Havas Worldwide Trendbook 2014

14 TRENDS FOR 2014

We almost didn’t bother issuing trends for 2014 when every Tom, Dick and Harry—and Jane, Megan and Martha—have anointed themselves trendspotters. And maybe they should, since 2013 is what we’re calling the Year of the Everyday Trendspotter.

As with cooking, today’s short-order trend observer and

fabricator has more or less replaced the master chef in serving up

bits and bytes of observations about the next. Mommy bloggers

know the parenting horizon, hipsters know the urban landscape,

fashionistas design the blend of black meets blue.

With smart search and up-to-the-second updates, anyone with a

deep interest and a keen eye in their chosen field can gather the

latest, interpret what’s happening and talk trends. Not everyone

who pitches in will hit the jackpot, but the law of averages says

that the new wave of trendspotters will yield some real talent.

Is trendspotting knowing, or just seeing right around the corner?

Who knows. (And does knowing even matter in the age of instant

answers and real-time gratification?)

With all that, what we do know is that this might well be the

last year for an annual roundup. So here goes for what’s on the

horizon.

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TINKERING AND EXPERIMENTATION —THE ÜBERTREND IN A WORLD THAT’S DYSFUNCTIONAL, STUCK OR BROKEN

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TINKERING AND EXPERIMENTATION —THE ÜBERTREND IN A WORLD THAT’S DYSFUNCTIONAL, STUCK OR BROKEN

The world has perhaps become too complex and too fast-moving

for complicated top-down solutions to work in government,

corporations or big organizations. Fortunately, other approaches

are emerging. If geeks have taught us anything, it’s that innovation

and solutions come from a whole lot of people tinkering with existing

technology and seeing what they can come up with.

The old and much maligned notion of computer hacking has

morphed into more benign forms of tinkering such as Lifehacker

and HackingWork. This spirit of hacking is the übertrend of our

times as people struggle to deal with a whole stack of problems:

economic woes, political polarization, gridlock social problems and

environmental crises. Whatever the problem, you can be sure that

somewhere out there, some smart people will be tinkering quietly

with it or boldly challenging the status quo.

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GUILT MONEY DOES GOOD—

LOTS OF GOOD—THROUGH NEW AND INNOVATIVE

PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS

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Fewer and fewer ills and issues will be solved by decrees that

are more driven by ideology than based on practical experience.

Fortunately, the rise of the collaborative society means that

personal monies will be channeled into state schools, city parks

and even federal highways, if that is what it takes to restore our

peace of mind or some semblance of a competitive quality of life.

Some of that money will be motivated by guilt (being part of the

1 percent can be pretty uncomfortable), some will carry the stamp

of ego, some will demonstrate donors’ political principles and some

will flow from good old public spiritedness. But who cares, as long

as the money moves and things start to happen? Some will work,

some won’t. Right now, there are no hard-and-fast rules and no

surefire formulas. Time will tell.

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GUILT MONEY DOES GOOD—

LOTS OF GOOD—THROUGH NEW AND INNOVATIVE

PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS

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TO BREAK UP, OR NOT TO BREAK UP: THAT IS THE QUESTION—FOR COUNTRIES AND STATES IN 2014

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Maybe big nation-states are too cumbersome for today’s fast-

changing world. Many were patched together by nation-builders who

appealed to people’s common language, culture and interests. Now

hyperconnectivity not only shrinks time and space among countries, but

it also makes people realize the value of their local ties within countries.

It enables small, cohesive states to make a big, global impact without

needing to be big. Think: Nordic countries, Singapore and Hong Kong.

In Europe, Scotland is preparing for a 2014 referendum on leaving the

U.K. and becoming an independent country, and the U.K. Independence

Party is rooting for its country to leave the EU. There are even

suggestions that London become independent from the U.K. In Spain,

Catalonia wants its own referendum to leave Spain. And the States are

looking increasingly less united as talk of secession sweeps the country,

with separatist movements brewing in Texas, Alaska and Vermont.

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TO BREAK UP, OR NOT TO BREAK UP: THAT IS THE QUESTION—FOR COUNTRIES AND STATES IN 2014

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OVER-60s SEEK NEW ROLES AS THEY RETHINK THE MEANING OF LIFE BEYOND MIDDLE AGE

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Back before the economic bust, turning 60 meant getting ready

to leave the world of work and easing through the twilight years,

passing the time with easy-on-the-body leisure activities. It was a

time for winter months in warmer places, hobbies, a little travel and

lots of hanging out with the grandchildren. Now longer life spans

and threadbare retirement plans are forcing a big rethink of what

life can be about into the 60s and beyond.

What can over-60s’ working life be about when jobs are in short

supply for young people looking to get a start in work? What can

over-60s contribute to a world where digital savvy is essential and

life happens at warp speed? There are no ready-made answers, but

there’s a huge demographic with every incentive to invent worthwhile

new roles. Watch as the word senior morphs from an embarrassing

arms-length euphemism to a badge of pride and respect.

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OVER-60s SEEK NEW ROLES AS THEY RETHINK THE MEANING OF LIFE BEYOND MIDDLE AGE

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WHO’S NEXT AFTERPOPE FRANCIS MOVES AHEAD

WITH REBRANDING THE WORLD’S OLDEST ORGANIZATION?

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It’s tempting to wonder whether Pope Francis took a behind-the-

scenes doctorate in branding and marketing. Less than a year into

his papacy, he has thoroughly refreshed an ancient brand brought

low by scandal. Out of the blue, he personally calls people for a

chat, he tweets and he thinks differently than his predecessors

about a whole range of key issues. The Pope Francis effect has

scored stellar media coverage but no significant uptick in people

identifying as Catholics—yet.

It’s not just in the Vatican that a new style is emerging. In Iran, new

president Hassan Rouhani celebrated his position with an MTV-

style video that’s apparently inspired by Barack Obama’s 2008

“Yes We Can” classic. Like the pope, Rouhani has decided that

having his own Twitter account is a smart way to connect with the

wider world.

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WHO’S NEXT AFTERPOPE FRANCIS MOVES AHEAD

WITH REBRANDING THE WORLD’S OLDEST ORGANIZATION?

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MINTS MAKE THE RUNNING AS BRICS DROP OFF THE PACE

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It has been more than a decade since economist Jim O’Neill

flagged the BRIC countries as the world’s hot investment tip. And

sure enough, the market indices of Brazil, Russia, India and China

grew 154 percent between 2004 and 2012 compared with around

28 percent for the S&P 500. But now the BRICs have lost a lot of

their PR shine. It’s touch and go as to whether Brazil will be ready

in time for the 2014 soccer World Cup. Before then, expect Russia

to face controversy in the runup to the Winter Olympics in Sochi.

India’s economic outlook is getting worse, and China’s economy is

looking shaky.

O’Neill is now tipping a new foursome, which he has dubbed MINT

(Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey), with big, young, dynamic

populations and strong economic prospects. Will the MINTs have

what it takes to freshen up a stale world economy?

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MINTS MAKE THE RUNNING AS BRICS DROP OFF THE PACE

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THE WORKPLACE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE MILLENNIALS

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The next normal? Constant feedback and networking, no negative

phrases, and two steps sideways to take three steps forward will

evolve as social business begins upstaging the business practices

of the last decade. Like them or not, the aspirations, values and

style of millennials are shifting from intern oddities to mainstream

normal in the workplace and marketplace.

Watch Stanford’s d.school replace Harvard’s B School as the gotta-

get-to, and the Summit Series become more Davos than Davos for

young dealmakers. Move over, boomer. Park your sarcasm, Mr. and

Ms. X. The millennials have risen, and they will reshape the world in

their image.

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THE WORKPLACE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE MILLENNIALS

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TALKING ALTERNATIVES

TO CAPITALISM AS WE KNOW IT TO DELIVER JOBS

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With aftershocks from the 2007-08 economic earthquake still

rippling around the world, a lot of people are losing faith in the let-

it-rip free-market capitalism that drove the long boom. Where did

all the money go? Where did all the old jobs go? Where will new

jobs come from? Are long years of economic pain inevitable?

Money woes for the majority and gigabucks for the fortunate few

are fueling a rise in economic populism. In floundering France, the

right-wing firebrand Marine Le Pen’s National Front is denouncing

banks and cross-border capitalism, helping to make it the most

popular party in the country. In the United States, left-of-center

Sen. Elizabeth Warren has become a hot political ticket by going

to bat for the middle class and criticizing big corporations and

financial institutions. It looks like an idea with legs. As behavioral

economist Dan Ariely found, Americans want to live in a much

more equal country, but they just don’t realize it.

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TALKING ALTERNATIVES

TO CAPITALISM AS WE KNOW IT TO DELIVER JOBS

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GETTING DOWN AND DIRTY WITH PREBIOTICS AND THE MICROBIOME

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There’s usually an eager market for miracle cures, especially if they

don’t involve a whole lot of effort or a major change of lifestyle. As

health foods go, it’s hard to beat the appeal of red wine, coffee and

chocolate—all in moderation, of course. One of the most promising

new approaches to all-around health might take a little longer to

gain traction, though, as it’s about cultivating bugs rather than

zapping them.

Scientists are exploring the health effects of the body’s microbiome—

the billions of bacteria, viruses and fungi that live all over the body,

outside and in. Having the right bugs in the digestive tract plays

a crucial role in health. Encouraging them with prebiotics (that’s

pre-, not pro-) and even fecal transplants is shaping up as a solid

approach to tackling a whole range of health problems including

obesity, allergies and autoimmune conditions.

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GETTING DOWN AND DIRTY WITH PREBIOTICS AND THE MICROBIOME

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FORGET DUMBING DOWN: TV IS SMARTING UP WITH LONG-FORM EPICS

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Although the Internet is arguably making attention spans shorter and

Hollywood is doubling down on sugar-rush blockbusters for young

audiences, TV is steering hard in the opposite direction with a growing

body of complex long-form dramas. The recently finished five-

season epic “Breaking Bad” joins an illustrious roster including “The

Sopranos,” “The Wire,” “Mad Men,” “Boardwalk Empire,” “Homeland”

and dark Nordic thrillers such as “The Killing,” out of Denmark.

So much for instant gratification. It takes a lot of commitment and

concentration to follow complex storylines that unfold over dozens

of episodes delivered weekly over months. For impatient long-form

addicts, on-demand streaming services are taking the waiting out

of watching, delivering back-to-back episodes for binge viewing.

With hundreds of hours of compelling drama accumulating in

box sets, on DVRs and on VOD services, the market for consumer

attention is getting even tougher.

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FORGET DUMBING DOWN: TV IS SMARTING UP WITH LONG-FORM EPICS

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CARS ARE GETTING SMARTER, BUT WALKING WILL BECOME THE ULTIMATE LUXURY

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Cars are a lot smarter than they used to be, that’s for sure. Engine

management technology makes them more efficient, GPS and sat

nav guide your trip, and proximity sensors help you avoid fender

benders on the way. Pretty soon, cars will be even smarter. Google’s

pioneering driverless cars are facing competition from more

established automotive brands such as Volvo and Mercedes-Benz.

But as smart as cars might become, getting around by that mode

of transportation increasingly seems much less smart than it

used to. Americans spend a lot of time in their cars—as much as

18.5 hours a week, according to one estimate—and an average of

38 hours a year stuck in traffic. That’s a lot of sitting that doesn’t do

much for productivity, let alone improve weight or fitness. Living

within walking distance of stores, restaurants and work will emerge

as an all-around quality-of-life luxury.

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CARS ARE GETTING SMARTER, BUT WALKING WILL BECOME THE ULTIMATE LUXURY

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mPOS WILL DO TO CASH AND CARDS WHAT ONLINE DID TO BRICKS AND MORTAR

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It has been almost two decades since the end of cash was seriously

mooted. Since then, the world has moved onto the Internet and

embraced online banking and e-commerce. Toting all that bulky

loose change and an awkward wad of bank notes is sooooo last

century, now that we can carry around a convenient wad of credit

cards and debit cards and store cards, plus a little cash just in case.

On second thought, those stacks of plastic cards are looking pretty

last century, too. Check out the Kenyans. They’ve become world

leaders in using cellphones for most of their financial transactions,

from paying taxi drivers to transferring money. Now other countries

are catching on to the idea of the mobile wallet, or mPOS. Over half

of Americans (51 percent) believe that cash registers are just too

old school. Cellphones are already serving as newspapers, music

players, health trackers and destination finders; it’s a short step to

using them for payments.

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mPOS WILL DO TO CASH AND CARDS WHAT ONLINE DID TO BRICKS AND MORTAR

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THE YIN OF VIRTUAL LIVING DRIVING THE YANG OF HANDS-ON ACTIVITIES

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It’s hard to imagine life without ever-present screens. American

adults now spend an average of just over five hours a day with

digital media devices and more than 4.5 hours with TV. In the U.K.,

it’s estimated that people spend over 11 hours a day on screens.

Whether all that screen time is with TVs or digital devices, that’s a

lot of static time when the hands are doing little more than typing,

touching a screen or wielding a remote.

It’s causing health concerns and driving a desire to engage in

hands-on creative activities. Watch the spread of fabrication

laboratories—“fab labs”—giving inventors, innovators, hackers

and DIYers the tools to put bits and bytes to work in the real world

of atoms.

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THE YIN OF VIRTUAL LIVING DRIVING THE YANG OF HANDS-ON ACTIVITIES

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ARTISANAL EVERYTHING—COMBINING SAVOIR FAIRE WITH ENTREPRENEUR

TO CREATE JOIE DE VIVRE

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Sooner or later, the world gets around to adopting the best of French

words and ideas. Despite popular legend and national stereotypes, the

French do have a word for entrepreneur, which is a French word. Now

the hottest Gallic meme is “artisanal,” which translates as “crafted” but

with a certain je ne sais quoi that only a French concept can have. With

its nuances of small-scale, traditional and patient expertise, it’s perfect for

people who value authenticity and terroir over mass-produced blandness.

There’s infinite scope for artisanal products. Anyone who can’t make the

trip to France can check out Brooklyn, “ground zero of the artisanal-food

universe” with its pickle beer and beef jerky. And anyone who can’t get

to Brooklyn or San Francisco or Omaha or Portland can check out the

possibilities for doing it themselves. Amazon has thousands of books

on everything from baking bread and making cheese and chocolate to

welding, making jewelry and building timber frames. And in case you

were wondering, there’s nothing on artisanal trendspotting—yet.

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ARTISANAL EVERYTHING—COMBINING SAVOIR FAIRE WITH ENTREPRENEUR

TO CREATE JOIE DE VIVRE

@havasprus200 Madison Ave.New York, NY 10016

Marian Salzman, CEOE: [email protected]: +1 646-361-1837T: @mariansalzman