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November 17, 2014 1 Gold Wave Trader
Market Outlook November 17, 2014 Publisher, Jim Curry
Since the prior report from Thursday, Gold saw a correction low
of 1146.00, from there giving way to a sharp rally into late-day
Friday - with the metal running all the way up to a peak of
1192.90. With that, the upward phase of the 10-day cycle has to be
back in force, and the probabilities also favor the upward phase of
the larger 34-day wave to also be in progress. As noted in the
prior outlook, any reversal back below the 1151.50 figure for Gold,
if seen, would favor the downward phase of the 10-day cycle to be
back in force. That was seen in the overnight session on Friday.
Having said that, the sharp reversal higher and the subsequent
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November 17, 2014 2 Gold Wave Trader
break back above the prior 10-day top of 1179.00 now favors the
upward phase of this cycle to be back in progress. In terms of
price, this is not too telling, at least in regards to this 10-day
wave, though it does offer up some information in regards to the
larger 34-day component. With the 10-day cycle reversing to take
out its prior peak, the inference is that the upward phase of the
larger 34-day cycle is in fact in progress. In terms of price, that
should put the 34-day moving average (chart, above) as the next
upside magnet to price. In terms of time, the normal low-end
rallies with this cycle when forming a lower-low have taken around
10 trading days or more before topping, thus implying strength into
November 21-24 or later. With the above said and noted, the minor
cycle low that was projected for the November 18th (plus or minus a
day) timeframe looks to have been made on the early side on Friday,
and with that any new weakness that might be seen into this date
should be favored to hold at or above Fridays 1146.00 bottom. If
correct, a continued rally should be seen into the next
projected
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November 17, 2014 3 Gold Wave Trader
minor cycle top, which is due around the November 24th date
which is also plus or minus a day in either direction. Note how
this tends to line up with the low-end statistical assumptions in
regards to the 34-day time cycle. Stepping back slightly, if the
current strength is able to hold up into the November 24th date,
plus or minus, then the next projected minor cycle bottom would be
due around the early-December period, to be followed by strength
again into what is looking to be the early-January timeframe of
next year. The biggest question is whether our larger low is in
place at the 1130.40 figure. For the bigger picture, as noted in
past outlooks the next larger bottom has been expected to come from
the 154-day cycle. Right now, it is too early to confirm a low in
place with this component, though as noted many times in past weeks
any bottom made in the current timeframe had the potential to
trough the same. If additional strength is seen into November 24th,
and if the next minor cycle bottom (i.e., early-December) is able
to remain above the 1130.40
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November 17, 2014 4 Gold Wave Trader
figure then the probabilities will strongly favor this 154-day
cycle to have bottomed. Going a bit further with the above, there
are a clear 5 (Elliott) waves down from the July peak (chart,
above), which supports the idea of a 154-day cycle bottom already
in place, though this has yet to actually be confirmed with the
cyclic information. Having said that, if the upward phase of this
wave were to be back in force, then, in terms of Elliott-wave, a
rally back to or above the prior wave 4 would be a low-end pattern
expectation, with that wave 4 seen as the 1255.60 swing top. Adding
to the notes above, in looking at the information from the time
cycles on the metal, the normal low-end rallies with the 154-day
wave have been around 12.7% off the bottom, while the average has
actually been closer to the 17-20% range. In other words, if the
1130.40 swing bottom were to end up as the low for this component,
then taking the lowest percentage would suggest a move back to the
1274 figure or better on the next upward phase of this cycle.
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November 17, 2014 5 Gold Wave Trader
For now, the above is speculation at this point, though we are
in the bullish seasonal period for Gold (chart, above); there are
also other technical factors that also support a larger percentage
rally. Even said, for the stepped-back view the current assumption
is that any larger rally phase for the metal coming as the result
of the 154-day wave will, ultimately, end up as a countertrend
affair, meaning it should remain at or below the July, 2014 peak of
1349.30. For the bigger picture, if Gold does remain below the
1349.30 figure into what is looking to be January of next year
(i.e., when another 154-day peak would be due), then the natural
assumption is that lower lows will follow into April or May of next
year, where another bottom with this component would be projected
to materialize. In terms of price, that decline is likely to be in
the range of 15-20% off the top, similar to the action seen on the
most recent downward phase of this cycle. Next report sent Tuesday
evening, between 9-10 pm EST Current open positions: 65% Long GLD
@121.51 (avg price)
Jim Curry The Gold Wave Trader & Forecast
Email: mailto:[email protected] Secondary Email:
[email protected]
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November 17, 2014 6 Gold Wave Trader
Website: goldwavetrader.com On Twitter: @goldwavetrader
Disclaimer - The financial markets are risky. Investing is
risky. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. The
foregoing has been prepared solely for informational purposes and
is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Opinions are based on historical research and data believed
reliable, but there is no guarantee that future results will be
profitable. The methods used to form opinions are highly probable
and as you follow them for some time you can gain confidence in
them. The market can and will do the unexpected, use the sell stops
provided to assist in risk avoidance. Not responsible for errors or
omissions. Copyright 2014, Jim Curry. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part
of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form
whatsoever, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying,
recording, or by any informational storage or retrieval system
without express written, dated and signed permission from Jim
Curry.