Haynesville Global Access Pipelinehaynesvilleglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/HGAP... · 2019. 5. 3. · Haynesville: a world class shale play …on the doorstep of US LNG demand

HGAP

Tellurian Midstream Group | April 2019

Haynesville Global Access Pipeline

SW Louisiana: core of US gas demand2025

Notes: LNG demand includes ambient capacity; Sources: company data, Drilling Info, Entergy, Tellurian estimates

2

L o u i s i a n aT e x a s

G u l f o f M e x i c o

Driftwood LNG

Cameron LNG

Sabine Pass LNG

+20 bcf/d of potential demand by 2023-25 includes: (1) Sabine Pass 1-6(2) Cameron LNG 1-5(3) Driftwood LNG(4) Golden Pass(5) Calcasieu Pass(6) Port Arthur LNG(7) Lake Charles(8) Magnolia (9) SASOL(10) Lake Charles CCGT(11) OCI Methanol/Ammonia(12) Exxon Beaumont

expansion

West

Inbound to SWLA (2019)

~11 bcf/d

HaynesvillePerryville/Delhi

Eunice/Station 85

Lake Charles, LA

SW Louisiana is the epicenter of US LNG growth• 11 bcf/d of expected pipeline

capacity not enough for +20 bcf/d of potential demand in 2025

• Need North/South infrastructure to connect supply to demand

Golden Pass LNG

Corpus Christi T1-3Freeport T1-3

Sabine Pass T5-6Cameron T1-5

DriftwoodGolden Pass

CalcasieuPort Arthur

Elba Island

-

5

10

15

20

25

2017 2017-2025Growth

2025 2017 2017-2025Growth

2025 2017 2017-2025Growth

2025

Texas Louisiana Other Gulf Coast*

Sector demand growth 2017-2025 (bcf/d)IndustrialPowerLNG

*MS, AL, GA and FLSource: IHS-Markit (long-term outlook 2H 2018), LNG TELL Analysis; Golden Pass and Port Arthur included in LA due to connectivity

LNG dominates demand growthNo better market in the Southeast or US Gulf Coast than SW Louisiana

3

bcf/d

Haynesville: a world class shale play…on the doorstep of US LNG demand

Source: Drilling Info; Haynesville wet gas produciton at $2.75/MMBtu Henry Hub price

4

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

Jan-

20

Jan-

21

Jan-

22

Jan-

23

Jan-

24

Jan-

25

Jan-

26

Jan-

27

Jan-

28

Jan-

29

Jan-

30

mcf

/d

Arkla - Haynesville Haynesville North East Texas Arkla

Haynesville production built to lastResilient in low gas price environment

Source; RS Energy

5

$1.14 $0.85 $1.04

$0.20 $0.59 $0.59

$0.27 $0.40

$0.38 $0.08

$0.23 $0.24

$0.62

$0.52 $0.63 $2.31

$2.59 $2.88

Haynesville Marcellus Utica

$/m

mBt

u

Competing play breakevens

Capex Operating Transportation Differentials Royalties and Severence

Last mile problemDespite Haynesville’s position, the infrastructure doesn’t exist to bring it to market

Sources: ARI, Drilling Info

6

Carthage

Perryville

Transco St85

FGT Z3HSC

HHAD

441

Marcellus-Utica196

Permian

Anadarko

111

102

Eagle Ford

131Total selected basin shale production,bcf/d

Resource size, tcf

Marcellus pipelines: 7.7 bcf/d

Midship: 1.3 bcf/d

7.3

16.9

2017 2025

5.88.9

2017 2025

5.612.7

2017 2025

7.3 9.8

2017 2025

24.6

38.1

2017 2025Haynesville

50.6

86.4 35.8

2017 2025 Incrementalproduction

KMI: ~4.0 bcf/d

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Del

iver

y

Take

away

Del

iver

y

Take

away

Del

iver

y

Take

away

Del

iver

y

Take

away

Perryville Delhi Inverness Kosci

Shipper delivery vs. takeaway comparison (bcf/d)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Perryville Delhi Inverness Kosci Total NetImbalance

Net pipeline delivery/takeaway (bcf/d)

Market driven out of balanceA significant portion of Northeast pipeline capacity reversals do not reach end-user markets due to physical pipeline constraints

7

Market is looking for new infrastructure to solve the problem

Source: Informational postings on company EBB’s, PointLogic

Perryville basis weakeningHaynesville production largely headed to Perryville/Delhi

Source: iCE, RS Energy

8

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

$(0.30)

$(0.25)

$(0.20)

$(0.15)

$(0.10)

$(0.05)

$-

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr

-16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug

-16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec

-16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr

-17

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Aug

-17

Sep-

17

Oct

-17

Nov

-17

Dec

-17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

bcf

/d

$/m

mBt

u

Perryville Basis to HH Haynesville Production

The worst is yet to comeSouthbound capacity just starting to ramp up

Source: RS Energy Group

9

(8.0)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

Cap

acity

and

Flo

w in

to N

orth

Lou

isia

na (b

cf/d

)

ANR CG Mainline NGPL TGP TGT Trunkline Total Southbound Capacity Annual Average Net Southbound Flows

Other markets becoming less attractiveHouston Ship Channel rolling forward curve –Permian wave looming

Transco Station 85 rolling forward curve – Northeast volumes are coming

10

-$0.20

-$0.15

-$0.10

-$0.05

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

MA

Y 19

NO

V 1

9

MA

Y 20

NO

V 2

0

MA

Y 21

NO

V 2

1

MA

Y 22

NO

V 2

2

MA

Y 23

NO

V 2

3

$/m

mBt

u

52 WK Range Last 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year

Source: Bloomberg, ICE

-$0.08

-$0.07

-$0.06

-$0.05

-$0.04

-$0.03

-$0.02

-$0.01

$0.00

MA

Y 19

AUG

19

NO

V 1

9

FEB

20

MA

Y 20

AUG

20

NO

V 2

0

FEB

21

MA

Y 21

AUG

21

NO

V 2

1

FEB

22

MA

Y 22

AUG

22

NO

V 2

2

FEB

23

MA

Y 23

AUG

23

NO

V 2

3

$/m

mBt

u

52 WK Range Last 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year

Louisiana gas flows and basis - 2023RBN Energy Haynesville S&D (bcf/d):

Production: 9.6Demand: 0.5 Net Outflows: 9.1

South Louisiana S&D (bcf/d):Production: 2.6Demand: 4.1 Net Inflows: 1.5Imbalance -0.8-$0.45

2.2

7.9

1.7

0.6

1.9 8.7

1.5

*Haynesville, Bossier, Cotton Valley (Terryville)

Perryville S&D (bcf/d):Production: 0.0Demand: 0.2 Net Inflows: 0.2

3.9

5.5-$0.40

TCO-$0.62

Haynesville*East Texas Transco St 85

Perryville

South LA

Katy/Ship

HGAPMap & Terms

HGAP route

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HGAP anticipated receipts

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Note: Actual meter size/location to be determined after the open season closes, PGAP determines the shippers’ desired receipts and verifies the interconnect with third-party pipeline.

HGAP anticipated deliveries

Note: Actual meter size/location to be determined after the open season closes, PGAP determines the shippers’ desired deliveries and verifies the interconnect with third-party pipeline.

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Thank you