Harbor Evacuation for TSUNAMIS

Harbor EvacuationHarbor Evacuationfor for

TSUNAMISTSUNAMIS

Joel Curtis Joel Curtis

Warning and Coordination MeteorologistWarning and Coordination Meteorologist

NWS Forecast Office, JuneauNWS Forecast Office, Juneau

AAHPA AAHPA

October 28, 2010October 28, 2010

PurposePurpose

The NWS primary mission is to protect life and The NWS primary mission is to protect life and property from natural hazards, and to enhance property from natural hazards, and to enhance

the welfare and economy of the Nation.the welfare and economy of the Nation.

Raise Awareness of the Threat Raise Awareness of the Threat of Tsunamis and the of Tsunamis and the

Considerations for a Harbor Considerations for a Harbor EvacuationEvacuation

PLAN AHEAD !PLAN AHEAD !

Harbor Evacuation? Harbor Evacuation?

“The life-blood of our communities is in our

harbors.”

State of Tsunami State of Tsunami Prediction & WarningsPrediction & Warnings

•Earthquake Detection – Excellent Earthquake Detection – Excellent

•Tsunami Generated ? – Good Tsunami Generated ? – Good

•Detection / Evaluation – Good as the Detection / Evaluation – Good as the Observations Observations

•Arrival Timing – Very Good (First Wave) Arrival Timing – Very Good (First Wave)

•Wave Height – Fair (Models) Not in the Wave Height – Fair (Models) Not in the Forecast yet Forecast yet

•Inundation Maps – Some Progress Inundation Maps – Some Progress

•Preparedness – NEVER ENOUGH !Preparedness – NEVER ENOUGH !

•Dissemination – Good and Getting Better - Dissemination – Good and Getting Better - “Tsunami Portal”“Tsunami Portal”

Tsunami BehaviorTsunami Behavior

• NOT A SINGLE WAVE – may last for HOURSNOT A SINGLE WAVE – may last for HOURS

• TOTAL WATER COLUMN “ten min. surge”TOTAL WATER COLUMN “ten min. surge”

• Second Wave may biggestSecond Wave may biggest

• WAIT FOR OFFICIAL “ALL CLEAR”WAIT FOR OFFICIAL “ALL CLEAR”

Four new threat levels

•Defined between coastal break

points

Tsunami WARNING ThresholdsTsunami WARNING Thresholds

Magnitudes less than 7.0Magnitudes less than 7.0• Tsunami information statementTsunami information statement

Magnitudes from 7.1 to 7.5Magnitudes from 7.1 to 7.5• WarningWarning for an area within 350km for an area within 350km

either side of the epicenter (e.g., either side of the epicenter (e.g., 700 km warning area)700 km warning area)

Magnitudes 7.6 to 7.8Magnitudes 7.6 to 7.8• WarningWarning for an area within 500km for an area within 500km

either side of the epicenter (e.g., either side of the epicenter (e.g., 1000 km warning area)1000 km warning area)

Magnitudes 7.9 and greaterMagnitudes 7.9 and greater• WarningWarning if wave arrival within 3 if wave arrival within 3

hours travel time from epicenterhours travel time from epicenter– - - WatchWatch if wave within 6 hours travel if wave within 6 hours travel

time from epicentertime from epicenter

Good Friday Alaska Earthquake – 1964Magnitude – 9.2

Good Friday Alaska Earthquake – 1964Magnitude – 9.2

http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/

Crescent City after the Kuril Island

quake / tsunami of 11-15-2006

Dengler et. al.

Santa Cruz harbor, CA - 14 hours after the

Chilean quake 2/27/2010

Potential Advisory Level Damage

Khao Lak : 12-26-200412 m runup

Pago Pago Samoa 9-29-20097 m runup

Potential Warning level damage

How will YOU and your How will YOU and your customers find out?customers find out?

1.1. Emergency Alert System (EAS Radio TV) Emergency Alert System (EAS Radio TV)

2.2. EM Sirens, City Radio, Phone Tree Call-out EM Sirens, City Radio, Phone Tree Call-out

3.3. NOAA Weather Radio Alert NOAA Weather Radio Alert

4.4. Internet Alerts Internet Alerts

5.5. ““Voluntary” Commercial Radio & TVVoluntary” Commercial Radio & TV

6.6. AKWAS “Red Telephone”AKWAS “Red Telephone”

7.7. Amateur Radio Amateur Radio

8.8. Grapevine in Villages Grapevine in Villages

Human PsychologyHuman Psychology

• Research – 3 Independent ConfirmationsResearch – 3 Independent Confirmations

• Takes TIME!Takes TIME!

• NWS uses multiple channelsNWS uses multiple channels

• At this point…NO WAVE HEIGHT FOR At this point…NO WAVE HEIGHT FOR YOUR HARBORYOUR HARBOR

• Warning > 1.0 m Advisory < 1.0 mWarning > 1.0 m Advisory < 1.0 m

The NWS will not advise you what to do…The NWS will not advise you what to do…

SO WHAT HAPPENS?SO WHAT HAPPENS?

New Breakpoints 2010New Breakpoints 2010“Do they mean me?”“Do they mean me?”

DECISIONDECISION

1.1. Independent Confirmation(s) Independent Confirmation(s)

2.2. Evaluate ThreatEvaluate Threat

3.3. Evacuate or NotEvacuate or Not

4.4. Get to Higher Get to Higher

Ground ! ( EM )Ground ! ( EM )

PLAN AHEAD!PLAN AHEAD!

• Role of the HarbormasterRole of the Harbormaster

• Role of the Harbor StaffRole of the Harbor Staff

• Vessel Owners / OperatorsVessel Owners / Operators

• Emergency Manager Emergency Manager

• Police / Fire / USCGPolice / Fire / USCG

It is much better to work this out now than It is much better to work this out now than during the event!during the event!

EvaluateEvaluate

1.1. WARNING, WATCH, or ADVISORY ?WARNING, WATCH, or ADVISORY ?

2.2. ARRIVAL TIME (first wave) ARRIVAL TIME (first wave)

3.3. Proximity to “SAFE” WaterProximity to “SAFE” Water

4.4. Time of DayTime of Day

5.5. WeatherWeather

6.6. Tide Tide

7.7. Other FactorsOther Factors

8.8. HistoryHistory

9.9. Effective Plan Effective Plan

10.10. Practice Practice

More QuestionsMore Questions

• Lines of Authority – Who’s in Charge?Lines of Authority – Who’s in Charge?

• Do your customers know about Tsunamis? Do your customers know about Tsunamis?

• Pros and Cons of Evacuation? Pros and Cons of Evacuation?

• Pros and Cons of NOT Evacuating? Pros and Cons of NOT Evacuating?

• Evacuation Orders by Local Authority Evacuation Orders by Local Authority

The answers are only possible through The answers are only possible through

preparedness planning!preparedness planning!

Plan ConsultantsPlan Consultants1.1. Your Emergency ManagerYour Emergency Manager

2.2. Your LEPCYour LEPC

3.3. USCG USCG

4.4. NWSNWS

5.5. Network of HarbormastersNetwork of Harbormasters

6.6. AK DHS&EMAK DHS&EM

7.7. Most of All: Your ExperienceMost of All: Your Experience

You might need a traffic cop?

Evaluate (cont’d)Evaluate (cont’d)Wave

Direction?Safe

Zones?

8) Plan Considerations8) Plan Considerations

•Owner / Ops Contacts Owner / Ops Contacts

•Time / Dist 50 FATime / Dist 50 FA

•Community Involvement Community Involvement

•Channel / Entrance Channel / Entrance

•Vessel TypesVessel Types

•Boat Launch / RampBoat Launch / Ramp

•Communications (VHF, cell phone lock-up) Communications (VHF, cell phone lock-up)

•Curiosity / Congestion Curiosity / Congestion

•Can you think of many more? Can you think of many more?

Slow, but seaworthy!

Pre-Wave Arrival ChaosPre-Wave Arrival Chaos

9) Practice9) Practice

1.1. Table TopTable Top

2.2. Practical / Drill Practical / Drill

3.3. Monthly Comms TestMonthly Comms Test

50 FA

Tsunami Portal

•Forecasted and observed sea levels at forecast

points

•Well organized travel times and forecast data

•Special product permissions

•Both centers are represented

Chile Chile

CHILE 2/27/10CHILE 2/27/10

West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning CenterWest Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning CenterPalmer AKPalmer AK

907 - 745 - 4212907 - 745 - 4212

http://tsunami.govhttp://tsunami.gov

Tsunami Operations CenterTsunami Operations Center

Director Paul Whitmore

Alaska Region Partners Alaska Region Partners

Office of Response and Restorationa.k.a NOAA HAZMAT

Contacts Contacts Get to know your WCM!Get to know your WCM!

WCATWC: Bill Knight 745 – 4212 WCATWC: Bill Knight 745 – 4212

AK Region: Jeff Osiensky 271 – 5132AK Region: Jeff Osiensky 271 – 5132

Anchorage: Sam Albanese 266 - 5117Anchorage: Sam Albanese 266 - 5117

Fairbanks: John Lingaas 458 - 3712Fairbanks: John Lingaas 458 - 3712

Juneau: Joel Curtis 790 - 6803 Juneau: Joel Curtis 790 - 6803

NWS Commitment!NWS Commitment!We can give you more than the We can give you more than the

forecast!forecast!

1.1. How can we help you better in Operations? How can we help you better in Operations?

2.2. We are Available : Phone, Internet, PersonWe are Available : Phone, Internet, Person

3.3. Preparedness and Mitigation ...Getting ready Preparedness and Mitigation ...Getting ready for the next one makes everyone’s job easier for the next one makes everyone’s job easier during and after the event.during and after the event.

4.4. Science – Meteorology and OceanographyScience – Meteorology and Oceanography

5.5. Forensics – Historical Data and AnalysisForensics – Historical Data and Analysis

6.6. New Products and ServicesNew Products and Services

Above All…Above All…Tell Us What You Need -Tell Us What You Need -

We will work very hard to provide it !We will work very hard to provide it !