1 CASOS (July 2000) A decision process model mixing rational A decision process model mixing rational anticipations and social influences : the example anticipations and social influences : the example of agri-environmental measure adoption in of agri-environmental measure adoption in Breadalbane ESA (Scotland) Breadalbane ESA (Scotland) Guillaume Deffuant, Frédéric Amblard, Nils Ferrand (Cemagref, France) Nigel Gilbert (university of Surrey, UK) Gérard Weisbuch (Ecole Normal Supérieure, France)
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Guillaume Deffuant, Frédéric Amblard, Nils Ferrand (Cemagref, France)
A decision process model mixing rational anticipations and social influences : the example of agri-environmental measure adoption in Breadalbane ESA (Scotland). Guillaume Deffuant, Frédéric Amblard, Nils Ferrand (Cemagref, France) Nigel Gilbert (university of Surrey, UK) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1CASOS (July 2000)
A decision process model mixing rational A decision process model mixing rational anticipations and social influences : the example of anticipations and social influences : the example of
agri-environmental measure adoption in Breadalbane agri-environmental measure adoption in Breadalbane ESA (Scotland)ESA (Scotland)
Guillaume Deffuant, Frédéric Amblard, Nils Ferrand (Cemagref, France)
• Pilot zones from 1986Pilot zones from 1986• Generalised to all Europe in 1992Generalised to all Europe in 1992
CASOS (July 2000)
European projectEuropean project
• First goal : evaluate the model First goal : evaluate the model on the paston the past
+ $$
• Then evaluate prescriptive useThen evaluate prescriptive use
• Breadalbane ESA ScotlandBreadalbane ESA Scotland
CASOS (July 2000)
Breadalbane ESABreadalbane ESA
• 150 farms, mainly 150 farms, mainly sheep, average size : sheep, average size : 650 ha650 ha
• 39 farmers 39 farmers interviewedinterviewed•10 re-interviewed10 re-interviewed•10 interviews with 10 interviews with institutional actorsinstitutional actors
• First ESA : From 1986 to 1992First ESA : From 1986 to 1992• Second ESA : From 1992 to 1999Second ESA : From 1992 to 1999
CASOS (July 2000)
Breadalbane ESA : implementationBreadalbane ESA : implementation
• End 1986 :End 1986 :•Press : first rough Press : first rough description of the description of the measuremeasure•The measure is about The measure is about landscape and landscape and biodiversitybiodiversity
CASOS (July 2000)
Breadalbane ESA : implementationBreadalbane ESA : implementation
• End 1986 :End 1986 :• SAC : contact 10 SAC : contact 10 "leader" farmers and "leader" farmers and promote the measurepromote the measure• More financial More financial information information
CASOS (July 2000)
• March 1987 :March 1987 :• Organisation of the Organisation of the official presentation official presentation meetingmeeting•All farmers invitedAll farmers invited•Participation 50%Participation 50%
Breadalbane ESA : implementationBreadalbane ESA : implementation
CASOS (July 2000)
Breadalbane ESA : implementationBreadalbane ESA : implementation
• The interested farmer calls The interested farmer calls SAC advisorSAC advisor
• SAC advisor comes to the SAC advisor comes to the farm and makes to ecological farm and makes to ecological diagnosisdiagnosis
• The still interested farmer The still interested farmer calls SAC advisorcalls SAC advisor
• The advisor comes to the The advisor comes to the farm and the farm plan is farm and the farm plan is negotiatednegotiated
0
20
40
60
80
100
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
adoption %
• From April 87 to End 92:From April 87 to End 92:
CASOS (July 2000)
The modelThe model
CASOS (July 2000)
The decision model : variablesThe decision model : variables
d
a
-1 +1
• Uncertain anticipations of Uncertain anticipations of impacts (or impressions)impacts (or impressions)
• IncomeIncome
• MotivationsMotivations
• IndependenceIndependence a
d
-1 +1
a
d
-1 +1
• NatureNature
CASOS (July 2000)
The decision model : InteractionsThe decision model : Interactions
Before meetingBefore meeting
F’F
a a’
F F’
a a’a
d
d’
d
After meetingAfter meeting
dd’
CASOS (July 2000)
The decision model : rational The decision model : rational evaluationevaluation
• The impact on income is evaluated "rationally" with the advisor when the farm plan is established
• The calculation of this impact takes into account :– the size of the farm– the level payments– the level of the associated costs
CASOS (July 2000)
The decision model : decision stagesThe decision model : decision stages
• mm..aa < < TT11• Farmer not interested by the measure.