science, health impacts and solutions Move to develop skill share and educational
relationships with the developing world
Primary Health Care Strategies
Blashki McMichael Karoly 2007
Danger
Opportunity
Solutions Our capacity to respond to the negative effects
of climate change relies on the generation of reliable, relevant and current information
“There’s a call for a public health movement that frames the threat of climate change for humankind as a health issue.” Lancet 2009
Video... There is also a fantastic video relating to the
effects of climate change available for viewing or dowload - Click here after reading directions below.There are two versions available, one for Windows (the .wmv file) and one for Mac (the .mp4 file). To download simply right-click the appropriate version and select "Download linked file as..." (or an equivalent command).