Harry Wirth Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ...ahkbusiness.de/fileadmin/ahk_business_br/Eventos_2015/Harry_Wirth... · Module check - performance - reliability ... Flash

© Fraunhofer ISE

SAFE YIELDS FROM PV POWER PLANTS

Harry Wirth

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

PV Investor Day

Recife, June 17th, 2015

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

© Fraunhofer ISE

SAFE YIELDS FROM PV POWER PLANTS

Harry Wirth

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

PV Investor Day

Rio, June 19th, 2015

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

© Fraunhofer ISE

3

OUTLINE

1. Quality, bankability and investability

2. Project development

3. Engineering

4. Procurement

5. Construction

6. Operation

7. Conclusions

© Fraunhofer ISE

4

Fraunhofer ISEFields of Activity

� Photovoltaics

� Silicon PV

� Concentrator PV

� Emerging PV

� PV Modules and Power Plants

� Solar Thermal Technology

� Energy Efficient Buildings

� Hydrogen Technology

� Energy System Technology

Fot

os ©

Fra

unho

fer

ISE

© Fraunhofer ISE

5

Photovoltaic Modules, Systems and Reliability

� Reliability monito-ring, testing, simu-lation for solar appl.

� Material and degra-dation analysis

� Testlab PV Modules

Fields of Activity

� Interconnection technology

� Module efficiency and new concepts

� Module Technology Center (Module-TEC)

� Yield simulation

� Module characteris.

� Plant performance verification

� CalLab PV Modules

PV Module Technology Weathering and Reliability

Quality Assurance PV Modules and Systems

© Fraunhofer ISE

6

1. Quality, bankability and investabilityQA from Stakeholder‘s Perspective

PV Power PlantEPC delivers independent,

comprehensive QA

Bank (DSCR, debt

service)

Investor (cash flow, LCOE, ROI,

resale)

Insurance (risk mitigation)

QA: Quality Assurance

DSCR: Debt Service Coverage Ratio

LCOE: Levelized Cost of Energy

ROI: Return on Investment

© Fraunhofer ISE

7

Quality, bankability and investabilityLevelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Quality

yield electric total

cost totalLCOE =

Actualirradiance

(Y1…Yn)

Initial modulepower @ STC

(as installed)

Initial Performance Ratio (PR)

Annual degradation

(power, PR)

Investment O&M Removal

STC: Standard Test Conditions

O&M: Operation and Maintenance

© Fraunhofer ISE

8

Quality, bankability and investabilityQA and Performance

Measured PR for 300 PV plants in 2013 (ISE), blue bars represent new plants with basic initial quality assurance and continuous O&M.

© Fraunhofer ISE

9

Quality, bankability and investabilityModule Degradation and Service Life

3. Module logistics, installation (possible

damage)

1. Module design & materials

(type certificate)

2. Conformity, QA (supply chain & production)

4. System design(shading, string potential,

natural ventil.)

5. Local climate(temperature, UV,

soiling, salt, corrosivity)

Annual degradation rate, service life

(power, safety, appearance)

Module IEC certificates are only the first step!

© Fraunhofer ISE

10

Model calculation for 80% DSCR Investment impact

� -5% electric yield -> -27% cash flow

� +1%abs. annual O&M cost -> -62% cash flow -16% profit over service life

� +0.5%abs. annual degradation -> -8% profit over service life

QA SensitivityQuality, bankability and investability

© Fraunhofer ISE

11

Quality, bankability and investability

Project Development

� Solar ressource assessment

� PR potential assessment

� Environmental stress assessment

*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute

� Module power and energy rating

� Yield assessment

� Technology benchmarking

Engineering

� Performance monitoring

� Performance verification

Operation

� Representative sampling

� Module check

- performance

- reliability

- workmanship

Procurement

QA along Project Phases

� Final power plant test

� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*

Construction& Commiss.

© Fraunhofer ISE

12

Quality, bankability and investability

Project Development

� Solar ressourceassessment

� PR potential assessment

� Environmental stress assessment

*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute

� Final power plant test

� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*

Construction& Commiss.

� Module power and energy rating

� Yield assessment

� Technology benchmarking

Engineering

� Performance monitoring

� Performance verification

Operation

� Representative sampling

� Module check

- performance

- reliability

- workmanship

Procurement

QA along Project Phases

© Fraunhofer ISE

13

2. Project development

� geomodelling based on satellite data and ground measurements

� performance ratio potential assessment and technology benchmarkig

Solar Ressource Assessment

Classification of 100 locations into 12 irradiation regions

© Fraunhofer ISE

14

Project developmentSolar Ressource Assessment: Global Dimming and Brightening

Moving average of the mean GHI anomalies (black) and the trend lines

(red for the dimming period and green for the brightening period)

Müller B, Wild M, Driesse A, Behrens K. Rethinking solar resource assessments in the context of global dimming and brightening. Solar Energy 2014; Volume 99.

© Fraunhofer ISE

15

Project developmentEnvironmental stress assessment: Soiling

E.Klimm, L.Ost, T.Lorenz, M.Köhl, Gleisdorf SOLAR (2014)

© Fraunhofer ISE

16

Project developmentEnvironmental stress assessment: Soiling

J.Hermann, K.Slamova, R.Glaser, M.Köhl, SHC (2013)

SOILING RISK MODEL

© Fraunhofer ISE

17

Project developmentEnvironmental stress assessment: Atmospheric Corrosivity

K.Slamova, R.Glaser, C.Schill, S.Wiesmeier, M.Köhl, J. Photon. Energy. 2(1), (2012)

© Fraunhofer ISE

18

Project Development

� Solar ressource assessment

� PR potential assessment

� Environmental stress assessment

*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute

� Module power and energy rating

� Yield assessment

� Technology benchmarking

Engineering

� Performance monitoring

� Performance verification

Operation

� Representative sampling

� Module check

- performance

- reliability

- workmanship

Procurement

3. Engineering

� Final power plant test

� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*

Construction& Commiss.

© Fraunhofer ISE

19

Module Performance Testing and Energy Rating (IEC 61853)

module temperature (°C)irradiation

(W/m²)15 25 ~47 50 75

1100 X X HTC1000 X STC X X900 X X X X800 X X NOCT X X700 X X X X600 X X X X500 LTC X X400 X X X300 X X X200 X LIC100 X X

I-V curves, standard conditions according toIEC 61853-1.

Table of irradiation and temperature valuesfor power measurements (grey: required by

standard).

3. Engineering

© Fraunhofer ISE

20

EngineeringYield Assessment Report

© Fraunhofer ISE

21

EngineeringPR Loss Analysis: Project examples

© Fraunhofer ISE

22

EngineeringPR prediction uncertainty

Differences between monitored (left) and predicted (right) Performance Ratio (PR) losses

© Fraunhofer ISE

23

Project Development

� Solar ressource assessment

� PR potential assessment

� Environmental stress assessment

*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute

� Module power and energy rating

� Yield assessment

� Technology benchmarking

Engineering

� Performance monitoring

� Performance verification

Operation

� Representative sampling

� Module check

- performance

- reliability

- workmanship

Procurement

4. Procurement

� Final power plant test

� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*

Construction& Commiss.

© Fraunhofer ISE

24

Flash list verification through representative samples

Comparison of manufacturer data with Fraunhofer ISE measurement values

-10

0

10

0 15286

Pm

pp

[±%

]

complete, sorted flash list

representative samples

measurement before LID

measurement after LID

4. Procurement

Jantsch M, Dirnberger D, Neuberger F. Optimized procedures for representative samples from PV module batches. 27th European PVSEC, Frankfurt, 2012.

© Fraunhofer ISE

25

Quality Benchmarking

Definition of criterions, selection of modules

Performance verification and visual inspection

Power rating and reliability testing

supplementary tests

Example | Customized Test Protocol

Ph

ase

2P

ha

se 1

Ph

ase

3O

pti

on

s

Power at STCLight Induced

Degradation

Electrolumines-

cence (EL)

Visual

Inspection

Report with

analysis of the

results

Performance verification

Basic Reliability TestingCharacterization

Power RatingSensitivity to

Cell Cracks (TC)

Potential

Induced Deg.

(PID)

Report with

analysis of the

results

Material TestingEnhanced Reliability Testing

Extreme

Climates

Sensitivity to

Snail-Trails,

Yellowing ...

Ultra-Violet

Light Test (UV)Gel Content Peel test

Sensitivity to

Snail-Trails

(DH, UV)

Visual inspection

Selection of

samples

Definition of

Procedure and

Criterions

Procurement

© Fraunhofer ISE

26

Measurement precisionProcurement

The accredited photovoltaic calibration laboratory „CalLab PV Modules“ has been considered as one of the world‘s leading labs since 1986.

� high precision module measurement capabilities are the basis for procurement QA

� Highly accurate performance measurement (uncertainty ± 1.6%)

� Regular round robin tests with leading labs

© Fraunhofer ISE

27

Project Development

� Solar ressource assessment

� PR potential assessment

� Environmental stress assessment

*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute

� Module power and energy rating

� Yield assessment

� Technology benchmarking

Engineering

� Performance monitoring

� Performance verification

Operation

� Representative sampling

� Module check

- performance

- reliability

- workmanship

Procurement

5. Construction

� Final power plant test

� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*

Construction& Commiss.

© Fraunhofer ISE

28

5. Construction

� On site analysis by experienced team

� Visual assessment for analysis of technical design

� Thermographic imaging (defective modules, faulty contact points)

� PID check

� Performance Ratio (PR) assessment

Final power plant test

© Fraunhofer ISE

29

ConstructionReference Project

� Europe‘s largest Thin Film PV power plant

� 1.5 Mill. First Solar PV modules

� 115 SMA inverters

� EPC: Belectric

� Equity: Commerz Real

� Power Plant Testing: Fraunhofer ISE

128 MW power plant, Templin, Germany

© Fraunhofer ISE

30

ConstructionReference Project

� Stadium Pituacu in Salvador da Bahia equipped for FIFA Worldcup 2014

� Latin America’s first PV stadium, located in Brazil

� Power Plant Testing, scientific support: Fraunhofer ISE

Stadium with 400 kW PV system

1 2

34 5

© Fraunhofer ISE

31

ConstructionVDE-ISE PV Power Plant Certification

Farnung B, Bostock P, Brückner J, Kiefer K. 40th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference , Denver, Colorado, 2014.

© Fraunhofer ISE

32

ConstructionReference Project

� World’s largest single axis tracking PV facility

� 704,160 First Solar PV modules

� EPC: First Solar

� Plant Certification: VDE & Fraunhofer ISE 50 MW, Macho Springs, Luna County, NM, USA

© Fraunhofer ISE

33

Project Development

� Solar ressource assessment

� PR potential assessment

� Environmental stress assessment

*in cooperation with VDE Testing and Certification Institute

� Module power and energy rating

� Yield assessment

� Technology benchmarking

Engineering

� Performance monitoring

� Performance verification

Operation

� Representative sampling

� Module check

- performance

- reliability

- workmanship

Procurement

6. Operation

� Final power plant test

� “Quality Tested” PV plant certifi-cation*

Construction& Commiss.

© Fraunhofer ISE

34

6. OperationPerformance Verification

� High level of measurement accuracy achieved with calibrated sensors (±2%)

� Daily evaluation

� Multi-parameter monitoring for analysis of system and components

� 300 monitoring systems currently in use with detailed web portal, scientific analysis and annual reports

System performance ratio development

© Fraunhofer ISE

35

7. Conclusion

� Quality assurance that is

� independent

� comprehensive

� precise

� provided by experienced staff

… can substantially increase the project value for all stake-holders

… at cost < 0.5% of the total project cost

© Fraunhofer ISE

36

Thank You Very Much for Your Attention!F

otos

© F

raun

hofe

r IS

E

Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE

Harry Wirth

www.ise.fraunhofer.de

[email protected]