Session 01 1 Hazard Risk Management Establish the Context Objectives Stakeholder s Criteria Define key elements Identify the Risks Hazards analysis Vulnerabili ty analysis Analyze the Risks Review controls Likelihoods Consequence s Level of risk Evaluate the Risks Evaluate risks Rank Risks Treat the Risks Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatment plan Implement Communicate and Consult Monitor and Review Emergency Management Australia, 2002. Emergency Risk Manag
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From the plenary Address at the 1996 Meeting Society for Risk Analysis
Theorem 1: 50% of the problems in the world result from people using the same words with different meanings.
Theorem 2: The other 50% comes from people using different words with the same meaning.
Session 01 3
Meanings of the word
RISK
RISK
ColloquialDangerVenture
Opportunity
TechnicalHazard
ProbabilityConsequence
InsuranceChance
Uncertainty
Jardine and Hrudley, 1997. “Mixed Messages in Risk Communication”
Session 01 4
Etymology of ‘RISK’
• The Arabic word risq - “anything that has been given to you [by God] and from which you draw profit.”
• The Latin word risicum - maritime term, described the scenario faced by sailors attempting to circumvent dangers posed by a barrier reef.
From F. Wharton, “Risk Management: Basic Concepts and General Principles”
Session 01 5
RISK
The product of a hazard’s likelihood of occurrence and its consequences to society.
RISK =
LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE
Session 01 6
HAZARDS
“Events or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss.”
- FEMA, 1997
FEMA. 1997. Multi Hazard Identification and Assessment. FEMA. Washington, D.C.
Session 01 7
What makes something a hazard?
If a storm occurs at sea, in an area of no shipping traffic
and where there are no land masses, is it a hazard?
Session 01 8
DISASTER
“A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material, or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources”
- The United Nations, 1992
United Nations, Department of Humanitarian Affairs. 1992. Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management. (DNA/93/36). United Nations. Geneva.
Session 01 9
Is it a DISASTER?
• House fire in Newark, NJ - the house is destroyed, but there are no injuries.
• Brush fire in Arizona - results in the burning of 100,000 acres of unoccupied land, 5 firefighters need to be admitted to the hospital for various injuries. The fire is finally extinguished by members of more than 10 fire departments.
• The Great Chicago Fire of 1871 - the destruction included 28 miles of roads, 120 miles of sidewalk, 2000 lampposts, 18,000 buildings, totaling over $200 million in property damage (1/3 of the value of all property in the city at the time). 200-300 people died.
Session 01 10
Terms Describing EVENTS
AccidentsIncidents
Disturbances
Emergencies
Crises
Tragedies
Catastrophes
Calamities
Disasters
Session 01 11
Sample Linear Taxonomy of ‘Event’ Terminology
An “Incident” is considered to be minor situation;
An “Emergency” a more serious situation;
A “Disaster” a yet more serious situation; and
A “Catastrophe” the most serious situation of all.
Renee Pearce, L.D. 2000. An Integrated Approach For Community Hazard, Impact, Risk and Vulnerability Analysis: HIRV. Excerpt, Doctoral Dissertation, University of British Columbia.
Session 01 12
VULNERABILITY
“The degree of susceptibility and resilience of the community and environment to hazards.”
• Preparedness – “Those activities, programs, and systems that exist prior to an emergency that are used to support and enhance response to an emergency or disaster.”
• Mitigation – “Any action taken to eliminate or reduce the long-term risk to human life and property from hazards.”
Preparedness: FEMA. 1992. Federal Response Plan; With Revisions. FEMA.Mitigation: FEMA. 1999. The Professional in Emergency Management (IS-513). Emergency Management Institute. Emmitsburg, MD.
Session 01 14
SAFE
“A risk becomes safe, or acceptable, if it is associated with the best of the available alternatives, not with the best of the alternatives which we would hope to have available.
Do you agree or disagree?
Derby, S. L., and R. L. Keeney. 1981. “Risk Analysis: Understanding ‘How Safe is Safe Enough’”. Risk Analysis. 1:217-224.
Session 01 15
How safe is safe enough?
• Zero risk per person?
• 1 in a million risk per person?
• 1 in 100,000 risk per person?
• 1 in 10,000 risk per person?
IT DEPENDS!
Session 01 16
Some Odds of Death
Hazard Annual Risk Lifetime RiskCar Accident 1/18,752 1/244Accidental Fall 1/20,728 1/270Accidental Poisoning 1/22,388 1/292Murdered With a Gun 1/25,196 1/328Hit by Car While Walking 1/45,117 1/588Drowning (Accidental) 1/77,308 1/1,008Fire/Smoke Inhalation 1/81,487 1/1,062Lightning 1/ 4,262,813 1/55,578
Memmott, Mark. 2002. Fear may be overwhelming, but so are the odds. USA Today. October 18. p.6A
Session 01 17
Probability
Classical: Probability of getting 2 heads in 3 flips of a coin
Subjective: Probability of Puerto Rico becoming a state in the next 20 years
Frequency: Probability of a person getting in a car accident while talking on their cell phone, over a 1-year period
Jardine and Hrudley, 1997. “Mixed Messages in Risk Communication”