HAS SHANGHAI’S TRANSPORTATION DEMAND PASSED ITS PEAK GROWTH? ZHAN ZHAO, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, EMAIL:[email protected]JINHUA ZHAO, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING/SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING,UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, EMAIL: [email protected]This is an abridged version of the paper presented at the conference. The full version is being submitted elsewhere. Details on the full paper can be obtained from the author.
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HAS SHANGHAI’S TRANSPORTATION DEMAND PASSED ITS PEAKGROWTH?
ZHAN ZHAO, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA,EMAIL:[email protected]
JINHUA ZHAO, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING/SCHOOL OF COMMUNITY AND REGIONALPLANNING,UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, EMAIL: [email protected]
This is an abridged version of the paper presented at the conference. The full version is being submitted elsewhere.Details on the full paper can be obtained from the author.
Has Shanghai’s Transportation Demand Passed Its Peak? ZHAO, Zhan; ZHAO, Jinhua
13th WCTR, July 15-18, 2013 – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
1
HAS SHANGHAI’S TRANSPORTATION DEMAND PASSED ITS PEAK GROWTH?
Zhan Zhao, Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia, Email:
Source: The fourth comprehensive travel survey of Shanghai, 2009; Shanghai Statistical Yearbooks, 1978-2010; Xu et al. 2007, calculations by author * For annual growth of urbanized area, growth rates during 1984-1993 and 1993-2002 are used to estimate the growth rates in
1986-1995 and 1995-2004. The growth rate after 2004 is unavailable.
4. DIVERSIFICATION OF TRAVEL DEMAND
It is widely recognized that travel demand is derived from the demand to perform activities in
different locations. Thus travel purpose is a key feature of travel demand, which has influence
on other travel decisions (e.g. mode choice). In Shanghai, it seems that people have growing
demand for participation of activities other than work or school. This is evidenced by the
rising proportion of non-commuting travel (neither to nor from one’s usual workplace or
school), from 32% in 1995, to 49% in 2004, and to 51% in 2009. One explanation could be
people are more likely to “choose to travel” rather than just “being required to travel” (e.g.
commuting). It is further found that the rise of non-commuting travel demand mainly come
from shopping travel. This is primarily driven by rocketing income and consumption power.
Since commuting travel is relative fixed in terms of choice of destination, travel path, travel
duration and time of day, it may be concluded that Shanghai residents’ travel demand is more
and more diverse. Non-commuting travel is usually more elastic than commuting travel.
Rising income and new technologies release the constraint of travel cost both in terms of
money and time. Therefore, non-commuting travel demand is growing in a faster pace than
commuting travel demand.
The increasing share of non-commuting travel demand could bring about two consequences.
Firstly, such change could favor the flexibility and convenience of private transportation
modes like car. Thus more and more people in Shanghai choose to own a car. Motorization is
further discussed in Section 6. Secondly, because non-commuting travel does not have a strict
constraint on time of travel, more people are likely to make trips during off-peak hours to
avoid peak-hour congestion. An examination of the temporal distribution of trips indicates
Has Shanghai’s Transportation Demand Passed Its Peak? ZHAO, Zhan; ZHAO, Jinhua
13th WCTR, July 15-18, 2013 – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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that the peaking effect of travel demand seems to become weaker. Travel demand seems to be
more evenly distributed across time of day, but that peak-hour traffic is still highly congested
since the absolute number of demand is, although in a slower pace, increasing.
5. DIFFUSION OF TRAVEL DEMAND
In terms of spatial distribution of travel demand, survey data is analyzed by region. Based on
the Inner Ring Road and the Outer Ring Road, Shanghai can be divided into 3 regions: central
district (area within the Inner Ring), periphery district (area between the Inner Ring and the
Outer Ring), and suburb (area outside the Outer Ring). The central city is used to refer the
area within the Outer Ring, which is a combination of the central district and periphery
district. Overall, travel demand still concentrates in central city. 61% of trips performed in
central city. However, if looking at the change of spatial distribution of travel demand, it is
found that total travel demand in central district is decreasing while most increase happens in
periphery district and suburb. We can also look at the travel demand distribution between
Puxi (west of Huangpu River) and Pudong (east of Huangpu River). The results show that the
increase in travel demand is much more significant in Pudong than in Puxi. Within central
district, travel demand has grown drastically in Pudong but actually decreased in Puxi. The
shift of travel demand from the high-density (in terms of density of travel demand) central
district to low-density periphery and suburban area, and from high-density Puxi to low-
density Pudong, indicates the diffusion of travel demand. Such changes in spatial distribution
of demand are primarily caused by land use changes.
To accommodate the huge demand for dynamic economic activities and the fast increasing in
inflow population, the expansion of the city is inevitable. Urban sprawl around the central
district or central city has been the main pattern for Shanghai�s spatial expansion (Y. Li, Ye,
Chen, Abdel-Aty, & Cen, 2010). The urban built-up areas experienced remarkable expansion,
increasing from 1505 km2 in the 2003 to 2288 km2 in 2008. 35% of the increase happened in
near suburban area. One key feature of Shanghai urban expansion is the development of
Pudong, which reshaped the balance in the two sides of Huangpu River. A large number of
residences and jobs were moved to Pudong. Meanwhile, a series of transportation
infrastructure projects connecting Puxi and were carried out, such as Nanpu Bridge (1991),
Yangpu Bridge (1993), and Xupu Bridge (1997). In return, the traffic volume across Huangpu
River increased dramatically from 127 thousand pcu/day in 1995 to 864 thousand pcu/day in
2009.
An internal spatial restructuring of the city took place simultaneously with the outward
expansion of its urbanized area. Land use in the urban core was reconfigured, with significant
amounts of residential and industrial land converting to commercial land after 1988 (Xu, Liao,
Shen, Zhang, & Mei, 2007). These changes were realized through urban renewal and real
estate development. Consequently, residents have moved from the high-density central district
(Puxi) to relatively low-density-periphery district and suburban area (Pudong), making the
trip demand diffuse in the same direction. Meanwhile, low housing price in periphery and
suburban area (Pudong) is also attractive for new immigrants. Thus the increase of population
happens outside Inner Ring (in Pudong). While population moves out of the central district
(Puxi), number of jobs is still clustering (see Table 3). This contributes to the separation of
Has Shanghai’s Transportation Demand Passed Its Peak? ZHAO, Zhan; ZHAO, Jinhua
13th WCTR, July 15-18, 2013 – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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housing and employment, resulting in the increase of long-distance trips between the central
district and outside (and between Puxi and Pudong).
Table 3 - Change Rate of Distribution of Population, Job and Number of Trips
Region Area Population Number of Jobs Number of Trips
Note: The unit for population is 106 persons, the unit for job is 10
6 jobs, and the unit for trip is 10
6 trips/d. A trip in a region is
defined as a trip performed by a resident in the region
Source: The fourth comprehensive travel survey of Shanghai, 2009; calculations by author
Like diversification of travel demand, demand diffusion can also lead to people shifting to
private motor vehicles. When the urban space was limited, walking and cycling were more
appropriate modes of trip. Due the urban expansion, the percentage of walking and cycling
decreases greatly because the distance makes those modes impractical. Apart from expansion,
travel demand also becomes more dispersed. As a result, it is more costly and difficult to
design an efficient and effective transit system to serve the increasingly disperse demand. On
the contrary the advantages of using private motor vehicles, such as more comfort, door-to-
door service, etc., bring about more trips by private motor vehicles.
6. RAPID MOTORIZATION
Because of rapid economic growth and land use transformation, trip distance is increasing,
and travel demand is more diverse and diffused. All of these trends are favorable to the
adoption of private motor vehicles, leading to rapid motorization. On one hand, people want
to own cars. On the other hand, people can afford to own cars. Rising personal wealth, and
technological improvement and commercialization of private motor vehicles makes owning a
car a viable option. Rapid motorization contributes to the worsening traffic congestion. In
Shanghai, the average motor vehicle travel speed on roads in the central area ranges from 9 to
18 km/h (Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute, 2005b). Although
congestion causes reducing mobility for auto users, it has an even larger influence on surface
transit users than for auto users. And for the numerous individuals newly acquiring cars in the
developing world, mobility is rising (Gakenheimer, 1999). Therefore, more people are
attracted to use motor vehicles, in turn adding to traffic congestion.
Has Shanghai’s Transportation Demand Passed Its Peak? ZHAO, Zhan; ZHAO, Jinhua
13th WCTR, July 15-18, 2013 – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Figure 1 - Mode share comparison across years in Shanghai
Source: The fourth comprehensive travel survey of Shanghai, 2009; Shen, 1997 Note: mode share for private motor vehicle and electric bike is not available before 1995
Motorization can lead to two results. One result is a clear shift from non-motorized modes to
private motorized modes. The mode share change in the past three decades is investigated.
The modal split data before 1995 is cited from Shen (1997) who indicated Shanghai City
Comprehensive Transport Planning Institute to be the original source. The results show that
walking has been declining throughout the period between 1981 and 2009; biking peaked in
1995 with a mode share of 38.7% and declined dramatically to 13.5% in 2009; public transit
reached its nadir in 1995 and then recovered to 25.2% mode share in 2009; and private motor
vehicle and electric bike increased all the way since 1995 (see Figure 1). Overall, people are
shifting from non-motorized modes to motorized modes. Within motorized modes, the mode
share for private motorized modes is growing much faster than that for public transportation.
Road transportation is the key component of the urban transportation system, and is usually
where congestion happens. In road transportation, various modes coexist and share similar
resources. What directly influences the traffic condition is not how many people on road but
how many vehicles (or pedestrian). In Shanghai, while total turnover volume (person
kilometers traveled) in road system only increased by 10%, total road traffic volume (PCU
kilometers traveled) increased at a faster pace, reaching 133 million pcu-kilometers per day,
an increase of 45% from 2004 (see Table 4). This means only 10% out of total 45% increase
in traffic volume can be explained by more and longer trips, while the other 35% is mainly
caused by rapid motorization, evidenced by significantly rising share of automobiles in both
traffic volume and turnover volume. It may be concluded that the major reason for the
growing demand in road system is not that people travel more, but people use motorized
vehicles more.
Table 4 - Change of the Passenger Traffic Demand Decomposed by Mode in Central City
Bus Taxi
Social Motor Vehicle*
Motorcycle NMV Total
Traffic Volume
Has Shanghai’s Transportation Demand Passed Its Peak? ZHAO, Zhan; ZHAO, Jinhua
13th WCTR, July 15-18, 2013 – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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106 PCU
Kilometers 2004
6.2 14.81 30.75 8.52 4.67 64.95
2009
5.8 18.1 60.5 6.8 4.85 96.05
Share 2004
6.7% 16.1% 33.4% 9.3% 5.1% 100.0%
2009
4.3% 13.6% 45.3% 5.1% 3.6% 100.0%
Change -6% 22% 97% -20% 4% 48%
Turnover Volume
106 Person
Kilometers 2004
49.92 18.23 75.5 21.4 52.92 217.97
2009
49.79 19.85 102.35 18.31 48.55 238.85
Share 2004
22.9% 8.4% 34.6% 9.8% 24.3% 100.0%
2009
20.8% 8.3% 42.9% 7.7% 20.3% 100.0%
Change 0% 9% 36% -14% -8% 10%
Note: The unit for traffic volume is 106 pcu-kilometers per day, and the unit for turnover volume is 10
6 person-kilometers per day
Source: The fourth comprehensive travel survey of Shanghai, 2009; calculations by author * Social motor vehicle refers to the motor vehicle other than bus, taxi and motorcycle
The other result of motorization is decreasing vehicle occupancy. While turnover volume for
social motor vehicles (motor vehicles other than buses, taxis and motorcycles) only increased
by 36%, traffic volume rose by 97%. Dividing turnover volume of social vehicles by traffic
volume reveals that the average number of people onboard decreased from 2.5 to 1.7,
suggesting more single occupancy vehicles on roads. Therefore, it suggests that people in
Shanghai tend to be not only more likely to use motor vehicles, but also less likely to share
them with others. Besides, average number of people on board has decreased for taxies and
non-motorized vehicles, and increased for bus and motorcycle.
Increasing mode share and decreasing occupancy for private motor vehicles can lead to
unequal distribution of road resources. As for road transit, it was responsible for more than 20
percent of turnover volume but only took up about 5% of traffic volume. Similar finding also
applied to non-motorized vehicles (NMV). Such distribution of road resources is not efficient,
and the situation is worsening as the motorization level in Shanghai continues to go up.
To understand the impacts of traffic on road infrastructure, PCU kilometers traveled may be a
better indicator than person kilometers traveled. Again, annual growth rate and annual
absolute growth are calculated separately for PCU kilometers traveled (representing vehicle
travel demand) and person kilometers traveled (representing person travel demand). It is
found that the annual growth rate for vehicle travel demand declined after 2004, which is the
same with person travel demand, but the decline for vehicle is relatively less pronounced (see
Table 5). The annual absolute growth for vehicle travel demand is in an upward trend, which
is the opposite of person travel demand. This suggests vehicle travel demand is growing in a
different and possibly more complex pattern compared to person travel demand. In terms of
annual growth rate, vehicle travel demand, although growing in a faster rate than person
travel, is found to have begun to slow down the pace; but in terms of annual absolute growth,
it is still in fast growing and has not reached its peak. This may suggest that transportation
demand in Shanghai has been evolving from increasing travel frequency and distance
(quantity) to greater travel speed and comfort (quality).
Has Shanghai’s Transportation Demand Passed Its Peak? ZHAO, Zhan; ZHAO, Jinhua
13th WCTR, July 15-18, 2013 – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Table 5 - Change of Motor Vehicle Traffic Volume and Person Travel Demand
Periods
Annual Growth Rate Annual Absolute Growth
Person Kilometers
Traveled (·106 km/d)
PCU Kilometers
Traveled (·106 km/d)
Person Kilometers
Traveled (·106 km/d)
PCU Kilometers
Traveled (·106 km/d)
1986-1995 2.6% NA 2.69 NA
1995-2004 7.8% 11.0% 12.83 5.92
2004-2009 3.2% 8.1% 7.82 8.26 Source: The fourth comprehensive travel survey of Shanghai, 2009; calculation by author
7. PLANNING AND POLICY ACTIONS
In order to meet the rising travel demand and to mitigate the pace of motorization, the
Shanghai local government has developed various measures. Looking back at the history of