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If India can get back to 8 plus percent GDP growth, India's 2 trillion dollar economy can grow to 4 trillion dollars by 2020 and 10 trillion dollars around 2030 - making it the world's third largest economy ahead of Japan. If India remains at 4-5 percent growth it will only be at best a 4-5 trillion dollar economy by 2030 and be stuck in a middle income trap, with low job growth and still large numbers of poor - a sure fire recipe for social and communal problems.
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HE A. Manickam - Ambassador of India to Finland

Jun 19, 2015

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Aalto Global Impact organized together with the New Global an event called Co-creating Business Ecosystems in Emerging Markets on 17th of June. The event was hosted by Fortum.
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Page 1: HE A. Manickam - Ambassador of India to Finland

•  If India can get back to 8 plus percent GDP growth, India's 2 trillion dollar economy can grow to 4 trillion dollars by 2020 and 10 trillion dollars around 2030 - making it the world's third largest economy ahead of Japan.

•  If India remains at 4-5 percent growth it will only be at

best a 4-5 trillion dollar economy by 2030 and be stuck in a middle income trap, with low job growth and still large numbers of poor - a sure fire recipe for social and communal problems.

Page 2: HE A. Manickam - Ambassador of India to Finland

}  To revive the economy back to plus 8 percent - India desperately needs second generation factor market (land, labour, capital market) reforms and better infrastructure.

}  These reforms are also central to restoring India's competitiveness.

}  Reforms in land acquisition, labour laws and transparent competitive allocation

of natural resources combined with good infrastructure will attract the investment and technology India needs to be more competitive and create 10 million plus new jobs every year.

}  These factor market reforms cannot only be driven by the central government

but require the active involvement of state governments. }  What makes this electoral mandate exciting is that the BJP's victory spreads

across many states and it's strong mandate should encourage central state cooperation, vital for the next stage of reforms including adoption of the GST.

Page 3: HE A. Manickam - Ambassador of India to Finland

}  Fixing the recently legislated land acquisition law or reforming arcane labour laws will not be easy.

}  One option here is to allow states to experiment with land and

labour reforms. }  These state level experiments will generate more innovative

solutions for reform. }  On infrastructure India will need central level involvement - just

state level actions will not be enough. }  A national master plan for transport, energy and communications

- a Rosenstein Rodan style big push is needed like we saw in the previous BJP government - but on an even bigger scale as our infrastructure deficit is much larger today.

Page 4: HE A. Manickam - Ambassador of India to Finland

}  Banking and capital market reforms are also badly needed. }  India has for long prided itself on its safe and conservative

largely public sector owned banking system. }  But with rising NPA's and evidence of connected lending the

banking system looks badly troubled and hugely exposed to struggling infrastructure projects, which should have been financed by long term finance not deposit taking banks.

}  Access to finance for employment generating SMEs remains

hugely restricted while large corporates with capital intensive projects take up the bulk of bank lending.

Page 5: HE A. Manickam - Ambassador of India to Finland

  }  For natural resources more innovative approaches to

leasing, tr ibal equity ownership in mining and environmental stewardship with dedicated development trust funds are needed to accelerate use of our natural resources while protecting the interests of tribal and local communities.

}  Any other way is fraught with seeds of conflict and delays

that no developing country has been able to avoid. }  We have seen such problems in our tribal belt with a

Maoist insurgency that has persisted despite the government’s efforts to contain it.

Page 6: HE A. Manickam - Ambassador of India to Finland

}  A stable government should now be able to tackle difficult second generation reforms.

}  The 2014 mandate is a bet by an aspirational India for

a 10 trillion dollar economy by 2030 and India's emergence as an economic powerhouse.

}  India's election called "the undocumented wonder" has

given the people of India the chance for better governance with which to shape their destiny.

}  It's a bet India can and must win.