OPEN KNOWLEDGE TOOL: OPERATIONS, OUTCOMES, OBSTACLES, OPTIONS IN THE CASE OF REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION-- USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) (ADB R-PATA 7248 – Financed by the Investment Climate Facilitation Fund, established by the Government of Japan) • Hans-Peter Brunner, • Kislaya Prasad • Asian Development Bank • (December 2012) • Disclaimer [ The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank. By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area]
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OPEN KNOWLEDGE TOOL: OPERATIONS, OUTCOMES, OBSTACLES, OPTIONS IN THE CASE OF REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION--
USING GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS) (ADB R-PATA 7248 – Financed by the Investment Climate
Facilitation Fund, established by the Government of Japan)
• Hans-Peter Brunner,
• Kislaya Prasad
• Asian Development Bank
• (December 2012) • Disclaimer [ The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian
Development Bank. By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area]
Presentation overview: • 1) The GIS application needs and
functions – also quick review on work of other development institutions
• 2) Grasping big benefits for the region through soft and hard project investments
• 3) Visualization of 3 simulation scenarios (How to pick up the “big bills left on the sidewalk” Mancur Olson)
• 4) Implications for action (Getting things to openly flow)
investments plus soft border/ ‘behind border’ infrastr.
(orange dots) [By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
1. Visually layering investments on GIS (over district poverty)
2. Aggregating big benefits/outcomes for the region through soft and hard project
investments (Grasping the “big bills left on the sidewalk” Mancur Olson)
2. Agent-Based Model
After study region is divided into “tiles”
We populate tiles with economic agents
Match regional demographics
Allow agents to produce, consume, work, trade, etc.
Match current, or proposed trade infrastructure
Simulate COMPETITIVE economic activity
Track incomes, prices, etc.
Evaluate / prioritize investments in simulations
2. Agent based, economic geography model --Tiles and ‘districts’ overlay
[In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
Percent Increase in Total Volume of Inter-tile Trade Nepal Bhutan Bangladesh India All
Both “hard” and “soft” investments have significant effects on inter-tile trade: the total volume of trade is higher for all countries (although there are differences in magnitude).
Inter-country effects are large: Infrastructure investments lead to net exports that are larger for all countries.
2. Trade flow generation by scenario and country
2. The trade generation iceberg (‘bills on the side-walk’) • $million p.a. • Wilson Otsuki (2007) for all South Asia
• 2643 • • Phase 1 • 3000
• Phase 2 • 4000
3. Visualization of 3 operational simulation scenarios (Plan and invest – or How to pick up the “big bills left on
the sidewalk” Mancur Olson )
3. Prioritizing investments
Simulate the economy with alternative trade infrastructure scenarios
Three specific investment scenarios are considered (detailed above)
(S1) A benchmark scenario with existing, present day transport network only [no new investment]
(S2) Enhancement of existing transport with a set of non- perishable trade-supporting investments only
(S3) Enhancement of existing transport with a full set of perishable and non-perishable investments
S1, District-Level Incomes (click to run movie)
3. Income dynamics (Existing Infrastructure)
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
District-income: Income growth above baseline S1, due to S2 investments (click to run movie)
3. Income differences
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
District-income: Income growth above S2 due to S3 investments (click to run movie)
3. Income differences
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
District-level income growth above baseline from full AfT investment package (click to run movie)
3.Income differences
[By making any designation of, or reference to, a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.]
Both “hard” and “soft” investments are important for welfare
Significant variation is observed across the study region in the benefits from AfT transport and trade investments
Many regions in the economic periphery enjoy dramatic improvement in income from investments
Regions that become well connected due to infrastructure investments gain the most
User fee structure does not significantly affect income growth and levels (but does affect trade flows)
4. Get things to flow
•From locked-up potential
•To shared, green prosperity
4. What next?
General Application Development (see business case)
User friendly interface for web GIS, Run MyCode…
Licensing arrangements
Restricted access arrangements, to satisfy government concerns (sovereign rights, info and legal integrity, commercial confidentiality…)
Partnering to open the application, and to show its potential of combining with open data
How knowledge tool can be made public for use?
Ensure sustained development of data base, and refinement
Open provision of basic data?
Provision of club goods?
4. What next?
From Roadmap Approach to Country Investment
Further development of regional integration indicators with targets, baselines
Further development of project concepts, implementation plan, with strong country ownership
Engage governments in opening up the data and application, while serving specific investment needs of governments and ADB, with legally mandated confidentiality