Harnessing Demographic Dividend: The Future We Want Republik Indonesia Ministry of National Development Planning/ Bappenas – National Population and Family Planning Board/BKKBN Presented at 50th Commission on Population and Development April 5th, 2017
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Harnessing Demographic Dividend: The Future We Want
Republik Indonesia
Ministry of National Development Planning/ Bappenas – National Population and Family Planning Board/BKKBN
Presented at 50th Commission on Population and Development
April 5th, 2017
OUTLINE
1. Current situation
2. Population structural change in Indonesia
3. Harnessing Demographic Dividend
4. Implementation of program
2
Indonesia is facing population structural changes, over the
last 40 years we gained 20 years in life expectancy
3
Indonesia is currently reaping the benefits of the demographic dividend
15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
In thousand people
Male Female Working School Lainnya Indonesia had one of the strongest and
most successful national planning initiatives in the world.
Early 70s program on family planning resulted more than half a reduction of number of children per woman.
Big variations still occur among provinces.
Dependency ratio 49,2% - means Indonesia has the largest working population in the region
Total labor force participation is 61%. Women’s participation is stagnant at less than 50%
Number of elderly (65+) is 13,7 Milliion; 24% of them still working (65+) and 16% of 75+
Total Fertility Rates at National and Selected Provinces, 1971-2015
Papua 2,59 (2015)
Jogjakarta 2,1 (2015)
Number of population 255,1 Million
Life expectancy increased to 70,8 years
Most of population lives in city (53,1% ) Early 1970s: The
start of village based contraceptie
delivery
2015
0
20
40
60
80
65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Elderly Labor Force Participation (%), 2015
Male
Female
Total
4 Sources: Central Statistical Bureau, Supas and SDKI various years
149 MIO 1,103 PEOPLE/KM2
15,3 MIO 28,2 PEOPLE/KM2
55,2 MIO 114,8 PEOPLE/KM2
18,7 MIO 99,2 PEOPLE/KM2
6,9 MIO 13,8 PEOPLE/KM2 9,9 MIO
147 PEOPLE/KM2
Uneven Population Density, Distribution, and Demographic Transition: Some regions are already experiencing an aging population – targeted specific interventions are required for each province
Late transition Below replacement rate TFR,
large share of older population, window of opportunity has
passed
Early transition
Increasing share of children and working population, older
people start to increase
Pre-transition
stagnant declining fertility, later period of window opportunity
Uncertainty to reach the window of opportunity
High fertility, high mortality, low access to education and health,
Sources: 1. Adioetomo, Forthcoming IRSA Book Series on Regional Development No. 15, 2017; 2. Central Statistical Bureau, Supas 2015 5
Per capita Consumption of health by single age, 1993
private health public health
Mortality declining, life expectancy growing: health expenses start to increase. In 2014 Indonesia introduced a National Health Insurance scheme
Indonesia’s health pattern has gradually shifted from communicable to non-communicable diseases
Although it is not as significant as education expenditures, budget allocations for health have increased
Focus on infant mortality rate, improving nutrition, and reproductive health
Inclusion of health indicators into SDGs to promote healthy lifestyles
Promoting healthy and happy elderly populations
Sources: BPS, Bappenas, authors calculation using National Transfers Account 7
y = 5.1845x + 1.3646 R² = 0.0177
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%Nu
mb
er
of
Job
s C
rea
ted
(M
illi
on
)
Economic Growth (%)
Economic Growth vs Number of Jobs Created, 1989-2016
R² = 0.0261
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
Economic Growth (%)
Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate, 1989-2016
With an increasing working age population, we need more quality jobs: the challenge is encouraging collaboration amongst government, private sector , and communities
Indonesia starts to experience growing number in working age population.
In the last five years, there has been an unstable jobs creation, compare to levels of high economic growth
Unemployment rates and number of unemployed declines.
However, there are still more than 32 million workers working less than 35 hours per week
Sources: National Statistics Bureau, Bappenas, various years 8
Indonesia’s economic growth has played an important role in reducing poverty and increasing the populations’ standard of living
Along with high economic growth, especially during 1990’s and early 2000s, there were trends of increasing inequality. The commodity boom in the early 2000 was one of the main causes of the increasing inequality
Jobs created still in favor those in the highest quintile contributing to high income disparity between the richest and the poorest