HDFC sec note - Global funds - SWOT Analysis - Oct 03, 2013

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Global Funds – SWOT Analysis

Mutual Fund Category Analysis October 03, 2013

Global funds are Indian mutual fund schemes allocating their maximum assets in global equities. Some schemes are investing directly in international markets while some schemes are investing in the international mutual funds.

High risk appetite investors who wish to add geographical diversification to their portfolio can consider investing in the category with minimum investment horizon of three years or so.

Global funds are better diversified investment options as international markets have low correlation with Indian equity market. Further, they help to invest in global leading companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Coca-Cola etc.

Weakening of rupee or of any currency against the dollar helps the global funds in generating higher returns and vice versa.

Global funds are high on expenses. The fund of funds schemes have to bear double expenses while the schemes that invest directly tend to cost more to buy and research stocks abroad.


II. Basic Details:

I. Prologue: Global mutual funds category (Indian mutual funds that invest mainly in global companies) have come into limelight in present days given their outperforming returns in comparison to the domestic market, all thanks to the persistent depreciation in the value of domestic currency against the dollar. The top performing schemes from the category posted returns ranging 40-45% in the last one year period (as of 26 Sep).

It seemed most Indian investors have not utilized this opportunity to capitalize from the category mainly due to unawareness and the skepticism over the certainty of getting higher or regular returns from these funds. Even well informed investors stayed away from the global funds though global funds offer better diversification. However, the latest MF investors folio data (Source: SEBI) showed a marginal uptick (M-o-M) in the number of folios in the overseas FoF category in the month of August 2013, after a prolonged M-o-M decrease since October 2011.

In this note, we attempt to refresh the features & performance of global funds and their sub-categories using SWOT tool.

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Mutual Fund Category Analysis contd…

Global funds lose out capital gain and DDT benefits as far as tax implication is concerned as they are treated like debt oriented funds.

Notwithstanding the global diversification, most of global funds hold concentrated portfolios with constricted objectives based on theme, country specific, etc.

Minimum investment allowed to invest in global funds are at Rs. 5,000 (Rs. 10,000 in some schemes). SIP, STP and SWP are also offered. Exit load is ranging from 1% to 3% for the redemption from 30 days to 18 months. (NIL in case of ETFs).

Expense ratio is ranging from 0.91% to 3.02% on global funds.

1. Global Funds – Agri Business.

2. Global Funds – China Equity.

3. Global Funds – US Equity.

4. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities.

5. Global Funds – Emerging Markets.

6. Global Funds – Across the globe.

III. Classification of Global Funds:

There are 35 schemes coming under Global funds category.

Though it is difficult to sub-classify the Global fund category as each scheme varies in terms of objectives, we tried to do so based on the assets in which they do invest primarily, geographical diversification and the style of investing. Hence we have arrived with six categories as,

Please note that all the schemes in global funds category are equity funds and actively managed barring GS Hang Seng BeES ETF. (incase of FoF, the underlying funds are actively managed schemes).

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IV. Benefits of investing in Global funds:1. Diversification: Investors can diversify their portfolio through geographical diversification apart from

various asset classes like domestic equities, debt, commodities etc.

2. Access to global industry leaders: Investors can participate in the growth stories of the best and the biggest businesses globally which many of do not have presence in India. They are such as Face book, Microsoft, Google, etc.

3. Stability: Global markets often perform in contrast as different countries go through different economic cycles. By having investments across currencies, investors can ensure steady and stable returns on their investment.

4. Currency and Geo political diversification: By investing across countries, investors can minimising currency and geo-political risk.

5. Hedging: Investors who have future dollar expenses (for example, parents planning to send their children to US for higher education, importers having dollar commitments, etc.) can hedge against any future depreciation in the rupee vis-à-vis the US dollar by investing in this scheme.

1. Currency risk: is explained in the slide 5.

2. Fund manager’s expertise: The performance of global funds depend on the expertise of fund managers in handling international funds as not only the rupee-dollar equation is considered but also the performance of rupee against other Asian currencies.

3. Higher Cost: In case of Fund of Funds, expense fees and management costs are higher than normal mutual funds, as the cost structure will include the fees of the underlying mutual funds as well as the FoF. Expense ratio for these funds ranging from 0.91% to 3.02%.

4. Country-specific risks include political and economic instability in the country your investments are exposed to.

V. Risks of investing in Global funds:

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Investors have to note that no country can continue to perform well forever. Each one is going to have its own period of glory and worry. This is the same case for India as well which has frequently alternated between the best and the worst phases.

Considering the chart below, while emerging markets are considered high potential, it is also equally true that they are more volatile. Similarly, while the BSE Sensex saw outperformed both the MSCI World Index and the MSCI EM Index in the 2002-2007 period, it has been quite the other way round in the 2008-2012 period.

Further, with low correlation with Indian equities, the overall risk of your portfolio is reduced thus the investors will get the balanced returns from the investment.

VI. The need of global Diversification - Explained:

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When you spread your investment across the universe, you must bear the risk associated with fluctuations in the exchange rates. Fluctuations in these currency values, whether Rupee or USD or the currencies of the countries where the mutual funds invest, can either enhance or reduce the returns.

Operationally, the rupee (invested by the investor) is first converted into dollar and then into the local currency for investing abroad and vice-versa.

To put in simple term, if the rupee appreciates vis-à-vis the dollar, the returns from the scheme will be adversely affected and vice-versa.

The present situation of depreciation in Indian Rupee Vs. US Dollar has helped the global funds across the board. The dollar witnessed appreciation against all the major currencies in the last one year period (18% vs the Rupee in absolute term as of 26 Sep 2013) which propelled the returns of the global funds. (see the chart below).

VII. Currency risk - Explained:

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Mutual Fund Category Analysis

Sub Categories - Explained

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i. Global Funds – Agri Business contd…

There are 3 schemes in Indian mutual fund industry investing primarily in equity of agricultural companies worldwide.

Agricultural companies are those which are engaged in agriculture, agricultural chemicals, equipment and infrastructure, agricultural commodities and food, bio-fuels, crop sciences, farm land and forestry. They also invest in the direct and indirect beneficiaries of the anticipated growth in the agriculture and/or affiliated/allied sectors.

Schemes that invest in Global Agri business companies showed consistent but average performance since launch given the strong secular demand drivers of rising global population, increasing protein consumption in emerging markets and the adoption of alternative fuels such as bio-fuel. Depreciation in the domestic currency against the dollar also supported in the medium term.

i. Global Funds – Agri Business:

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DSP BR World Agriculture B irla Sun Life CEF - Global Agri DWS Global Agribusiness OffshoreS&P Global Agribusi Equity Index (INR)Sensex

Agri Business schemes Vs. Domestic Equity:

They invest mainly in stocks belonging to developed economies such as US, Canada etc. Hence, the risk of losing out capital is somewhat reduced.

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Strengths:

• Agribusiness worldwide is a profitable sector and the valuations remain well below historical longer term averages.

• Agribusiness companies tend to be less affected by business cycle swings than most equity sectors due to the unique supply and demand dynamics of the sector.

• Crop insurance – helps producer to stay away from the risk of loss and maintain revenue.

• Urbanization.

• Persistent increasing demand due to population growth.

Weaknesses:

• Agricultural commodity prices remain at elevated levels over a decade.

• High commodity prices has led producers to increase capital spending on new supply.

• Weather conditions are a huge swing factor affecting agricultural production.

• Drought and diminished production.

• Land & Water Scarcity and Increasing Pollution.

• Declining Yield.

Opportunities:

• Trend of rising emerging market demand for agricultural produce.

• Rising population growth - rise in global cereal demand.

• Tend to benefit from rising farm incomes and insurance payments to the farming sector.

SWOT Analysis:

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• Fast growing middle class population in emerging countries such as China that leading to higher imports.

• Long-term dietary change toward more protein consumption factorising more of the global crop production.

• Depleting natural resources (eg, growing bio-energy demand)

• More of merger and Acquisition in agribusiness sector.

• Limited Resources - growing need for higher productivity.

Threats:

• Weak global economic conditions affecting demand, putting pressure on prices.

• Upward pressure on food prices.

• Production is expected to decline as a result of rising costs and resource constraints.

• Weakening of domestic currencies against the dollar affect imports.

• Production uncertainty.

• Stagnant growth in developed world.

• Low yields with inflationary risks.

• Lack of or poor infrastructure.

• Hot climate, as weather conditions influence the performance of this commodity.

To conclude:Agribusiness worldwide is likely to see gradual growth over the long term given the rising population and long term dietary changes. Further, the unique supply and demand dynamics of the sector would mitigate the risk that are associated with the industry. The historical performance of the funds is decent as they at least delivered outperforming or positive returns. So investors with medium to high risk appetite profile can invest and hold for at least 3 years or so. Stability or appreciation in rupee against the dollar may cut the returns from the funds.

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i. Global Funds – Agri Business

Relative Returns - Benchmarks:

How they fared Vs. Equity Diversified schemes:

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Birla Sun Life CEF - Global Agri DSP BR World Agriculture DWS Global Agribusi Offshore

Global Funds - Agri Business Indian - Equity Diversified

DWS Global Agribusiness Offshore and DSP BR World Agri are the top performing schemes from the category.

Agribusiness index posted positive returns in the six out of last seven years period. However, the appreciation or depreciation in the rupee against the dollar will play important role on the schemes returns going forward.

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ii. Global Funds – China Equity contd…

There are three mutual fund schemes in India which predominantly investing in Chinese equity markets such as JPMorgan JF Greater China Equity Off Shore, MiraeAsset China Advantage and GS Hang Seng BeES.

The mutual fund schemes that focus mainly on Chinese equities have managed to outperform/track closely their respective benchmarks as well as domestic indices during various time frames all thanks to the rebounded Chinese equity markets coupled with depreciation of INR against USD.

Like India, China has been also the victim of global headwinds over periods. However, the Chinese equity market gained in the recent periods on the back of some early signs of stabilization in the economy coupled with the rally of the China onshore equity market.

ii. Global Funds – China Equity

NAV Performance Vs. Domestic Equity:

These schemes invest mostly in the large cap Chinese stocks which are having potential to grow. The above chart portrays the relative outperformance of the schemes against the Sensex. Needless to say, the depreciation of Rupee Vs. Dollar also helped to achieve outperforming returns.

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ii. Global Funds – China Equity contd…

SWOT Analysis:Strengths:

• China - the fastest growing economy in the world, has been growing at an average of 9+% for the past 30 years.

• Cheapest and attractive valuations.

• Emerging middle class households, increasing number of super-rich, ongoing urbanization and increasing big and mid-sized cities support consumer spending and bring huge service demand.

• Low unemployment, robust domestic demand, and credit growth continue to bolster economic growth.

• A stable currency.

• In the transition mode from investment to consumption-led growth.

• Potential to grow at much faster rates than developed economies.

Weaknesses:

• Rising inflationary concerns and slowdown in the growth.

• Economic recovery is likely to be slower than in previous cycles as China works to correct imbalances and is restricted in its ability to pump prime growth.

• Tight labour market.

Opportunities:

• Subdued growth from developed economies provide support to emerging economies.

• Growth to pick up: China to focus on consumption in order to reduce China’s reliance on exports and investment spending. Hence, consumption growth to be a long-term theme that lasts many years.

• The upward earnings revision to support market sentiment and rebound in the near term.

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ii. Global Funds – China Equity

Relative Returns - Benchmarks: How they fared Vs. Equity Diversified schemes:

• The new leadership is expected to focus on deregulation and liberalization of key sectors, as well as on the social welfare of the population.

Threats:

• China’s working population started to decline. Increasing wages level.

• The housing boom has led to overbuilding and expensive valuations.

• Key exports markets continuing to struggle.

• Any possible stimulus withdrawal by Fed will impact the emerging markets.

To conclude:

China market is very cheap in current price level and hard landing risk of economy is low, so downside risk in near term will be limited. However, it is unlikely to expect a strong uptrend in near term but a gradual growth would be seen in the economy.

Given the above points, investors with higher risk appetite who are looking for sustainable growth from the emerging market can consider investing in China equity funds and hold over the longer term.

Chinese indices posted moderate growth in comparison to Sensex over the last seven years period. The depreciation in the rupee value ultimately supported the schemes to deliver better returns over the medium term. JPMorgan JF Greater China Equity Off-Shore and Mirae Asset China Advantage are the top performing schemes from the category.

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iii. Global Funds – US Equity contd…

There are five funds in the domestic domain that invest majorly in US equities. Each fund follows different investment strategy of allocating assets based on the different themes.

All the funds in the category managed to generate decent returns over the last one year period on the back of persistent depreciation in the rupee value against the dollar. They yielded returns ranging from 32-45% (as of 26 Sep) in the last one year period while the INR depreciated close to 18%.

iii. Global Funds – US Equity:


The global economy is going through an uncertain phase, but recent data is pointing towards an improving economy in the United States. US companies emerged from the 2008 crisis with stronger balance sheets, leaner operations all of which make them very competitive in the global marketplace. However, one can not expect the similar returns as the category posted in the last one year period going forward as the rupee seems to stabilize or may move in a narrow range against the dollar in the near to medium term.

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iii. Global Funds – US Equity contd…

Strengths:

• Access to the world’s largest equity market.

• Highest GDP in the world at $15 trillion.

• US Equities are a core component of global equity portfolios/indices.

• US is amongst the most well diversified markets offering to invest in global brands which benefit from global business & consumption.

• Diversification by investing in a low correlated market which may lower the volatility in one’s portfolio.

• Exposure to global benchmark currency i.e the US dollar.

• Access to certain sectors like semiconductor, aerospace, etc which may not be available in the Indian equity market.

Weaknesses:

• Fiscal consolidation.

• Higher taxes and fiscal austerity.

• Persisting low U.S. interest rates is keeping investors pressed to search for higher yields outside.

Opportunities:

• US equities are currently attractively valued.

• US companies are better equipped to manage a challenging macro environment.

• US economy continues to demonstrate slow but stable economic recovery.

SWOT Analysis:

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iii. Global Funds – US Equity


• Possibility of a sustained recovery.

• The rate of growth of the labour force is likely to be higher.

• Fiscal progress and clarity regarding taxes to help support continued strong performance by U.S. companies and consumers.

Threats:

• The US equities are no longer benefiting from a rise in bond yields which has been undermining corporate margins & having a negative impact on economic activity.

• Possibility of rise in the inflation expectations in the economy.

• Total employment still remains well below its pre-recession peak.

To conclude:

The economic recovery in the U.S is expected to be in a slowed pace considering the present macro economic conditions. Given the bluechip orientation, the investors with medium to high risk appetite can consider investing in US equity mutual funds. The holding period would be at least 3 years or so.

The U.S stocks saw recovery from the recession period of 2008 and delivered positive returns over the last five years period.

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iv. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities contd…

There are seven Indian mutual fund schemes investing primarily in global mining and commodity equities, out of which two schemes invest mainly in gold mining companies and rest invest in overall commodities equity companies.

None of the funds hold any form of physical or dematerialized gold or metals but invest in stocks of companies in the business of extracting, processing and marketing of gold across globe. Investment may also take place in companies engaged in the business of mining other metals or precious stones.

iv. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities:


Prices of Mining companies’ stocks including gold mines witnessed fall across the spectrum and sunk to their lows over the last two years. They underperformed their underlying commodities in the wake of waning risk appetite among investors across the world.

All schemes posted lackluster performance over the last two years period given the geo political condition, global growth slow down and fall in the commodity prices.

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iv. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities contd…

The schemes maintain concentrated portfolios of investing only in mining industries as mandated, holding an average of 46 stocks. As far as regional exposure is concerned, more weightage has been given to North America, Europe followed by Canada, Latin America and South Africa.

SWOT Analysis:

Strengths:

• Gold – a good hedge against the uncertainties.

• Rise in the prices of commodities.

• Constant demand.

• Increase in industrial demand.

• Increase in Jewellery demand with China and India.

Weaknesses:

• Most of commodities were downgraded given the global growth expectations.

• A decade of high commodity prices has led producers to increase capital spending on new supply.

• Sentiment has temporarily turned negative for gold.

• Lack of Infrastructure and the supply chain

Opportunities:

• Persisting inflationary pressure posing strong environment for gold.

• New management teams, improving capital discipline and operational efficiency and greater willingness to return to capital to shareholders.

• Free cash-flow level.

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iv. Global Funds – Gold and Commodities


Threats:

• Global economic uncertainty and growth slowdown lead to demand for many commodities dropping dramatically.

• Political risk and strikes.

• Rising cost and insurance hurdles.

• Skills shortage.

• Price and currency volatility.

• Infrastructure access.

• Signs of US economic growth.

To conclude:In the medium term, commodity prices are likely to remain range-bound as supply and demand have come closer into balance. Even well-managed mining businesses are unable to generate free cash flow and they need to be focused on capital discipline, operational efficiency and growing margins through cost control. Hence, investors are advised to stay away from Gold and commodity funds.

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v. Global Funds – Emerging Markets contd…

Apart from China focused funds, there are seven funds investing in emerging markets out of which one fund is country specific (HSBC Brazil) while the others spread investments across the emerging markets.

Though these schemes provide geographical diversification, they are semi diversified and high risk high return mutual funds as they invest in emerging countries. Further, the investors have to bear the country specific risk also.

Franklin Asian Equity and Kotak Global Emerging Market are the best performing schemes from the category.

v. Global Funds – Emerging Markets:


Depreciation of Rupee against the dollar helped the these schemes to generate higher returns. But, on the other hand, the depreciated home currency where the stocks are invested in reduced the profit of the schemes.

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v. Global Funds – Emerging Markets contd…


• The developed world is undergoing a prolonged phase of structural deleveraging, both at the household and at the sovereign level. As a result, the emerging world will remain the driver of global output, led by China, with positive implications for Latin America, a key trading partner.

• Emerging markets have potential to grow much faster rates than developed economies.

• Emerging Markets, a key beneficiary of the abundant liquidity environment, have seen the most dramatic moves as capital has exited the region amid general risk aversion and as investors chase higher rates in developed markets.

• Structural reform agendas in emerging markets. The new leadership in China is expected to focus on deregulation and liberalization of key sectors. Reform will also be on the table in other key markets such as Brazil, Russia and Mexico. India offers a rich mix of secular growth stories across the consumer, financial, software and health care sectors, and is much less volatile than other commodity and cyclically-led emerging economies.

• The Philippines, though a small market, continues to be interesting on the back of a strong pool of a young, English-speaking population, which is slowly dominating service sectors across the region, including business process outsourcing, travel and tourism.

• Brazilian earnings revisions are bottoming, Mexico is undergoing significant structural reform.

Weaknesses:

• Higher inflation and depreciation in domestic currency.

• Economic recovery is likely to be slower than in previous cycles as China works to correct imbalances and is restricted in its ability to pump prime growth.

• Global currency war e.g., rate cuts, tariffs, capital controls in emerging economies will impact negatively.

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v. Global Funds – Emerging Markets


Opportunities:

• Subdued growth from developed economies provide support to emerging economies.

• Monetary and fiscal stimulus and easier monetary policy will benefit the emerging markets.

• Asia to lead growth in emerging markets due to the recoveries in China and India.

Threats:

• The lingering effects of the fiscal cliff debate in the U.S. and the ongoing recession in Europe could continue to weigh on emerging market.

• A recession in the U.S. could lead to a significantly negative impact on global growth.

• End of policy easing stokes in developed economies will intensify the sell off in the emerging market side.

To conclude:

The funds that are investing emerging markets are high risk high returns products wherein one need to continuously track the performance of the investment. So investors with very high risk profile can consider invest in this and hold for at least 3 years.

However, periodical review is mandatory on this.

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vi. Global Funds – Across the globe contd…

There are ten schemes in Indian MF industry spread their asset across the globe. They are meant for more diversification. However, each scheme follows different themes.

Some of the schemes showed better returns while some of the schemes posted marginal returns. However, all the schemes got benefited from the depreciation of rupee against the dollar.

Though they diversify their investment across the globe, they are not required to invest in all the countries. So, each scheme invests based on the objectives.

vi. Global Funds – Across the Globe:


Birla Sun Life International Equity A and DWS Global Thematic Offshore, ING Global Real Estate and L&T Global Real Assets have been the top and consistent performers over the periods.

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vi. Global Funds – Across the globe



• They have global presence of investing across countries and market capitalisation.

Weaknesses:

• Country specific risk.

• Currency risk.

Opportunities:

• When one country underperforms the other outperforming country will off-set the loss and help to achieve the balanced returns.

Threats:

• Appreciation of domestic or the currency of the invested country and Geo political uncertainties.

To conclude:Investors with high risk profile can consider invest in this and hold for at least 3 years. However, periodical review is mandatory on this.

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Mutual Fund Category Analysis

Analyst: Dhuraivel Gunasekaran. (Database sources: AMC Sites, NAVIndia and Ace MF)

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Corpus Chart – Total Global Funds category (Rs Crs):

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Disclaimer: Mutual Fund investments are subject to risk. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or

copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied

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HDFC sec note - Global funds - SWOT Analysis - Oct 03, 2013

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