Central Bank of Egypt Monthly Inflation Development 1/ Published by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. 2/ Computed by the Central Bank of Egypt. 3/ CAPMAS publishes three CPI series: (1) the CPI for urban areas which include Cairo, Alexandria, urban Lower Egypt, urban Upper Egypt, Canal cities and Frontier governorates, (2) the CPI for rural areas, and (3) the CPI for All areas. Numbers quoted in this note refer to CPI-Urban. 4/ It is important to underscore that the monthly percentage changes of both headline and core CPI between September 2009 and July 2010 do not match rates of changes presented in previous inflation notes given the replacement of the 8 th CPI series by the 9th series starting from August 2009 (Full details are discussed in the Technical Appendix of the August 2010 Inflation Note). 1 Headline and Core Inflation – June 2019 Annual headline urban inflation 1/ declined to 9.4 percent in June 2019 from 14.1 percent in May 2019, to record the lowest rate in more than three years. This decline was supported by strong favorable base effects, as monthly inflation recorded negative 0.8 percent in June 2019 compared to positive 3.5 percent in the same month of previous year, which incorporated the impact of the implemented fiscal consolidation measures in June 2018. Consumer price developments during June 2019 show declines in food prices, mainly volatile food due to lower prices of tomatoes and potatoes, while core food prices declined somewhat, mainly due to lower poultry prices. On the other hand, prices of services increased, mainly due to seasonally higher pilgrimage prices, while prices of retail items increased slightly, mainly due to clothing prices. Meanwhile, regulated prices remained unchanged . Against this background, monthly core inflation 2/ recorded 0.3 percent in June 2019 compared to 1.6 percent in June 2018, and annual core inflation declined to 6.4 percent in June 2019 from 7.8 percent in May 2019, also strongly supported by favorable base effects. Thus, annual core inflation recorded the lowest figure since October 2015 and continued to record single digits for twelve consecutive months. Meanwhile, nationwide annual inflation 1/ declined to 8.9 percent in June 2019 from 13.2 percent in May 2019, as rural annual inflation 1/ declined to 8.4 percent in June 2019 from 12.3 percent in May 2019. Headline and Core CPI Inflation 3/4/ (m/m, in percent) Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and Central Bank of Egypt. Headline and Core CPI Inflation 3/4/ (y/y, in percent) Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and Central Bank of Egypt. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Headline CPI Core CPI 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 CPI - All Items (100%) CPI excl. regulated items, fruits & vegetables (74.43%)
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Headline and Core Inflation June 2019 · Headline and Core Inflation – June 2019 Annual headline urban inflation1/ declined to 9.4 percent in June 2019 from 14.1 percent in May
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Central Bank of Egypt Monthly Inflation Development
1/ Published by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.
2/ Computed by the Central Bank of Egypt.
3/ CAPMAS publishes three CPI series: (1) the CPI for urban areas which include Cairo, Alexandria, urban Lower Egypt, urban Upper Egypt, Canal cities and Frontier governorates, (2) the CPI for rural areas, and (3) the CPI for All areas. Numbers quoted in this note refer to CPI-Urban.
4/ It is important to underscore that the monthly percentage changes of both headline and core CPI between September 2009 and July 2010 do not match rates of changes presented in previous inflation notes given the replacement of the 8th CPI series by the 9th series starting from August 2009 (Full details are discussed in the Technical Appendix of the August 2010 Inflation Note).
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Headline and Core Inflation – June 2019 Annual headline urban inflation1/ declined to 9.4 percent in June 2019 from 14.1 percent in
May 2019, to record the lowest rate in more than three years. This decline was supported by strong favorable base effects, as monthly inflation recorded negative 0.8 percent in June 2019 compared to positive 3.5 percent in the same month of previous year, which incorporated the impact of the implemented fiscal consolidation measures in June 2018.
Consumer price developments during June 2019 show declines in food prices, mainly volatile food due to lower prices of tomatoes and potatoes, while core food prices declined somewhat, mainly due to lower poultry prices. On the other hand, prices of services increased, mainly due to seasonally higher pilgrimage prices, while prices of retail items increased slightly, mainly due to clothing prices. Meanwhile, regulated prices remained unchanged .
Against this background, monthly core inflation2/ recorded 0.3 percent in June 2019 compared to 1.6 percent in June 2018, and annual core inflation declined to 6.4 percent in June 2019 from 7.8 percent in May 2019, also strongly supported by favorable base effects. Thus, annual core inflation recorded the lowest figure since October 2015 and continued to record single digits for twelve consecutive months.
Meanwhile, nationwide annual inflation1/ declined to 8.9 percent in June 2019 from 13.2 percent in May 2019, as rural annual inflation1/ declined to 8.4 percent in June 2019 from 12.3 percent in May 2019.
Headline and Core CPI Inflation 3/4/
(m/m, in percent)
Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and Central Bank of Egypt.
Headline and Core CPI Inflation 3/4/ (y/y, in percent)
Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and Central Bank of Egypt.