HARNESSING YOUTH PARTICIPATION TO OVERCOME MIDDLE INCOME TRAP Haidy Ear-Dupuy ADB’s NGO and Civil Society Center Regional Sustainable Development Department
Feb 24, 2016
HARNESSING YOUTH PARTICIPATION TO OVERCOME MIDDLE INCOME TRAP
Haidy Ear-DupuyADB’s NGO and Civil Society CenterRegional Sustainable Development Department
Structural ChangeMigrationLabor Contribution to Development
ASIA’S 6% GDP FROM 1960-2010
3
1700 1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2003 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Asian Share of Global GDP
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-20100.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Asian Growth Rates
JapanNIC'sChina & India
GDP
Grow
th R
ate
• Asia began to re-emerge after 1950, spurred first by Japan, followed closely by the NICs
• Starting in 1980s, first PRC then India gave further boost
RE-EMERGENCE OF ASIA
• Asia accounted for about 60% of world economy before Industrial Revolution
• In the following two centuries, Asia’s share declined to 15%
• Asia’s share today is 28%
Two scenarios: Asia Century (AC, high case) and
Middle Income Trap (MIT, low case) scenarios.
AC not Preordained: income disparities, environmental challenges, resources limitation, governance, climate changes
ASIA 2050: ASIAN CENTURY
5
Asia; 52%
North America, 13%
Latin America & Caribbean,
10%
Europe; 18%
Sub Saharan Africa; 2%
Middle East & North Africa; 3%
Rest of World, 2%
Converging Asia Scenario: 2050GDP at market exchange rate (Trillion)
World 333Asia 174United States 38
GDP per capita at Constant PPPWorld 37,300Asia 40,800United States 94,900
Per cap incomes similar to Europe today; No poor country.Asian century driven by Asia 7: India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, PRC, Republic of Korea, and Thailand projected to account for 91% of Asia’s growth between 2010-2050.
THE ASIAN CENTURY
More Value Addition and growth with inclusion and equity
•Better skills •Beyond factory to services and knowledge-based
• Deepening interaction and participation—more inclusion
• Connecting economics to governance• Role of the people—youth energy
WHAT’S NEXT FOR MIDDLE INCOME?
YOUTH INCLUSION
YOUTH: A PRECIOUS NATURAL RESOURCE
• Deepening Intergenerational engagement• Better skill-higher value• More interaction with government—Balanced approach to
governance• More responsive governments—supply and demand• Governance matters to youth
• Global Opening Government Survey 2013: 50,000 responses from 61 countries “80% from Mongolia, 82% in Indonesia-want government to be more open”
ASIAN YOUTH CARES ABOUT GOVERNANCE
As countries get richer, their citizens demand a greater say-voice- in defining the country’s goals
6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 110
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
(log) real GDP per capita, 2005
• “The manner in which power is exercised in the management of a country’s social and economic resources for development” (ADB 2000)
• Worldwide Governance Indicators• MDBs give it a high weight (ADB-ADF, World
Bank- IDA) • UN proposing good governance as a post-MDG
target• 2012 survey in 90 countries: People rated it as
top priority after education and health
GOOD GOVERNANCE MATTERS TO GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
ARM
AZE
GEO
KAZ
KGZ
TAJ
TKMUZB
PRC
HKGKOR
MON
TAP
FIJ
KIR
RMIFSM PAL
PNG
SAM
SOLTIMTON
TUVVAN
AFG
BANBHU
IND
MLD
NEP
PAK
SRI BRUCAM
INO
LAO
MAL
MYA
PHISIN
THA
VIE
-2.5
-1.25
0
1.25
2.5Score
6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
Voice
ARM
AZE
GEO
KAZKGZ
TAJ
TKM
UZB
PRC
HKG
KOR
MON
TAP
FIJ
KIR
RMIFSM PAL
PNGSAM
SOLTIM
TON
TUV
VAN
AFG
BAN
BHU
IND MLD
NEP PAK
SRI
BRU
CAMINO
LAO
MAL
MYA
PHI
SIN
THA
VIE
-2.5
-1.25
0
1.25
2.5Score
6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
Regulatory quality
ADB’s Asian Development Outlook 2013
INCOME AND GOVERNANCE DIMENSIONS
ARM
AZEGEO
KAZ
KGZTAJ
TKM
UZB PRC
HKG
KOR
MON
TAP
FIJ
KIR
RMI
FSMPAL
PNG
SAM
SOL
TIM
TON
TUVVAN
AFG
BAN
BHU
IND
MLD
NEP
PAK
SRI
BRU
CAM
INO
LAOMAL
MYAPHI
SIN
THA
VIE
-2.5
-1.25
0
1.25
2.5Score
6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
Political Stability
ARM
AZE
GEO
KAZKGZTAJ
TKMUZB
PRC
HKG
KOR
MON
TAP
FIJ
KIR
RMIFSMPAL
PNG
SAM
SOL
TIM
TONTUV
VAN
AFG
BAN
BHU
IND MLDNEP
PAK
SRI
BRU
CAM
INO
LAO
MAL
MYA
PHI
SIN
THAVIE
-2.5
-1.25
0
1.25
2.5Score
6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
Control of corruption
ARM
AZE
GEO
KAZ
KGZTAJTKMUZB
PRC
HKG
KOR
MON
TAP
FIJ
KIR RMIFSM
PAL
PNG
SAM
SOL
TIM
TON
TUVVAN
AFG
BAN
BHUIND
MLD
NEP PAK
SRI
BRU
CAM
INOLAO
MAL
MYA
PHI
SIN
THAVIE
-2.5
-1.25
0
1.25
2.5Score
6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
Rule of law
ARM
AZE
GEO
KAZ
KGZ
TAJ
TKM
UZB
PRC
HKG
KOR
MON
TAP
FIJKIR
RMI
FSMPAL
PNG
SAM
SOLTIM
TON
TUV
VAN
AFG
BAN
BHU
INDMLD
NEP PAK
SRI
BRU
CAM
INO
LAO
MAL
MYA
PHI
SIN
THA
VIE
-2.5
-1.25
0
1.25
2.5Score
6 8 10 12log GDP per capita,PPP (current international $)
Government effectiveness
INCOME AND VOICE
MIDDLE INCOME AND VOICE
17
Planning
Resourcing
Implementation
Monitoring
Evaluation
Inclusive policy making
Bottom up Budgeting
Citizen’s Report Card
CSO/youth participation
Story telling
MfDR framework
• Citizen’s Voice and Action• Grassroots Budgeting• Participatory Governance• eGovernance
TOOLS FOR ENGAGING WITH YOUTH
GOVERNMENT PARTNERSHIP
• ANSA’s Check My School program/Banthay.PH• Youth’s Philippines Good Governance Summit• National Youth Commission on Grassroot budgeting• ADB’s Asian Youth Forum New Delhi 2013—Youth Debate on
critical policy issues-Kazakhstan 2014• UN Technical working group on youth• Due to the participation of youth in the 5th General Meeting of
Network of Asian River Basin Organizations (NARBO), NARBO is now preparing a new program for young professionals.
• Korea Water Forum 2015 will include youth water organizations—inclusion in policy discussion
ASIAN YOUTH IN ACTION
• Stem and reverse the decline in governance – more than dealing with corruption—develop trust
• More transparent and accountable governance
• Effective decentralization
• Requires strengthening of institutions and building new ones
• Increased voice and participation of citizenry
21
INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND GOVERNANCE
• There is a correlation between wealth and demand for better governance—more efficient and effective
• Knowledge economy requires space for participation• Path for each middle income countries differs, balanced
approach to governance dimensions--contextual • Is MIT a misallocation of Talent and innovation stagnation? Or
is it an economic constraint that needs a social solution? • Young people care about governance—voice and
accountability—How does MfDR consciously support inclusion?
• How do you envision your youth contributing?• What are some of joint government and youth initiatives for
improved services?
CONCLUSION