Haynesville Shale ozone impacts 092810.ppt

An Emission Inventory for Natural Gas Development in the Haynesville Shale

and Evaluation of Ozone Impacts

19th International Emission Inventory Conference

September 28, 2010

Susan Kemball-Cook, Amnon Bar-Ilan, John Grant, Lynsey Parker, Jaegun Jung, Wilson Santamaria, and Greg Yarwood

ENVIRON

TemplateTemplate

[email protected]

The Haynesville Shale

• 10,000-13,000 feet 0,000 3,000below surface

• 300’ thick layer of 300 thick layer of sedimentary rock

• M b f l t • May be one of largest natural gas reserves in th U Sthe U.S.

• First highly productive

Figure from the Wall Street Journal, July, 2008

2

wells drilled in 2008

Ozone Air Quality Implications

• Haynesville Shale Counties with Ozone Monitors Violating

Potential Primary Ozone Standard

development economically important

• R l f • Release of ozone precursor emissions within/upwind of potential ozone non-

HaynesvilleShale p

attainment areas• Lower 2010 ozone standard

h i f 70 ppb

65 b enhances importance of understanding impacts of Haynesville Shale on

Figure: U.S. EPA, http://www.epa.gov/air/ozonepollution/pdfs/20100104maps.pdf

65 ppb

60 ppb

3

ay esv e S a e o regional ozone

Emissions from Exploration

Figure from geology.com

Figure from http://www.axpc.us/field/index.html

4

• Drilling, completion, fracing

Horizontal Drilling and Hydraulic Fracturing

5

Figure from energyindustryphotos.com

Emissions from Production

li d i i

• Well site equipment• Compression at wellhead and central stations

www.linde-engineering.com

6

• Compression at wellhead and central stations• Gas processing plants

Study of Haynesville Development

• Estimate future development to 2020• Calculate associated emissions of ozone precursors• Model ozone impacts in 2012p• Study performed in 2009-new information now

available available

7

Projecting Future Development and Emissions

• Future year activity based onN b f ll d ill d h – Number of new wells drilled each year

– Well productivity• All l l i f f i id• Allows calculation of formation-wide

– Well countG d i– Gas production

• Once well count and gas production are forecast, d l i i i t f l ti can develop an emission inventory for exploration

and production activity for the entire Haynesville Shale

8

Shale

Projecting Future Activity

Approximate AnnualBarnett Shale Rig Count

120

140

160

180

200

40

60

80

100

120

Drill Rig CountAverage 2001-2008

0

20

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

• Use historical growth from Barnett Shale to estimate future growth in the Haynesville Shale

• Forecasts of future Haynesville production (8-35 TCF) using this y p ( ) gmethod fall within range of estimates of total recoverable reserves

9

Drill Rig Projections: 3 Scenarios

Average Annual Drill Rig Count

250

150

200

250

lSept. 2010

50

100

150 lowmediumhigh

March 2009

Sept 0 0~145 Rigs

0

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

95 Rigs

• Low scenario: leave March 2009 drill rig count fixed• High scenario: use 2001-2008 Barnett Shale rig count growth, cap

10

growth at 200 rigs• Moderate: 50% of high scenario

Well Number Projections

Cumulative Number of Active Wells

8000

10000

12000

l

4000

6000lowmediumhigh

0

2000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

904 producingwells as

of Sept. 2010

877428

• Texas: 296 active Haynesville wells, 458 permitted (TRRC)• Louisiana: 608 producing wells, 124 being drilled, 499 other

11

Louisiana: 608 producing wells, 124 being drilled, 499 other (completion/frac/testing), 311 permitted not yet drilling, 1542 total Haynesville wells (LDNR)

Formation-Wide Emissions: Moderate Scenario

NOx Emissions VOC Emissions

• Gas processing plants, compressor stations, drill rigs Gas p ocess g p a s, co p esso s a o s, d gsare important sources of NOx and VOCs

• Drill rig emissions fall off after 2017 due to controls

12

• Haynesville development likely to continue past 2020

Projected Haynesville Shale NOx Emissions

ForecastNO E i i (T /D )

20202012Scenario 20202012Scenario

NOx Emissions (Tons/Day)

12782Medium

6461Low

12782Medium

6461Low

267140High 267140High

• Perspective: 50 tons/day roughly equivalent to NOx

13

emissions from a large, coal-fired power plant

CAMx Ozone Model

• May-June 2005 high ozone episode, MPE

• Future year scenarios:– FY 2012 base case

with no Haynesville i i emissions

– FY 2012+Haynesville high, medium and low emissions scenariosemissions scenarios

• HS Impacts (High) = Haynesville High –2012 Base Case2012 Base Case

• Focus on 8-hour ozone impacts– Show high scenario

14

Show high scenario only

Average Regional 8-Hour Ozone Impacts in 2012

• Average impacts > 1 ppb restricted to Northeast Texas,

15

Average impacts > 1 ppb restricted to Northeast Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma

Maximum Regional 8-Hour Ozone Impacts in 2012

• M i i t t d t id N th t T i t th i

16

• Maximum impacts extend outside Northeast Texas into other regions of Texas

Ozone Design Value Impacts in 2012

TXAK

Caddo

Bossier

Harrison

Gregg

Smith

LA

• Design values increase 4-5 ppb at Louisiana monitors

17

Design values increase 4-5 ppb at Louisiana monitors• 4 ppb increase at Harrison, TX monitor• Smaller increases (1-2 ppb) at Gregg and Smith monitors in TX

Summary

• Haynesville Shale development is a concern for future regional air qualityfuture regional air quality

• Early estimates presented here are uncertainMay underestimate NOx because assumed little well– May underestimate NOx because assumed little well-head compression

– May over- or underestimate emissions for other reasonsM y• Additional study is planned and will benefit from

more data regarding well site compression, well g g p ,decline curves, etc.– Input from energy companies would be very useful in

18

constraining the emissions projections

Acknowledgement

• This work was performed on behalf of Northeast A C h f hTexas Air Care, with support from the Texas

Commission on Environmental Quality

19