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Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine

Lessons Learned  

Dr.  Phillip  A.  Karber  &  Gen.  (ret.)  Vladimir  Zamana  12  April  2015  

Nature  &  Content  of  New  Generation  of  War    9  Elements  of  Hybrid  Combat  

Col.  S.  Chikina  &  A.  Bodganov,  “The  Nature  and  Content  of  the  New  Genera=on  of  War,”  Voyenna  mysl’,  [Military  Thought  in  English  Transla=on],  No.4,  (Oct.  2013)  at  <  hOp://www.eastviewpress.com/Files/MT_FROM%20THE%20CURRENT%20ISSUE_No.4_2013.pdf  >.    

T-­‐90  Tank  Column  near  Luhansk  

Luhansk    Airport  Siege    (Sep  ’14)  

 photos  confirmed    Ba8le  of  Pocket  (Sep  ’14)  

 reports  -­‐  unconfirmed  Debal’tseve  

 Ba8le  of  Pocket  (Feb  ’15)    report  -­‐  unconfirmed  

Donetsk    Airport  Siege  (jan  ‘15)  

 reports  confirmed      Airport  Siege  (Mar  ‘15)  

 reports  confirmed    Breakout  Ba8le  (Mar  ‘15)  

 reports  confirmed  Mariupol  

 Novoazvs’k  &  Sjedove                (Sep  ’14)  

 reports  confimed    Novoazvs’k  (Feb‘15)  

 report  unconfirmed    Novoazvs’k  (Mar  ‘15)  

 reports  confirmed  Ternove  

 Gunnery  Range  (Mar  ‘15)    report  unconfirmed  

T-­‐90  SighPngs  in  Ukraine  

September  ‘14  Jan/Feb  ‘15  March  ‘15  Unconfirmed  Confirmed  

“Russia  Targets  NATO  With  Military  Exercises”  

STRATFOR  MAP  March  2015  

DMITRY  MEDVEDEV  PRIME  MINISTER,  RUSSIAN  FEDERATION  

When  asked  recently  about  the  possibility  of   “SWIFT”   sancGons,   which   would   bar  Russia   from   the   internaGonal   payment  system,  Prime  Minister  Medvedev  warned  that   Moscow’s   response   would   be  “without  limits.”  

MIKHAIL  VANIN  RUSSIAN  AMBASSADOR  TO  DENMARK  

“I   don’t   think   the   Danes   fully   understand   the  consequences  of  what  will  happen  if  Denmark  joins  the  American-­‐led  missile  defence.    If  this  happens,  Danish  war  ships  will  become  targets  for  Russian  atomic  missiles.    …I  want  to  simply  remind   you   that   it   will   cost   you   both   money  and  security.”      

Jyllands-­‐Posten,  March  2015  

Hybrid  Military  Options  produce  Diplomatic  Coercion    

Putin’s$$aim$to$“Protect”$Russians$could$Destabilize$EurAAsia$for$Decades$$AA$if$he$is$not$stopped$in$Ukraine$…$Where?$

Which  Option  Makes  Europe  Safer?