Retail Research 1 Key In di ces Ja n 14 % Ch g Sensex 21033 -0.48 Nifty 6242 -0.49 BSE 500 7734 -0.39 DJIA* 16374 +0.71 Nasdaq* 4183 +1.69 MSCI Em er gin g Ma rk et s* 97 5 -0 .2 2 MSCI AC Pacific* 136 -1.53 MSCI World* 1652 +0.38 *= in USD Sectoral Indices Jan 14 % Chg Major Gainers BSE Healthcare 10245 +0.66 BSE Oil & Gas 8748 +0.08 Major Losers BSE Metal 9422 -1.41 BSE Realty 1338 -1.40 Top Gainers (BSE-100) CMP (Rs) % Chg Cummins India 471.00 +4.03 Adani Enterprises 243.80 +3.48 Idea Cellular 167.25 +2.95 Top Losers (BSE-100) CMP (Rs) % Chg Zee Entertainment 285.05 -3.45 Tata Steel 374.90 -2.91 PFC 148.95 -2.65 52 Week High Price (Rs) Dr.Reddys 2660.00 P&G 3220.00 52 Week Low Price (Rs) Star Delta Transf 79.25 Unitech 13.30 Turnover (Rs bn) NSE BSE Jan 14 88.48 16.86 5 days avera ge 111.92 21.41 Advance-Decline NSE BSE Jan 14 0.65:1 0.81:1 5 day s aver ag e 0 .5 6: 1 0 .8 2: 1 Volatility Index (ViX) Nifty CBOE Jan 14 15.74 12.28 5 days avera ge 15.95 12.73 nterest Rates 3 month Chg bps LIBOR – UK 0.52 0.00 LIBOR – USA 0.24 0.00 LIBOR – Europe 0.26 0.00 Exchan ge Rates Value % Chg USD/INR - - USD/EURO 0.73 -0.07 USD/YEN 104.22 +1.23 USD/POUND 0.61 -0.31 Other# Value % Chg RJ/CRB Index 276.77 + 0. 24 Gold ($ / Oz) 1245.40 -0.46 Cr ud e Oil ($ / Ba rr el ) 92 .5 9 +0 .8 6 Market Round Up January 15 ,2014Indian Markets •The BSE Sensex and the NS E Nifty closed the session in negative territory on Tuesday. The Sensex ended the day at 21,032.88, down 101.33 points or 0.5% and the Nifty closed at 6,241.9, down 30.9 points or 0.5%. •It was a one sided day on Dalal Street as all the major benchmark indices closing in the red. BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices lost 0.32% and 0.2% respectively. Market breadth was negative, as the A/D ratio was 0.81:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.8848 crs. vs. Rs.10528 crs. on Monday. •All the BSE sectoral indices w ith the exception of oil and gas and healthcare were in the red. The prominent losers were the realty (down 1.31), metal (1.36), consumer durables (0.75), banking (0.55), TECk (0.56) and IT (0.57) indices. The top gainers on the BSE were Cipla, Dr Reddy's, Infosys, Coal India and Hero, while the top losers were Wipro, HUL, ICICI Bank, TCS and SSLT. •As per the provisional figures on Tuesday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 261 cr in the cash market, while they were net sellers of Rs. 287 cr in the F&O markets. DIIs were net sellers of Rs. 98 cr in the cash market. US and European Markets •Stocks bounced back Tuesday as investors c heered results from some of the nation's largest financial institutions and also showed enthusiasm about the tech sector. •The Dow jumped 115 po ints, while the S&P 5 00 and Nasdaq also ended higher. •After a sharp sell-off Monday, investors turned to bank earnings to get a sense of the economy's health. •Investors are still digesting Friday's jobs r eport, which showed a big slowd own in job creation in the final month of 2013. Despite the lousy jobs news, stocks managed to end higher Friday as investors generally believe the economy will continue to improve in 2014. •The European markets finished Tuesday's session with mixed results. DAX of Germany climbed by 0.3% and CAC 40 of France advanced by 0.3%. FTSE 100 of U.K. gained 0.1%. • Barring ICICI Bank, which ended lower by 1%, all the other Indian ADRs ended in the green. Infosys & Tata Motors ended higher by 1.9% & 1.4% respectively, while Dr. Reddy’s ended higher by 0.4%. HDFC Bank & Wipro ended flat. Latin American Markets •Among the Latin American markets, the Mexican markets ended higher by 0.7%, while the Brazilian markets gained 0.6%. Asian Markets •Barring Shanghai, which is trading lower by 0.4%, all the other Asian indic es are trading in the green. Nikkei is a top gainer, up 1.8%. Strait Times & Hang Seng are up by 0.5% each, while Kospi & Taiwan are up by 0.4% & 0.7% respectively. •As of IST 8.25 am SG X Nifty is trading higher by 8 points. Currencies•The euro was little changed against the US Dollar on Tuesd ay after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose more strongly than expected in December, bolstering expectations that the economic recovery will continue to strengthen. •The Japanese Yen fell the most in four weeks ve rsus its US Dollar after a government report showed Japan’s current-account deficit widened to a record in November. Commodities •Oil for Feb 2 014 contract ro se by 0.9% at $92.59/barrel. •Gold for February 2014 delivery fell by 0.5% to $1,245.4/troy ounce. Key Events for today •India – WPI Inflation ( Y-o-Y Chg ) •China – Retail Sales, Industrial Production, GDP •EMU – Merchandise Trade •Switzerland – Adjusted real retail sales •US – MBA Purchase Applications, PPI, Empire State Mfg Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report Outlook Indian markets could open marginally in the green and remain volatile in range of plus / minus 25 points on Nifty throughout the session. Immediate support for Nifty is at 6190, while resistance is at 6325 levels. Among the sector indices, Healthcare, Auto & IT look good and could outperform. However, Realty & Consumer Durables could witness selling pressure. For fresh and / or open calls refer t o page 4 Morning Note
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• The BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty closed the session in negative territory on Tuesday. TheSensex ended the day at 21,032.88, down 101.33 points or 0.5% and the Nifty closed at6,241.9, down 30.9 points or 0.5%.
• It was a one sided day on Dalal Street as all the major benchmark indices closing in the red.
BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices lost 0.32% and 0.2% respectively. Market breadth wasnegative, as the A/D ratio was 0.81:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.8848 crs. vs.Rs.10528 crs. on Monday.
• All the BSE sectoral indices with the exception of oil and gas and healthcare were in the red.The prominent losers were the realty (down 1.31), metal (1.36), consumer durables (0.75),banking (0.55), TECk (0.56) and IT (0.57) indices. The top gainers on the BSE were Cipla, DrReddy's, Infosys, Coal India and Hero, while the top losers were Wipro, HUL, ICICI Bank,TCS and SSLT.
• As per the provisional figures on Tuesday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 261 cr in the cashmarket, while they were net sellers of Rs. 287 cr in the F&O markets. DIIs were net sellers ofRs. 98 cr in the cash market.
US and European Markets
• Stocks bounced back Tuesday as investors cheered results from some of the nation's largestfinancial institutions and also showed enthusiasm about the tech sector.
• The Dow jumped 115 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also ended higher.•
After a sharp sell-off Monday, investors turned to bank earnings to get a sense of theeconomy's health.• Investors are still digesting Friday's jobs report, which showed a big slowdown in job creation
in the final month of 2013. Despite the lousy jobs news, stocks managed to end higher Fridayas investors generally believe the economy will continue to improve in 2014.
• The European markets finished Tuesday's session with mixed results. DAX of Germanyclimbed by 0.3% and CAC 40 of France advanced by 0.3%. FTSE 100 of U.K. gained 0.1%.
• Barring ICICI Bank, which ended lower by 1%, all the other Indian ADRs ended in the green.Infosys & Tata Motors ended higher by 1.9% & 1.4% respectively, while Dr. Reddy’s endedhigher by 0.4%. HDFC Bank & Wipro ended flat.
Latin American Markets
• Among the Latin American markets, the Mexican markets ended higher by 0.7%, while theBrazilian markets gained 0.6%.
Asian Markets
• Barring Shanghai, which is trading lower by 0.4%, all the other Asian indices are trading in the
green. Nikkei is a top gainer, up 1.8%. Strait Times & Hang Seng are up by 0.5% each, whileKospi & Taiwan are up by 0.4% & 0.7% respectively.
• As of IST 8.25 am SGX Nifty is trading higher by 8 points.
Currencies • The euro was little changed against the US Dollar on Tuesday after data showed that U.S.
retail sales rose more strongly than expected in December, bolstering expectations that theeconomic recovery will continue to strengthen.
• The Japanese Yen fell the most in four weeks versus its US Dollar after a government reportshowed Japan’s current-account deficit widened to a record in November.
Commodities
• Oil for Feb 2014 contract rose by 0.9% at $92.59/barrel.• Gold for February 2014 delivery fell by 0.5% to $1,245.4/troy ounce.
Key Events for today
• India – WPI Inflation (Y-o-Y Chg)• China – Retail Sales, Industrial Production, GDP• EMU – Merchandise Trade• Switzerland – Adjusted real retail sales• US – MBA Purchase Applications, PPI, Empire State Mfg Survey, EIA Petroleum Status
Report
OutlookIndian markets could open marginally in the green and remain volatile in range of plus / minus25 points on Nifty throughout the session. Immediate support for Nifty is at 6190, whileresistance is at 6325 levels. Among the sector indices, Healthcare, Auto & IT look good andcould outperform. However, Realty & Consumer Durables could witness selling pressure.
January 2014, the Sensex opened at 21,115, made an intraday high at 21,155 where it witnessed selling and startcoming down. It made an intraday low at 21,009 and finally closed at 21,033.
• The Sensex formed an ‘Inside’ day which does not have any predictive value.• The Sensex formed a ‘Harami White’ pattern on the daily charts which suggests that the current uptrend will take a breath
before moving up further. In short sideways move is expected.• The confirmation of the uptrend can only be obtained when the Sensex will be able to breach the 0-b line which is drawn on t
A Harami formation indicates loss of momentum and often warns of reversal after a strong trend. Harami means 'pregnant' which isquite descriptive. The second candlestick must be contained within the body of the first, though the shadows may protrude slightly.
The upward move from 20,739 to 21,169 took 13 half hours which is a Fibonacci number and in the next 13 half hours it was retracedby 38.2% which is also a Fibonacci time. And in spite of taking the same amount of time the retracement is very minimal.
We feel the current uptrend which is of just 1 trading session can retrace up to 20,854, 20,903 as marked on the chart above.
For forthcoming Board Meeting on Jan 15, 2014Click on the following linkhttp://www.bseindia.com/mktlive/board_meeting.asp#1
News Flash January 15, 2014
Economy News
• Continuing the downward trend for the fifth year in a row, India’s iron ore exportsdeclined 52.5% to 14.1 million tonnes for the calendar year 2013 (CY13). This
includes 820,000 tonnes of iron ore pellets. In CY2012, the country’s exports stoodat 29.7 million tonnes.
• India may cut Iranian oil imports by 15% in 2014-15 from the current fiscal year'starget, if western sanctions on Iran are not eased and the situation remains thesame.
• In a bid to attract more global oil majors, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gashas proposed exemption from royalty payment and an income-tax holiday of up to10 years for the next round of auction of oil and gas exploration blocks.
• Government could ease restrictions that prevent domestic airlines from flying oninternational services within a month, potentially benefitting start-ups set up bySingapore Airlines and Malaysia's AirAsia that aim to begin operations in 2014.
• India continues to suffer from low, but improving, levels of economic freedom, thelatest Index of Economic Freedom ranks the nation 120th globally and 25th among43 countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Corporate News
• State-owned NMDC has kept iron ore prices, for both lumps and fines varieties,unchanged for January even as domestic steel producers jacked up rates earlierthis month.
• State-run GAIL India Ltd plans to strike a “time-swap” deal with US shale gassuppliers so that it can import shale gas by 2015-16, ahead of 2017-18 for whichcontracts are in place.
•
Cairn India Ltd will spend up to Rs 5,725 crore to buy back shares to give himgreater control over the nation's largest private oil producer.
• ONGC Ltd signed a memorandum of understanding with Kuwait PetroleumCorporation for upstream, downstream and mid-stream ventures.
• Stating that the media industry is looking up after a long bad patch, diversifiedmedia group Network18 has announced launch of a slew of initiatives, including aGujarati business news channel and its second general entertainment channel.
Bulk Deals
Scrip Name Quantity (in lakhs) Fund Name PriceSOUTHERN ISP +7.78 CHERRY COSMETICS PRIVATE LIMITED 2.73Visa Steel -5.55 DALMIA SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED 18.66
Key Corporate Action
SCRIP NAME BC/RDBC/RDFROM EX-DATE PURPOSE
SIEMENS LTD BC 17/01/2014 15/01/2014 A.G.M., 250% Dividend
Nifty Spot (L.H.S) Futures OI (R.H.S) Futures Near (R.H.S)
Nifty Spot wi th Nifty Near Month Fut and Nifty Fut OI1,00,000 Units
Market Outlook: In coming session, if Nifty sustains & trade above 6240 level then traders may see Nifty rising upto 6280level. Nifty 6200 Put shows maximum OI (near the strike price) where most of traders has written put options expecting Nifty totake support at this level. Traders could watch for 6300 Call, as OI in the strike price was on the higher side. If in today’ssession traders saw winding up of position in this strike price then traders may expect continuation of up move. If Nifty sustainsbelow 6240 level for 15 mins then traders may see 6180 level. PCR is currently at 0.97 level
Market Wrap & Outlook
Nifty
Nifty Index
Near Basis
C-o-C
Fut(OI)*
Fut(Vol)*
Fut(Vol)**
OI/Vol
6,241.85
14.65
5.35
401,684
164,507
5,154.49
14-Jan-14
2.44
* - cont racts ** - Crores
1.06 1.07
13.70
16.06
11.61
PCR OIPCR Vol
IV Call
IV Put
Hist.Vot
Nifty Sentiment Indicators
13-Jan-14
6,272.75
12.55
4.30
397,911
266,415
8,342.30
1.49
1.12 1.06
14.00
16.54
11.48
6,171.45
6.80
2.01
379,839
349,797
10,863.64
10-Jan-14
1.09
0.97 1.01
13.71
15.61
6.89
6,162.25
33.60
8.65
385,928
268,832
8,339.93
7-Jan-14
1.44
0.96 0.98
14.74
16.33
7.80
6,154.70
25.00
14.83
540,414
5,965.74
192,690
16-Dec-13
2.80
1.01 0.91
18.01
19.42 14.74
6,278.90
0.45
10.90
398,803
468,698
14,789.54
0.85
0.921.03
12.72
15.02
14.88
Last Expiry
-30.90 -0.49
2.10 16.73
0.79 17.31
3,773 0.95
-3,187.82
-38.25
0.95 63.48
Chg
(T -(T-1))
Chg
(T -(T-1)) %
-38.21
-101,908
-0.06 0.00
-0.30
-0.47
0.14
-5.58 0.21
-2.15
-2.86
1.18
Nifty Synopsis
Daily
Index Snapshots
Vol (Cont) Vol (Cont) OI (Cont) OI (Cont) Vol (Crs.) Vol (Crs.) OI (Crs) OI (Crs.)
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant f or sole use by the recipient and not forcirculation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others.It should not be considered to be taken as an
offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable.We do not representthat it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buyand sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any
company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for Retail Clients only and not f or any other category of clients, including,but not limited to, Institutional Clients.
HDFC Securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building -B, ”Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves,Kanjurmarg (East),Mumbai 400 042.
Strike Vol OI Chg In OIScrip
UNITECH 15 727150 -13
APOLLOTYRE 83 4890 0
JPASSOCIAT 50 29185 -1
Most Active Stock Options (Contracts)
Put OptionsCall Options
Most Active Near Month Futures
Scrip OI Chg In OI(%)
UNITECH 1.6311,532
RPOWER -0.7311,224
GMRINFRA 0.007,623
JPASSOCIAT 0.817,312
IFCI 0.554,612
Nifty Spot with IV and HV
Nifty Spot (L.H.S) Nifty IV (R.H.S) Nifty HV (R.H.S)
Scrip Price % Chg %Del 5DMA
SRTRANSFIN 605.65 1,976.34-0.51 88.24
SUNPHARMA 603.55 69.820.20 84.37
NTPC 131.25 263.38-1.13 76.10
HDFC 824.35 74.150.70 71.72
OFSS 3,240.90 45.04-0.33 70.98
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Primer of terms used:Open Interest (OI) - The total number of futures and/or options contracts that are open, undelivered or unsettled on aparticular day. Basis - The difference between the futures price and the spot price of the underlying expressed in terms of basis points i.e.
bps.Put Call Ratio (PCR) -.The ratio of the trading volume or OI of put optionsto call options. A high volume of puts compared to calls indicatesa bearish sentiment in the market and vise-versa.Cost of Carry (CoC) - It explains the relationship between the futures price and the spotprice. It can be defined as interest + storage cost - income earned.It is calculated as an annualised percentage. Implied Volatility (IV) -
Implied volat ility (IV) measures the market's expected best guess of future volatility of the underlying. It is calculated using the marketprice of an option, along with other inputs used in price models, and then solving for volatility.Historical Volatility (HV) - The realized volatilityof the underlying over a given time period. It can be calculated simply by taking the past prices and price changes (from close to
close), then taking an average of those price changes in percentage terms over a period of time, and subtracting the daily percentageprice changes from this average change to derive deviations from the daily average change for a period. Moving Average - The averageprice of a security over a specified time period (the most common being 5,13, 34, 89 and 200 days), used in order to spot pricing trends by