Guanghua Wan Principal Economist

Guanghua Wan Principal Economist

Main Messages • Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in

several aspects• … leading to enormous challenges possibly

including environmental degradation• But urbanization can help!• To ensure a win-win scenario, green urbanization

policies shall exploit unique features of Asia’s urbanization and late comer’s advantage

1980-2010 2010-20400

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Increase in Urban Population in Asia and the Pacific (millions)

Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia India China, People's Rep. ofRest of Asia & Pacific

Incr

ease

in U

rban

Pop

ulati

on (m

illio

n) 1.06 billion1 billion

Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented

Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

China, People's Rep. of

Bhutan

Lao PDR

Indonesia

Viet Nam

Asia and the Pacific

Europe

North America

Latin America and Car-ibbean

1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

Number of Years from about 10% to 50% of Urbanization Rate

10% 49%210 years

9% 51%105 years

12% 51%150 years

11% 51%95 years

12% 50%90 years

12% 54%65 years

10% 52%60 years

10% 51%55 years

11% 51%61 years

Unique feature 1: very fast speed

Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

Unique feature 2: highest densities in the world…

Mumbai

Kolkata

Karach

iLag

os

Shenzh

en

Seoul/I

ncheon

Taipei,C

hina

Chennai

Bogota

Shan

ghaiLim

a

BeijingDelhi

Kinshasa

Manila

Tehran

Jakarta

Tianjin

Bangalore

Ho Chi Minh City

Cairo

Baghdad

Shenyan

g

Hyderabad

São Pau

lo0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Top 25 World's Cities Ranked by Density, 2007

Dens

ity (p

erso

n/m

2)

Asia & the Pacific (17/25)AfricaEurope Latin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North Africa

Source: www.citymayors.com

Unique feature 3: many megacitiesMegacities, 2010

ASIA: 12/23

Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.

Source: UN (2012).

Unique feature 4: low starting base

19501955

19601965

19701975

19801985

19901995

20002005

20102015

20202025

20302035

20402045

20500

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Level of Urbanization by Region (%)

Leve

l of U

rban

izati

on (%

)

52%

43%

67%

63%

Northern America

Europe

Latin America & Caribbean

WORLD

ASIA & PACIFIC

Africa

Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).

Asia Non-Asia0

5

10

15

20

25

12

21

Urban Primacy (%, 2009)

Ratio

of P

opul

ation

in L

arge

st C

ities

ove

r U

rban

Pop

ulati

on (%

)

Unique feature 5: the largest cities are likely to grow bigger

Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).

… thus more and bigger megacities are emerging

Megacities, 2025

ASIA: 21/37

Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.

Source: UN (2012).

Unprecedented urbanization poses enormous challenges already serious

• Growing inequalities

• Rising urban crimes

• Expansion of slums

• Above all, environmental degradation Pollution Vulnerability to flooding

67% of Asian (vs. 11% Non-Asian) cities fail to meet EU air quality standard

Ahw

az

Sana

ndaj

Kerm

ansh

ah

Kanp

ur

Luck

now

Qom

Khor

amab

ad

Al A

in

Kolk

ata

Xini

ng

Farid

abad

Mex

ical

i

Mum

bai

Ilam

Bush

ehr

Jinan

Patn

a

Abu

Dhab

i

Xi'a

n

Qaz

vin

Chen

gdu

Shen

yang

Vara

nasi

Wuh

an

Shiji

azhu

ang

Kars

Arak

Tian

jin

Deni

zli

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400 Cities with PM10 above 100 ug/m3 (2008-2009)

PM10

Leve

l (m

icro

gram

s/cu

bic m

eter

) Asia and the Pacific (34/57)Non-Asia and the Pacific

EU standard

Source: WHO (2012).

Asia Non-Asia0

102030405060708090

100 97%

18%

Growth of Per Capita CO2 Emissions over 2000-2008 (%)

CO2 emissions grow fast in Asia

Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

… and three of the top five CO2 emitting economies are in Asia.

China, People's Rep. of

United States India Russian Feder-ation

Japan0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

Top 5 Countries in terms of CO2 Emissions

CO2

emis

sion

s (kt

)

Environment may degrade further with growth

Asia’s Environmental Kuznets Curve

05

1015

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(tons

/cap

ita)

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000GDP per capita (in 2005 PPP)

2010=$6,107 Peak=$40,9712010=$6,107 Peak=$40,971

Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

CO2 emissions may triple under the business-as-usual scenario

2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

2

4

6

8

10

12

3.4 3.5

5.6

7.6

9.310.2

Projected CO2 emissions based on latest EKC

CO2

emis

sion

s (to

ns/c

apita

)

Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).

Asia is more vulnerable to coastal flooding

Urban population

at Risk (million)

Share of Population at

Risk (%)

Urban Area at Risk

('000 km2)

Share of Area at

Risk (%)

Africa 32 11 18 6

Asia and Pacific 251 18 129 11

Latin America 24 8 42 6

Europe 40 7 56 7

Risk of Coastal Flooding by Region, 2000

Source: ADB estimates based on McGranahan et al. 2007.

Coastal flooding is clustered in PRC, South & Southeast Asia: Top 15 cities, 2000

Country CityPopulation at risk (%)

Population at risk ('000)

City Area at risk (km2)

Area at risk (%)

PRC Tianjin 100.0 5,500 2081 100.0PRC Panjin 100.0 1,000 690 100.0Bangladesh Khulna 99.9 1,100 394 99.8PRC Nantong 99.8 1,000 286 99.9PRC Changzhou 99.0 2,000 362 99.0PRC Jiangyin 96.8 1,200 492 96.8PRC Suzhou 95.8 1,300 368 91.2Indonesia Palembang 94.2 1,300 473 89.5Thailand Bangkok 93.3 8,800 4805 80.2PRC Wuxi 91.1 1,300 397 91.0PRC Shanghai 90.8 14,000 2416 98.2India Kolkata 89.0 14,000 1441 62.9PRC Ningbo 85.6 1,700 779 85.6Indonesia Ujung Pandang 85.4 1,200 295 68.7Viet Nam Ho Chi Minh 79.3 4,400 890 72.6Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

Inland flooding is also serious: Top 15 cities, 2000

Country CityPopulation at risk (%)

Population at risk ('000)

City Area at risk (km2)

Area at risk (%)

Cambodia Phnom Penh 99.0 988 204 99.0PRC Wuhan 82.0 5300 956 82.0Indonesia Palembang 80.0 1100 257 49.0India Patna 72.0 1100 436 72.0Bangladesh Dhaka 60.0 5400 680 48.0PRC Nanjing 56.0 2200 749 56.0Vietnam Ho Chi Minh 50.0 2800 306 25.0PRC Tianjin 50.0 2800 795 38.0PRC Huangshi 50.0 624 170 45.0PRC Huainan 50.0 614 277 49.0PRC Wuhu 47.0 552 140 48.0Thailand Bangkok 46.0 4400 2165 36.0PRC Bangbu 44.0 510 198 44.0India Guwahati 44.0 507 159 35.0India Allahabad 42.0 665 230 43.0

Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

Vulnerability will rise with urbanization

2010 20250

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

154 198

63

92 83

115

3

4

East Asia South Asia

Popu

latio

n at

Risk

(mill

ion)

Coastal Flooding

410 M

303 M

2010 20250

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

141 192

63

91 33

46

8

11

Southeast Asia Central and West Asia

Inland Flooding

341 M

245 M

Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).

Unique features of Asian urbanization make challenges more serious...

• Low level = a long way to go

• Fast speed = little time to adjust or learn

• More & bigger megacities = hard to manage

• More slums = higher vulnerability

But, urban agglomeration can help• Service sector pollutes less

• Manufacturers relocate

• Efficient provision of infrastructure and services

• Better quality of life

• Innovation and higher labor productivity

• Nurture property owners and middle clss

• And ...

The growth/composition/technical impacts of urbanization on environment

The growth impact may be negative

The composition effect is positive

Technical effect is also positive

Most importantly, Asia as a late comer can

leapfrog R&D and technology

… and for adopting regulations timely

Environment-Urbanization relation has improved over time

1020

3040

5060

PM

10 L

evel (u

g/m

3)

0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)

pm10hat1_u pm10hat2_u

01

23

CO2

emission

s (m

t/cap

ita)

0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)

co2hat1_u 2000s

1990s

2000s

1990s

2000s

CO2PM10

Environment-Urbanization Curves

Source: ADB estimates.

Green urbanization can help shift the curves further

• Unique patterns of urbanization lead to megacities with satellite cities: ToD, BRT, green/compact/eco- cities concepts

• Exploit late comer advantage: import or R&D, smart grid, circular economy, clean energy, ….

• Timely introduction of regulations, and better financing and transparency: pollution/emission pricing, carbon tax or cap & trade, reduce subsidies, increased block tariffs, …

Conclusions

• It is counter-productive to contain urbanization, even for environmental concerns

• But, urbanization must be steered into a green path that exploits own unique features

• Asia can achieve green urbanization!

Thank Youwww.adb.org