July 2013 1 HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013 Authors: Dr. Ulrich Geilinger, Rossella Belleli, Cédric Barra Trends in New Drug Approvals by the US FDA 2003-2012 New US Drug Approvals During the First Half of 2013 Peak Sales Potential of New Drugs Approved Since 2010 This report including key data of new drugs (NMEs) approved by the FDA since 2003 is available under www.hbmpartners.com/report . About the HBM New Drug Approval Report HBM Partners is supporting two master theses carried out at the University Basel and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETHZ). Rosella Belleli is researching the clinical development characteristics of new therapeutic drugs approved from 2003 to 2012 (Master thesis at University of Basel, Department of Public Health, Prof. Dr. med. Thomas D. Szucs, European Center of Pharmaceutical Medicine). Cédric Barra is analyzing the collaborations during the drug development process within the pharmaceutical industry (Master thesis at ETHZ, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Prof. Dr. Georg von Krogh, Chair of Strategic Management and Innovation). For their master thesis, Belleli and Barra have with the support of HBM Partners compiled certain data on new drug approvals available from the FDA website (www.fda.gov ) as well as from other public sources (mainly press releases by drug sponsors). The HBM New Drug Approval Report provides an initial analysis of this data. Further data used for the above-mentioned master theses will be added by the two researchers. We hope that this data will be of use to industry participants and researchers as a basis for further analysis and research on the topic of new drug approvals. The authors of the report welcome any feedback or corrections: Dr. Ulrich Geilinger, [email protected]Rossella Belleli, [email protected]Cédric Barra, [email protected]
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July 2013
1
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013 Authors: Dr. Ulrich Geilinger, Rossella Belleli, Cédric Barra
Trends in New Drug Approvals by the US FDA 2003-2012
New US Drug Approvals During the First Half of 2013
Peak Sales Potential of New Drugs Approved Since 2010
This report including key data of new drugs (NMEs) approved by the FDA since 2003 is available under www.hbmpartners.com/report.
About the HBM New Drug Approval Report
HBM Partners is supporting two master theses carried out at the University Basel and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETHZ). Rosella Belleli is researching the clinical development characteristics of new therapeutic drugs approved from 2003 to 2012 (Master thesis at University of Basel, Department of Public Health, Prof. Dr. med. Thomas D. Szucs, European Center of Pharmaceutical Medicine). Cédric Barra is analyzing the collaborations during the drug development process within the pharmaceutical industry (Master thesis at ETHZ, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Prof. Dr. Georg von Krogh, Chair of Strategic Management and Innovation).
For their master thesis, Belleli and Barra have with the support of HBM Partners compiled certain data on new drug approvals available from the FDA website (www.fda.gov) as well as from other public sources (mainly press releases by drug sponsors). The HBM New Drug Approval Report provides an initial analysis of this data. Further data used for the above-mentioned master theses will be added by the two researchers.
We hope that this data will be of use to industry participants and researchers as a basis for further analysis and research on the topic of new drug approvals.
The authors of the report welcome any feedback or corrections:
Trends in New Drug Approvals by the US FDA 2003-2012
Introduction
For 2011 and 2012, the US FDA reported significantly higher numbers of novel drug approvals (also called New
Molecular Entities or NMEsa) as compared to previous years
1. This is certainly good news for the
pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, as the industry is faced with increasing drug development spending
that (until 2011) did not result in an increase of the number of novel drugs approved. The “productivity crisis”
in pharmaceutical drug development has been the topic of numerous reports and studies. The recent jump in
new drug approvals by FDA in 2011 and 2012 was commented upon extensively in the press. FDA itself in its
"FY 2011 [and FY 2012] Innovative Drug Approvals" publications highlights that these new drugs include
"groundbreaking treatments" for several diseases. The reports also emphasize that in 2011 and 2012, 64% and
75%, respectively, of all novel drugs were first approved in the US. New NDA/BLA applications per year were
pretty much in-line with approvals2 so the recent increase of approvals is not due to a “backlog effect”.
Chart 1: NMEs Approved by FDA 2003-2012
1HBM Partners
New NMEs Approved by FDA 2003-2012 (NCEs & Biologics)
Source: FDA, HBM analysis / NME = new molecular entity, NCE = new chemcial entity, i.e. small molecule
4 2 4 2 36 6 6 6
21
32
1818
16
2120
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2022
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2426
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
# o
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New NCEs approved (FDA statistics)
New biologics approved (FDA statistics)
New therapeutics approved (HBM analysis)
Source: FDA (www.fda.gov), HBM analysis / Notes: NCEs = New chemical entities, i.e. new small molecules
Note: 2003 FDA numbers do not include biologics
This report analyses the trends in novel drug approvals by the FDA for the ten-year period from 2003 to 2012
and provides some perspective on the recent increase of such approval numbers. We mainly compare the five
years from 2008 to 2012 with the five previous years, as well as the years 2011 and 2012 (the years with the
highest approval numbers) with the eight preceding years (2003 to 2010). It should be noted that the number
of novel drug approvals as published by the FDA (green and grey bars in the chart above) also include certain
diagnostics agents, adjuvants, antidotes and other non-therapeutic agents. For the purpose of our analysis, we
have therefore reclassified the data, limiting it to novel therapeutic drugs approved for human use by the FDA
(highlighted orange in the chart above). We have excluded preventive vaccines from our analysis as these
include new versions of seasonal vaccines and only some vaccines are included in the FDA statistics. We added
three new biologics (1 in 2003, 1 in 2010 and 1 in 2011) that are not included in the FDA numbers. For more
details of inclusion/exclusion of NMEs see page 3 and Annexe 1. In this report, we focus on therapeutic NMEs
and the terms “new drugs” or “NMEs” will be used with this meaning. During the ten year period from 2003 to
2012, 237 such therapeutic NMEs were approved by the FDA.
a Quote from “FY 2011 Innovative Drug Approvals”, FDA, November 2011: “… NMEs are drugs, including biological products, with novel chemical structures that have never been approved before to treat any disease, and often represent the most innovative drugs entering the market. These drugs include products approved by FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research [CDER] and FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research [CBER].” The term “New Active Substance” (or NAS) is also used sometimes in this context.
Approvals by therapeutic area: Approvals in oncology continued to be strong with 5 new cancer drugs so far
(43% of approvals). Three of these could reach sales of over $1 billion: Xofigo (Bayer) for late-stage metastatic
castration-resistant prostate cancer, Kadcyla (Genentech/Roche) for metastatic breast cancer and Pomalyst
(Celgene) for third-line treatment of multiple myeloma.
Approvals were granted for two new diabetes drugs: Nesina, a further DPP4 inhibitor launched by Takeda, and
Invokana, the first approved SGLT2 inhibitor. Invokana was licensed by Janssen/Johnson & Johnson from
Mitsubishi Tanabe and has the potential to reach blockbuster status.
Other NMEs approved during the first half of 2013 were: Kynamro (Genzyme, homozygous familial
hypercholesterolemia), Kcentra (CSL, acute bleeding), Breo Ellipta (Glaxo Smith Kline, COPD) and Osphena
(Shionogi, dyspareunia). Of these, Breo Ellipta, an inhaled combination drug with a new ingredient, has the
highest market potential (peak sales estimates range from $550 million to $4 billion).
Approvals by size of company: Drug approvals during 2013 were so far dominated by large pharma companies
with 6 approvals (in prior years, they had a significantly lower share of approvals). No approval was granted to
a small company (with a market cap of less than $1 billion). More than half of the newly approved drugs (7 of
13) were in-licensed or acquired by the drug sponsors (in previous years, the majority of approved drugs
originated in-house).
Biologics: Of the 13 NMEs approved, only three were biologics (approved as a BLA): Kcentra, a prothrombin-
complex derived from blood plasma to stop acute bleeding (CSL); Kadcyla, an antibody-drug conjugate
consisting of the monoclonal antibody trastuzumab (Herceptin) linked to a cytotoxic agent (Genentech/Roche);
and Rixubis, a factor IX protein to prevent or stop bleeding episodes in hemophilia B patients (Baxter).
Orphan drugs: Almost half of the new drugs (6 out of 13) were approved with Orphan Drug Designation. The
trend of an increasing share of orphan drug approvals therefore continued.
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013
7
Highlight: Peak Sales Potential of New US Drugs Approved Since 2010
We have collected peak sales estimates for most therapeutic NMEs approved by FDA in 2010 and later. Such
estimates are usually provided by banking analysts and pharma consultants. Wherever available, we used
consensus estimates or – in the case of different estimates – we calculated the averagesa. In most cases, the
numbers relate to the worldwide market potential. Thus, approvals in other jurisdictions will be needed to
achieve such peak sales. For our analysis, we used the peak sales as estimated at the time of approval (these
estimates are usually adjusted thereafter based on the actual sales results). It should be noted that peak sales
estimates (at the time of approval) are generally optimistic and actual sales more often than not fall short of
expectations.
Chart 4: Peak Sales Potential of New Drugs Approved by FDA 2010 – H1 2013
5HBM Partners
Peak Sales Potential of New Drugs Approved by FDA 2010 – H1 2013
Source: FDA, HBM Analysis / NME = new molecular entity
17.522.6
30.4
12.4
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35
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2010 2011 2012 H1 2013
An
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eak
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ote
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$ b
illio
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+ 35%
Number of NMEs
approved
New therapeutics NMEs only
Source: FDA, HBM analysis
The higher number of novel drugs approved by FDA in 2012 is also reflected in a higher total peak sales
potential for these drugs (+35% as compared to 2011). While our analysis of peak sales estimates of earlier
years is still “work in progress”, the “class of 2012” seems to have the highest commercial potential of new
drugs approved in any year since 2003. The table on the next page provides a summary of peak sales estimates
of new drugs since 2010, including a list of potential blockbuster drugs.
Average peak sales per drug: Average expected peak sales for new drugs have risen from around $800 million
per drug in 2010 and 2011 to $950 million in 2013. This trend of increasing peak sales per new drug clearly
contradicts other studies such a recent the publication by Accenture „The New Reality: Maximizing Product
Launches in the Post-Blockbuster World”6 which forecasts a decrease in revenue potential per new drug.
Therapeutic areas with very high average peak sales per drug of over $1 billion were immunology (8 drugs
approved since 2010), hematology (6 drugs) and diabetes (4 drugs). Low average peak sales (below $0.5 billion)
of new drugs were observed in CNS/Pain (7 drugs approved since 2010), women’s health (4 drugs), GI (3 drugs),
urology/nephrology (2 drugs) and dermatology (2 drugs).
a Peak sales estimates were not available for some drugs, mainly for niche drugs and drugs launched by private companies. We assume that the revenue potential of these drugs (without peak sale estimates) is modest, so our aggregated peak sales should encompass substantially all the commercial potential of the newly approved drugs.
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013
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Table 2: Peak Sales Potential of New Drugs Approved by FDA 2010 – H1 2013
Eisai Note 1: Therapeutic NMEs approved / Note 2: Mostly drugs to treat HCV and HIV
Peak sales by therapeutic area: New cancer drugs approved since 2010 have by far the largest commercial
potential ($23.5 billion) with an increasing share of total peak sales. New drugs in immunology are expected to
generate peak sales of $13.2 billion. Two blockbuster products were approved in multiple sclerosis (Tecfidera
and Gilenya) and two in rheumatoid arthritis (Xeljanz and Actemra). Approvals for three new anti-coagulants
(Eliquis, Pradaxa and Xarelto) lifted the revenue potential in the hematology area to $8.3 billion. Most of the
$7.6 billion of revenue potential of new anti-infectives comes from two new Hepatitis C drugs (Incivek and
Victrelis) and two new HIV drugs (Virtrelis and Edurant). In diabetes, 4 new drugs – all with substantial market
potential – were approved. If one adds Belviq (obesity) with estimated peak sales of around $2 billion, then the
diabetes/obesity area looks quite strong. Finally, new (orphan) drugs to treat genetic diseases are expected to
generate more total sales than the new drugs in broader disease areas such as CNS/pain, cardiovascular or
respiratory diseases.
Biologics (see chart on next page): Total expected peak sales of new biologics (approved as BLA) dropped from
over $6 billion for those approved in 2010 and in 2011 to below $4 billion in 2012, with fewer biologics
approved in 2012. The commercial potential of new biologics as a percentage of total expected sales of new
drugs seems to be trending downward from a high of 40% to below 20% in 2012 (and in H1 2013). Also,
average peak sales estimates of biologics do not differ significantly from the estimates for NCEs. Recently
approved biologics even seem to have a lower revenue potential than NCEs. However it should be noted that
the potential peak sales on average for the 7 antibodies approved since 2010 is still high ($1.5 billion.)
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013
9
Chart 5: Peak Sales Potential of New Biologics (BLAs) Approved by FDA 2010 – H1 2013
6HBM Partners
Peak Sales Estimates of New Biologics (BLA) Approved by FDA
New therapeutics NMEs only
Source: FDA, HBM Analysis
6.6 6.2
3.62.1
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879
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908
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Ave
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Pea
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ales
Est
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es($
bill
ion
)
Avg. peak salesbiologics
Number ofnew biologcs
approved
Avg. peak salesNCEs
Source: FDA, HBM analysis / Note: In 2010, peak sales estimates available for only 6 biologics
Orphan drugs: As discussed later in this report, orphan drug approvals have risen strongly since 2011,
accounting now for about 30-40% of all new drug approvals. This trend continued during the first half of 2013.
As peak sales estimates for orphan drugs are on average only about half of those for other drugs, their
commercial impact is lower. Nevertheless, new orphan drugs account for up to a quarter of the total
commercial potential of approved NMEs.
Chart 6: Peak Sales Potential of New Orphan Drugs Approved by FDA 2010 – H1 2013
7HBM Partners
Peak Sales Estimates of New Orphan Drugs Approved by FDA
3.3
6.17.1
2.2
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19%
27%23%
18%
0%
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20%
30%
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50%
60%
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2010 2011 2012 H1 2013
Pea
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ales
Est
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bill
ion
)
Number of new
orphan drugs
approved
New therapeutics NMEs only
Source: FDA, HBM Analysis
% of peak sales
estimates of
all aproved drugs
Source: FDA, HBM analysis
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013
10
Trends in New Drug Approvals by US FDA 2003-2012 (continued): Biologics vs. NCEs
Of all new drugs approved during the ten-year period, 41 (or 17%%) were biologics (approved as a Biologic
License Application or BLA, highlighted in green in the chart below)a. The number of biologics approvals has
risen, at least until 2011. Rising biologics approvals thus have been clearly one of the factors driving up drug
approval numbers in recent years. The high number NCEs approved in 2012 indicate, however, that small
molecules are making a “come back”.
Chart 7: New Drugs Approvals 2003-2012 – Biologics vs. NCEs
8HBM Partners
New NCEs and Biologics Approved by FDA 2003-2012
14 2 4 2 3
6 7 7 521 4
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# o
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New NCEs (NDA)
New other large molecules (NDA)
New biologics (BLAs)
New therapeutics NMEs only
Source: FDA / NCE = new chemcial entity, i.e. small molecule
Source: FDA, HBM Analysis
A number of large molecules (mainly peptides) have been approved by CDER under an NDA. These –
highlighted in orange in the graph above – are included in the further analysis of biologics approvals. The graph
below shows the new biologics (and large molecules) by type. There was a marked increase in new antibodies
approved in 2009, 2010 and 2011. In 2012, only one new therapeutic antibody (Perjeta, treatment of
metastatic breast cancer, sponsored by Genentech) was approved. A further antibody, Raxibacumab against
Anthrax infections, was also approved in 2012 (not included in our numbers).
Chart 8: New Biologics / Large Molecule Approvals by Type of Drug
9HBM Partners
New Biologics and Large Molecules Approved by FDA 2003-2012
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1 1
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Other
Peptides
Other Proteins
Enzymes
Antibodies
New therapeutics NMEs only
Source: FDA, HBM Analysis
Source: FDA, HBM Analysis
a The number of biologics in Chart 7 differ slightly from the “official” FDA numbers for biologics approvals in Chart 1. In Chart 7 we included Advate (2003) as 2003 FDA numbers do not yet cover biologics. In 2010 Provenge and in 2011 Corifact were added. Raxibacumab, approved in 2012, is excluded.
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013
11
Of the ten therapeutic antibodies approved since 2009, seven were fully human, four were developed for
cancer treatment and four for immunology indications.
Enzymes and other protein drugs also saw more approvals recently. Enzyme approvals were mostly related to
orphan drugs treating genetic diseases. The drugs marked as "Other " were Provenge (2010), the first
therapeutic cancer vaccine to reach the market, and Corifact (2011), the first coagulation factor XIII approved.
It should be mentioned that Provenge is not really a “molecular entity”.
Of the 53 biologics and large molecules approved, 13 (or 24%) were owned at approval by large pharma
companies, including seven antibodies. Note: According to our information, only three antibodies approved by
big pharma were discovered in-house. Not unexpectedly, large pharma’s share of new biologics and large
molecules approved is lower than its share of new small molecule drugs (36% share).
Interestingly, small molecules (NCEs) were more frequently in-licensed or acquired by M&A (49% of NCEs) as
compared to biologics or large molecules. 41% of the approved antibodies were in-licensed or acquired.
Enzymes and other proteins, as well as peptides were mostly developed in-house.
The following companies had two or more biologics and/or large molecules approved during the ten-year
period from 2003 to 2012:
Roche: Fuzeon* in 2003, Mircera in 2007, Actemra in 2010 and Perjeta in 2012. Genentech (now owned by
Roche) also had two blockbuster biologics approved (Avastin in 2004 and Lucentis in 2006)
Amgen: Kepivance in 2004, Vectibix in 2006, Nplate in 2008 and Prolia in 2010
Bristol-Myers Squibb: Orencia in 2005, Nulojix and Yervoy in 2011
Sanofi: Zemaira in 2003 (developed by Aventis), Apidra* in 2004 and Zaltrap in 2012. Genzyme (now owned
by Sanofi) also had two approvals (Myozyme in 2006, Lumizyme in 2010). It should be noted that Myozyme
and Lumizyme are substantially the same product with a different manufacturing process.
Amylin: Byetta* in 2005 and Symlin* in 2005
Johnson & Johnson: Simponi and Stelara in 2009
Novo Nordisk: Levemir* in 2005 and Victoza* in 2010
Regeneron: Arcalyst in 2008 and Eyela in 2011
Shire: Elaprase 2006 and Vpriv* 2010
* Approved under an NDA. All such approved products are peptides, except for Vpriv which is an enzyme.
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013
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Orphan Drugs
Orphan Drug Designation is granted to products developed to treat a rare disease or condition (affecting fewer
than 200,000 people in the US). The sponsor of an orphan drug receives certain benefits such as extended
exclusivity periods. During the ten-year period studied, 74 of the 237 newly approved drugs (31%) had received
an Orphan Drug Designation. Orphan drug approvals were most common in cancer (28 orphan drug approvals
during 2003-2012, 52% of all cancer approvals), genetic diseases (all 17 approvals had orphan drug
designation), endocrinology (7) and CNS/pain (6).
Chart 9: New Orphan Drug Approvals 2003-2012
10HBM Partners
New Orphan Drugs Approved by FDA 2003-2012
1 12
12 2
3 32
1 32
3
22
3
7
5
1
54
33
4
3
2
4
14%
29%
39%
24%
35% 35% 35%
27%
41%
31%
0%
15%
30%
45%
0
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15
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
# of New OrphanDrugs Approved
by FDA
Other
Cancer
Genetic
% Share of All
Drugs Approved
New therapeutics NMEs only
Source: FDA, HBM Analysis
Source: FDA, HBM Analysis
Over the ten years studied, the number of new orphan drugs approved rose significantly. More than ten
orphan drugs were approved both in 2011 and in 2012. These record numbers were driven by the high number
of new cancer drugs with Orphan Drug Designation and the continued attraction of rare genetic diseases where
drug reimbursement is still very attractive. As we show in the next chapter, orphan drugs are more likely to
receive Fast Track, Priority and/or Accelerated Approval (see pages 18ff) providing a potentially faster path to
market.
Large pharma companies sponsored about one third of all orphan drugs approved in the ten-year period, in line
with large pharma’s overall share of new drugs approvals. Their share of orphan drug approvals has been
increasing over the years, indicating that large companies have become more interested in the field. Another
factor could be that, increasingly, new drugs are initially targeted to a narrow indication and the field of use is
later broadened by subsequent trials and approvals. As expected, smaller companies (with a market cap at
approval of $1 billion or less) more often chose orphan diseases for drug development, as timelines are usually
shorter and costs lower.
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013
13
New Drug Approvals by Therapeutic Area
We have categorized the new drugs approved by therapeutic areas as listed in the table below. Most obvious is
the increase in cancer drugs (including cancer-related treatments). In 2011 and 2012, cancer drugs accounted
for almost one third of approvals. Drugs (all orphan) approved to treat genetic diseases also grew strongly.
Substantially more immunology drugs were approved in the second half of the decade, mainly targeting
autoimmune diseases such a rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, lupus, Crohn’s disease etc. Approvals of
three new anti-coagulants (one each in 2010, 2011 and 2012 each) drove up approval numbers in the
hematology category. Approval numbers in ophthalmology continued to be quite strong, following in the
footsteps of Lucentis, which was approved in 2003. Last, but not least, three new COPD drugs since 2010
pushed approval numbers higher in the respiratory field.
17.02.11 2011 Corifact coagulation factor XIII (human)
HBM New Drug Approval Report 2013
21
References:
1 “ „FY 2012 Innovative Drug Approvals”, FDA, December 2012 and “FY 2011 Innovative Drug Approvals”; FDA,
December 2011
2 “Impact Innovation Predictability Report” FDA, January 2013
3 "FY 2012 Innovative Drug Approvals", FDA, December 2012
4 “New Molecular Entity Approvals for 2012, FDA website: http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/DrugInnovation/ucm336115.htm
5 “NME Drug and New Biologic Approvals”, FDA website: http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/DevelopmentApprovalProcess/HowDrugsareDevelopedandApproved/DrugandBiologicApprovalReports/ucm121136.htm
6 „The New Reality: Maximizing Product Launches in the Post-Blockbuster World”, Accenture, 2012