Has the economic downturn influenced school-leaver destinations? Presentation to the CEET Annual Conference 30 October 2009 Trish Corrie (DEECD) & Phillip.

Has the economic downturn influenced school-leaver destinations?

Presentation to the CEET Annual Conference30 October 2009

Trish Corrie (DEECD) & Phillip McKenzie (ACER)

Table 1: Unemployment rate by age group, Victoria, Sept 2008 to Sept 2009 (%)

Age group

Sept 2008

Dec 2008

March2009

June 2009

Sept 2009

15-64 4.4 4.5 5.4 5.9 5.9

15-19 11.9 13.3 18.3 17.8 19.7Source: ABS

2

Youth labour market changes

• Teenage unemployment has risen more sharply than general unemployment

• Broadly consistent with changes in youth education and employment patterns in previous downturns

• Early school leavers likely to be most at risk• Need to monitor changes, feed information back

to education providers, & target support to those at risk

3

4

On Track is….

• An annual Victorian post-school destination survey for Year 12 completers and early leavers

• Incoming Bracks Government initiative to provide destination information to schools, parents and students

• First survey 2003

5

On Track Objectives

In addition to the information commitment:• Provide data on trends of post-school

destinations over time• Provide evidence of relationships between

curriculum, location, gender, achievement and SES, and destinations

• Design longitudinal studies to better understand relationships

• Offer a referral service to those at risk

6

Main features

• In scope? • Consent process• Data aids Government schools to set transition

targets for specific cohorts and measure progress towards targets

• And DEECD corporate performance for Year 12 and early leaver transitions to education, training or full time employment is measured using On Track data

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Methodology • Annual Year 12 and early leaver sample subject to bias

check • Telephone surveys conducted in April and May each year

preceded by Victoria wide FM radio campaign to remind consenting students to participate when called. Parents as proxies may give current destination only

• Questionnaire development involves DEECD policy units each year

• Questionnaire pilot tested and ongoing briefings while in the field

Table 2: Respondents & response rates

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Consented Interviewed Response Rate

Year 12 or equivalent completers

2009 44 968 36 022 80.1%

2008 43 607 33 249 76.2%

Early leavers

2009 8 857 4 676 52.8%

2008 8 866 4 470 53.5%

Figure 1: Destinations of Year 12 completersVictoria: 2008 and 2009

9

44.1

14.4

3.75.8

4.1

11.5 12.6

3.8

45.9

14.3

3.8 4.73.3

9.0

13.8

5.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

University VET Cert IV+ VET entry-level

Apprentice Trainee Working full-time

Working part-time

Looking for work

Per c

ent o

f Yea

r 12

com

plet

ers

2008 2009

Year 12 completers and the current economic situation

• ‘How has the current economic situation influenced your decisions about what to do after leaving school?’

• 22.4% said that it has had an influence on their decisions

• In what ways? …

10

Figure 3: Year 12 completers and the current economic situation

11

17.4

15.013.9 13.4

9.9

7.3 6.77.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Job/hours more

important

Can't find a job

Chosen different

career path

Considering different

career path

Encouraged me to

consider study

Now looking at options

Worried about jobs

Can't say

Per c

ent o

f tho

se in

fluen

ced

by cu

rren

t eco

nom

ic si

tuati

on

Figure 2: Destinations of Year 12 completersDeferrals: Victoria (2008 and 2009)

12

*Not in the labour force, education or training. This group is not included in other destination statistics. In 2008 seven deferrals were undertaking an apprenticeship or traineeship; they are not included here.

45.5

40.7

8.35.5

35.4

49.3

11.0

4.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Employed full-time Employed part-time Looking for work NILFET*

Per c

ent o

f def

erra

ls

2008 2009

Figure 4: Destinations of early leaversVictoria: 2008 and 2009

13

3.6

11.0

33.2

7.3

15.4 15.514.0

5.0

12.5

30.3

5.5

13.015.0

18.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

VET Cert IV+ VET entry-level Apprentice Trainee Employed full-time

Employed part-time

Looking for work

Per c

ent o

f ear

ly le

aver

s

2008 2009

Early leavers and the current economic situation

• ‘How has the current economic situation influenced your decisions about what to do after leaving school?’

• 23.0% said that it has had an influence on their decisions.

• In what ways? …

14

Figure 5: Early leavers and the current economic situation (Victoria)

15

21.119.4

13.3

10.7

7.9 7.9

5.84.7 4.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Job/hours more

important

Can't find a job Can't say Chosen different

career path

Considering different

career path

Decided to work before

study

Apprenticeship hard to find

Encouraged me to consider

study

Other

Per c

ent o

f tho

se in

fluen

ced

by cu

rren

t eco

nom

ic si

tuati

on

Conclusions

• Impact evident in increased education participation, decreased apprenticeships & traineeships, decreased employment, increased unemployment

• Increase in deferrals of tertiary education, but reduced capacity to finance entry

• Impact more marked for early leavers than completers

• Implications for preparing leavers and early intervention for those at-risk

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On Track queries and publication details

Please direct questions or comment to:Dr Trish CorrieOn Track Project Managert: 03.9637.2802e: [email protected]

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All On Track publications are available at:http://www.education.vic.gov.au/sensecyouth/ontrack