HAFS Development Activities at AOML Xuejin Zhang 1 , William Ramstrom 1,2 , Andrew Hazelton 1,2 , Ghassan Alaka 1 , Jr., S. G. Gopalakrishnan 1 , & Frank Marks, Jr. 1 AOML 1 & UM/CIMAS 2 Collaborators: NCEP/EMC Hurricane Group (Lead: Avichal Mehra) GFDL Weather and Climate Dynamics Division (Lead: Lucas Harris)
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HAFS Development Activities at AOML
Xuejin Zhang1, William Ramstrom1,2, Andrew Hazelton1,2, Ghassan Alaka1, Jr., S. G. Gopalakrishnan1, & Frank Marks, Jr.1
AOML1 & UM/CIMAS2
Collaborators: NCEP/EMC Hurricane Group (Lead: Avichal Mehra)GFDL Weather and Climate Dynamics Division (Lead: Lucas Harris)
Current Status and Ongoing EffortsCurrent Status● Single moving nest on tile 6 in global domain● Atmospheric prognostic variables shifted● API for shifting surface variables and terrain parameters● Atmospheric diagnostic variables recomputed● C96 and C768 with 3X refinement tested● Code merged in HAFS repository completed● Workflow for moving nest ready● Code optimization in progress
Ongoing Development● Preprocessing high-resolution orography and surface static
fields● Storm tracking algorithm● Merge telescopic and moving nest code into HAFS repository● Data assimilation for moving nest● Physics optimization for variable resolutions● Post-processing and visualization● Track generation for moving nest
HAFS PBL Physics Updates➢ Ongoing evaluation of modified EDMF-TKE continues, using observations and
LES data➢ Set of 2020 hindcasts performed in HAFS-B using Hybrid EDMF to compare with
real-time runs using modified EDMF-TKE➢ MEDMF-TKE tested in a large sample of hafsv0.2a baseline runs for the 2021
version (see results on the next slide)➢ Manuscript submitted (Ping Zhu, FIU lead) documenting the impact of changes in
N2 in the Hybrid-EDMF scheme on PBL structure
HAFS PBL Physics Updates
➢ Modified EDMF-TKE runs shown in blue➢ Large reduction in negative intensity bias
in HAFS-A at Days 3-5➢ Improved intensity skill at most leads➢ Track skill mostly neutral➢ Sample still being finalized
HAFSV0.2A Baseline Physics Tests (2020 TCs) With MEDMF-TKE HAFSV0.1B 2020 Tests Hybrid-EDMF vs. MEDMF-TKE
➢ HAFS-B 2020 used MEDMF-TKE
➢ Ran a set of 2020 cases using Hybrid-EDMF
➢ Very different bias characteristics (high vs. low)
➢ No coupling➢ Inflow structure
leads to more RI in EDMF-TKE
➢ Example shown for Hurricane Zeta
HAFS Post-Processing & Diagnostics● HAFS workflows → Rocoto “hrdgraphics” task has been updated
○ No changes required from the user side○ Recommended that this task be turned on for all 2021 HAFS experiments (ask Gus for help)
● Graphics are created by HRD’s GPLOT software (GitHub)○ Several upgrades and bug fixes have been committed○ Precipitation partitioning by type, structure metrics, potential vorticity maps, etc.
● Graphics publicly available on the AOML Hurricane Model Viewer○ 2020 HAFS graphics will be kept on the site for quick reference
● All HAFS A-Decks will be shared with NHC in near-real-time● Next-gen. graphical production software (Python-based) is in development